Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Knightmare]

Knightmare - I see you've got Reece McKenzie now at Pick 5 to the Doggies in your PD, what's your reasoning behind it?

McKenzie as a second round selection is a long bow to draw, but having pick five overall? Don't get me wrong, he's a prospect but he is that raw and in particular has still so much to work on. Let's not get carried away with the bags of 10 (non existent Eastern side that didn't have Petracca, Nielson etc) and 7 against the Northern Territory. He hasn't been able to make a mark on the better full backs IMO. How far he's truly come will be on show against at full-strength Calder team. He'll probably wipe the floor with Bendigo this week, but that's just my point. He's got plenty of room for improvement, more of a mid-draft selection I believe.

McKenzie probably doesn't go as high as five and I concede at this point he's more a consensus early second rounder at this point.

What I'm liking is the way his numbers are trending upward. Also his scoreboard impact outside of McCartin is probably that next best in this draft class. It's unclear outside of McCartin if there is anyone else in this draft with the capability of going off and hitting the scoreboard like McKenzie is starting to show he can. He's a good height, has excellent size, strong contested mark.
In addition to his 7 v NT (they're small) and 10 v Eastern (they're lousy this season) he also had his 16 for Marcellin v Yarra Valley.

My rating of McKenzie is still floating. He may not remain so high on my draft board in as high in my phantom draft. I'm with McKenzie watching for that continued upward trending production. If he continues with it in the final weeks of the season I'm really optimistic about his future. He's got the right height/size/mix of attributes but outside of that I measure upside on the most part based on whether they're trending upward and McKenzie really is which to me suggests plenty of future improvement.

He's one I'll be watching and completing my evaluation on in these final rounds in the season but ask me today, I like him and the way he's tracking.

Knightmare, what are your thoughts on Brenton Payne? I don't know how he is travelling at the Jets, but I saw him in the Herald Sun Shield Grand Final and he showed plenty imo.

Tall forward who doesn't have key position size. Played well a few weeks back v NSW and performed strongly in one or two of the u18 champs games which will put him on the draft radars of some.

He has an opportunity to get drafted mid-late draft.

Knightmare why do you see Brisbane drafting Brayshaw he's very much like Redden and Rockliff we need a line breaking midfielder with pace like a Dangerfield type

Have Brayshaw to Brisbane on a best available basis.

Brisbane can always trade down the draft to a Pickett or Ahern but early draft the best availables are talls and a small selection of midfielders.

hey Knightmare, i see you now have crows picking up paul ahern with their first pick. can you please give some more information about him and why he has suddenly risen to a high selection. must have had a good carnival! also would adelaide not be looking to get the best key defender on offer as we are severely lacking a centre half back who can kick even reasonably well. cheers

I've had Ahern around that pick 10 for the past couple of months now. He's a damaging player. He's got some linebreaking ability and can burst through traffic. Can do damage by foot and has that decision making/vision combo. Strong overhead. Capable contested ball winner. Can hit the scoreboard. I'd like to see him find more ball more consistently but the signs are there that he's got a real career ahead.

Key defenders possible in the first round very possible. Just depends on whether Adelaide prefer Lever/Marchbank or perhaps Ahern/Pickett/Laverde if looking for some more damaging outside guys.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, just wanted to say I love your work. Quick question though while I am here ;-)

How do you think this draft compares to the drafts of the past 2-3 years talent wise?

It's a great draft for key position players. Just the sheer depth of likely AFL quality options is the best we've seen since 2006.

Depth ok but below average. Probably not unlike last year in that regard.

Comparing drafts is more something that is done in hindsight with the rising and falling of players. The past 2-3 years from an overall quality standpoint are in the most part much of a muchness but with their different quirks. Pretty much your normal drafts. Not super drafts but not terrible either and this year also fits with that trend.

