Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[chopflop]

Max Lynch is likely to explore opportunities externally in the hope that he can become a number one ruckman elsewhere. I'd anticipate he would get Collingwood a second round pick

You'll get a bag of s. Look at what hawthorn for pittonet from Carlton... That's about Lynch's value. 2nd round pick

 

[Swiggy]

Do you think one of amiss Williams or JVR will get to freo 2nd pick?

 

[Knightmare]

You'll get a bag of s. Look at what hawthorn for pittonet from Carlton... That's about Lynch's value. 2nd round pick

The interesting note with Lynch is Collingwood haven't performed any worse when he has rucked compared to when Grundy was rucking, so there have been Collingwood fans calling for Grundy to be traded and that Lynch should be built around as the #1 ruckman.

On the topic of Pittonet. Has Pittonet in value terms exceeded the cost it took to acquire him in your view? And if so, what do you believe in hindsight to have been fair value?

 

[Knightmare]

Do you think one of amiss Williams or JVR will get to freo 2nd pick?

I suspect one or more of those three will be available. Williams I think is a good chance and the most likely as he's not super athletic. Though Amiss and JVR I'm not even going to discount being there, with neither in my view at least clear-cut first round picks, and players I at least rate outside my top-20 power rankings.

 

[chopflop]

The interesting note with Lynch is Collingwood haven't performed any worse when he has rucked compared to when Grundy was rucking, so there have been Collingwood fans calling for Grundy to be traded and that Lynch should be built around as the #1 ruckman.

On the topic of Pittonet. Has Pittonet in value terms exceeded the cost it took to acquire him in your view? And if so, what do you believe in hindsight to have been fair value?

I'm not saying what he is worth. Maybe he is as good as a second round pick. I'm saying what you'll get is similar to Pittonet. VFL dominant rucks, OOC looking for more opportunity and ultimately unproven at AFL level don't fetch second rounders. Maybe you'll get less because of your ongoing salary cap issues

 

[LittleG]

The interesting note with Lynch is Collingwood haven't performed any worse when he has rucked compared to when Grundy was rucking, so there have been Collingwood fans calling for Grundy to be traded and that Lynch should be built around as the #1 ruckman.

On the topic of Pittonet. Has Pittonet in value terms exceeded the cost it took to acquire him in your view? And if so, what do you believe in hindsight to have been fair value?

Pies were better off letting Grundy or De Goey going and keep Treloar. Lynch is decent and I hope he is out starting ruck next year…. Moore is in the top few players in the AFL and needs to be built around, while Grundy could be replaced by Lynch. Apart from bringing in too many players from other teams, I thought the Pies missed a great opportunity to trade Grundy and then not have a fire sale last year.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

I'd say a floor of Willem Drew, with a ceiling not so similar to anyone we've seen as he provides a unique combination of pressure acts and ground ball winning on the move at speed where it's a sort of blend we haven't seen before, or at least that I can think of. I'll elaborate more on this in my weekly wrap where I cover Horne.

The Dusty/Petracca comparisons I don't like for so many reasons. He's not that forward and I don't see him becoming nearly that big bodied. But on the other hand, he's also a genuine two way player and embarrasses them both with the effort he applies working the other way and pressuring like his life depends on it. Overhead and as a contested ball winner I don't see him as Fyfe either, as I don't see him achieving that volume. Others here seem to disagree, but I'm not seeing Horne as likely to become the best midfielder in the competition. If there is a point in time where he becomes top-5, that's enormous and where I place his upside. With the mid case being something more like he should be a top 25 midfielder in the competition for a good stretch of his career, as that 10-35 calibre mid.



If I can have Cerra and Adelaide's 2022 first round pick or Horne. I'm going Cerra and the future pick, as I don't see meaningful separation between Horne and Cerra.

The bonus with Cerra is, he's the more versatile and skilled player, so he gives more options around the ground. He can play outside if you need him to, in defence, though I actually think he is untapped as a forward and should spend some time resting there when he's not playing through the midfield. He had junior games where he would kick 3-4 goals up front, so it's something else I'd be looking as with LDU to incorporate into his game and make into a weapon.

