Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[dinnaz]

Horne doesn't nearly have Dangerfield's explosiveness. He's quick selectively, but he doesn't have those kinds of wheels or have that kind of power, or have those kinds of contested capabilities on that level, or those kinds of forward of centre capabilities. He's more-so a quick and one-touch ground ball winner and dramatically more defensively oriented and adept with his play compared to Danger.

Andrew Walker would be my pick of past players for comparison.

 

[Knightmare]

Andrew Walker would be my pick of past players for comparison.

Horne is a threat aerially, though he's more a genuine mid v Walker who could play fwd/back and didn't spend much time through the midfield.

 

[M Malice]

Also, interested in some feedback for those who enjoy my monthly power rankings.

Do people prefer the strengths/weaknesses style of power rankings as per today's July Power Rankings including player comparisons, height/weight/club, why they moved up/down etc or the more general paragraph on each player with the progress and details there from my June power rankings and earlier?

Personally I like the player comparisons, lets you visualize what sort of player he is and what he could be.

 

[Mutineer]

Seems strange for Horne. Given consistent is one of the first words most would use to describe his season. And for an 18 year old playing league football, that’s a strength.

Nearly as strange as comparing Horne's game to that of Jarryd Lyons, athletically there is no comparison whatsoever.

 

[Knightmare]

Nearly as strange as comparing Horne's game to that of Jarryd Lyons, athletically there is no comparison whatsoever.

I don't disagree with you athletically, though I'm yet to find or have recommended a better comparison.

Who would you compare Horne to?

Chris25 also interested in your Horne comparison if you have a good one.

 

[Mutineer]

Who would you compare Lyons to?

Chris25 also interested in your Lyons comparison if you have a good one.

Certainly not Jason Horne....and I've seen plenty of Jarryd Lyons....not even close stylistically.

 

[briztoon]

Personally I like the player comparisons, lets you visualize what sort of player he is and what he could be.

If the player comparisons are basically similar.

Go on to YouTube and watch some Jason Horne highlights, and tell Knightmare whether Horne plays similarly to Lyons.

 

[Chris25]

I don't disagree with you athletically, though I'm yet to find or have recommended a better comparison.

Who would you compare Horne to?

Chris25 also interested in your Horne comparison if you have a good one.

I’ve moved away from direct comparisons because it just gives people the wrong idea. Horne is his own player…but one that shares a similar style of play to Dangerfield. Maybe not the top level open speed - but power, strength and the overhead ability all being traits of Horne’s game.

 

[Mutineer]

I’ve moved away from direct comparisons because it just gives people the wrong idea. Horne is his own player…but one that shares a similar style of play to Dangerfield. Maybe not the top level open speed - but power, strength and the overhead ability all being traits of Horne’s game.

Maybe even Petracca the midfielder but more explosive, athletic and agile than Lyons.

 

[Knightmare]

I appreciate the replies.

I'm moving more-so in the midfield version of Heeney direction for Horne.

I'm not seeing the level of explosion, power or strength with a Horne of a Danger/Petracca. I understand the comparisons, but I don't see Horne developing into anything like that. He doesn't nearly have that kind of upside or body that can allow him to do any of what makes Danger/Petracca special on anywhere near that level.

 

[Mutineer]

I appreciate the replies.

I'm moving more-so in the midfield version of Heeney direction for Horne.

I'm not seeing the level of explosion, power or strength with a Horne of a Danger/Petracca. I understand the comparisons, but I don't see Horne developing into anything like that. He doesn't nearly have that kind of upside or body that can allow him to do any of what makes Danger/Petracca special on anywhere near that level.

You're not seeing Horne play against his own age group either, bit harder against more experienced mature bodies and generally playing more forward than midfield. What do you think he'd look like playing against 17 to 19 year olds in the NAB League and playing midfield? Dominant would be my guess.

The Nationals will be where we see him use all the tools in his kit bag against his peers.

Time will be the test but I think Horne will have a higher ceiling than where you currently have it.

 

[Chris25]

If Horne doesn't have elite level upside, then nobody in this draft does.

 

[Knightmare]

You're not seeing Horne play against his own age group either, bit harder against more experienced mature bodies and generally playing more forward than midfield. What do you think he'd look like playing against 17 to 19 year olds in the NAB League and playing midfield? Dominant would be my guess.

The Nationals will be where we see him use all the tools in his kit bag against his peers.

Time will be the test but I think Horne will have a higher ceiling than where you currently have it.

No doubt Horne would be dominating if he were against his age group. That's why he's #2 on my draft board.

What do you view the heights of Horne's career as being at this time? Will he become the best midfielder in the competition one day? Will he win a Brownlow? How many All-Australian teams will he make?

I'm looking at a couple of All-Australian teams and a point in time where he's a top-10 mid as a good outcome and what I'd be hoping for.

