Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[LittleG]

As a concept though, does saying no one year mean they'll say no if conditions change?

Hooker as an example if he has said no in the past has a very different decision to make if Essendon decide they no longer desire to have him as part of their list in 2022. Same story with Casboult at Carlton who they still need to make a decision on. Tarrant would also I'd agree as per your view would be a great get, and again they have to decide if they want him for another year. If any or all of those guys aren't wanted by their current clubs, I could see their minds changing about opportunities elsewhere. In particularly if it's a contender suggesting they're interested.

With these decisions for clubs with these veterans, that's a component of why veterans are so appealing to me. You can get them for free sometimes because clubs no longer want them, and that's an enormous opportunity if you can convince them to play on, as with when Hawthorn decided they didn't want Hodge/Mitchell/Lewis anymore, Roughead last year the same story, then Geelong with all the guys I've also mentioned, and Bartel may even have been another they forced out before he wanted to go, beyond those to join other clubs. Those kinds of opportunities for your Chapman's, Johnson's, Kelly's, Hunt's. That can happen. The most egregious example was no one wanting Brent Harvey when he was still durable, still one of the best kicks in the game, still covering the ground and not one player in the competition was ahead of him in both disposals and goals during the H+A season. That's why I love veterans from rival lists. Getting those names, and then bringing the leadership components, the culture components, helping the youth develop, all that helps so much towards both short term and long term success. There isn't a single club executing on that idea or they'd have ended up with the whole collection of those names + Brendon Goddard and among all the other veterans who were either forced into retirement and never AFL listed again or forced out and for nothing due to no meaningful competition added by other team lists. It may be and I speculate is the greatest untapped opportunity of them all.

Agree that for some veterans, they do get pushed out too early…. But then you also have veterans like Stef Martin who may not play again, as he is cooked less than 10 games into a 2 year deal. That is the risk. The cliff can come very quickly. We have been asking Stef every year for ages, just a shame he came once he was cooked. He has performed really well as a coach, so not a bad pickup….

Shame we didn’t pounce on Harvey. Perhaps there was too much animosity there to make it work.

 

[KingsRansom]

Knightmare Sorry if it has been asked already, but where do you see Saints profile and what do you think they need and who do you think they will target?

I'm hoping to get a top flight mid with first pick, owens and windhager in the draft and then peris and beilby.

How have Josiah kyle and Angus mclennan been travelling? Haven't heard much about them

 

[Prochard123]

Hi Knightmare, with season 2021 nearing its end, based on what you've seen so far, how would you revise your top 20 list from last year's draft?

 

[OxSaint]

Hi knightmare,

Who are the better dual sided players coming thought the draft this year? Mids and high half forwards in particular.

 

[Polo342]

Hey Knightmare, do you know anything about Eric Benning?

 

[JD1992]

How do you rate Harrison Andronaco at Calder Cannons, and Jack Rossimel Northern knights? Chances to be drafted? Strengths, Weaknesses?

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[Boots73]

Hi Knightmare with the Eagles looking to have a pick around the 10ish mark can see Ben Hobbs ,Josh Ward & Neil Erasmus been available which way would you go ?
Or can you see some elsewhere sliding down to Wc

 

[Knightmare]

Agree that for some veterans, they do get pushed out too early…. But then you also have veterans like Stef Martin who may not play again, as he is cooked less than 10 games into a 2 year deal. That is the risk. The cliff can come very quickly. We have been asking Stef every year for ages, just a shame he came once he was cooked. He has performed really well as a coach, so not a bad pickup….

Shame we didn’t pounce on Harvey. Perhaps there was too much animosity there to make it work.

Stef Martin on a two year deal is a risk. A good get given English needs that veteran to support him, take the pressure off of him rucking and to help with his development. With Martin's 2020 season poor and his body starting to break down then, that should have been a one year deal.

Brent Harvey was a rare case where he was pretty clearly even despite the games played and age worth a two year deal because there were no signs his body was breaking down/durability failing him. But generally, particularly when there is a risk factor shorter contracts are better.

Knightmare Sorry if it has been asked already, but where do you see Saints profile and what do you think they need and will do you think they will target?

I'm hoping to get a top flight mid with first pick, owens and windhager in the draft and then peris and beilby.

How have Josiah kyle and Angus mclennan been travelling? Haven't heard much about them

Saints have the second oldest list. x5 or older, and while there are a few good young guys, there aren't a lot.

Many will probably say it's as simple as you're an outside top-8 side and too old, and given that, you need to rebuild.

I don't see rebuilding helping sides or as the solution. We've seen teams such as Carlton and Melbourne in generations past have similar aging lists (Carlton tried this in two separate generations and are now on their second attempt at it) in building through the draft. What the Saints do well is identifying undervalued opposition list talent and selecting state leaguers. I'd keep doing that.