Disagree again, Horne's ability above his head and his leap for someone who's what mid 180s is superb, feels like a 190cm player because of his leap and overall strong hands and ability above his head that can be see similar to Fyfe, Fyfe had a good lot of explosive speed before he broke his leg never had the skill Horne has in terms of ball use tho. Horne has that pure strength that Fyfe, Dusty, Tracca always had even as juniors and smaller players and i can see Horne getting to a Dusty + size, think he'll suit better at Dusty's size rather than Petracca or Fyfes because of pure speed and explosiveness. Fyfe nowadays isnt what he was so he wont get that big unless he breaks a leg and Petracca is someone who is explosive but isn't lightning where i feel he can be a quicker Dusty type. Like i can see all types of comparisons with those 3 and overall his ceiling is a best player in the comp. Forward of centre with him playing as a forward at Senior level instead of straight away as a mid the whole time is good, plays well down there on a flank etc, dangerous around goals and at ground level but as i said leap and ability above his head as a deep target is danger. Had 20 something with 3 snags on the weekend and dominated. Love his game.

 

[Flawed Genius]

Willem Drew

28

Willem Drew

Age

26

Ht

188cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.9

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

8.7

5star

M

2.2

2star

T

5.6

5star

CL

2.3

4star

No current season stats available

D

18.0

5star

K

9.2

4star

HB

8.8

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

4.2

5star

CL

2.8

5star

.

Saints preserve us

 

[Sphynx]

Collingwood traded out of this year's draft with GWS possessing their first round pick.

Yes, are you trying to say this was a good deal?

It's without doubt the worst piece of list management in the last two decades.

No offence, but I hope Rawlings and Luff aren't taking list management classes from Ned Guy.

I'm not sure why you're comparing Lynch to guys in Comben and Edwards who are more forwards than rucks. Lynch is a ruckman who behind Grundy, as was the case once upon a time with Witts isn't likely ever to get senior opportunities. I suspect he requests a trade at seasons end as in his two games he showed he's a capable AFL ready ruckman.


Max Lynch is likely to explore opportunities externally in the hope that he can become a number one ruckman elsewhere. I'd anticipate he would get Collingwood a second round pick.

He would make sense as a list fit for the Dogs, though the Pies would probably want more than a very late second rounder from the Dogs. If the Dogs add in a surplus player who the Pies like with that pick, that's where I expect his valuation to be around, as he's a ready-made capable young ruckman who would allow English not to have to be that lead ruck.

Max Lynch is a 4th year player who was taken in the 3rd round of the rookie draft who has played 3 AFL games.....

Witts had played 40 games for Collingwood prior to being traded.

We have Tristian Xerri you know? I don't see any benefit for North going after Max Lynch, especially as part of a sweetner for pick 1.

It's fantasy land stuff.

 

[Knightmare]

I'm not saying what he is worth. Maybe he is as good as a second round pick. I'm saying what you'll get is similar to Pittonet. VFL dominant rucks, OOC looking for more opportunity and ultimately unproven at AFL level don't fetch second rounders. Maybe you'll get less because of your ongoing salary cap issues

If a team can get Lynch for less than a second round pick, they've played moneyball and found an undervalued, underutilised piece.

Pies were better off letting Grundy or De Goey going and keep Treloar. Lynch is decent and I hope he is out starting ruck next year…. Moore is in the top few players in the AFL and needs to be built around, while Grundy could be replaced by Lynch. Apart from bringing in too many players from other teams, I thought the Pies missed a great opportunity to trade Grundy and then not have a fire sale last year.

My view was if one had to go last offseason, it's De Goey.

De Goey is someone I'd be open to trading if the price is right because his durability hasn't been great over the years. He still only has the two years of more than 18 games which isn't enough from a 25 year old who has played plenty of finals footy.

Grundy is a clear-cut top-3 ruckman in the competition, and what makes him even more valuable is when you have that level of quality with his durability. He's the franchise player. Moore has looked like it this year pre-injury and when in defence felt like that most influential, but his durability has been poor with just the one season with more than 18 games played, and a career average of less than 15 games per season. Given that, I'd even put Moore on the trade table if I had to as his availability can't be trusted beyond doubt.

