Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[philthy05]

McKay is a decent piece to have especially if north can find a intercepting chb or 3rd tall type to complement him.

 

[Knightmare]

Also, interested in some feedback for those who enjoy my monthly power rankings.

Do people prefer the strengths/weaknesses style of power rankings as per today's July Power Rankings including player comparisons, height/weight/club, why they moved up/down etc or the more general paragraph on each player with the progress and details there from my June power rankings and earlier?

 

[GUMBLETRON]

I think the stats and comparison add good value.

I reckon you could slim the strengths/weaknesses down though to allow that deeper explanation alongside while still highlighting the few biggest weapons or concerns.

 

[chopflop]

How do you watch Jason horne and be reminded of Jarrod (however you spell it) lyons... One of the more bizarre comparisons I have seen tbh

 

[Knightmare]

How do you watch Jason horne and be reminded of Jarrod (however you spell it) lyons... One of the more bizarre comparisons I have seen tbh

Lyons is playing incredible football this year and is a clear-cut top-10 midfielder in the game now. He has gone underrated for the longest time and only now is really getting from some, some of the recognition he should be. Incredible contested ball winner, but also a good ball user, he hits his i50 targets, his tackling and pressure is really good. He can pop forward and kick a goal. Lyons is a complete midfielder and a lot more damaging than people give him credit for which is what many will miss with the comparison.

 

[philthy05]

I don’t know about comparisons, they’re always tough anyway ..

But 2021 Lyons is a gun.

while everyone was focused on other names i was suggesting that port throw the kitchen sink at Lyons to port (but knew it wouldnt happen)

would have happily made him one of the highest paid afl players for the next two seasons.

 

[chopflop]

Lyons is playing incredible football this year and is a clear-cut top-10 midfielder in the game now. He has gone underrated for the longest time and only now is really getting from some, some of the recognition he should be. Incredible contested ball winner, but also a good ball user, he hits his i50 targets, his tackling and pressure is really good. He can pop forward and kick a goal. Lyons is a complete midfielder and a lot more damaging than people give him credit for which is what many will miss with the comparison.

For the contested game, yeh I see the logic. Power, athleticism and overhead marking ability? Are these not the characteristic parts of horne's game. The parts that set him apart? Your plays like comparison is pretty limited because it undersells these qualities

 

[Knightmare]

I don’t know about comparisons, they’re always tough anyway ..

But 2021 Lyons is a gun.

while everyone was focused on other names i was suggesting that port throw the kitchen sink at Lyons to port (but knew it wouldnt happen)

would have happily made him one of the highest paid afl players for the next two seasons.

Lyons is unbelievable. I loved him with Gold Coast and thought the criticisms of his play were entirely unreasonable. He was a year on year improver, having a good last year with Adelaide, then looking better with each year for Gold Coast, continuing to improve with Brisbane and become really, undeniably one of the competition's elite midfielders.

Why clubs didn't push harder for Lyons when Gold Coast were going to delist him I'll never understand. He was even then a top-30 in the competition midfielder and should have been the guy they built their midfield around with Lyons that premier outside runner and the only guy at that time on their list who could generate meaningful drive.

For the contested game, yeh I see the logic. Power, athleticism and overhead marking ability? Are these not the characteristic parts of horne's game. The parts that set him apart? Your plays like comparison is pretty limited because it undersells these qualities

I look at Horne's pressure and tackling to be those most consistent components he brings every week which had be thinking he has some Sloane, though Horne does have more tricks. The other parts come in flashes but are lower frequency, though I don't disagree at all they're strengths also.

Lyons has shown some power this year and even last year, and has taken some contested marks also (7 to Lyons v 6 to Horne). Both are midfielders first who can go forward as required. Though you're right Horne stylistically has more x-factor than has been associated with Lyons over the years.

My pre-season comparison for Horne was Ablett Jnr but he's not playing that kind of football and isn't nearly as prolific at any of the things Ablett brought to the table. Not that Ablett necessarily became the player he would become until 2007, but before that he was more a talented forward with Horne more a genuine midfielder who doesn't have anywhere close to that same front half talent.

If you have another idea for a comparison, I'm more than happy to consider one, as for Horne, and I'd say the same for many others, there isn't a perfect comparison.

 

[Chris25]

How do you watch Jason horne and be reminded of Jarrod (however you spell it) lyons... One of the more bizarre comparisons I have seen tbh

As bizarre as saying consistency from game to game is a weakness.

 

[Knightmare]

As bizarre as saying consistency from game to game is a weakness.

For anyone consistency is listed as a weakness for, that indicates they lack consistency.

Happy to re-word for next month's rankings if that makes my meaning clearer.

 

[dinnaz]

Also, interested in some feedback for those who enjoy my monthly power rankings.