My view with the Saints is that a shuffle of some of the pieces is needed and a few players who don't fit well need shipping out. Brad Hill isn't a great fit. He needs to play for a side that plays at the MCG or some larger ground, as that's where the thrives. And other big salary pieces could also be shipped where possible in order to bring in some combination of other smaller money but still good piece.

McLennan played the two games earlier in the season. Haven't seen him since, but has shown some glimpses aerially from what I noted. Kyle is a speedy ground level forward and has been good for more than a goal per game this season for Dandenong. They're two others who could to some degree be tracked.

Hi Knightmare, with season 2021 nearing its end, based on what you've seen so far, how would you revise your top 20 list from last year's draft?

I actually did a revision mid-season for YouTube, though there would be further updates now with more play and some improving. If there is interest, I'll complete a further revision at seasons end. Probably no big spoiler, but I definitely like the talls early. It's the talls last year that were good.

Hi knightmare,

Who are the better dual sided players coming thought the draft this year? Mids and high half forwards in particular.

There are others further down the pool, but Rachele and Sonsie stand out up the top end and can both play mid/fwd. Rachele in particular is as good as they come by foot in this pool.

Hey Knightmare, do you know anything about Eric Benning?

Basically a key position height type who has played mostly ruck due to his high leap, though had the luxury to play more forward on the weekend which helped him with four goals, albeit in a blowout. He's one if he has a few more good games as a key position player Fremantle could consider as an NGA/rookie.

How do you rate Harrison Andronaco at Calder Cannons, and Jack Rossimel Northern knights? Chances to be drafted? Strengths, Weaknesses?

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Andronaco as a small mid I see as unlikely to get picked. He's speedy but needs to find more of it and if he's playing forward, hit the scoreboard more.

Rossimel can take a grab. He's good aerially and on the lead. He is strong and physically developed yet moves well. He's another where I'm not at this stage confident he gets picked either as he's probably a touch too short to play as a key forward at 193cm unless he keeps growing, so he may want to develop some midfield scope on top of his forward craft to appeal more to clubs for AFL purposes, as he's more a good key forward than a great one which isn't enough when you're a shorter type, yet physically developed.

Hi Knightmare with the Eagles looking to have a pick around the 10ish mark can see Ben Hobbs ,Josh Ward & Neil Erasmus been available which way would you go ?
Or can you see some elsewhere sliding down to Wc

Erasmus I would have thought would be available at 10. I'm not sure why he would go before 10. Hobbs I'd think is probably available as he's not a quick mid and one of those stagnant types of ball winners who when winning it inside never seems to win it on the move or at any speed. Ward could be a top-10 pick, but again is another where it's not guaranteed and he'd want a strong close to the season to ensure on more draft boards he's in that range as there does seem to be some variation on opinion.

If they're all available, Ward is my pick, and easily as the best and most complete midfielder of that group. Best skills and movement of the three, yet matches Hobbs as that top end accumulator both inside and outside.

Around 10 I'd be keenly keeping my eyes out for Matthew Roberts and Josh Ward. They're the two I'd really be wanting as those high conviction proven mids.

West Coast love their proven players who have produced for a number of years, so Roberts if there could be the pick.

Tyler Sonsie, Josh Sinn, Arlo Draper and Matthew Johnson are others coming into this season who had strong reputations also and if there would also no doubt be considered given that drafting tendency.

 

[TryAnHit]

How far ahead is Horne ahead of the next live pick? Would north go anyone else considering they already building a good young midfield with Simpkin, Thomas, LDU and Anderson.

 

[Matthew_14555]

How far ahead is Horne ahead of the next live pick? Would north go anyone else considering they already building a good young midfield with Simpkin, Thomas, LDU and Anderson.

+ Phillips and Powell

 

[Knightmare]

How far ahead is Horne ahead of the next live pick? Would north go anyone else considering they already building a good young midfield with Simpkin, Thomas, LDU and Anderson.

North Melbourne presumably take the pick and of the live picks go for Horne.

That said, there is a reason North Melbourne shouldn't as you're outlining and a lot of others have. North Melbourne's midfield is solid and doesn't need a lot more.

Whether it's going to get Cerra and a pick. Perhaps that pick can be made into a combination of picks eg. would Adelaide offer their 2021 and 2022 first round picks for pick 1 and a mid draft pick let's say? Would Collingwood give up a De Goey/Maynard package for pick 1 and some other pick to avoid a pick one bid on Daicos and start a rebuild? Maybe Collingwood think they can bid on Darcy at 1, if that's matched, take Horne at 2, then a bid would come at 3 on Daicos to reduce that cost. They're three different styles of trades and examples of the types of opportunities there could be.

There are other clubs that need midfielders more, so there should be someone willing to offer something big. My view is North Melbourne should not just listen, but make offers if there is something that will do more to improve the team.

 

[Psicosis]

How far ahead is Horne ahead of the next live pick? Would north go anyone else considering they already building a good young midfield with Simpkin, Thomas, LDU and Anderson.