Disagree again, Horne's ability above his head and his leap for someone who's what mid 180s is superb, feels like a 190cm player because of his leap and overall strong hands and ability above his head that can be see similar to Fyfe, Fyfe had a good lot of explosive speed before he broke his leg never had the skill Horne has in terms of ball use tho. Horne has that pure strength that Fyfe, Dusty, Tracca always had even as juniors and smaller players and i can see Horne getting to a Dusty + size, think he'll suit better at Dusty's size rather than Petracca or Fyfes because of pure speed and explosiveness. Fyfe nowadays isnt what he was so he wont get that big unless he breaks a leg and Petracca is someone who is explosive but isn't lightning where i feel he can be a quicker Dusty type. Like i can see all types of comparisons with those 3 and overall his ceiling is a best player in the comp. Forward of centre with him playing as a forward at Senior level instead of straight away as a mid the whole time is good, plays well down there on a flank etc, dangerous around goals and at ground level but as i said leap and ability above his head as a deep target is danger. Had 20 something with 3 snags on the weekend and dominated. Love his game.

Horne does have the leap, and he can take a high flying mark here/there, and while his frequency of contested marks by position is very good as there aren't many his height who can take them, he's a 0.5 per game contested mark player. Compare that to Fyfe at 1.45 per game at AFL level and there is no comparison. That's a big difference, and it's unreasonable to think Horne reaches anywhere near those heights in that category firstly.

Horne has reasonable to good skills by foot, but obviously better by foot than Fyfe who has always been a liability by foot.

Fyfe interestingly as a junior wasn't strong. He was at that time very skinny. Strong mark and a marking threat i50, but he by no means had a strong body then and was more your skinny strong build.

There is no way Horne will reach Petracca's size, he's not going to be 96kg like Petracca. Martin at 93kg is still heavy. I don't see that either. He might get to 91kg, but I don't see Horne being able to play any heavier than that as an absolute maximum playing weight if his body proves able to carry it without compromising too much on speed, and even then I think it's more likely 88/89kg just to ensure he doesn't lose the speed and repeat speed.

At AFL level if Horne is forced onto a wing or a forward flank, he'll apply pressure and be good in that respect, but he's going to have a hard time finding the footy to a meaningful degree. He's an inside mid only at this stage in his development.

Yes, are you trying to say this was a good deal?

It's without doubt the worst piece of list management in the last two decades.

No offence, but I hope Rawlings and Luff aren't taking list management classes from Ned Guy.

Max Lynch is a 4th year player who was taken in the 3rd round of the rookie draft who has played 3 AFL games.....

Witts had played 40 games for Collingwood prior to being traded.

We have Tristian Xerri you know?

My response was that Collingwood don't have their first round pick to trade.

I'm not going to make any apologies for the list moves made by Ned Guy. Those who follow my work know the grade I awarded Collingwood for last years trade period.

Witts is much better than Lynch, and was worth a first round pick and his capabilities then were obvious to those who watched as another example of an undervalued ruckman. It was just a case of two ruckmen, only one could play at a time, one needed to go as there wasn't room for both, with both deficient forward of centre.

Hopefully Xerri comes good. I had hopes last year that he could be a forward but didn't come through. Through the ruck I haven't found him all that competitive in the VFL in the game I saw earlier this year, so hopefully he can develop that ruck craft to an adequate level, but I'm not yet prepared to make that assumption.

 

[LittleG]

If a team can get Lynch for less than a second round pick, they've played moneyball and found an undervalued, underutilised piece.



My view was if one had to go last offseason, it's De Goey.

De Goey is someone I'd be open to trading if the price is right because his durability hasn't been great over the years. He still only has the two years of more than 18 games which isn't enough from a 25 year old who has played plenty of finals footy.

Grundy is a clear-cut top-3 ruckman in the competition, and what makes him even more valuable is when you have that level of quality with his durability. He's the franchise player. Moore has looked like it this year pre-injury and when in defence felt like that most influential, but his durability has been poor with just the one season with more than 18 games played, and a career average of less than 15 games per season. Given that, I'd even put Moore on the trade table if I had to as his availability can't be trusted beyond doubt.



Horne does have the leap, and he can take a high flying mark here/there, and while his frequency of contested marks by position is very good as there aren't many his height who can take them, he's a 0.5 per game contested mark player. Compare that to Fyfe at 1.45 per game at AFL level and there is no comparison. That's a big difference, and it's unreasonable to think Horne reaches anywhere near those heights in that category firstly.

Horne has reasonable to good skills by foot, but obviously better by foot than Fyfe who has always been a liability by foot.

