Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[Alite]

Cheers for the reply Gollo. I appreciate your point of view.
What is your source for the amount of cartilage in Burton's knee? I have been looking for info on it but been able to find any reference.

 

[Alite]

You might have to review Geelong with Menegola.

Good concept behind what you're doing. I haven't reviewed for accuracy but one that sticks out at me is Geelong who picked Menegola (who was 44 in my power rankings).

The numbers of those from my top 45 probably in looking back at the draft are the most relevant and interesting overall with my top 45 ranked players all drafted.

Thanks KM, I have corrected the oversight.
I have a modified version of the stats that were posted, though based on 2015 being a shallow pool. I decided not to post it as it was too difficult to explain. My numbers say that pick 47 should have been worth 16 points and pick 48 zero points, instead of pick 73 being worth 9 points and 74 being zero. This seems to align well with your 45 preferred picks.
Note: I got my numbers during the trade period... long before the draft and completely unaware of the depth of the talent pool. In essence, I got my numbers from the recruiters.

 

[Alite]

Be more convincing if you had a higher strike-rate on the names, seriously, that's six guys and only one of them is correct.

Thompson is in the latter stages of his career, Tarrant has a history of injury problems, Durdin and Nielson are untested (and Durds might not be a KPD), Hansen is not really a genuine KPD, and Tippett has little to no AFL experience. I'm not saying we desperately needed another KPD but it's not like it would've been ridiculous for us to take one. Heck for all we know young Ben might become one.

My strike-rate on names and positions was fine. North have six potential KPBs (5 if you must discount Hanson) and that should be enough. It is many more than West Coast had availabe. But I'll bow to your knowledge of your team. By the sounds of what you are saying North need to give Durden, Nielson and Tippet game-time or delist them.

 

[Gollo]

Cheers for the reply Gollo. I appreciate your point of view.
What is your source for the amount of cartilage in Burton's knee? I have been looking for info on it but been able to find any reference.

The 'Going Places' report on Burton and sourced rumours in the Bulldogs forum. Also, given the procedure he undertook it's pretty logical that his knee is going to be pretty banged up for a while, and that cartilage would need to be removed to let the knee heal.

 

[Balony_pony16]

Have you done a DT/SC ranking or write up yet Knight? Keen for both normal DT/SC and for keepers leagues as well. Interested to see how you see the players and the club they got drafted too etc

 

[Knightmare]

Have you done a DT/SC ranking or write up yet Knight? Keen for both normal DT/SC and for keepers leagues as well. Interested to see how you see the players and the club they got drafted too etc

Christian Petracca having not played last year would be a wise choice to start with if minimum or near minimum priced.

For normal dt/sc stay away from first round selections would be my recommendation and go with the mature agers or at least overagers in the most part with a few exceptions for other cheapies who can play and score well.

Jade Gresham for St Kilda is a possible. Keays for Brisbane. Mitch Hibberd if he plays and is defence eligible. Joshua Schoenfeld if he looks like he will get chances for GC is a consideration. Marcus Adams for the Dogs as a key defender may get some games and is a worthwhile consideration. Rhys Mathieson for Brisbane is a maybe depending on how keen Brisbane are to introduce youth. Bailey Rice if he gets games for the Saints is a maybe is eligible as a back. Mitch Brown (Essendon) should get games with Carlisle gone and makes a lot of sense if minimum priced. Sam Collins for Fremantle as a key defender may receive some opportunities with McPharlin retired. Tom Phillips for Collingwood I really like and feel can play some senior games next year and score well if he gets the opportunity. Shane Yarran and Rupert Wills are two others to note though I'm not looking at either seriously with Yarran unimpressive even if he gets games and Wills high unlikely to receive senior games given the strength and depth of Collingwood's midfield. Sam Menegola if he plays would be a strong selection from Geelong. Nathan Broad for Richmond can probably play some games and is worth strong consideration as a tall running back flanker. Michael Hartley if he gets games is another possible as a key defender. Matthew Hayball is worth watching from Geelong.