Do people prefer the strengths/weaknesses style of power rankings as per today's July Power Rankings including player comparisons, height/weight/club, why they moved up/down etc or the more general paragraph on each player with the progress and details there from my June power rankings and earlier?

Great work every year KM. Comparisons and write ups help create a good picture. More info on strengths, weaknesses & future projections is where its at. The only superfluous thing I can see is why there's movements up/down in the rankings which your generalised power rankings should cover. Just creating more work that will be overwritten eventually.

 

[the big lebowski]

Lyons is playing incredible football this year and is a clear-cut top-10 midfielder in the game now. He has gone underrated for the longest time and only now is really getting from some, some of the recognition he should be. Incredible contested ball winner, but also a good ball user, he hits his i50 targets, his tackling and pressure is really good. He can pop forward and kick a goal. Lyons is a complete midfielder and a lot more damaging than people give him credit for which is what many will miss with the comparison.

Lyons is a clear cut top 10 midfielder in the game? May I ask where you rate Ben Cunnington?

 

[Knightmare]

Lyons is a clear cut top 10 midfielder in the game? May I ask where you rate Ben Cunnington?

I'd only have Bont, Petracca, Parish, Liberatore, Macrae and Steele (though in the same conversation with three) ahead of Lyons this year if I'm to list off my best mids for 2021 to date. With Wines, Merrett and Walsh as those I have behind Lyons, though in that same conversation as other mids having terrific years.

I'd have Cunnington as a top-20 mid this year. Top-2 for contested possessions, top-3 for clearances. He's a beast inside and North Melbourne's best mid and one of the premier stoppage mids as that ball winner and distributor (better than Lyons even in those components), and he's even kicking a goal here/there this year to his credit which helps with that valuation.

He's just not as damaging as Lyons and doesn't have those same number of ways of hurting you. He's not damaging by foot as Lyons is, not that damaging kick i50, less dynamic around stoppages, and doesn't contribute as much around the ground.

Lyons, and people also sleep on him in the defensive components of the game, but he's an elite tackler and pressure player this season. Cunnington is solid in those respects also, but not on the level of Lyons.

 

[Chris25]

For anyone consistency is listed as a weakness for, that indicates they lack consistency.

Happy to re-word for next month's rankings if that makes my meaning clearer.

Seems strange for Horne. Given consistent is one of the first words most would use to describe his season. And for an 18 year old playing league football, that’s a strength.

 

[chopflop]

Lyons is unbelievable. I loved him with Gold Coast and thought the criticisms of his play were entirely unreasonable. He was a year on year improver, having a good last year with Adelaide, then looking better with each year for Gold Coast, continuing to improve with Brisbane and become really, undeniably one of the competition's elite midfielders.

Why clubs didn't push harder for Lyons when Gold Coast were going to delist him I'll never understand. He was even then a top-30 in the competition midfielder and should have been the guy they built their midfield around with Lyons that premier outside runner and the only guy at that time on their list who could generate meaningful drive.



I look at Horne's pressure and tackling to be those most consistent components he brings every week which had be thinking he has some Sloane, though Horne does have more tricks. The other parts come in flashes but are lower frequency, though I don't disagree at all they're strengths also.

Lyons has shown some power this year and even last year, and has taken some contested marks also (7 to Lyons v 6 to Horne). Both are midfielders first who can go forward as required. Though you're right Horne stylistically has more x-factor than has been associated with Lyons over the years.

My pre-season comparison for Horne was Ablett Jnr but he's not playing that kind of football and isn't nearly as prolific at any of the things Ablett brought to the table. Not that Ablett necessarily became the player he would become until 2007, but before that he was more a talented forward with Horne more a genuine midfielder who doesn't have anywhere close to that same front half talent.

If you have another idea for a comparison, I'm more than happy to consider one, as for Horne, and I'd say the same for many others, there isn't a perfect comparison.

I was referring to the eye test. That's what is implied when you say plays like. I think yours is more similarities? Comparisons are almost always a flawed regardless. I would have thought any of the elite power mids was stylistically a better fit. Maybe petracca?

 

[bird_man]

What are your thoughts on Chesser Knightmare ?

I noticed he hasn't made your top 20

Do you think he can become a good mid or is he destined just to be an outside type off the flanks and the wing

 

[the big lebowski]

I'd only have Bont, Petracca, Parish, Liberatore, Macrae and Steele (though in the same conversation with three) ahead of Lyons this year if I'm to list off my best mids for 2021 to date. With Wines, Merrett and Walsh as those I have behind Lyons, though in that same conversation as other mids having terrific years.

I'd have Cunnington as a top-20 mid this year. Top-2 for contested possessions, top-3 for clearances. He's a beast inside and North Melbourne's best mid and one of the premier stoppage mids as that ball winner and distributor (better than Lyons even in those components), and he's even kicking a goal here/there this year to his credit which helps with that valuation.