Fyfe interestingly as a junior wasn't strong. He was at that time very skinny. Strong mark and a marking threat i50, but he by no means had a strong body then and was more your skinny strong build.

There is no way Horne will reach Petracca's size, he's not going to be 96kg like Petracca. Martin at 93kg is still heavy. I don't see that either. He might get to 91kg, but I don't see Horne being able to play any heavier than that as an absolute maximum playing weight if his body proves able to carry it without compromising too much on speed, and even then I think it's more likely 88/89kg just to ensure he doesn't lose the speed and repeat speed.

At AFL level if Horne is forced onto a wing or a forward flank, he'll apply pressure and be good in that respect, but he's going to have a hard time finding the footy to a meaningful degree. He's an inside mid only at this stage in his development.



My response was that Collingwood don't have their first round pick to trade.

I'm not going to make any apologies for the list moves made by Ned Guy. Those who follow my work know the grade I awarded Collingwood for last years trade period.

Witts is much better than Lynch, and was worth a first round pick and his capabilities then were obvious to those who watched as another example of an undervalued ruckman. It was just a case of two ruckmen, only one could play at a time, one needed to go as there wasn't room for both, with both deficient forward of centre.

Hopefully Xerri comes good. I had hopes last year that he could be a forward but didn't come through. Through the ruck I haven't found him all that competitive in the VFL in the game I saw earlier this year, so hopefully he can develop that ruck craft to an adequate level, but I'm not yet prepared to make that assumption.

As it turned out, Treloar hasn’t done much yet this year due to injury, so you aren’t missing much there anyway. Maybe he will explode in finals, we shall see.

Happily give you two first round picks for Moore. Most teams should be prepared to pay that. Moore is one of the few 2 spot players…. He is a KPD, who can run, carry and kick…. That is gold.

Surprisingly there are very few teams in the market for a starting ruck. Ruck identification has got better recently, with Darcy & Draper going well early in their careers. English isn’t a first ruck, so the bulldogs need someone who is ready, ASAP.

 

[pupstar]

I'd say a floor of Willem Drew, with a ceiling not so similar to anyone we've seen as he provides a unique combination of pressure acts and ground ball winning on the move at speed where it's a sort of blend we haven't seen before, or at least that I can think of. I'll elaborate more on this in my weekly wrap where I cover Horne.

The Dusty/Petracca comparisons I don't like for so many reasons. He's not that forward and I don't see him becoming nearly that big bodied. But on the other hand, he's also a genuine two way player and embarrasses them both with the effort he applies working the other way and pressuring like his life depends on it. Overhead and as a contested ball winner I don't see him as Fyfe either, as I don't see him achieving that volume. Others here seem to disagree, but I'm not seeing Horne as likely to become the best midfielder in the competition. If there is a point in time where he becomes top-5, that's enormous and where I place his upside. With the mid case being something more like he should be a top 25 midfielder in the competition for a good stretch of his career, as that 10-35 calibre mid.



If I can have Cerra and Adelaide's 2022 first round pick or Horne. I'm going Cerra and the future pick, as I don't see meaningful separation between Horne and Cerra.

The bonus with Cerra is, he's the more versatile and skilled player, so he gives more options around the ground. He can play outside if you need him to, in defence, though I actually think he is untapped as a forward and should spend some time resting there when he's not playing through the midfield. He had junior games where he would kick 3-4 goals up front, so it's something else I'd be looking as with LDU to incorporate into his game and make into a weapon.

I could be wrong correct me if i am but you seem to mention a lot that Horne wont or at least you cant see him becoming the best mid in the comp. The fact is that he does not have to he just needs to fit into Nobles plans and play his role like every other player. I think to much emphasis is put on him becoming the best mid or 2nd 3rd best mid in the comp. There seems little doubt he will be above average player so just needs to do what he does.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

If a team can get Lynch for less than a second round pick, they've played moneyball and found an undervalued, underutilised piece.



My view was if one had to go last offseason, it's De Goey.

De Goey is someone I'd be open to trading if the price is right because his durability hasn't been great over the years. He still only has the two years of more than 18 games which isn't enough from a 25 year old who has played plenty of finals footy.

