Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Pie 4 Life]

If Horne played in the nab league, do you think he’d average 30 possessions a game?

No way... probably 35-40...

 

[Mutineer]

No way... probably 35-40...

Plus

 

[Knightmare]

You do realise Horne is 78kgs don’t you? If you don’t rate him, all good no issue with that. But the way you talk about him you just dismiss the disadvantages he has playing against full grown men.

If Horne played in the nab league, do you think he’d average 30 possessions a game?

Horne's weight I'd consider likely above what he's listed at. He's strong for his age. Legs, core, hips, arms. He's not skinny and has clearly spent time in the gym.

I have Horne at #2 on my draft board and there is little danger at this stage of him being displaced unless Darcy or Callaghan close out the year to an incredible level.

The way a lot of people on bigfooty in particular are talking about Horne, the expectations from my perspective at least are unrealistic and not in keeping with how he's performing, nor how his game projects at the next level. He's not Ablett, nor is he Danger.

The more I analyse drafts past, League play doesn't support as much as the perception around League the development of young footballers. Looking at the SANFL. Whether it's Dylan Stephens, James Aish, Matthew Scharenberg, Bryce Gibbs back in the day. These guys had advanced games at young ages, but they've failed to develop to expectation in the AFL system despite spending significant time developing at League level. Horne is that next guy, and I'm not necessarily convinced the lack of touches and involvement you get that at that level v an U19 level is necessarily beneficial for a young players development. We've even seen it with those minidraft guys. Jaeger O'Meara, Jack Martin, Brad Crouch and Jesse Hogan. What are the themes? Injuries. Development not to expectation. None of them have become superstars of the game as expected at that that time. And I'm not sure even being in an AFL system that year early helped them.

Curiously the point I would be disagreeing with other observers on despite being relatively down on junior prospects playing in the state leagues is that mature agers are too often overlooked and not given the respect they should as there are state leaguers running around who are a lot better than a good numbers of players on AFL lists, including players at their positions of the same ages.

My estimation is Horne in the NAB League would averaged 28d along with a goal per game. He'd find less than Daicos (and that should be obvious for those who saw the difference between the two finding the footy in the AFL Academy v Geelong game) because he doesn't have the same outside accumulation capabilities where you can't play through him in the same way in general play. And he's not really your inside bully either (not that Daicos is either as neither are that way stylistically) as someone who likes winning the loose balls off the bounce when there is the space to run onto it more than he does the ball in heavy traffic - which is a great way to win it because it makes him highly effectual inside but it does to some degree cap his volume of ball as he is reliant on winning it that way inside.

And if he's doing 28d, 1g, applying himself defensively to a best in draft standard. That's still terrific football and a clear second only behind Daicos on performance who has been this year's dominant performer in every game he has played.

 

[the big lebowski]

Horne's weight I'd consider likely above what he's listed at. He's strong for his age. Legs, core, hips, arms. He's not skinny and has clearly spent time in the gym.

I have Horne at #2 on my draft board and there is little danger at this stage of him being displaced unless Darcy or Callaghan close out the year to an incredible level.

The way a lot of people on bigfooty in particular are talking about Horne, the expectations from my perspective at least are unrealistic and not in keeping with how he's performing, nor how his game projects at the next level. He's not Ablett, nor is he Danger.

The more I analyse drafts past, League play doesn't support as much as the perception around League the development of young footballers. Looking at the SANFL. Whether it's Dylan Stephens, James Aish, Matthew Scharenberg, Bryce Gibbs back in the day. These guys had advanced games at young ages, but they've failed to develop to expectation in the AFL system despite spending significant time developing at League level. Horne is that next guy, and I'm not necessarily convinced the lack of touches and involvement you get that at that level v an U19 level is necessarily beneficial for a young players development. We've even seen it with those minidraft guys. Jaeger O'Meara, Jack Martin, Brad Crouch and Jesse Hogan. What are the themes? Injuries. Development not to expectation. None of them have become superstars of the game as expected at that that time. And I'm not sure even being in an AFL system that year early helped them.

Curiously the point I would be disagreeing with other observers on despite being relatively down on junior prospects playing in the state leagues is that mature agers are too often overlooked and not given the respect they should as there are state leaguers running around who are a lot better than a good numbers of players on AFL lists, including players at their positions of the same ages.