He's just not as damaging as Lyons and doesn't have those same number of ways of hurting you. He's not damaging by foot as Lyons is, not that damaging kick i50, less dynamic around stoppages, and doesn't contribute as much around the ground.

Lyons, and people also sleep on him in the defensive components of the game, but he's an elite tackler and pressure player this season. Cunnington is solid in those respects also, but not on the level of Lyons.

I’m not interested in arguing, but that’s why you need to watch games and not go off stats alone. Aside from cunners 8.7 to Lyons 7.2 this year he’s also slicing them up by foot. Brad Johnson called him the best one step kick in the comp on the weekend. And it’s hard to argue with. He also the best exponent of a handball since Greg Williams.

 

[Knightmare]

Seems strange for Horne. Given consistent is one of the first words most would use to describe his season. And for an 18 year old playing league football, that’s a strength.

Horne has developed greater consistency over the past month and a half, so that is something on the improve. But watching his lack of impact in particular in that Norwood game offensively if you watched that one, with the same story coming in that Geelong VFL game. The Port Adelaide game I didn't see that offensive impact. So it could well be down to the timing of when I got a high concentration of Horne games in during the Victorian breaks from play, but as per every comment I've made over the past few months, the only component Horne has in those six games I've seen been able to consistently do is tackle and pressure to a high level, with that defensive commitment that one staple where when things haven't gone his way, he has delivered. Winning the footy, impacting games offensively, he has had his moments but in those games fewer than I'd like and more-so having a good quarter than a good four quarters.

I was referring to the eye test. That's what is implied when you say plays like. I think yours is more similarities? Comparisons are almost always a flawed regardless. I would have thought any of the elite power mids was stylistically a better fit. Maybe petracca?

My eye test doesn't see a Petracca in Horne. When I think of Petracca, I think of a level of strength, size and scoreboard impact that Horne doesn't nearly have. He's not that kind of strong midfielder and more a one-touch ground ball winner. He's not in my view at least going to get anywhere close to that level of player either.

That's what's tricky with player comparisons, there aren't always obvious like-for-likes.

What are your thoughts on Chesser Knightmare ?

I noticed he hasn't made your top 20

Do you think he can become a good mid or is he destined just to be an outside type off the flanks and the wing

I watched Chesser again on the weekend, and I keep wanting to be impressed, but he's yet to impress me. He hasn't done anything yet to have me consider him a top-30 pick at this point in time. He's neither high production nor impacting games in any way offensively. There isn't a particular position he's looking like an AFL player at this stage, though I'm hoping over the second half of the season he starts playing some better footy and changes me mind.

I’m not interested in arguing, but that’s why you need to watch games and not go off stats alone. Aside from cunners 8.7 to Lyons 7.2 this year he’s also slicing them up by foot. Brad Johnson called him the best one step kick in the comp on the weekend. And it’s hard to argue with. He also the best exponent of a handball since Greg Williams.

I did mention in my previous post that Cunnington is hitting the scoreboard and as he has been throughout his career and had separation in his work by hand.

I haven't noticed the same of Cunnington by foot, but then again, I've only watched the two North Melbourne games other than preseason so far this year. Watching just two games of a team by the half way mark shouldn't disqualify anyone from having an opinion on a player, it just won't allow for the same level of nuance of opinion. And as a generalist, my interest is having a more broad understanding of everyone across as many competitions as I can.

If North Melbourne start winning games or there is someone I want to see more of for whatever reason, I may watch a third North game this year.

Interesting if he's also getting it done by foot on a high level this year. I don't listen to any commentary around players, so I only observe what I observe.

Does his kick in your view in addition to the other positive components place Cunnington in the top-10 midfield conversation or ahead of any I mentioned in my top-10?

I would imagine, and others are welcome to contribute too, that most would consider Cunnington top-20 but not top-10 of midfielders currently.

 

[the big lebowski]

I did mention in my previous post that Cunnington is hitting the scoreboard and as he has been throughout his career and had separation in his work by hand.

I haven't noticed the same of Cunnington by foot, but then again, I've only watched the two North Melbourne games other than preseason so far this year. Watching just two games of a team by the half way mark shouldn't disqualify anyone from having an opinion on a player, it just won't allow for the same level of nuance of opinion. And as a generalist, my interest is having a more broad understanding of everyone across as many competitions as I can.

If North Melbourne start winning games or there is someone I want to see more of for whatever reason, I may watch a third North game this year.

Interesting if he's also getting it done by foot on a high level this year. I don't listen to any commentary around players, so I only observe what I observe.

Does his kick in your view in addition to the other positive components place Cunnington in the top-10 midfield conversation or ahead of any I mentioned in my top-10?

I would imagine, and others are welcome to contribute too, that most would consider Cunnington top-20 but not top-10 of midfielders currently.