Grundy is a clear-cut top-3 ruckman in the competition, and what makes him even more valuable is when you have that level of quality with his durability. He's the franchise player. Moore has looked like it this year pre-injury and when in defence felt like that most influential, but his durability has been poor with just the one season with more than 18 games played, and a career average of less than 15 games per season. Given that, I'd even put Moore on the trade table if I had to as his availability can't be trusted beyond doubt.



Horne does have the leap, and he can take a high flying mark here/there, and while his frequency of contested marks by position is very good as there aren't many his height who can take them, he's a 0.5 per game contested mark player. Compare that to Fyfe at 1.45 per game at AFL level and there is no comparison. That's a big difference, and it's unreasonable to think Horne reaches anywhere near those heights in that category firstly.

Horne has reasonable to good skills by foot, but obviously better by foot than Fyfe who has always been a liability by foot.

Fyfe interestingly as a junior wasn't strong. He was at that time very skinny. Strong mark and a marking threat i50, but he by no means had a strong body then and was more your skinny strong build.

There is no way Horne will reach Petracca's size, he's not going to be 96kg like Petracca. Martin at 93kg is still heavy. I don't see that either. He might get to 91kg, but I don't see Horne being able to play any heavier than that as an absolute maximum playing weight if his body proves able to carry it without compromising too much on speed, and even then I think it's more likely 88/89kg just to ensure he doesn't lose the speed and repeat speed.

At AFL level if Horne is forced onto a wing or a forward flank, he'll apply pressure and be good in that respect, but he's going to have a hard time finding the footy to a meaningful degree. He's an inside mid only at this stage in his development.



My response was that Collingwood don't have their first round pick to trade.

I'm not going to make any apologies for the list moves made by Ned Guy. Those who follow my work know the grade I awarded Collingwood for last years trade period.

Witts is much better than Lynch, and was worth a first round pick and his capabilities then were obvious to those who watched as another example of an undervalued ruckman. It was just a case of two ruckmen, only one could play at a time, one needed to go as there wasn't room for both, with both deficient forward of centre.

Hopefully Xerri comes good. I had hopes last year that he could be a forward but didn't come through. Through the ruck I haven't found him all that competitive in the VFL in the game I saw earlier this year, so hopefully he can develop that ruck craft to an adequate level, but I'm not yet prepared to make that assumption.

Horne def has development but his upside is strong, Fyfe was strong like he didn't look it but he showed natural strength, wasn't outlandishly strong but like he just had it, at a skinny 12 year old body. He won't get to Petraccas size he can get to Martins imo but would sit slightly below that with more speed similar overall strength and a better ability in the air then both.

 

[briztoon]

I could be wrong correct me if i am but you seem to mention a lot that Horne wont or at least you cant see him becoming the best mid in the comp. The fact is that he does not have to he just needs to fit into Nobles plans and play his role like every other player. I think to much emphasis is put on him becoming the best mid or 2nd 3rd best mid in the comp. There seems little doubt he will be above average player so just needs to do what he does.

, , , , , , , , I believe you missed these.

 

[pupstar]

, , , , , , , , I believe you missed these.

Fair call i will get them next time.

 

[Knightmare]

As it turned out, Treloar hasn’t done much yet this year due to injury, so you aren’t missing much there anyway. Maybe he will explode in finals, we shall see.

Happily give you two first round picks for Moore. Most teams should be prepared to pay that. Moore is one of the few 2 spot players…. He is a KPD, who can run, carry and kick…. That is gold.

Surprisingly there are very few teams in the market for a starting ruck. Ruck identification has got better recently, with Darcy & Draper going well early in their careers. English isn’t a first ruck, so the bulldogs need someone who is ready, ASAP.

In this draft I wouldn't be prioritising picks and don't see meaningful value in picks, but Moore is one of those for the right deal, if there was easier player movement, he's one I'd consider moving.

If Gold Coast had Jack Lukosius on offer, I'd be jumping at that if Darcy and Jack respectively okayed the move given they're both contracted.

Treloar for what was given up remains hard to swallow, but his own durability issues are the only thing that may salvage the trade for Collingwood.

English is one for years I've been saying isn't a lead ruck. Hopefully that has become a consensus view. He's just so good when he doesn't have to ruck, and having to compete through the ruck takes away from his strengths, exposing him to contests he's not suited to competing in.