My estimation is Horne in the NAB League would averaged 28d along with a goal per game. He'd find less than Daicos (and that should be obvious for those who saw the difference between the two finding the footy in the AFL Academy v Geelong game) because he doesn't have the same outside accumulation capabilities where you can't play through him in the same way in general play. And he's not really your inside bully either (not that Daicos is either as neither are that way stylistically) as someone who likes winning the loose balls off the bounce when there is the space to run onto it more than he does the ball in heavy traffic - which is a great way to win it because it makes him highly effectual inside but it does to some degree cap his volume of ball as he is reliant on winning it that way inside.

And if he's doing 28d, 1g, applying himself defensively to a best in draft standard. That's still terrific football and a clear second only behind Daicos on performance who has been this year's dominant performer in every game he has played.

Fair enough. But I think personally think you’re missing an integral thing. Horne will primarily be a contested player. Possessions, marking, clearances etc. He is miles off being able to do that physically against grown men. Yes he does look eye catching in his attack on the ball, imagine when he’s 10 kgs heavier.

As for 28 possessions and a goal at u18’s, well he was basically doing that 2 years ago.

 

[Knightmare]

Fair enough. But I think personally think you’re missing an integral thing. Horne will primarily be a contested player. Possessions, marking, clearances etc. He is miles off being able to do that physically against grown men. Yes he does look eye catching in his attack on the ball, imagine when he’s 10 kgs heavier.

As for 28 possessions and a goal at u18’s, well he was basically doing that 2 years ago.

Horne averaged 15.8d in the SA u18s in 2019.

Horne is a contested style of player. I completely agree with that. And no doubt he'll keep getting incrementally stronger. And all that translates well to AFL play and means his floor is as low as any in this year's pool.

He'll be a contested mid, he'll burst out of stoppages - winning those balls at stoppages when it's loose - swoop onto it - burst out of there, play a high level two way game which for me is that biggest appeal and what he does to the highest level, manage the occasional high leaping mark and some goals here/there. That's his game. He's one of those guys where if it's a big game and you need a big play, I can trust Horne will do that for me.

Those who think he can go outside, play forward and be a difference maker there, or become a best in competition level midfielder are the ones who will be disappointed. He's someone I'd draft actually hoping can be my second best midfielder. Though I'd say the same of Daicos in so much as I'd say I'd want to pair Daicos with an elite first possession winner (someone along the lines of a Tom Green style of distributor), to maximise their games respectively.

 

[Chris25]

It’s good to have a laugh with everything going on at the moment.

 

[Psicosis]

Horne averaged 15.8d in the SA u18s in 2019.

Horne is a contested style of player. I completely agree with that. And no doubt he'll keep getting incrementally stronger. And all that translates well to AFL play and means his floor is as low as any in this year's pool.

He'll be a contested mid, he'll burst out of stoppages - winning those balls at stoppages when it's loose - swoop onto it - burst out of there, play a high level two way game which for me is that biggest appeal and what he does to the highest level, manage the occasional high leaping mark and some goals here/there. That's his game. He's one of those guys where if it's a big game and you need a big play, I can trust Horne will do that for me.

Those who think he can go outside, play forward and be a difference maker there, or become a best in competition level midfielder are the ones who will be disappointed. He's someone I'd draft actually hoping can be my second best midfielder. Though I'd say the same of Daicos in so much as I'd say I'd want to pair Daicos with an elite first possession winner (someone along the lines of a Tom Green style of distributor), to maximise their games respectively.

Curious as to whether you expected Toby Greene to become a forward in his u18 year?

 

[Mutineer]

It’s good to have a laugh with everything going on at the moment.

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[Knightmare]

Curious as to whether you expected Toby Greene to become a forward in his u18 year?

Can't say I did. Looked like a pure midfielder without any obvious versatility at that age and stage.

 

[Bojan KantKick]

North Melbourne presumably take the pick and of the live picks go for Horne.

That said, there is a reason North Melbourne shouldn't as you're outlining and a lot of others have. North Melbourne's midfield is solid and doesn't need a lot more.

Whether it's going to get Cerra and a pick. Perhaps that pick can be made into a combination of picks eg. would Adelaide offer their 2021 and 2022 first round picks for pick 1 and a mid draft pick let's say? Would Collingwood give up a De Goey/Maynard package for pick 1 and some other pick to avoid a pick one bid on Daicos and start a rebuild? Maybe Collingwood think they can bid on Darcy at 1, if that's matched, take Horne at 2, then a bid would come at 3 on Daicos to reduce that cost. They're three different styles of trades and examples of the types of opportunities there could be.

