Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[Balony_pony16]

Tell me about Redman and Morgan. Looks like they will get tons of opportunity in 2016, but will they be ready to impact in Fantasy?

 

[blueiris]

With the bans today who are some top players with Fantasy impact Essendon should look at.

 

[Knightmare]

Tell me about Redman and Morgan. Looks like they will get tons of opportunity in 2016, but will they be ready to impact in Fantasy?

They both given the bans become fantasy relevant quickly. Morgan is while quick and a nice kick with composure is not an accumulator. So he is more a bench option if playing. Redman can find more of the footy and play a bit of anywhere, and improved well last season so has some upside to him, so he would for me be a strong consideration if/when listed as played.

With the bans today who are some top players with Fantasy impact Essendon should look at.

It will surely bring several players into fantasy relevance that otherwise may not be and allow some others to play more prominent roles than previously.

Matthew Leuenberger and David Zaharakis are probably the two I feel will play fairly prominent roles. Leuenberger will have McKernan backing him up so won't get all the minutes, but I assume with Bellchambers out will be the number one ruck. Zaharakis probably is the midfielder with Watson and Heppell out I can see getting more minutes and Craig Bird probably also has to play more of a midfield role. Darcy Parish if he looks like he will play a prominent midfield role is another to consider and maybe Francis down back.

Michael Hartley and Mitch Brown if cheap make a lot of sense with Hooker, Hurley and Pears all out. Ashby and Langford if cheap may be worth considering if they play.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

They both given the bans become fantasy relevant quickly. Morgan is while quick and a nice kick with composure is not an accumulator. So he is more a bench option if playing. Redman can find more of the footy and play a bit of anywhere, and improved well last season so has some upside to him, so he would for me be a strong consideration if/when listed as played.



It will surely bring several players into fantasy relevance that otherwise may not be and allow some others to play more prominent roles than previously.

Matthew Leuenberger and David Zaharakis are probably the two I feel will play fairly prominent roles. Leuenberger will have McKernan backing him up so won't get all the minutes, but I assume with Bellchambers out will be the number one ruck. Zaharakis probably is the midfielder with Watson and Heppell out I can see getting more minutes and Craig Bird probably also has to play more of a midfield role. Darcy Parish if he looks like he will play a prominent midfield role is another to consider and maybe Francis down back.

Michael Hartley and Mitch Brown if cheap make a lot of sense with Hooker, Hurley and Pears all out. Ashby and Langford if cheap may be worth considering if they play.

If they get top-up players the fantasy makers may have to work overtime to get them on their books.
I wonder if the Simpkin brothers are a chance to play on the same team.

 

[Knightmare]

If they get top-up players the fantasy makers may have to work overtime to get them on their books.
I wonder if the Simpkin brothers are a chance to play on the same team.

It will be interesting to hear what the AFL decide.

I can't say I have any insight into what the reaction of the AFL will be and whether they offer Essendon any concessions. It's possible given it's only 12 players that the AFL just say "build a bridge and get over it." And I imagine the AFL more likely than not go this route given it's actually a guilty verdict now, so the AFL will I imagine want to set a precedence and really make clubs think twice if anyone considers anything similar in the future.

It's not like say Port Adelaide losing Ryder and Monfries would be getting anyone, and same story with the other clubs. So it's tricky whichever way the AFL go with how they handle the verdict.

 

[Balony_pony16]

AFL have already said the bombers will get top up players I believe

 

[NLC78]

How did Nick Okearney go in the rookie draft and not national?? How?

Makes no sense. Great character, AA mid ... What more could he have done?

 

[Knightmare]

How did Nick Okearney go in the rookie draft and not national?? How?

Makes no sense. Great character, AA mid ... What more could he have done?

There are a few ways to look at O'Kearney. You can look at him as you do and add to it that his very high numbers through the TAC Cup season.

The other side of it is assessing is game. What does he do that others don't? There is a relative lack of a point of difference. He's isn't tall or a big body. Contested ball winning, marking overhead, kicking, scoreboard impact and linebreaking are not outstanding. So that's why he went as a rookie. You have to have something that makes you stand out from everyone else at AFL level or it's highly unlikely that a productive AFL career will result.

 

[NLC78]

There are a few ways to look at O'Kearney. You can look at him as you do and add to it that his very high numbers through the TAC Cup season.

The other side of it is assessing is game. What does he do that others don't? There is a relative lack of a point of difference. He's isn't tall or a big body. Contested ball winning, marking overhead, kicking, scoreboard impact and linebreaking are not outstanding. So that's why he went as a rookie. You have to have something that makes you stand out from everyone else at AFL level or it's highly unlikely that a productive AFL career will result.