Considering the top 10 talent pool (predominantly mids) I don't think Horne is less of a need then the likes of Roberts, Callaghan, Hobbs etc. In fact, his ability to play forward is something that I believe will really appeal to us vs other candidates. In terms of our midfield group, I still think we lack another genuine goal kicking mid so Horne ticks another box there. Based on reports our recruiters were at the South Adelaide game on the weekend, so would have got a nice close look at him turning it on in the second quarter. Our recruiters & coach have also been on record the last month saying "We can never have too many inside outside midfielders".

Nothings for certain & we have a track record of going a little of the consensus media draft script, however the big thing that Noble prioritizes (possibly above talent) is competitiveness/Leadership, which Horne by all reports personifies - As does Phillips.

The three I think we'd like outside of Horne are Callaghan, Hobbs & Gibcus. Callaghan gives us another tall mid/elite user, whilst Hobbs is a competitive beast & Gibcus is a need in terms of KPD.

ATEOTD I'd say it's extremely unlikely that we pass on Horne if we finish 18th, but will likely still listen to offers from opposition clubs.

 

[Wild Bill]

North Melbourne presumably take the pick and of the live picks go for Horne.

That said, there is a reason North Melbourne shouldn't as you're outlining and a lot of others have. North Melbourne's midfield is solid and doesn't need a lot more.

Whether it's going to get Cerra and a pick. Perhaps that pick can be made into a combination of picks eg. would Adelaide offer their 2021 and 2022 first round picks for pick 1 and a mid draft pick let's say? Would Collingwood give up a De Goey/Maynard package for pick 1 and some other pick to avoid a pick one bid on Daicos and start a rebuild? Maybe Collingwood think they can bid on Darcy at 1, if that's matched, take Horne at 2, then a bid would come at 3 on Daicos to reduce that cost. They're three different styles of trades and examples of the types of opportunities there could be.

There are other clubs that need midfielders more, so there should be someone willing to offer something big. My view is North Melbourne should not just listen, but make offers if there is something that will do more to improve the team.

Just take Horne and move on - he is way too exciting a prospect to roll the dice and trade away. We made an interesting call last year with Phillips - hoping no more surprises with Horne. Callaghan makes me nervous as he is more of the type of mid we need but have to stay with Horne.

Sets up our midfield for a long time to come.

 

[blueiris]

Adelaide is the most likely to bid on Darcy and Daicos as they are a team that’s bid on teams more than anyone else

 

[Mutineer]

Adelaide is the most likely to bid on Darcy and Daicos as they are a team that’s bid on teams more than anyone else

Think we've still got a way to go to catch up with Richmond.

 

[Mordecai]

July AFL Draft Power Rankings: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...daicos-jason-horne-sam-darcy-duke-top-billing


1. Nick Daicos (Collingwood - Father-Son)
Best position: General midfielder/general forward
Height, weight: 183cm, 72kg
Recruited from: Oakleigh Chargers
Projected draft range: 1-2
Plays like: Zach Merrett
June ranking: 1
Rationale: On performance to date Daicos has been the clear standout without a close equal. Averaging 36 disposals and two goals per game, Daicos has starred in every one of his games. He also led the way for the AFL Academy in their match against Geelong's VFL side, with team high disposals, contested possessions, clearances inside 50s, shots on goal and score assists.
Strengths:
Composure in traffic
Decision making under pressure
Draws free kicks from high tackles
Agility
Evasion
Production
Go-to-guy around the ground
Scoreboard impact
Inside-outside midfield balance
Versatility to impact games both through the midfield and up forward
Stoppage work
Contested ball winning
Consistency
AFL ready-to-go game
Weaknesses:
Application defensively

2. Jason Horne
Best position: Inside midfield/general forward
Height, weight: 184cm, 78kg
Recruited from: South Adelaide
Projected draft range: 1-3
Plays like: Jarryd Lyons
June ranking: 2
Rationale: Remains a solid #2 at this point on performance and has displayed both consistency and gradual improvement in the SANFL. His pressure and application defensively has been a staple to his play.
Strengths:
Consistency of application defensively
Pressure applied to the ball carrier
Strong tackler
Aerial marking
Contested marking
Takes on the game with his run
Evasion
Impact per possession
Damaging ball user
One-touch ground ball winner
Contested ball winning
Proven against senior state league opposition
Versatility to impact games both through the midfield and up forward
Scoreboard impact
AFL ready-to-go game
Weaknesses:
Consistency from game to game
Consistency of impact offensively