I can't say I'll be making any suggestions this year on Horne, or Daicos for that matter that they'll be All-time greats or among the absolute premier players of this next generation. You can't rule it out with top players in a draft, but I'm looking at them both unfavourably compared to recent early picks for the same age/stage if I'm put them in the context of recent drafts and where my projections were of them relative to Horne/Daicos at this same time. I don't have this draft as all that strong up the top end or through the first round with a lot of misses likely.

The Champs will as you say though be the time where we see how Horne/Daicos really compare and whether there is anyone else who should be in the conversation with them.

If Horne doesn't have elite level upside, then nobody in this draft does.

Also interested from you Chris25 as to where you place Horne regarding: What do you view the heights of Horne's career as being? Will he become the best midfielder in the competition one day? Will he win a Brownlow? How many All-Australian teams will he make?

There is no one disputing Horne is a pick 1-3 this year. The discussion I feel like is more-so around just how good/great or otherwise these guys can be.

I'm going to have to go another way and say I'm looking at Darcy's ceiling as being potentially the highest if realised from this pool as he's someone where at his height, he can do things we haven't seen before and is still growing and developing which adds another layer of upside onto it. It's just he's relatively less likely to fulfill that ultimate upside as he's the less advanced and has a lot further to develop adding greater uncertainty which is why I'm not yet going out on a limb and calling him the best in the pool as I'd like to see a larger sample size and more games of dominance. I'm not going to rule out moving him up my board though if he keeps impressing me.

 

[chopflop]

I appreciate the replies.

I'm moving more-so in the midfield version of Heeney direction for Horne.

I'm not seeing the level of explosion, power or strength with a Horne of a Danger/Petracca. I understand the comparisons, but I don't see Horne developing into anything like that. He doesn't nearly have that kind of upside or body that can allow him to do any of what makes Danger/Petracca special on anywhere near that level.

Reckon every club recruiter would disagree with you and most of us bigfooty nuffies. I get the that having contrarian views is part of your schtik but there is no objective way for you to say Horne is not on danger or tracs level athletically. We will find that out at the combine but most who see any 10sec Twitter clip can see his is at the elite elite end of the spectrum for pace and power

 

[the big lebowski]

In terms of upside comparison for Horne

How about Riccutto? Same height. Same positions.

 

[Knightmare]

Reckon every club recruiter would disagree with you and most of us bigfooty nuffies. I get the that having contrarian views is part of your schtik but there is no objective way for you to say Horne is not on danger or tracs level athletically. We will find that out at the combine but most who see any 10sec Twitter clip can see his is at the elite elite end of the spectrum for pace and power

I'm going off of what I see in game. I don't view any of the highlight clips as being representative of what I'm seeing of Horne in full games.

Horne in game here/there will swoop in and win a loose ball at stoppages and burst out of there, but it's a much lower frequency activity for him than you'd say of a Danger or Petracca when they play through the midfield and burst through stoppages and win it. Horne is not the hard ball winner a Danger or Petracca are and will never have that kind of size or strength. Even for the same age he doesn't have the same strength or power and doesn't feel like he's taking games over in the same way. He's not a big, imposing mid like that.

In terms of upside comparison for Horne

How about Riccutto? Same height. Same positions.

Again, I'm not seeing that same size/strength/power. Horne isn't imposing like Mark Ricciuto was and isn't that same cannonball around the ball.

I don't see the style of games as being all that comparable.

On career outcome though, I don't see Horne becoming a great of the game or Brownlow Medallist as Ricciuto was. Doesn't mean he can't, I'm just not predicting it. From those Adelaide teams from that same era, Horne might be closer to a Simon Goodwin for career outcome, which needless to say would be an exceptional outcome if it worked out that way.

 

[Chris25]

Also interested from you Chris25 as to where you place Horne regarding: What do you view the heights of Horne's career as being? Will he become the best midfielder in the competition one day? Will he win a Brownlow? How many All-Australian teams will he make?

I'm not going to claim he'll win a certain amount of awards. But I think he's the second best midfielder in the last 5 drafts - after only Rowell. And Adelaide would have taken a 17 year old Jason Horne at #1 last year if they were allowed.

 

[Mutineer]

I'm going off of what I see in game. I don't view any of the highlight clips as being representative of what I'm seeing of Horne in full games.

Horne in game here/there will swoop in and win a loose ball at stoppages and burst out of there, but it's a much lower frequency activity for him than you'd say of a Danger or Petracca when they play through the midfield and burst through stoppages and win it. Horne is not the hard ball winner a Danger or Petracca are and will never have that kind of size or strength. Even for the same age he doesn't have the same strength or power and doesn't feel like he's taking games over in the same way. He's not a big, imposing mid like that.



Again, I'm not seeing that same size/strength/power. Horne isn't imposing like Mark Ricciuto was and isn't that same cannonball around the ball.

I don't see the style of games as being all that comparable.

On career outcome though, I don't see Horne becoming a great of the game or Brownlow Medallist as Ricciuto was. Doesn't mean he can't, I'm just not predicting it. From those Adelaide teams from that same era, Horne might be closer to a Simon Goodwin for career outcome, which needless to say would be an exceptional outcome if it worked out that way.