Of the rookie selections Tom Keough may receive some opportunities down back from Gold Coast. Josh Wagner for Melbourne as a back flanker looks like a good bet. Paul Hunter as a mature ruckman is a maybe if Jacobs gets hurt, though no guarantee with O'Brien developing reasonably well last year. Andrew Galluci as a small forward for Carlton is probably worth getting onto given a relative lack of options. Anthony Tipungwuti for Essendon while he probably won't score highly is worth consideration if minimum priced and playing at some point. Josh Smith for Collingwood if he plays at some point is a consideration. Daniel Lloyd from GWS if he plays. Jonathon Beech for Adelaide as a tall forward flanker is a worthwhile consideration if he plays. Ryan Davis from Gold Coast if he gets games would be a worthwhile selection. Tom Ruggles from Geelong VFL is a consideration if he plays. Cameron Loersch if Gold Coast need another ruck/fwd could be a consideration depending on where Peter Wright is at with his development.

At this time of year until they start playing through the NAB Cup/Challenge or whatever it's called next year, you need to see them play to get a feel for where they may sit on a club list. But these are the names I'd say to certainly watch through the preseason and listen/watch out for.

--
As for your keepers game. Going largely as per my power rankings is the way to go about that, with a leaning away from the talls in my power rankings, and a leaning towards many of those mature agers I listed above.

Of those mature agers for a keepers type game Yarran, Wills, Lloyd, Smith, Hunter, Loersch and Tipungwuti are those I'd be inclined to lean away from and probably relatively the same in regular SC/DT.

 

[iBeng]

Keays and Rhys will be rookies for me, without much after thought.

 

[Knightmare]

Keays and Rhys will be rookies for me, without much after thought.

If they get opportunities they can be good gets. But that will be the question.

Can Mathieson really get regular midfield opportunities? I think it probably is more a case of he may get some chances but the midfield is probably overall too deep. It's more for me if he plays he can probably score pretty well given his junior production. Keays given he is so great forward of centre I'd anticipate receives relatively more opportunities. But it's an unknown until we see how keen Brisbane are to inject these guys into the team early season.

 

[Trav 20]

I don't think Oliver has the size and strength to play that Wines, Cripps role and he doesn't seem to me to have the running ability of other mids like Boak, Selwood, B.Crouch etc.

I think Hopper looks to have the size and strength to play the Cripps, Wines role and I think a youngster like Brayshaw has the running game to play the Boak, Selwood, role. I just don't see where Oliver's advantage is to become a prime mover.

A powerful inside midfielder who was also deployed as a dangerous marking forward, Murray Bushrangers coach Darren Ogier said there wasn’t a player who could compete with Oliver’s strength over the ball.

“He took the competition apart,” Ogier said.

“There was no one who could match Clayton for strength — not even (strong GWS on-baller) Jacob Hopper.”

 

[M Malice]

hey KM. how early do you do your 2016 draft probable top 10/20/30?

 

[stringertheking]

KM, Sorry if this has been asked before but if you did a top 10 for the 2016 draft what would it be?

 

[Knightmare]

Given the 2016 draft questions.

To get the ball rolling and to generate discussion I'll do a quick first round.
1. Carlton - Jonty Scharenberg (SA - MID)
2. Essendon - Will Brodie (VIC - MID)
3. Brisbane - Ben Ainsworth (VIC - FWD)
4. Gold Coast - Sam Petrevski-Seton (WA - MID)
5. Adelaide - Jy Simpkin (VIC - MID)
6. Melbourne - Jarrod Berry (VIC - DEF)
7. St Kilda - Jordan Gallucci (VIC - MID)
8. North Melbourne - Luke Strandica (WA - KPF/RUCK)
9. GWS - Sam Powell-Pepper (WA - UTIL)
10. Geelong - Josh Rotham (WA - DEF)
11. Sydney - Harrison Macraedie (NSW/ACT - GWS ACADEMY - KPD)
12. Port Adelaide - Jacob Allison (QLD - BRISBANE ACADEMY - MID)
13. Western Bulldogs - Jack Bowes (QLD - GOLD COAST ACADEMY - MID)
14. GWS (via Collingwood) Jeremy Goddard (WA - RUCK)
15. Richmond - Brandon Parfitt (NT - FWD)
16. Fremantle - Sam McLarty (VIC - KPD)
17. Hawthorn - Alex Witherden (VIC - DEF)
18. West Coast - Cameron Zurhaar (WA - FWD)

As I do every year I go with my own ladder prediction because it's just more fun that way. I've also intentionally left the academy players unmatched to offer a feel for where I see them fitting at the present time.
--
The basics you'll want to know. It's a midfielders draft. Strength and depth of draft overall looks moderate at this stage. Probably overall lacking the star key position players but that doesn't mean they won't develop over the offseason or next season.