3. Sam Darcy (Western Bulldogs - Father-Son)
Best position: Key forward
Height, weight: 204cm, 75kg
Recruited from: Oakleigh Chargers
Projected draft range: 1-5
Plays like: Max King
June ranking: 5
Rationale: On the back of his dominant Under-19 trial match, Darcy forces his way into the top-3 and enters the pick one discussion. With more games like that, Darcy can push his way higher up this draft board, though will need a larger sample size of dominance to do so. In a draft lacking in the way of premier talls, Darcy is by far and away the standard of excellence.
Strengths:
Rate of improvement
One grab contested marking
Long reach and takes marks fully extended
Attack on the ball aerially
Early reading of the drop of the ball
Protects the drop zone
Versatility to impact games as a key forward, key defender and through the ruck
Agility
One-touch at ground level
Instinctive finisher around goal
Speed to create separation on the lead
Weaknesses:
Endurance
Repeat speed/repeat efforts
Strength
Will require time to develop before he can impact AFL games regularly

4. Matthew Roberts
Best position: General midfield/general forward
Height, weight: 183cm, 81kg
Recruited from: South Adelaide
Projected draft range: 3-10
Plays like: Dayne Beams
June ranking: 4
Rationale: Last playing in May, Roberts has missed time with an ankle injury. Despite Sam Darcy's rise, Roberts has been able to hold his spot due to the inconsistent play of Tyler Sonsie. Roberts has been one of this year's most consistent performers and is one of the premier ball winners and most influential both through the midfield and up forward in this draft.
Strengths:
One-touch below the knees
Endurance
Work rate
Spread from the contest
Contested ball winning
Clean hands in traffic
Distribution by hand
Damaging and penetrating left foot kick
Places kicks out in front of forwards to lead onto
Overhead marking
Inside-outside midfield balance
Versatility to impact games both through the midfield and up forward
Scoreboard impact
Strong tackler
AFL ready-to-go game
Weaknesses:
Prone to rushing under pressure and bombing long by foot
Would benefit from lowering his eyes more and looking to hit up shorter targets more often

5. Josh Rachele
Best position: General forward/general midfield
Height, weight: 180cm, 78kg
Recruited from: Murray Bushranges
Projected draft range: 5-15
Plays like: Alan Didak
June ranking: 6
Rationale: Despite the rise of Sam Darcy and Ben Hobbs, Rachele who is this draft's premier kick moves up one spot on the back of his performance against Bendigo. What was special about his performance against Bendigo was when injected into centre bounces in the third quarter, stoppage after stoppage he won first possession and was unstoppable. Having those capabilities in addition to the damage he does forward of centre with ball in hand makes him one of this draft's most exciting dual position threats.
Strengths:
Best in class level precision kick
Kicks placed out in front of targets to lead onto
Scoreboard impact
First possession winning at stoppages
Explosive speed
Agility
Forward pressure
Tackling
Aerial marking threat
Overhead marking
Ground level craft
Versatility to impact games both as a forward and through the midfield
AFL ready-to-go game
Weaknesses:
Finds little easy outside ball
Endurance
Consistency

6. Ben Hobbs
Best position: Inside midfield
Height, weight: 183cm, 80kg
Recruited from: Greater Western Victoria
Projected draft range: 3-10
Plays like: Jacob Hopper
June ranking: Outside top-20
Rationale: With only one full game early in the season before missing an extended stretch of time with injury, Hobbs has stepped up several gears. Appearing like a strong bodied, aggressive ball winning midfielder, Hobbs against Murray and again in the first trial match against Vic Metro has demonstrated in recent weeks a level of diversity to his game that wasn't apparent in his round two match against Geelong Falcons, leading to his sharp move up this draft board. Scoreboard impact and outside accumulation capabilities weren't apparent earlier in the year but have been unexpected strengths since his return, helping his standing in this year's pool.
Strengths:
First possession winner at stoppages
Contested ball winning
Tackling
Distribution by hand
Scoreboard impact
Outside accumulation and involvement around the ground
Versatility to push forward as part of a large midfield rotation as required
Reading of the ball in flight
Overhead marking
Production
AFL ready-to-go game
Weaknesses:
Rarely wins the ball at speed which leads to limited time and space in congestion
Speed
Athleticism

7. Finn Callaghan
Best position: Inside midfield
Height, weight: 189cm, 82kg
Recruited from: Sandringham Dragons
Projected draft range: 3-10
Plays like: Jared Polec
June ranking: 11
Rationale: Callaghan's appeal has risen consistently since his move to play inside midfield. What makes Callaghan special and why he will be appearing in a lot of top-5s at this stage is his work in traffic. He possesses the time and space in traffic of a Scott Pendlebury, yet a burst of speed and dynamic movement on the move more like a Marcus Bontempelli. Callaghan is an upside pick a club may speculate on inside the top-5, though with questions around his aggression and how hard he is willing to go to either win the football or tackle showing up in his recent game against Eastern, there are a few others who look like safer selections at this stage.
Strengths:
Rare time, space and composure in traffic
Evasion
Agility
Sidestep
Speed
Takes on the game at speed with ball in hand
Hits contests at speed and times his moves well to receive on the burst
Work rate
Endurance
Overlap run
Class and composure under pressure to hit his targets by hand or foot
Skill execution by hand and foot targets
Versatility to play inside or outside midfield
Weaknesses:
Contested ball winning
Tackling
Lack of aggression