There are other clubs that need midfielders more, so there should be someone willing to offer something big. My view is North Melbourne should not just listen, but make offers if there is something that will do more to improve the team.

Wouldn't have thought a De Goey/Maynard package would be of interest to North. We need bookends to help McKay and Larkey. I think Adelaide offering pick 2 and their future first could be of interest to North but I'd rather us take Horne.

You have mentioned previously that Horne is very good defensively with his pressure and tackling. That seems perfect for North with Jed Anderson and Cunners probably only having a few years left and Thomas/LDU doing their best work offensively.

Horne might not be great on a half forward flank or a pocket yet but he has plenty of time to develop that.

 

[Sphynx]

North Melbourne presumably take the pick and of the live picks go for Horne.

That said, there is a reason North Melbourne shouldn't as you're outlining and a lot of others have. North Melbourne's midfield is solid and doesn't need a lot more.

Whether it's going to get Cerra and a pick. Perhaps that pick can be made into a combination of picks eg. would Adelaide offer their 2021 and 2022 first round picks for pick 1 and a mid draft pick let's say? Would Collingwood give up a De Goey/Maynard package for pick 1 and some other pick to avoid a pick one bid on Daicos and start a rebuild? Maybe Collingwood think they can bid on Darcy at 1, if that's matched, take Horne at 2, then a bid would come at 3 on Daicos to reduce that cost. They're three different styles of trades and examples of the types of opportunities there could be.

There are other clubs that need midfielders more, so there should be someone willing to offer something big. My view is North Melbourne should not just listen, but make offers if there is something that will do more to improve the team.

De Goey/Maynard for pick #1?

Yeah, no...

Why would North possibly do that when they can get a better version, 6 years younger, without the offield issues, on 10% of the wage and a kid with frankly a higher ceiling?

 

[Chaisa]

FMD with the way some SAussies talk about Horne if he's not the best player of all-time he'll be a disappointment.

 

[Knightmare]

Wouldn't have thought a De Goey/Maynard package would be of interest to North. We need bookends to help McKay and Larkey. I think Adelaide offering pick 2 and their future first could be of interest to North but I'd rather us take Horne.

You have mentioned previously that Horne is very good defensively with his pressure and tackling. That seems perfect for North with Jed Anderson and Cunners probably only having a few years left and Thomas/LDU doing their best work offensively.

Horne might not be great on a half forward flank or a pocket yet but he has plenty of time to develop that.

North Melbourne's front and back halves are weak and need improvement. Horne is a midfielder who addresses neither spot. He's one to draft if you're comfortable adding another midfielder. If you want someone two way who applies himself defensively like no one else in the pool, he's the guy. Whether it's pressuring, giving those multiple efforts, tackling, going for smothers. He really puts in that way, so he's an asset to any midfield, as you'd expect from a clear-cut top-2 pick.

North Melbourne will take time to become a good team unless some high calibre established players are added. If North Melbourne keep going to the draft, there will be several years of opportunities to add high end key position players who can be added. Next year has numerous high end key position players, and I'm sure won't nearly be the last possible opportunity to find others.

De Goey/Maynard for pick #1?

Yeah, no...

Why would North possibly do that when they can get a better version, 6 years younger, without the offield issues, on 10% of the wage and a kid with frankly a higher ceiling?

There was a time Fremantle took Croad and McPharlin for pick 1 (Luke Hodge), 20 and 36 (Sam Mitchell).

Horne isn't nearly Hodge. Croad and McPharlin being KPPs have relatively greater value. It's a rough template from the past of how pick one can be attained (for two good footballers) in and of a type of need.

If we look through the history of pick 1s. We could look at would you take De Goey + Maynard. Would you rather both of them. Or a random pick one of from the past 15 years: Jamarra/Rowell/Walsh/Rayner/McGrath/Weitering/McCartin/Boyd/Whitfield/Patton/Swallow/Scully/Watts/Kreuzer/Gibbs/Murphy? There aren't a lot of instances I'd take that guy who went pick one. And that's assuming Horne is pick 1. Daicos may still go #1 and at this point in time is my pick one. And if you compare De Goey+Maynard v against the list of pick 2s, the list looks worse needless to say.

Pick one is the most overvalued commodity in football when you go through the numbers and the history of performance of the pick. The next most overvalued? Pick 2.