Who has sold me personally? Ben Ainsworth is that only player who today looks like someone who could step into an AFL squad tomorrow and produce (as like the Jamie Elliott equivalent in this draft class). Other than Ainsworth everyone else in my eyes will need to show me what they've got, even though the signs of some of those top end guys such as - Schareberg, Brodie, Petrevski-Seton, Simpkin and Berry particularly look promising a year out. But other than Ainsworth who I expect to remain pretty much around the top five mark, I'm sure next year the names will as always move around substantially from this early prediction.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I'd be pretty upset with a Jamie Elliot type at 3 - hope the draft is better than that

 

[Trav 20]

Ben Ainsworth is that only player who today looks like someone who could step into an AFL squad tomorrow and produce (as like the Jamie Elliott equivalent in this draft class).

Apparently he's been training very well at Melbourne this week. Except when he tried to sell some candy...

The highlight of the session was in a handball drill where it became 5 v 2 at the end to weave through handball to a trainer, young Ben Ainsworth (who's usually all class) sold too much candy and stalled momentum leading to the ball movement breaking down. I think it was Ben Matthews who yelled to him "Benny if you to sell candy then f off to the candy shop".

 

[M Malice]

thanks KM, i see your tipping another hawthorn v west coast GF, with an eagles victory. carlton to go back to back for the spoon and the big improver to be GWS, and adelaide to be the slider.
thank you for your insight.

 

[Knightmare]

thanks KM, i see your tipping another hawthorn v west coast GF, with an eagles victory. carlton to go back to back for the spoon and the big improver to be GWS, and adelaide to be the slider.
thank you for your insight.

4 premierships in a row just feels too hard in today's AFL (though I concede as a Pies fan I am overprotective of the clubs 4 consecutive flag record). Hawthorn without Lake are weaker, then Suckling, Simpkin, Hale and Anderson have all been lost, which with ageing list guarantees nothing. But they've still got chances if they have a healthy season.

West Coast with Eric McKenzie back and Lewis Jetta added assuming natural improvement continues are one of several teams with chances to go all the way and for now they're my early tip.

Carlton is hard not to have dead last. Losing Bell, Carrazzo, Henderson, Judd, Menzel and Yarran. They've lost half of their better players in one offseason without adding anyone who projects to have a substantial immediate impact. Kerridge maybe? It's going to be a rough few seasons with the talent outside of Cripps and a young Weitering, Murphy and Gibbs just not there.

GWS I have in much the same position as last year as a team I have at this point in time again missing the top 8. They've a team that live and die by the play of Shane Mumford, and if Mumford is hurt. GWS just aren't that good. If Mumford plays close to all 22 games then GWS may have top 4 chances, but I just don't trust his body knowing his history of games missed every season.

Adelaide without Dangerfield I think will struggle, and with all the emotions of last year I feel that may also take a toll on the team (I speculate). Their slipping is more a case of I wanted to give St Kilda and Melbourne a touch more credit and move them a few more positions away from the bottom as I see them being not top 8 but still competitive enough.

I'd be pretty upset with a Jamie Elliot type at 3 - hope the draft is better than that

Is Elliott so bad compared to Lachie Plowman or Sam Day? If you go through the years Elliott could be argued as being better than around half of those selected at pick 3.

In saying that I anticipate Ainsworth probably goes closer to pick 5-6 on draft day. I'm just yet to see anyone take that draft position away from him yet which is why I credit Ainsworth.

And with smalls early days they'll often be rated more highly on performance, because their games consistently are more advanced earlier, with those taller types catching up later.

Not many in any year at this stage look like a walkup starts for a team so it's more a compliment to Ainsworth than a knock against the 2016 draft class.

 

[grants guns]

What has Berry's kicking like been in games? From watching Richmond train, his kicking was very poor, poor technique and couldn't hit a target

 

[blueiris]

Given the 2016 draft questions.