8. Josh Sinn
Best position: General defence
Height, weight: 186cm, 72kg
Recruited from: Sandringham Dragons
Projected draft range: 3-15
Plays like: Lachie Ash
June ranking: 7
Rationale: Returning from an early season hamstring injury to face off against Oakleigh, Sinn reminded recruiters how eye-popping his run with ball in hand is. If Sinn can improve his consistency by foot over medium and long distances and win more of his own ball, he has the scope to push higher up this draft board. Sinn drops one spot due to the rise of Sam Darcy and Ben Hobbs.
Strengths:
Agility to stop on a dime, then accelerate in another direction, wrong-footing opponents and burst past them at speed
Speed
Breaks the lines with ball in hand at a high frequency
Versatility to impact games both through the midfield and in defence
Reliable short kick to target
Kick placement out in front of inside-50m targets to lead onto
Weaknesses:
Production
Contested ball winning
Inconsistency by foot over medium and long distance
Consistency

9. Tyler Sonsie
Best position: General midfield/general forward
Height, weight: 181cm, 76kg
Recruited from: Eastern Ranges
Projected draft range: 3-15
Plays like: Nick Dal Santo
June ranking: 3
Rationale: Sonsie has been among the most erratic performers to open the season with some big games headlined by his 24 disposals and two goals in his VFL match for Box Hill, and then he has had his poor games where he has found little of the ball and had no meaningful influence. His poor performance against Sandringham is his latest below expectation performance with positive moments few and far between before he left the game late with bone bruising to his knee. With Sonsie's inconsistency and the stark difference between his best and worst games, he has been forced down draft boards in favour of others.
Strengths:
Placement of kicks out in front of targets inside 50m to lead up onto
Composure with ball in hand
Decision making under pressure
Burst of acceleration
Line-breaking run
Contested ball winning
Offensively damaging enough to break games open in a matter of minutes
Versatility to impact games both through the midfield and up forward
Inside-outside midfield balance
Scoreboard impact
Weaknesses:
Difference between his best and worst games
Invisible in his worst games
Not a four quarter performer

10. Connor MacDonald
Best position: Balanced midfield/general forward
Height, weight: 184cm, 77kg
Recruited from: Dandenong Stingrays
Projected draft range: 10-40
Plays like: Luke Parker
June ranking: 8
Rationale: A goalkicking midfielder, MacDonald has been prolific and consistent in the games he has appeared for Dandenong early in the season before school football commitments began. The only reason for MacDonald dropping two spots is the rise of Sam Darcy and Ben Hobbs.
Strengths:
Contested ball winning
Tackling
Scoreboard impact
Work rate
Reliable skills
Aerial marking
Acceleration
Work rate
Endurance
Inside/outside midfield balance
Able to impact games both through the midfield and up forward
Consistency
Production
Weaknesses:
Impact per possession

11. Josh Ward
Best position: Balanced midfielder
Height, weight: 181cm, 74kg
Recruited from: Northern Knights
Projected draft range: 5-25
Plays like: Marc Murphy
June ranking: Outside top-20
Rationale: On the back of firstly a 34-disposal performance where he broke even with Nick Daicos and a team best performance for Vic Metro in the first trial match against Vic Country, Ward has announced himself as one of this draft's most desirable. He has shot his way into first round calculations and is working his way into the conversation with this year's best Victorians.
Strengths:
Skills
Placement of kicks out in front of targets inside 50m to leadup onto
Lowers his eyes for kicks inside 50m
Vision
Decision making under pressure
Composure
Finishing around goal
Agility
Run and carry
Speed
Inside/outside midfield balanced
Works hard both ways
Rises to the big occasion
Weaknesses:
Able but only moderate volume contested ball winner
Strength

12. Bodhi Uwland (Gold Coast - Academy)
Best position: Inside midfield/general defence
Height, weight: 185cm, 84kg
Recruited from: Gold Coast
Projected draft range: 20-60
Plays like: Luke Hodge
June ranking: 9
Rationale: Uwland earned his way onto this draft board through his striking play in his NAB League match against both Dandenong and Brisbane. With the way he impacts games, with his damaging and penetrating kick, contested ball winning and how he bursts through stoppages and shrugs tackles so easily, there is sizable scope to develop. In more recent weeks after starting the season with Gold Coast's VFL side, he has earned more VFL opportunities and has shown improvement. Uwland only drops three spots due to the rising stocks of Sam Darcy, Ben Hobbs and Josh Ward. At this stage Uwland is not as highly regarded in clubland as he features on this draft board, but with further performances like his two NAB League games and that could change in a hurry as he gets in front of more sets of eyes.
Strengths:
Penetrating and damaging but reliable kick
Kicks placed out to the advantage side for teammates to lead onto
Decision making with ball in hand
Vision
Contested ball winning
Powerful shrugging of tackles
Aggression
Physical edge
Evasion
Agility
Acceleration
Leap
Versatility to impact games either through the midfield, defence or across half-forward
Weaknesses:
Endurance
Work rate