FMD with the way some SAussies talk about Horne if he's not the best player of all-time he'll be a disappointment.

Unbelievably we have Victorian's joining the Horne party, though despite the views of a number on bigfooty there is still remains a good number of Daicos advocates.

Horne has low floor, so I don't see him failing. He ticks the key boxes to be a good piece. I'm just not convinced beyond doubt he's that franchise midfielder or that likely top-5 in the competition midfielder. He could be the Trent Cotchin/Stephen Coniglio/Tim Taranto equivalent of this draft and for his team though. None of those guys are best in their draft calibre or guys who have ever been in that best in the competition conversation, with Dangerfield/Greene/Simpkin some in their respective drafts who are I'd argue better. The odds are there probably will be better than Horne, as he'll be one of 60+ drafted, but he should be a safe bet to be among that best handful as with those former number twos which is what you hope for when taking a pick one or two. And the rest of the pool isn't so overwhelmingly great that, that is in question at this point in time.

 

[Bojan KantKick]

North Melbourne's front and back halves are weak and need improvement. Horne is a midfielder who addresses neither spot. He's one to draft if you're comfortable adding another midfielder. If you want someone two way who applies himself defensively like no one else in the pool, he's the guy. Whether it's pressuring, giving those multiple efforts, tackling, going for smothers. He really puts in that way, so he's an asset to any midfield, as you'd expect from a clear-cut top-2 pick.

North Melbourne will take time to become a good team unless some high calibre established players are added. If North Melbourne keep going to the draft, there will be several years of opportunities to add high end key position players who can be added. Next year has numerous high end key position players, and I'm sure won't nearly be the last possible opportunity to find others.



There was a time Fremantle took Croad and McPharlin for pick 1 (Luke Hodge), 20 and 36 (Sam Mitchell).

Horne isn't nearly Hodge. Croad and McPharlin being KPPs have relatively greater value. It's a rough template from the past of how pick one can be attained (for two good footballers) in and of a type of need.

If we look through the history of pick 1s. We could look at would you take De Goey + Maynard. Would you rather both of them. Or a random pick one of from the past 15 years: Jamarra/Rowell/Walsh/Rayner/McGrath/Weitering/McCartin/Boyd/Whitfield/Patton/Swallow/Scully/Watts/Kreuzer/Gibbs/Murphy? There aren't a lot of instances I'd take that guy who went pick one. And that's assuming Horne is pick 1. Daicos may still go #1 and at this point in time is my pick one. And if you compare De Goey+Maynard v against the list of pick 2s, the list looks worse needless to say.

Pick one is the most overvalued commodity in football when you go through the numbers and the history of performance of the pick. The next most overvalued? Pick 2.



Unbelievably we have Victorian's joining the Horne party, though despite the views of a number on bigfooty there is still remains a good number of Daicos advocates.

Horne has low floor, so I don't see him failing. He ticks the key boxes to be a good piece. I'm just not convinced beyond doubt he's that franchise midfielder or that likely top-5 in the competition midfielder. He could be the Trent Cotchin/Stephen Coniglio/Tim Taranto equivalent of this draft and for his team though. None of those guys are best in their draft calibre or guys who have ever been in that best in the competition conversation, with Dangerfield/Greene/Simpkin some in their respective drafts who are I'd argue better. The odds are there probably will be better than Horne, as he'll be one of 60+ drafted, but he should be a safe bet to be among that best handful as with those former number twos which is what you hope for when taking a pick one or two. And the rest of the pool isn't so overwhelmingly great that, that is in question at this point in time.

Sure, North need to acquire 2-3 defenders and 2-3 forwards via the draft or trade. Whilst the midfield is pretty much set, it is very young and the club does have time on its side. North are still probably 2-3 seasons away from making the 8 so I'd be comfortable trading the pick for the right player or pick 2 this year and Adelaides first pick next year and using 2 picks on key position players at the top end of next years draft.

Interesting that you mentioned in the Croad/MacPharlin trade in another reply. That is the kind of trade I think North would jump at as it involves genuine gun key defenders and we'd pretty much be set aside from a small defender at that end of the ground. I don't think anyone has those kind of players available though. If Collingwood enquired about the pick I'd expect North to ask for Darcy Moore which is overs but you don't trade that pick for back flankers and half forwards.