I could be wrong correct me if i am but you seem to mention a lot that Horne wont or at least you cant see him becoming the best mid in the comp. The fact is that he does not have to he just needs to fit into Nobles plans and play his role like every other player. I think to much emphasis is put on him becoming the best mid or 2nd 3rd best mid in the comp. There seems little doubt he will be above average player so just needs to do what he does.

I don't disagree, and my view with Horne is he'll be exceptional. On North Melbourne Horne can contend to be that top midfielder at his peak and should be a top-3 on list mid at least.

It seems I have to continue bringing the Horne apologists who believe he will become the competition's best midfielder, or the next Ablett/Danger/Dusty/Petracca back to reality.

The only marginal difference in position is I feel like there are opportunities to move pick 1 that would yield a better return.

I'm sure North Melbourne keep the pick and go take Horne with a view towards using Horne as a marketing tool, but as a value guy, just as I would have traded Carlton's pick 1 in 2018 for picks 2+6 = Jack Lukosius and Bailey Smith as my planned combination, and I'd be looking at pick 1 similarly this year if a Cerra+Adelaide 2022 first rounder or pick 2 + Adelaide 2022 first rounder could be achieved as a return if I could.

 

[Chris25]

It seems I have to continue bringing the Horne apologists who believe he will become the competition's best midfielder, or the next Ablett/Danger/Dusty/Petracca back to reality.

I think one of us left reality a few pages back.

I do appreciate the general negative connotation around the term apologist. Guess it's no different to being a contrarian really.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

It seems I have to continue bringing the Horne apologists who believe he will become the competition's best midfielder, or the next Ablett/Danger/Dusty/Petracca back to reality.

I don't think anyone has said Horne will be the competition's best midfielder. There is a difference between saying Horne is the best player someone has seen at junior level and saying they will be the best player to ever grace the game.

People are comparing 18-year-old Horne with 18-year-old Ablett or 18-year-old Danger or 18-year-old Dusty (just a few examples). No one is saying Horne is better than a three-time Norm Smith Medalist before playing a game.

Is he better than 18-year-old them? Yeah I would say 100%. Is he better than them after winning Brownlows? Of course not. Could he end up being just a really good player without being outstanding? Of course. Could he end up being one of the best in the comp? Sure, but no-one is saying that. Everyone is just saying he is one of/the best Under 18s prospect they have seen (of those who have seen it).

I would have Rowell ahead of Horne myself in the past 10 or so year I've been watching, but not too many. At worst he's on par with Walsh, though his SANFL League experience and what's he's done against men has him ahead for mine.

How would you rate Horne when comparing to other top prospects in years gone by?

The weirdest thing about this whole argument is, everyone has him in their top two with Daicos and some argue Daicos is better which there is an argument for that sure. Yet everyone seems to be either Team Horne or Team Daicos. I don't understand why people can't be like "bloody hell we've got two ripping players here to enjoy".

 

[GUMBLETRON]

I don't understand why people can't be like "bloody hell we've got two ripping players here to enjoy".

It's football. You have two fanbases going through miserable years who want something, anything, to hang their hat on. If you can't derive self-worth from your footy team, why not try your draft pick.

 

[PMBangers]

The weirdest thing about this whole argument is, everyone has him in their top two with Daicos and some argue Daicos is better which there is an argument for that sure. Yet everyone seems to be either Team Horne or Team Daicos. I don't understand why people can't be like "bloody hell we've got two ripping players here to enjoy".

I'm actually team Darcy thanks for asking

 

[LittleG]

I'm actually team Darcy thanks for asking

Same.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

I'm actually team Darcy thanks for asking

Wilmot is quite the outside choice for you, very good.

 

[PMBangers]

Wilmot is quite the outside choice for you, very good.

Good from you

 

[Rusty Beam]

I don't think anyone has said Horne will be the competition's best midfielder. There is a difference between saying Horne is the best player someone has seen at junior level and saying they will be the best player to ever grace the game.

People are comparing 18-year-old Horne with 18-year-old Ablett or 18-year-old Danger or 18-year-old Dusty (just a few examples). No one is saying Horne is better than a three-time Norm Smith Medalist before playing a game.

Is he better than 18-year-old them? Yeah I would say 100%. Is he better than them after winning Brownlows? Of course not. Could he end up being just a really good player without being outstanding? Of course. Could he end up being one of the best in the comp? Sure, but no-one is saying that. Everyone is just saying he is one of/the best Under 18s prospect they have seen (of those who have seen it).