13. Hugh Jackson
Best position: Outside midfield
Height, weight: 180cm, 69kg
Recruited from: North Adelaide
Projected draft range: 10-30
Plays like: Andrew Gaff
June ranking: 10
Rationale: With Jackson's consistent and prolific SANFL Under-18s play, he remains firmly inside the top-15 on this draft board and only drops three spots due to the rise of others. Jackson has been a high production and classy accumulator throughout the year, averaging 33 disposals per game. In more recent weeks Jackson has started hitting the scoreboard more with three goals against West Adelaide in round 11 his first week with multiple goals.
Strengths:
Production
Classy and reliable ball user
Placement of kicks inside-50m out in front of targets to lead onto
Run with ball in hand
Work rate
Endurance
Consistency
One-touch at ground level
Reading of the ball off hands
Weaknesses:
Strength

14. Arlo Draper
Best position: Inside midfield/general forward
Height, weight: 185cm, 71kg
Recruited from: South Adelaide
Projected draft range: 5-25
Plays like: James Harmes
June ranking: Outside top-20
Rationale: On the back of a strong month of midfield play splitting his time between the SANFL Under-18s and Reserves, Draper has earned his way into the top-20. What's immediately striking with Draper is while his frame is light, he's one of South Australia's premier contested ball winners and stoppage players. The bonus is that he's a dual position threat with his capabilities forward of centre. Draper's 10 goals from his eight Under-18 matches greatly add to the appeal. Draper will miss some time with an ankle injury, but his stocks are unlikely to be impacted as someone who has proven himself over a long period of time.
Strengths:
Contested ball winning
Tackling
Stoppage craft
Composure in traffic
Clean hands
Lowers his eyes for kicks inside 50m
Overhead marking
Contested marking
Agility
Evasion
Acceleration
Takes on the game with his run
Influential both through the midfield and up forward
Scoreboard impact
Weaknesses:
Strength
Lack of outside accumulation
Inconsistent kick placement

15. Joshua Browne
Best position: Inside midfielder
Height, weight: 185cm, 77kg
Recruited from: East Fremantle
Projected draft range: 15-45
Plays like: Tom Mitchell
June ranking: Outside top-20
Rationale: Browne has been consistent throughout the season so far in the WAFL Colts averaging 33 disposals in his first eight matches and has impressed as a first possession winner at stoppages who plays a mostly balanced and well-rounded game. What has moved the needle with Browne to work his way into the top-20 is the scoreboard impact component he is adding to his game, with three goals from six scoring shots against Perth hopefully a sign of things to come from the ball magnet.
Strengths:
Contested ball winning
Awareness and composure in traffic
Endurance
Work rate
Inside/outside balance
Tackling
Aggression
Consistency
Reading of the drop of the ball
Plays hard both ways
Weaknesses:
Impact per possession
Lack of hurt factor by foot
Speed

16. Matthew Johnson
Best position: Inside midfield
Height, weight: 192cm, 80kg
Recruited from: Subiaco
Projected draft range: 10-30
Plays like: Will Setterfield
June ranking: 12
Rationale: After a three-game stint playing in the WAFL at League level, Johnson has returned to the WAFL Colts. His best performance so far has been a 30-disposal effort against Perth, though with others improving and Johnson not taking the next step with his football this year, others have improved past him which has led to his drop. As a tall midfielder though there remains plenty of interest based around how classy of an operator he is and what his upside could look like if realised.
Strengths:
Composure
Class and sound decision making with ball in hand
Evasion in traffic
Agility
Reliable ball user who displays vision on his kicks
Places kicks out in front of leading targets inside-50m to lead onto
Weaknesses:
Production
Consistency

17. Neil Erasmus
Best position: Utility
Height, weight: 188cm, 80kg
Recruited from: Subiaco
Projected draft range: 10-25
Plays like: Kyle Langford
June ranking: 13
Rationale: An improver this year, Erasmus in each of his games this year has been a reliable performer through the midfield and up on a wing, yet to drop below 27 disposals in the WAFL Colts. Erasmus drops due to no fault of his own other than the improvement and strong play of others.
Strengths:
Early ball reader in flight who consistently gets to the drop of the ball
Intercepting marking
Strong overhead mark
Aerial marking
Leap
Big game performer
Versatility to play inside/outside midfield or as a forward
Scoreboard impact
Consistency
Rate of improvement
Weaknesses:
Consistency by foot
Stoppage work