 

[Knightmare]

Sure, North need to acquire 2-3 defenders and 2-3 forwards via the draft or trade. Whilst the midfield is pretty much set, it is very young and the club does have time on its side. North are still probably 2-3 seasons away from making the 8 so I'd be comfortable trading the pick for the right player or pick 2 this year and Adelaides first pick next year and using 2 picks on key position players at the top end of next years draft.

Interesting that you mentioned in the Croad/MacPharlin trade in another reply. That is the kind of trade I think North would jump at as it involves genuine gun key defenders and we'd pretty much be set aside from a small defender at that end of the ground. I don't think anyone has those kind of players available though. If Collingwood enquired about the pick I'd expect North to ask for Darcy Moore which is overs but you don't trade that pick for back flankers and half forwards.

The thing to be aware of if North Melbourne remain right near the bottom for a few years is those early picks are every year either talls or mids. So those general forwards and general defenders would need addressing whether it's with other picks or trades at some point and it will likely take time.

If a deal is done, the easiest deal would be something involving Cerra + a pick as a return, or otherwise it's probably some mega package of picks and a young player.

If North Melbourne would only accept two talls. Not that Collingwood would do the trade as they wouldn't put Moore on the trade table, but Darcy Moore and Max Lynch would be a fascinating combo in a trade for pick 1 + a pick as that two talls for pick one kind of trade. It would just leave North Melbourne from a tall perspective needing one more key forward which could easily be had in the next draft.

I can't help but think Collingwood should be that most motivated trade partner due to wanting Daicos as far down as possible, wanting to avoid a pick deficit or having to trade involving future picks again if they can avoid it. I just don't see them doing anything aggressive or anything that would upset the fan base given their moves last offseason.

It's hard to see a club giving away two talls on that Croad/McPharlin level though. Clubs like their good talls and it's a game of quality over quantity, so they're tightly held. Port Adelaide have some young talls, but they're not the kind of pieces you'd want to deal pick 1 for.

 

[Bojan KantKick]

The thing to be aware of if North Melbourne remain right near the bottom for a few years is those early picks are every year either talls or mids. So those general forwards and general defenders would need addressing whether it's with other picks or trades at some point and it will likely take time.

If a deal is done, the easiest deal would be something involving Cerra + a pick as a return, or otherwise it's probably some mega package of picks and a young player.

If North Melbourne would only accept two talls. Not that Collingwood would do the trade as they wouldn't put Moore on the trade table, but Darcy Moore and Max Lynch would be a fascinating combo in a trade for pick 1 + a pick as that two talls for pick one kind of trade. It would just leave North Melbourne from a tall perspective needing one more key forward which could easily be had in the next draft.

I can't help but think Collingwood should be that most motivated trade partner due to wanting Daicos as far down as possible, wanting to avoid a pick deficit or having to trade involving future picks again if they can avoid it. I just don't see them doing anything aggressive or anything that would upset the fan base given their moves last offseason.

It's hard to see a club giving away two talls on that Croad/McPharlin level though. Clubs like their good talls and it's a game of quality over quantity, so they're tightly held. Port Adelaide have some young talls, but they're not the kind of pieces you'd want to deal pick 1 for.

Yeah I think the general forwards/defenders will come from trades. Given that so few are taken at the pointy end of the draft, we can probably trade for them with mid firsts-second round picks in future years.

Given that Cerra supposedly wants to come home to Victoria, I wouldn't be offering pick 1 for him although I don't know what the market is like for him in a trade.

I'll take your word for it on Lynch as I have never seen him play nor do I know what his potential is like but that would be the dream deal. Collingwood should be the motivated trade partner but outside of Moore, I don't think North are keen on their best assets due to age or position. If Collingwood can trade for a top 10 pick this year and hand over next years (not sure if that's allowed) then I think North would consider it as long as it bettered Adelaide's potential offer.

It will be fascinating to see what happens. Sure, most number 1 picks haven't been the best players in their drafts but teams in all sports can get emotionally invested in the top couple of available prospects and sometimes pay massive overs for them. If Adelaide really feel that Horne is the second coming, then North may benefit massively from that.

 

[Ah12]

Could Horne be a Petracca type mid?

 

[Sphynx]

The thing to be aware of if North Melbourne remain right near the bottom for a few years is those early picks are every year either talls or mids. So those general forwards and general defenders would need addressing whether it's with other picks or trades at some point and it will likely take time.

If a deal is done, the easiest deal would be something involving Cerra + a pick as a return, or otherwise it's probably some mega package of picks and a young player.