Id have your ranking of Lyons and Cunnington around the other way.

Re his kicking, obviously having only seen the two games this year you wouldn’t be aware of it, but it has gone next level.

The reason imo is the man on the mark rule. In the past, whilst he was strong by foot, he’d kick into the man int he mark a lot. He loves a flat kick off one step. Certainly he’s not a long kick. But with the man on the mark rule he’s now able to kick around the mark. To great effect.

 

[FlyingV]

Also, interested in some feedback for those who enjoy my monthly power rankings.

Do people prefer the strengths/weaknesses style of power rankings as per today's July Power Rankings including player comparisons, height/weight/club, why they moved up/down etc or the more general paragraph on each player with the progress and details there from my June power rankings and earlier?

Great job on the latest power rankings. I like the strengths and weaknesses mainly because it’s cool to hear about how these players differentiate themselves from one another. A player might have a quiet game and slide down the rankings based on performance, but maybe they exhibit a trait or quality that AFL clubs are looking for and can develop which actually improves their value come draft night.

 

[Knightmare]

Id have your ranking of Lyons and Cunnington around the other way.

Re his kicking, obviously having only seen the two games this year you wouldn’t be aware of it, but it has gone next level.

The reason imo is the man on the mark rule. In the past, whilst he was strong by foot, he’d kick into the man int he mark a lot. He loves a flat kick off one step. Certainly he’s not a long kick. But with the man on the mark rule he’s now able to kick around the mark. To great effect.

Fair enough and I can see that re. his kicking. Of interest, how many Lyons games have you seen this year?

Would you rate Lyons behind or ahead of Wines/Merrett/Walsh? Or you haven't seen enough of him this year to have a strong view?

 

[the big lebowski]

Fair enough and I can see that re. his kicking. Of interest, how many Lyons games have you seen this year?

Would you rate Lyons behind or ahead of Wines/Merrett/Walsh? Or you haven't seen enough of him this year to have a strong view?

I’ve seen 6 Lions games by estimate. I’d have all 3 of those guys ahead of Lyons, but I haven’t seen much of Port other than round 1 and the recent game where wines got 40 odd. I’m not knocking Lyons at all. He’s a very good mid and I agree that he’s widely underrated (maybe even by me). Very much like Cunners, who received 1 out of 5 for his match on the weekend, by a media outlet but it went to Dan Cunnington.

 

[Knightmare]

I’ve seen 6 Lions games by estimate. I’d have all 3 of those guys ahead of Lyons, but I haven’t seen much of Port other than round 1 and the recent game where wines got 40 odd. I’m not knocking Lyons at all. He’s a very good mid and I agree that he’s widely underrated (maybe even by me). Very much like Cunners, who received 1 out of 5 for his match on the weekend, by a media outlet but it went to Dan Cunnington.

With Lyons what he has me thinking about is whether he has gone past Neale. Obviously Neale isn't having the year he'd like with injury so you can't judge him on that, but assuming both are healthy next year, while Neale is the higher volume ball winner, Lyons may be the better all-around mid as that much better tackler/pressure player and with the more damaging ball use by foot and forward of centre capabilities by comparison.

Sounds like a media thing to do to butcher Cunnington's name and not pay attention to the small market, bottom of ladder kind of teams. At least it wasn't Cunningham which I read more times than I care to mention in his early years.

 

[briztoon]

Lyons is playing incredible football this year and is a clear-cut top-10 midfielder in the game now. He has gone underrated for the longest time and only now is really getting from some, some of the recognition he should be. Incredible contested ball winner, but also a good ball user, he hits his i50 targets, his tackling and pressure is really good. He can pop forward and kick a goal. Lyons is a complete midfielder and a lot more damaging than people give him credit for which is what many will miss with the comparison.

lol Horne and Lyons aren’t anything alike stylistically as players.

Players can share similar general traits and statistics, but play completely differently.

Horne is dynamic, athletic and is much more similar to a shorter Dangerfield with a better kick.

Lyon is more earthbound, slow, and turns like the HMS Queen Mary II. What separates Lyon is his football smarts and positioning.

 

[Knightmare]

lol Horne and Lyons aren’t anything alike stylistically as players.

Players can share similar general traits and statistics, but play completely differently.

Horne is dynamic, athletic and is much more similar to a shorter Dangerfield with a better kick.

Lyon is more earthbound, slow, and turns like the HMS Queen Mary II. What separates Lyon is his football smarts and positioning.

Horne doesn't nearly have Dangerfield's explosiveness. He's quick selectively, but he doesn't have those kinds of wheels or have that kind of power, or have those kinds of contested capabilities on that level, or those kinds of forward of centre capabilities. He's more-so a quick and one-touch ground ball winner and dramatically more defensively oriented and adept with his play compared to Danger.