18. Ned Long
Best position: Inside midfield/general forward
Height, weight: 192cm, 88kg
Recruited from: Northern Knights
Projected draft range: 30-late
Plays like: Taylor Garner
June ranking: 14
Rationale: Impressing early in the season through the midfield and up forward, Long is not only able as a tall ball winning midfielder, but he's also a threat up forward kicking seven goals in from his three NAB League matches so far. Having played school football since, Long's drop can be attributed to the improvement shown by others.
Strengths:
Scoreboard impact
Versatility to impact games both as a forward and ball winning midfielder
Contested ball winning
Tackling
Marking threat forward of centre
Reliable skills
Places kicks out in front of leading targets inside-50m to lead onto
Weaknesses:
Speed
Agility
Endurance
Low impact per possession

19. Josh Fahey
Best position: General defence
Height, weight: 186cm, 77kg
Recruited from: GWS Giants
Projected draft range: 10-30
Plays like: Trent McKenzie
June ranking: 15
Rationale: A kickout specialist who generates meaningful drive with his precision, long kick is among this year's premier rebounding defenders at this point. The standout game so far from Fahey was his MCC President's Medal winning performance for AFL Academy in their 130-point loss to Geelong's VFL side which remains in the minds of recruiters. On Saturday night Fahey played his third VFL game for Greater Western Sydney's VFL side. Fahey's drop can be attributed to the improvement shown by others.
Strengths:
Precise 65m penetration on kick
Drive generation out of defence by foot
Kickout candidate
Handball receive candidate in defence
Run in support and overlap run
One-on-one defence
Reading of the ball in flight
While best suited up the field has the versatility to push up onto a wing as required
Weaknesses:
Contested ball winning

20. Mac Andrew (Melbourne Next-Generation Academy)
Best position: Ruck
Height, weight: 200cm, 70kg
Recruited from: Dandenong Stingrays
Projected draft range: 10-30
Plays like: Paddy Ryder
June ranking: 16
Rationale: Andrew is a light bodied ruckman and long-term project player who is likely to spend his early years developing as a key position player while he adds muscle to his light frame. With an incredible leap and soft hands, the hope is over time he becomes a threat through the ruck. Signs from the AFL Academy game when thrown into the ruck in the final quarter caught the eye and earned him a spot on this board. The only reason for Andrew's drop is the rise of others.
Strengths:
Leap
Soft hands through ruck
Hitouts to advantage
Clean below the knees
Tackling
Mobile
Clean by hand and foot
Reading of the ball in flight
Contested marking
Weaknesses:
Strength
Too light at this stage to play through the ruck and will need to start out his development as a key position player
Endurance

 

[Knightmare]

Considering the top 10 talent pool (predominantly mids) I don't think Horne is less of a need then the likes of Roberts, Callaghan, Hobbs etc. In fact, his ability to play forward is something that I believe will really appeal to us vs other candidates. In terms of our midfield group, I still think we lack another genuine goal kicking mid so Horne ticks another box there. Based on reports our recruiters were at the South Adelaide game on the weekend, so would have got a nice close look at him turning it on in the second quarter. Our recruiters & coach have also been on record the last month saying "We can never have too many inside outside midfielders".

Nothings for certain & we have a track record of going a little of the consensus media draft script, however the big thing that Noble prioritizes (possibly above talent) is competitiveness/Leadership, which Horne by all reports personifies - As does Phillips.

The three I think we'd like outside of Horne are Callaghan, Hobbs & Gibcus. Callaghan gives us another tall mid/elite user, whilst Hobbs is a competitive beast & Gibcus is a need in terms of KPD.

ATEOTD I'd say it's extremely unlikely that we pass on Horne if we finish 18th, but will likely still listen to offers from opposition clubs.

I don't rate Horne as a forward and I don't rate him on the outside either. I watched the game on the weekend.

I'll cover Horne in my weekly wrap, and it is his best game that I've seen this season, but all three goals came in Q2. So that sounds promising on the surface.

But to get granular and tell the real story.

His first he drew a free with front position, but put a lot of mustard on it and was lucky to have it awarded, converted from 40m. Won a loose ball i50 on the move for a finish from 40m, there was no one near him any the next player could have finished it. His final goal was a 55m set shot where he went on that big ark to get the distance. None of them were forward talent kind of goals, they were midfielders goals.

I've found over the span of games when he's forward of centre he's mostly quiet and struggles to find the footy, but struggles more to hit the scoreboard. There are better forwards than Horne in this draft. Even playing on the outside I don't rate his capabilities, as he doesn't find that outside ball. If you want versatility, Horne isn't your guy. Horne is clearly best suited as a midfielder and if you're picking him, you're picking him as an inside mid.

Gibcus isn't someone I'd consider for a moment early. I don't rate him as a top-20 talent, let alone top-10. Hobbs I'm not sure I'd pick top-10. He's such a slow mid and isn't help by being such a stagnant ball winning who would have to win just about the lowest frequency of his ball at stoppages on the move. Callaghan could be one to consider if you move down a spot or two though and would be that something different midfielder if you're looking for a different ingredient.