 

[Shoota Welsh]

Would have thought Talia is a pretty good CHB or do you see him playing at Full-back

well he is a top defender but has questionable ball use. will always take the best forward but we need a second defender preferably with a better kick like taylor (therefore lever would be best IMO)

 

[Shoota Welsh]

I've had Ahern around that pick 10 for the past couple of months now. He's a damaging player. He's got some linebreaking ability and can burst through traffic. Can do damage by foot and has that decision making/vision combo. Strong overhead. Capable contested ball winner. Can hit the scoreboard. I'd like to see him find more ball more consistently but the signs are there that he's got a real career ahead.

Key defenders possible in the first round very possible. Just depends on whether Adelaide prefer Lever/Marchbank or perhaps Ahern/Pickett/Laverde if looking for some more damaging outside guys.

our two greatest deficiencies are certainly a key defender and a winger, but i think a top quality defender is more important. could pick someone pretty decent up second round or through trading on the outside although ahern does look like a good fit for the club now you mention it! only thing is that a key position player taken outside of the first round is always going to be a risk and we need someone there ASAP.

 

[Knightmare]

our two greatest deficiencies are certainly a key defender and a winger, but i think a top quality defender is more important. could pick someone pretty decent up second round or through trading on the outside although ahern does look like a good fit for the club now you mention it! only thing is that a key position player taken outside of the first round is always going to be a risk and we need someone there ASAP.

If needing an immediate key defender trading is the way to go.

Even key defenders taken in the first round aren't ready to go. They need those couple of years to make the adjustment and no key defender in this drafts looks ready to play right away.

 

[tigs2010]

Hey Knightmare can you give me your thoughts on Tom Templeton?

 

[blueiris]

well he is a top defender but has questionable ball use. will always take the best forward but we need a second defender preferably with a better kick like taylor (therefore lever would be best IMO)

Do you think you guys would be looking at James Frawley

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare can you give me your thoughts on Tom Templeton?

Good tac cup mid. Has some versatility and has done well to hit the scoreboard some.

May be an outside chance as a rookie.

 

[tigs2010]

Good tac cup mid. Has some versatility and has done well to hit the scoreboard some.

May be an outside chance as a rookie.

Good skills?

 

[Knightmare]

Good skills?

Skills/decision making/vision below average. In traffic very rushed with ball in hand. Execute better given the time and space.

 

[Phil85]

Hi KM, really appreciate all the work your doing in regards to this years potential draftee's.

Noticed you have the Dee's selecting Wright with pick 4, as opposed to Brayshaw.
Am just wondering why the change of mind? Especially considering Roos' love for big-bodied midfielders and already having developing key forwards in Hogan and Gawn.

Also it's likely we'll also receive pick 4 if Frawley leaves which most people are under the impression he will. Having said that who do you think we'd select with our that pick? Wright and Brayshaw?

 

[blueiris]

Hi KM, really appreciate all the work your doing in regards to this years potential draftee's.

Noticed you have the Dee's selecting Wright with pick 4, as opposed to Brayshaw.
Am just wondering why the change of mind? Especially considering Roos' love for big-bodied midfielders and already having developing key forwards in Hogan and Gawn.

Also it's likely we'll also receive pick 4 if Frawley leaves which most people are under the impression he will. Having said that who do you think we'd select with our that pick? Wright and Brayshaw?

You don't have pick 4 at the moment that's Brisbane's pick

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM, really appreciate all the work your doing in regards to this years potential draftee's.

Noticed you have the Dee's selecting Wright with pick 4, as opposed to Brayshaw.
Am just wondering why the change of mind? Especially considering Roos' love for big-bodied midfielders and already having developing key forwards in Hogan and Gawn.

Also it's likely we'll also receive pick 4 if Frawley leaves which most people are under the impression he will. Having said that who do you think we'd select with our that pick? Wright and Brayshaw?

I have Melbourne with pick 3.

Brayshaw is a possible selection and likely that other option other than Wright but I favour Wright's talent and I sense clubs also favour Wright's talent slightly.

Always room for good size on any team and with Clark gone Melbourne could use Wright.