If North Melbourne would only accept two talls. Not that Collingwood would do the trade as they wouldn't put Moore on the trade table, but Darcy Moore and Max Lynch would be a fascinating combo in a trade for pick 1 + a pick as that two talls for pick one kind of trade. It would just leave North Melbourne from a tall perspective needing one more key forward which could easily be had in the next draft.

I can't help but think Collingwood should be that most motivated trade partner due to wanting Daicos as far down as possible, wanting to avoid a pick deficit or having to trade involving future picks again if they can avoid it. I just don't see them doing anything aggressive or anything that would upset the fan base given their moves last offseason.

It's hard to see a club giving away two talls on that Croad/McPharlin level though. Clubs like their good talls and it's a game of quality over quantity, so they're tightly held. Port Adelaide have some young talls, but they're not the kind of pieces you'd want to deal pick 1 for.

Max Lynch wouldn’t get a game at North.

Charlie Comben has had 19 shots on goal in his first 3 VFL games back from injury since being drafted. He will be the starting CHF next year and we might even see him in the last 2 games this year. The club rates him as highly as LDU, Simpkin etc.

Then there is Jacob Edwards....

We really don’t need Lynch AND another key forward in the draft.

I think the club may target one of the WA talls at pick #20. But even then that is no guarantee as they see Comben as a future star.

This is reminiscent of you saying we should go after Matt Kennedy, Conor Ballendon and Marty Gleeson because they would be our best midfielder, tall defender and half back respectively.

 

[Chris25]

FMD with the way some SAussies talk about Horne if he's not the best player of all-time he'll be a disappointment.

To be fair, it’s not just South Australians. It’s those who have watched him.

I think everyone realises a lot can happen at the next level and players don’t always reach the lofty heights. As KM keeps on saying, the #1 pick is rarely ever the best player in the draft. So it’s lucky that Daicos will probably go first. But I’ve said it before, Horne is in the top two juniors I’ve watched in my time - along with Rowell. And if you can’t get excited over that, then when can you.

 

[LittleG]

The thing to be aware of if North Melbourne remain right near the bottom for a few years is those early picks are every year either talls or mids. So those general forwards and general defenders would need addressing whether it's with other picks or trades at some point and it will likely take time.

If a deal is done, the easiest deal would be something involving Cerra + a pick as a return, or otherwise it's probably some mega package of picks and a young player.

If North Melbourne would only accept two talls. Not that Collingwood would do the trade as they wouldn't put Moore on the trade table, but Darcy Moore and Max Lynch would be a fascinating combo in a trade for pick 1 + a pick as that two talls for pick one kind of trade. It would just leave North Melbourne from a tall perspective needing one more key forward which could easily be had in the next draft.

I can't help but think Collingwood should be that most motivated trade partner due to wanting Daicos as far down as possible, wanting to avoid a pick deficit or having to trade involving future picks again if they can avoid it. I just don't see them doing anything aggressive or anything that would upset the fan base given their moves last offseason.

It's hard to see a club giving away two talls on that Croad/McPharlin level though. Clubs like their good talls and it's a game of quality over quantity, so they're tightly held. Port Adelaide have some young talls, but they're not the kind of pieces you'd want to deal pick 1 for.

How much for Max Lynch by himself? As he isn’t best 22, I was thinking a future second and maybe some pick swaps.

He would be our first choice ruck and English can play a very tall utility/forward.

 

[Knightmare]

Yeah I think the general forwards/defenders will come from trades. Given that so few are taken at the pointy end of the draft, we can probably trade for them with mid firsts-second round picks in future years.

Given that Cerra supposedly wants to come home to Victoria, I wouldn't be offering pick 1 for him although I don't know what the market is like for him in a trade.

I'll take your word for it on Lynch as I have never seen him play nor do I know what his potential is like but that would be the dream deal. Collingwood should be the motivated trade partner but outside of Moore, I don't think North are keen on their best assets due to age or position. If Collingwood can trade for a top 10 pick this year and hand over next years (not sure if that's allowed) then I think North would consider it as long as it bettered Adelaide's potential offer.

It will be fascinating to see what happens. Sure, most number 1 picks haven't been the best players in their drafts but teams in all sports can get emotionally invested in the top couple of available prospects and sometimes pay massive overs for them. If Adelaide really feel that Horne is the second coming, then North may benefit massively from that.

Collingwood traded out of this year's draft with GWS possessing their first round pick.