Fair enough. Didnt he win clean hands comp at combine or the kicking though?
Anyway reckon worth a punt a kid who wins ball that much all the time and has that attitude to work on his game. Surely he had something what no inside winning ability?

 

[Knightmare]

Fair enough. Didnt he win clean hands comp at combine or the kicking though?
Anyway reckon worth a punt a kid who wins ball that much all the time and has that attitude to work on his game. Surely he had something what no inside winning ability?

O'Kearney was equal best in the goalkicking test and finished top 10 in the kicking.

In saying Clem Smith in 2014 finished top 10 in the kicking test so fair to say I don't hold any of the certainly skill testing from the combine in any regard.

Relating to what O'Kearney did in game. From July onward he had a kicking efficiency well below 50%. And that's from a guy who isn't a damaging or penetrating kick. So calling him even a good kick would consider inaccurate.

As for his ability to win the contested ball. He can win the contested ball to a good standard, but not a great standard. And as a small mid at 180cm, 69kg, that a task to making only good (at TAC Cup/u18) contested ball winning translate to or improve for AFL play. Things at AFL level almost always go the other way when only good and not dominant in a particular area unless a guy has a late growth spurt or something along those lines.

So it's going to be a fight for O'Kearney. He can do really well at VFL level I feel given his junior production. But the step up to AFL standard football and more specifically the fight to become a best 22 player is where I see the challenge being for O'Kearney.

 

[NLC78]

Heres hoping for a growth spurt!
Highlights show good kicking and footy brain at times BUT then bad rushed decisions where he butchers it. Im hoping the kid has the skill and with AFL coaching /training he takes to it and improves that. We'll see. I just love the kids endevour and attitude.
Anyway thanks for the input! Does explain why.

 

[McCraeBF]

Hi Knightmare hope your well and happy new year,,

There is a kid at stingrays that is a Jet last name McKay looks around 193 plays on the wing ..had any reports 6 player managers wanted to sign him..

Also after the last years 2014 steels it seems the dogs have done it again, was at training last week and Collins,Dunkley,and Williams look amazing..

Throw in Big Adams we have nailed this draft ...

Also on Dunkley spoke to his dad at training and was told something interesting had massive back issues they thought might never go away but found out it was hip related and that is why his running and kicking has improved out of site..Luck plays a big role and a 191cm onballer who goes in hard do not grow on trees -Thanks Tigers..

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare hope your well and happy new year,,

There is a kid at stingrays that is a Jet last name McKay looks around 193 plays on the wing ..had any reports 6 player managers wanted to sign him..

Also after the last years 2014 steels it seems the dogs have done it again, was at training last week and Collins,Dunkley,and Williams look amazing..

Throw in Big Adams we have nailed this draft ...

Also on Dunkley spoke to his dad at training and was told something interesting had massive back issues they thought might never go away but found out it was hip related and that is why his running and kicking has improved out of site..Luck plays a big role and a 191cm onballer who goes in hard do not grow on trees -Thanks Tigers..

McKay is a new name to me going into this season and don't believe he played any games for Western last year.

Good to hear new Dogs are settling in well and looking the goods. The club have recruited well in recent seasons and is doesn't surprise me that last years group is performing well either given the standards of performance last year by all those national draft selections.

Collins as a 1v1 player and stopper was so dominant last year that if he can clean up his movement he could be a long term key defender.

Dunkley if injury free and fully healthy is very interesting. If he learns how to kick and improves his movement he can be one of the better mids from last years draft.

Williams was a very strong performer in SA last year and at his height and with his attributes he looks very developable.

Any opinion on Marcus Adams at this stage?

 

[the big lebowski]

Both I'd regard as flattering comparisons keeping in mind I compare Harry to Matt Taberner and Ben to Michael Apeness.

Harry doesn't mark like Petrie, but probably isn't all that much unlike Petrie in his early days before he developed into the forward he is today.

Ben I could plausibly play at either end as per Henderson, or that's the hope given he has played both ends as a junior. I just look at Henderson's mobility and ability to read the flight as being on another level where I'm not overly comfortable with that comparison either at this early stage.

But then again others are more optimistic about the scope for development of the McKay boys. So you never say never. I'm just as a rule not prepared with bigs to give them credit before they earn it, which with both being young have not, but I just don't like that risk associated with taking the chance on guys who haven't dominated yet and have had more quite/invisible games than games where they've starred.