To get the ball rolling and to generate discussion I'll do a quick first round.
1. Carlton - Jonty Scharenberg (SA - MID)
2. Essendon - Will Brodie (VIC - MID)
3. Brisbane - Ben Ainsworth (VIC - FWD)
4. Gold Coast - Sam Petrevski-Seton (WA - MID)
5. Adelaide - Jy Simpkin (VIC - MID)
6. Melbourne - Jarrod Berry (VIC - DEF)
7. St Kilda - Jordan Gallucci (VIC - MID)
8. North Melbourne - Luke Strandica (WA - KPF/RUCK)
9. GWS - Sam Powell-Pepper (WA - UTIL)
10. Geelong - Josh Rotham (WA - DEF)
11. Sydney - Harrison Macraedie (NSW/ACT - GWS ACADEMY - KPD)
12. Port Adelaide - Jacob Allison (QLD - BRISBANE ACADEMY - MID)
13. Western Bulldogs - Jack Bowes (QLD - GOLD COAST ACADEMY - MID)
14. GWS (via Collingwood) Jeremy Goddard (WA - RUCK)
15. Richmond - Brandon Parfitt (NT - FWD)
16. Fremantle - Sam McLarty (VIC - KPD)
17. Hawthorn - Alex Witherden (VIC - DEF)
18. West Coast - Cameron Zurhaar (WA - FWD)

As I do every year I go with my own ladder prediction because it's just more fun that way. I've also intentionally left the academy players unmatched to offer a feel for where I see them fitting at the present time.
--
The basics you'll want to know. It's a midfielders draft. Strength and depth of draft overall looks moderate at this stage. Probably overall lacking the star key position players but that doesn't mean they won't develop over the offseason or next season.

Who has sold me personally? Ben Ainsworth is that only player who today looks like someone who could step into an AFL squad tomorrow and produce (as like the Jamie Elliott equivalent in this draft class). Other than Ainsworth everyone else in my eyes will need to show me what they've got, even though the signs of some of those top end guys such as - Schareberg, Brodie, Petrevski-Seton, Simpkin and Berry particularly look promising a year out. But other than Ainsworth who I expect to remain pretty much around the top five mark, I'm sure next year the names will as always move around substantially from this early prediction.

Another small forward for the Lions I think we have enough with Green Bundy Zorko and Taylor already in the Lions best 22

 

[Knightmare]

What has Berry's kicking like been in games? From watching Richmond train, his kicking was very poor, poor technique and couldn't hit a target

Berry's footskills have lacked consistency. What you saw at training is what I've seen in games in this case.

 

[Iason]

Hey Knight, a little far out I know, but I was wondering if you've seen any of Jack Bowes or Brad Scheer, the two academy boys from the Suns? Should we have reason to be excited?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knight, a little far out I know, but I was wondering if you've seen any of Jack Bowes or Brad Scheer, the two academy boys from the Suns? Should we have reason to be excited?

Bowes is a nice height with good versatility. Has some real evasiveness to him and that's what really sets him apart. Strong overhead. Skills fine at this stage but not his selling point. But could develop into something as an outside type with a hint of Jackson Macrae without nearly that level of production to him at this point.

Scheer is a contested ball winning beast with some ability overhead. Footskills ok without being exceptional really as per Bowes. Endurance needs work but he is someone where if he puts in the work over the next 12 months he could really be someone.

 

[LynchysMob]

Just to add to that Knightmare, in the GC training videos recently Bowes looks to have grown even more. Looks about 190cm now which makes him even more interesting I think.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Knightmare]

Just to add to that Knightmare, in the GC training videos recently Bowes looks to have grown even more. Looks about 190cm now which makes him even more interesting I think.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I have Bowes measured in at 187cm last year so that's very handy if he makes it to 190cm or low 190s.

 

[Iason]

Bowes is a nice height with good versatility. Has some real evasiveness to him and that's what really sets him apart. Strong overhead. Skills fine at this stage but not his selling point. But could develop into something as an outside type with a hint of Jackson Macrae without nearly that level of production to him at this point.

Scheer is a contested ball winning beast with some ability overhead. Footskills ok without being exceptional really as per Bowes. Endurance needs work but he is someone where if he puts in the work over the next 12 months he could really be someone.

Gentleman and a scholar, you are.

 

[Bicks]

[QUOTE="Knightmare, post: 42327873, member: 105307

Adelaide without Dangerfield I think will struggle, and with all the emotions of last year I feel that may also take a toll on the team (I speculate). Their slipping is more a case of I wanted to give St Kilda and Melbourne a touch more credit and move them a few more positions away from the bottom as I see them being not top 8 but still competitive enough.



[/QUOTE]

I'll do some speculating......IF Brad Crouch gets through the pre-season with his foot problem behind him he will more than compensate for the loss of Voldemort....just sayin'.