Just take Horne and move on - he is way too exciting a prospect to roll the dice and trade away. We made an interesting call last year with Phillips - hoping no more surprises with Horne. Callaghan makes me nervous as he is more of the type of mid we need but have to stay with Horne.

Sets up our midfield for a long time to come.

I wouldn't be closed minded to exploring opportunities, but it's obviously would have to be a worthwhile opportunity that is just as good or better and addresses more pressing positional needs. And more often than not with clubs so conservative around trades, it's unlikely anything worthwhile is offered anyway. Though you can never say never.

Callaghan is a risk, and a boom/bust pick. You'd want to be confident he'll improve his aggression and become a better contested ball winner and tackler to justify taking him as one of those first few.

View attachment 1200726

For weaknesses it would have been application defensively, but in his past game or two he has shown he can.

Why he's consistent? He goes for 29-41d every week and kick his 1-3 goals. He hasn't had a lull in production in a single game this year.

 

[PMBangers]

Won a loose ball i50 on the move for a finish from 40m, there was no one near him any the next player could have finished i

He copped contact whilst executing the pick up/ before taking the shot

 

[archerboy]

His first he drew a free with front position, but put a lot of mustard on it and was lucky to have it awarded

Weird, you put "draws free kicks from high tackles" as a strength for Daicos but dismiss it for Horne.

 

[blueiris]

If Horne does go pick #1 like most expect who is next does Adelaide take local boy Roberts at pick 2 if they don’t bid on Darcy and Daicos?

 

[Smythe]

If Horne does go pick #1 like most expect who is next does Adelaide take local boy Roberts at pick 2 if they don’t bid on Darcy and Daicos?

they should go Callaghan

 

[Knightmare]

He copped contact whilst executing the pick up/ before taking the shot

The tackler was diving and off balance to such an extent he barely got a hand on Horne and there was contact that came after Horne had executed the kick. It was a classy finish, take nothing away from him. The point with that goal, as with Horne's other goals is it was a midfielders goal. He doesn't need to play forward to kick those and would probably find it easier kicking them as a midfielder.

He's a high flyer who has taken some nice marks, but he's not an i50 marking force. And he's I'd even go as far as to say one touch at ground level with his pickups on the move at high speed at stoppage other than what he does defensively that next best component to his game, but he's not that freakish crumber/finisher/playmaker i50 either.

He's a genuine midfielder. That's where he provides value and plays a superb two way game.

Weird, you put "draws free kicks from high tackles" as a strength for Daicos but dismiss it for Horne.

It's not a strength for Horne on the same level. Daicos is a freak drawing frees, it stood out as one of his primary gifts from game one around the ball. You really have to get down and tackle him waist height if you're going to tackle Daicos or he'll draw a high free on you. Horne isn't on that level.

If Horne does go pick #1 like most expect who is next does Adelaide take local boy Roberts at pick 2 if they don’t bid on Darcy and Daicos?

I haven't heard Roberts discussed at 2, though I believe he would be deserving of that discussion. He's one of the best mids in this pool and despite what the Horne apologists would have you think, there isn't a lot of separation between the two. Roberts came back this weekend and had a solid game in the Reserves and hopefully we see him back into the League side pronto so he can show as he did in his first League game he's not all that far off Horne. It would be cool seeing Draper in there also, it would save me the time and need to watch the Reserves, but he's probably not quite ready.

Likely pick for Adelaide if I'm doing a phantom and that pick doesn't move is Callaghan at this stage. Adelaide need height and guys who can move and he does both.

 

[PMBangers]

The tackler was diving and off balance to such an extent he barely got a hand on Horne and there was contact that came after Horne had executed the kick.

Yeah nah, he's flung himself and knocked Horne at the hips, put pressure on the actual execution of the pick up and the follow up opponent has put pressure on the kick

 

[Knightmare]

Yeah nah, he's flung himself and knocked Horne at the hips, put pressure on the actual execution of the pick up and the follow up opponent has put pressure on the kick

Horne has strength through the hips, no doubt about it, but the tackle attempt was just a knock on the hips. Nothing more. Horne does get the kick off moments before any contact is made. Though to his credit. Didn't flinch in taking the kick and knowing the contact was coming.

 

[the big lebowski]

Horne has strength through the hips, no doubt about it, but the tackle attempt was just a knock on the hips. Nothing more. Horne does get the kick off moments before any contact is made. Though to his credit. Didn't flinch in taking the kick and knowing the contact was coming.

You do realise Horne is 78kgs don’t you? If you don’t rate him, all good no issue with that. But the way you talk about him you just dismiss the disadvantages he has playing against full grown men.

If Horne played in the nab league, do you think he’d average 30 possessions a game?