If a compensation selection happens it's unclear whether it happens directly after Melbourne's first pick. It may be, but it may under the compensation formula it's not there to give the full value back for the player lost so I wouldn't be counting on it.

In that scenario Melbourne have picks 3 and 4 Wright and Brayshaw is the logical combination.

Hard to see Melbourne finishing above Brisbane who are +2 wins ahead of Melbourne.

 

[Shoota Welsh]

Do you think you guys would be looking at James Frawley

think we were earlier but no chance we will pay 700k or give him a 100 year contract or whatever he wants when we have to re-sign sloane, dangerfield, tex, douglas. also i think frawley is only looking to move to another melbourne club.

 

[manny100]

I have Melbourne with pick 3.

Brayshaw is a possible selection and likely that other option other than Wright but I favour Wright's talent and I sense clubs also favour Wright's talent slightly.

Always room for good size on any team and with Clark gone Melbourne could use Wright.

If a compensation selection happens it's unclear whether it happens directly after Melbourne's first pick. It may be, but it may under the compensation formula it's not there to give the full value back for the player lost so I wouldn't be counting on it.

In that scenario Melbourne have picks 3 and 4 Wright and Brayshaw is the logical combination.

Hard to see Melbourne finishing above Brisbane who are +2 wins ahead of Melbourne.

I agree, compensation picks under FA are just compensation as opposed to fair compensation. For the lower clubs a pick works out more valuable.
Roos has said that the club is desperate to build the midfield further arguing that elite mids distribute well, kick goals and create goals. He also said Clark was arguably the clubs best player. Also mentioned that the club had discussed scenarios if Frawley decides to leave under FA. They would know what Frawley is asking and would have a fair idea what pick they would get. He also said some players had been so damaged by previous administrations that they may never recover. I would suggest a submission for a priority pick is being prepared as we speak - the seeds are being sewn. 9 or 10 wins in 3 seasons with a premier coach this season should get one. If not a priority will probably never be awarded again - and that is ok as long as the same standards are applied each year. In this 18 team competition the gap between the lowest and highest is massive.
Anyway I agree Wright would be a better pick that Brayshaw simply because he is rated higher - also being mobile has the potential to be another midfielder like Cox a goal kicker like Tippett and a capable ruck. Good tall forwards make ordinary distribution look better and lousy forwards make good mid distribution look ordinary.

 

[blueiris]

If Melbourne gets a pick right after their first it would be unfair to Brisbane who are trying to rebuild just as much as Melbourne. Considering there is only 4 good players in this draft after that it falls away a little

 

[RUNVS]

If Melbourne gets a pick right after their first it would be unfair to Brisbane who are trying to rebuild just as much as Melbourne. Considering there is only 4 good players in this draft after that it falls away a little

4 good players is probably not an accurate statement.

 

[Demon 16]

Hi KM, I see you've moved Billy Stretch up to Melbournes second round pick, rather than their third.

That's promising - what have you seen, or what has altered your thoughts recently on that?

 

[kaistar]

Heard rumours that collingwood are really big on Petracca growing up was a pies supporter! Any logic on that?

 

[eth-dog]

Heard rumours that collingwood are really big on Petracca growing up was a pies supporter! Any logic on that?

So what are you giving St. Kilda to get pick 1?

 

[kaistar]

I reckon saints will take Mccartin 1.

 

[eth-dog]

I reckon saints will take Mccartin 1.

Missing the point. He's going to go top 3; you have to trade someone like Beams out to get him

 

[kaistar]

If we get Frawley trade a package to Gws including brown Keefe Blair and a few other experienced players for there pick.

 

[Skippos]

If we get Frawley trade a package to Gws including brown Keefe Blair and a few other experienced players for there pick.

I'm sure GWS would love to take on board some relative depth for a highly valued pick. Especially with their list size restrictions, taking quantity for quality sounds like a fantastic idea!

 

[kaistar]

If we get Frawley trade a package to Gws including brown Keefe Blair and a few other experienced players for there pick.