I would have Rowell ahead of Horne myself in the past 10 or so year I've been watching, but not too many. At worst he's on par with Walsh, though his SANFL League experience and what's he's done against men has him ahead for mine.

How would you rate Horne when comparing to other top prospects in years gone by?

The weirdest thing about this whole argument is, everyone has him in their top two with Daicos and some argue Daicos is better which there is an argument for that sure. Yet everyone seems to be either Team Horne or Team Daicos. I don't understand why people can't be like "bloody hell we've got two ripping players here to enjoy".

100% agree with the majority of what you’ve said and the general sentiment.

Although I think you’ll find that there has actually been quite a bit of categorical hyperbole. But that happens every draft period, with most of the top talent.

Probably the main point that I disagree with is the fact that SANFL/WAFL/VFL etc experience adds much in evaluating talent.

That’s not specific to Horne per se. Just that recent history has shown it’s not a very reliable basis to argue extra draftee development or to devalue others by comparison. I know people think otherwise (including the experts), but I don’t think it really adds much to draftee ranking at all.

 

[Knightmare]

I don't think anyone has said Horne will be the competition's best midfielder. There is a difference between saying Horne is the best player someone has seen at junior level and saying they will be the best player to ever grace the game.

People are comparing 18-year-old Horne with 18-year-old Ablett or 18-year-old Danger or 18-year-old Dusty (just a few examples). No one is saying Horne is better than a three-time Norm Smith Medalist before playing a game.

Is he better than 18-year-old them? Yeah I would say 100%. Is he better than them after winning Brownlows? Of course not. Could he end up being just a really good player without being outstanding? Of course. Could he end up being one of the best in the comp? Sure, but no-one is saying that. Everyone is just saying he is one of/the best Under 18s prospect they have seen (of those who have seen it).

I would have Rowell ahead of Horne myself in the past 10 or so year I've been watching, but not too many. At worst he's on par with Walsh, though his SANFL League experience and what's he's done against men has him ahead for mine.

How would you rate Horne when comparing to other top prospects in years gone by?

The weirdest thing about this whole argument is, everyone has him in their top two with Daicos and some argue Daicos is better which there is an argument for that sure. Yet everyone seems to be either Team Horne or Team Daicos. I don't understand why people can't be like "bloody hell we've got two ripping players here to enjoy".

The first three paragraphs and the same with your last paragraph are relative non points and not comments you'll find anyone disagreeing with.

Moving onto the substance to your position as to how you regard Horne and where he stacks up relatively. If you rate Horne behind only Rowell, and you're not nearly alone, that's completely fine. Everyone should be rating talent independently and form their own opinions.

Where my most dramatic difference of opinion seems to other draft watchers on here is I don't regard the top end this year nearly as highly as others are, and I'm saying that as a broad statement, whether it's comparing them to players from drafts past at the same ages and stages or whether it's projecting ahead the level they reach. When there is anyone talking about Josh Gibcus as an early draft pick, we're not talking about a strong draft.

I don't personally rate Horne at this age and stage as highly as I rated Walsh in 2018. Walsh, and people seem to forget, I was consistent in suggesting would be comparable to Josh Kelly, as 2018's equivalent and someone you can bank on getting to that level. If Horne were in that 2018 pool, I'd be weighing up whether I'd have him at #5 just ahead of Max King, or at #6 just behind Max, and if confident in Max's body, I'd have Max ahead of him.

The point many may find interesting is there isn't a single year since starting watching junior talent in 2009 that comes to mind where I look at Horne as more appealing at this age and stage than the player I had top of my draft board in that given year, based on how I projected the players at the time of the draft. And perhaps that just comes back to experience and a much more acute awareness as to the real chances of top players becoming anything close to what they project to become, let alone the best in the pool, or one of the best in the competition, and not giving players the benefit of the doubt as much to develop something they don't have a high degree of competence in as I did particularly in my very earlier days looking at junior talent. It's important to treat those areas they need to improve in more-so as bonuses if they can get the hang of that, as if they're not doing something in the junior ranks, they're for the most part going to have a hard time starting to do what they couldn't in the juniors, up at AFL level.