Its interesting that you make that comment about Ben (poor mobility). I have seen a number of draft watches say the same thing. In addition to his poor kicking.

Track watchers at preseason training for North have stated the opposite on both counts. That Ben is moving very well for a 200 cm lump of a lad and that his kicking has also looked good. The other thing that has stood out is his marking, which as you have stated seems to be a strength.

 

[knobby]

so ....... how long until the 2016 version Knightmare

 

[Knightmare]

so ....... how long until the 2016 version Knightmare

Yet to decide if it will happen this year.

If it happens, probably around the time of the u18 championships.

 

[M Malice]

Yet to decide if it will happen this year.

 

[smashbox gill]

Knightmare, what were the queries on D. Cuningham last year? He seems to be really establishing himself as a bargain at pick 20 last year based on his training so far. He seems to have a damaging outside game with explosive pace and an elite kick, and also seems to be comfortable inside as well using his sidestep to create space in the contest. Looks to have an AFL ready body as well.

Also did he have a strong end to the year, where he may have shot up peoples rankings?

 

[manny100]

As I understand it the 12 Essendon players can walk out as delisted free agents because of the club breaches in relation to their contracts. Obviously most will stay but you can bet a club like the Hawks will be throwing everything at Heppell and/or Hurly. I would expect Hooker will get an offer from Freo but he could go as a free agent or delisted free agent if he wished. Clubs get no compensation for losing a delisted free agent.
If they were to lose those 3 with say compensation for only Hooker it would seriously delay the Don's rebuild.
Club recruiters will be like kids in a lolly shop when it comes to the '12'.
I expect Freo to go hard at McCarthy (or Hurly) from GWS and Hooker at seasons end to be the talls to go with their A grade mids.

 

[jjami15]

Yet to decide if it will happen this year.

If it happens, probably around the time of the u18 championships.

Can understand the time it takes especially with replying to posts however your insights/player profiles would be great. Maybe just state it early that you will only do your profiles and not answer questions and as the season goes on change their ratings. Just an idea, a number of us are very appreciative of your work.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, what were the queries on D. Cuningham last year? He seems to be really establishing himself as a bargain at pick 20 last year based on his training so far. He seems to have a damaging outside game with explosive pace and an elite kick, and also seems to be comfortable inside as well using his sidestep to create space in the contest. Looks to have an AFL ready body as well.

Also did he have a strong end to the year, where he may have shot up peoples rankings?

Cuningham has the pace and tricks (sidestep, skillset etc). The issue is he doesn't find or win enough of it. If he can in time develop that he can develop into something. Stats not big or eye-popping at any stage last year.

You can find his stats here: http://www.foxsportspulse.com/team_...=1-3020-111727-339771-20320284&ocompID=339771

As I understand it the 12 Essendon players can walk out as delisted free agents because of the club breaches in relation to their contracts. Obviously most will stay but you can bet a club like the Hawks will be throwing everything at Heppell and/or Hurly. I would expect Hooker will get an offer from Freo but he could go as a free agent or delisted free agent if he wished. Clubs get no compensation for losing a delisted free agent.
If they were to lose those 3 with say compensation for only Hooker it would seriously delay the Don's rebuild.
Club recruiters will be like kids in a lolly shop when it comes to the '12'.
I expect Freo to go hard at McCarthy (or Hurly) from GWS and Hooker at seasons end to be the talls to go with their A grade mids.

The AFL would I imagine offer Essendon some compensation due to how extreme those circumstances would be.

It's possible maybe 1-2 walk under those rules, which I'm not familiar with having not looked into it, but if and if so then who knows who may leave.

Hooker would be hotly demanded with very good KPPs so hard to find. Fremantle are a logical destination given he was drafted out of WA and Fremantle need talls at both end with Pavlich and not much else.

Heppell/Hurley similarly who knows?

Fremantle will presumably go after Cam McCarthy again at seasons end as they still need that key forward. Pretty quick rebuild if Freo can get Hooker and McCarthy!

Can understand the time it takes especially with replying to posts however your insights/player profiles would be great. Maybe just state it early that you will only do your profiles and not answer questions and as the season goes on change their ratings. Just an idea, a number of us are very appreciative of your work.

I'll consider all possibilities but if I post anything, I'd ideally like to keep the level of engagement up.

It may be just a power rankings and discussion. Who knows?

I'll over the coming months assess what this year looks like once I have a better idea and make a decision at the appropriate time.

 

[Lerch]

11. Sydney - Harrison Macraedie (NSW/ACT - GWS ACADEMY - KPD).

You don't see gws taking macraedie? Seems they lack a rebounding chb.