If North Melbourne can get Adelaide's 2021+2022 first round picks for pick 1 and something inconsequential, that's a potentially winning trade opportunity and playing the probabilities in your favour. And the bonus if you're at 2 is you can always trade even that down for other assets - be it picks and/or players, with no doubt other solid two for one opportunities out there for that pick also. Who knows? Maybe that pick could yield Cerra as Fremantle would have a hard time gaining a better return.

Could Horne be a Petracca type mid?

There are some who believe he could be, but I don't see him developing that kind of big body, nor the same forward of centre capabilities.

I'd suggest he's closer to a midfield version of an Isaac Heeney.

Max Lynch wouldn’t get a game at North.

Charlie Comben has had 19 shots on goal in his first 3 VFL games back from injury since being drafted. He will be the starting CHF next year and we might even see him in the last 2 games this year. The club rates him as highly as LDU, Simpkin etc.

Then there is Jacob Edwards....

We really don’t need Lynch AND another key forward in the draft.

I think the club may target one of the WA talls at pick #20. But even then that is no guarantee as they see Comben as a future star.

This is reminiscent of you saying we should go after Matt Kennedy, Conor Ballendon and Marty Gleeson because they would be our best midfielder, tall defender and half back respectively.

I'm not sure why you're comparing Lynch to guys in Comben and Edwards who are more forwards than rucks. Lynch is a ruckman who behind Grundy, as was the case once upon a time with Witts isn't likely ever to get senior opportunities. I suspect he requests a trade at seasons end as in his two games he showed he's a capable AFL ready ruckman.

Goldstein is on the downside. Interest in a Lynch would depend on whether you see an obvious successor and how much longer you think Goldstein plays good football.

Kennedy I never suggested would be North Melbourne's best midfielder. I've long had respect for Cunnington and Simpkin as high end midfielders, they didn't just emerge this year, and LDU and Phillips were others I also had higher hopes for this year (though Kennedy is balling for Carlton and is a piece and looks like their third best midfielder now). Josh Walker as a key defender I've also liked and was big on recruiting in his final years in Brisbane as a key defender, and same with McDonald in defence last year who was excellent. I did have all three on my draft board last year though and while my views of Ballenden are tapering slightly this year, Kennedy I remain a fan of and Gleeson I still consider good enough to be best-22 in defence for North Melbourne.

How much for Max Lynch by himself? As he isn’t best 22, I was thinking a future second and maybe some pick swaps.

He would be our first choice ruck and English can play a very tall utility/forward.

Max Lynch is likely to explore opportunities externally in the hope that he can become a number one ruckman elsewhere. I'd anticipate he would get Collingwood a second round pick.

He would make sense as a list fit for the Dogs, though the Pies would probably want more than a very late second rounder from the Dogs. If the Dogs add in a surplus player who the Pies like with that pick, that's where I expect his valuation to be around, as he's a ready-made capable young ruckman who would allow English not to have to be that lead ruck.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Collingwood traded out of this year's draft with GWS possessing their first round pick.

If North Melbourne can get Adelaide's 2021+2022 first round picks for pick 1 and something inconsequential, that's a potentially winning trade opportunity and playing the probabilities in your favour. And the bonus if you're at 2 is you can always trade even that down for other assets - be it picks and/or players, with no doubt other solid two for one opportunities out there for that pick also. Who knows? Maybe that pick could yield Cerra as Fremantle would have a hard time gaining a better return.



There are some who believe he could be, but I don't see him developing that kind of big body, nor the same forward of centre capabilities.

I'd suggest he's closer to a midfield version of an Isaac Heeney.



I'm not sure why you're comparing Lynch to guys in Comben and Edwards who are more forwards than rucks. Lynch is a ruckman who behind Grundy, as was the case once upon a time with Witts isn't likely ever to get senior opportunities. I suspect he requests a trade at seasons end as in his two games he showed he's a capable AFL ready ruckman.

Goldstein is on the downside. Interest in a Lynch would depend on whether you see an obvious successor and how much longer you think Goldstein plays good football.

Kennedy I never suggested would be North Melbourne's best midfielder. I've long had respect for Cunnington and Simpkin as high end midfielders, they didn't just emerge this year, and LDU and Phillips were others I also had higher hopes for this year (though Kennedy is balling for Carlton and is a piece and looks like their third best midfielder now). Josh Walker as a key defender I've also liked and was big on recruiting in his final years in Brisbane as a key defender, and same with McDonald in defence last year who was excellent. I did have all three on my draft board last year though and while my views of Ballenden are tapering slightly this year, Kennedy I remain a fan of and Gleeson I still consider good enough to be best-22 in defence for North Melbourne.