But you're comparing fully fledged AFL players in Danger and Petracca with what they are today or over the years to Horne not with who they were at the same stage of their careers.

Do you think body wise and game wise Horne can't have the similar growth to that of Danger and Petracca?

 

[Knightmare]

I'm not going to claim he'll win a certain amount of awards. But I think he's the second best midfielder in the last 5 drafts - after only Rowell. And Adelaide would have taken a 17 year old Jason Horne at #1 last year if they were allowed.

Fair calls. If you asked me Horne or Thilthorpe today. I'd be taking Thilthrope. Though I do agree with you had Horne been in last year's draft Adelaide likely would have taken Horne ahead of Thilthorpe. I'd at the time of that draft have still taken Logan McDonald ahead of Horne, had Horne been in it, and I still would, with McDonald and Jamarra higher on my board at that time.

I'd add Smith and Walsh to Rowell of mids from the past 5 years I view favourably. With the likes of Anderson/Green/Phillips/Rayner/LDU/McCluggage in no particular order based on views of the time of their drafts players I'd have in the same conversation with Horne.

 

[Jugada]

Not sure how anyone could say with any sort of certainty that an 18yo won't develop any power and/or strength. Making comparisons to fully developed footballers seems like a pointless exercise

 

[briztoon]

I'm going off of what I see in game. I don't view any of the highlight clips as being representative of what I'm seeing of Horne in full games.

Horne in game here/there will swoop in and win a loose ball at stoppages and burst out of there, but it's a much lower frequency activity for him than you'd say of a Danger or Petracca when they play through the midfield and burst through stoppages and win it. Horne is not the hard ball winner a Danger or Petracca are and will never have that kind of size or strength. Even for the same age he doesn't have the same strength or power and doesn't feel like he's taking games over in the same way. He's not a big, imposing mid like that.



Again, I'm not seeing that same size/strength/power. Horne isn't imposing like Mark Ricciuto was and isn't that same cannonball around the ball.

I don't see the style of games as being all that comparable.

On career outcome though, I don't see Horne becoming a great of the game or Brownlow Medallist as Ricciuto was. Doesn't mean he can't, I'm just not predicting it. From those Adelaide teams from that same era, Horne might be closer to a Simon Goodwin for career outcome, which needless to say would be an exceptional outcome if it worked out that way.

 

[Rainsparks]

Horne doesn't nearly have Dangerfield's explosiveness. He's quick selectively, but he doesn't have those kinds of wheels or have that kind of power, or have those kinds of contested capabilities on that level, or those kinds of forward of centre capabilities. He's more-so a quick and one-touch ground ball winner and dramatically more defensively oriented and adept with his play compared to Danger.

Out of interest Knightmare do you know what Dangerfield and petraccas height and weight was in there draft years?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Knightmare]

But you're comparing fully fledged AFL players in Danger and Petracca with what they are today or over the years to Horne not with who they were at the same stage of their careers.

Do you think body wise and game wise Horne can't have the similar growth to that of Danger and Petracca?

View attachment 1172005

Don't forget with Dangerfield he was drafted one year out, so it would be like comparing Danger at that age to Horne last year.

2008 was one year before I started following the u18s, so I can't say I saw Danger at that age, but from what I've heard from Matt Rendell's reflections of the time, Danger (and Rich) in a AIS Academy game v a state league team at that time were the only two to really impose themselves physically and not look out of their depth. Danger I also understand in his draft year was playing across half-back rather than through the midfield making he and Horne not all that directly comparable.

Out of interest Knightmare do you know what Dangerfield and petraccas height and weight was in there draft years?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Petracca was 186cm, 92kg.

Horne is 184cm, 78kg.

Dangerfield, and again he was drafted a year earlier, but he would have been around 187cm and 83kg, also coming into the competition fairly strong, but just lacking endurance as with Petracca who also took time to develop that.

So they're bigger boys. Taller, but bigger and stronger for the same age.

 

[Rusty Beam]

Also, interested in some feedback for those who enjoy my monthly power rankings.

Do people prefer the strengths/weaknesses style of power rankings as per today's July Power Rankings including player comparisons, height/weight/club, why they moved up/down etc or the more general paragraph on each player with the progress and details there from my June power rankings and earlier?

Comparisons to players are always hard. No one is ever happy unless you compare them to the elite guns of the comp.

I am going to claim your comparison of Nick to Merrett though .

 

[Rusty Beam]

I appreciate the replies.

I'm moving more-so in the midfield version of Heeney direction for Horne.

I'm not seeing the level of explosion, power or strength with a Horne of a Danger/Petracca. I understand the comparisons, but I don't see Horne developing into anything like that. He doesn't nearly have that kind of upside or body that can allow him to do any of what makes Danger/Petracca special on anywhere near that level.

I think Heeney is a good comparison. It’s who stylistically he reminds me of.

Otherwise Sloane with more of a burst of speed in the first 20m.