 

[Knightmare]

You don't see gws taking macraedie? Seems they lack a rebounding chb.

Bidding plays a part. Both clubs need another quality key defender.

In saying that given it's a predicted ladder and rough order from the year prior the point of the exercise is more fitting guys in where they may sit compared to their peers.

 

[manny100]

I note the AFL Prospectus says that players who do not win enough of their own ball at the junior level struggle to make it in the AFL. Examples were Morton, Toumpass and Lucas who all were high disposal players but low contested ball winners. % was also cited. They also state Aish had the same concerns and that there still remains doubt over whether he will be the player Collingwood hopes he will be. The risk factor with early picks certainly increases with low contested ball winners.
They are all based on stats. The Dees would love to have there turn again but all to late. They rate the Dees list poorly. I am a Dees member and rate the list as having a lot of potential but they do not. I do note that under Roos they have stacked the list with competitive ball winning players plus Stretch and Melksham (next season).
Koch Ports President said on his morning show that at a meeting the AFL and all the club Presidents implored Essendon to take the offer from ASADA and move on. They refused and the rest is history. He also suggested that the AFL should have a provision where the clubs and AFL can enforce a remedy to a situation to protect the Brand.
Anyway I think there would be a uproar by clubs if the AFL were to compromise another draft/s to assist Essendon. They were given pick 19 as part of the punishment deal a couple of years ago. The problem is that the AFL cannot afford to have Essendon down to long. Not good for TV - but long memories in the AFL!!
Cheers,M

 

[Knightmare]

I note the AFL Prospectus says that players who do not win enough of their own ball at the junior level struggle to make it in the AFL. Examples were Morton, Toumpass and Lucas who all were high disposal players but low contested ball winners. % was also cited. They also state Aish had the same concerns and that there still remains doubt over whether he will be the player Collingwood hopes he will be. The risk factor with early picks certainly increases with low contested ball winners.
They are all based on stats. The Dees would love to have there turn again but all to late. They rate the Dees list poorly. I am a Dees member and rate the list as having a lot of potential but they do not. I do note that under Roos they have stacked the list with competitive ball winning players plus Stretch and Melksham (next season).
Koch Ports President said on his morning show that at a meeting the AFL and all the club Presidents implored Essendon to take the offer from ASADA and move on. They refused and the rest is history. He also suggested that the AFL should have a provision where the clubs and AFL can enforce a remedy to a situation to protect the Brand.
Anyway I think there would be a uproar by clubs if the AFL were to compromise another draft/s to assist Essendon. They were given pick 19 as part of the punishment deal a couple of years ago. The problem is that the AFL cannot afford to have Essendon down to long. Not good for TV - but long memories in the AFL!!
Cheers,M

I'm yet to get my hands on a copy of this years prospectus. My local newsagent is yet to receive a copy so I'll contact champion data next week to find out what the story is.

In terms of the observation regarding winning contested ball as juniors they are absolutely right and it's been something I've been hammering on about for several years now. If you look through those high draft picks in recent years you'll see more years than not it's those high contested ball winners that go on and have the better careers of the midfielders. Oliver Wines anyone? Fyfe, Dangerfield, Bontempelli, Cripps. It's those high level contested ball winners who become the stars. And even those who may not project as star quality can still have AFL careers if they can win the contested footy as juniors. It helps if you can do other things also as say Luke Parker can as a very able overhead mark also. So this understanding does need to hold some fairly heavy weighting in constructing a preferred player order and a large part of Hopper and Oliver being rated at 1 and 2 respectively is due to this understanding of just how great those dominating contested ball winners can become at AFL level.

As for Essendon. I haven't taken the time these past years to follow any of what is happening. I'm well aware of the players banned and those players who are signing on. But otherwise as a non-football issue I'm just not interested in hearing about it and would rather it just play out, out of the media and everyone just get on with the football and game/player analysis.

I don't expect Essendon to receive any kind of compensation/assistance beyond the temporary players for this season. So my hope is there will be no more news and business can just continue as usual, and hopefully while a neutral fan I'd like to see Essendon just get through it and get back to business as usual for the 2017 season.

Overall it's a shame the AFL itself can't just do any drug testing or whatever is required and make their own decisions. Outsourcing that responsibility to an external body clearly in this example has proven to be the problem. So hopefully the procedure can change and if a finding such as in Essendon's case occurs again, my hope would be the AFL can just hand down a judgement quickly and we can just get on with the show without any fuss or bother.