Max Lynch is likely to explore opportunities externally in the hope that he can become a number one ruckman elsewhere. I'd anticipate he would get Collingwood a second round pick.

He would make sense as a list fit for the Dogs, though the Pies would probably want more than a very late second rounder from the Dogs. If the Dogs add in a surplus player who the Pies like with that pick, that's where I expect his valuation to be around, as he's a ready-made capable young ruckman who would allow English not to have to be that lead ruck.

On Horne, he's so strong already, like genuinely pushing men off with one hand strong, i can see him getting that big just looks to have the body to be able to build it and look at Dusty, not as big as Petracca but similarly strong.

On NBA2K they have a "ceiling and floor"
Floor is as you say a Heeney type mid probably but with more strength well that maybe slightly worse as he could have injuries etc but Ceiling is full on Dusty, Fyfe territory.

 

[Mutineer]

Comparing Horne or any other player for that matter to other players from previous drafts is irrelevant really, clubs have picks to use which have the same value in this draft as past drafts, whoever goes pick 1, 2, 3 or 4 will be considered by AFL recruiters as the best players for their list needs in THIS draft.

 

[sruss]

North Melbourne presumably take the pick and of the live picks go for Horne.

That said, there is a reason North Melbourne shouldn't as you're outlining and a lot of others have. North Melbourne's midfield is solid and doesn't need a lot more.

Whether it's going to get Cerra and a pick. Perhaps that pick can be made into a combination of picks eg. would Adelaide offer their 2021 and 2022 first round picks for pick 1 and a mid draft pick let's say? Would Collingwood give up a De Goey/Maynard package for pick 1 and some other pick to avoid a pick one bid on Daicos and start a rebuild? Maybe Collingwood think they can bid on Darcy at 1, if that's matched, take Horne at 2, then a bid would come at 3 on Daicos to reduce that cost. They're three different styles of trades and examples of the types of opportunities there could be.

There are other clubs that need midfielders more, so there should be someone willing to offer something big. My view is North Melbourne should not just listen, but make offers if there is something that will do more to improve the team.

If North pass on Horne because they don’t need another midfielder, why would they entertain trading pick 1 for Cerra?

 

[Knightmare]

On Horne, he's so strong already, like genuinely pushing men off with one hand strong, i can see him getting that big just looks to have the body to be able to build it and look at Dusty, not as big as Petracca but similarly strong.

On NBA2K they have a "ceiling and floor"
Floor is as you say a Heeney type mid probably but with more strength well that maybe slightly worse as he could have injuries etc but Ceiling is full on Dusty, Fyfe territory.

I'd say a floor of Willem Drew, with a ceiling not so similar to anyone we've seen as he provides a unique combination of pressure acts and ground ball winning on the move at speed where it's a sort of blend we haven't seen before, or at least that I can think of. I'll elaborate more on this in my weekly wrap where I cover Horne.

The Dusty/Petracca comparisons I don't like for so many reasons. He's not that forward and I don't see him becoming nearly that big bodied. But on the other hand, he's also a genuine two way player and embarrasses them both with the effort he applies working the other way and pressuring like his life depends on it. Overhead and as a contested ball winner I don't see him as Fyfe either, as I don't see him achieving that volume. Others here seem to disagree, but I'm not seeing Horne as likely to become the best midfielder in the competition. If there is a point in time where he becomes top-5, that's enormous and where I place his upside. With the mid case being something more like he should be a top 25 midfielder in the competition for a good stretch of his career, as that 10-35 calibre mid.

If North pass on Horne because they don’t need another midfielder, why would they entertain trading pick 1 for Cerra?

If I can have Cerra and Adelaide's 2022 first round pick or Horne. I'm going Cerra and the future pick, as I don't see meaningful separation between Horne and Cerra.

The bonus with Cerra is, he's the more versatile and skilled player, so he gives more options around the ground. He can play outside if you need him to, in defence, though I actually think he is untapped as a forward and should spend some time resting there when he's not playing through the midfield. He had junior games where he would kick 3-4 goals up front, so it's something else I'd be looking as with LDU to incorporate into his game and make into a weapon.