Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Sphynx]

It's football. You have two fanbases going through miserable years who want something, anything, to hang their hat on. If you can't derive self-worth from your footy team, why not try your draft pick.

Speak for yourself...

Personally this has been one of the more enjoyable North seasons of the last 10 years, despite the ladder position.

Team was a shambles and through quality development and coaching we have made more development strides in a single season since the Pagan era.

Most North supporters are comfortable with Horne vs Daicos. I really don’t think we’d take Daicos over him in the open draft and Collingwood might not take Horne over Daicos, so who really cares.

We might trade the pick yet...

 

[sruss]

I don't disagree, and my view with Horne is he'll be exceptional. On North Melbourne Horne can contend to be that top midfielder at his peak and should be a top-3 on list mid at least.

It seems I have to continue bringing the Horne apologists who believe he will become the competition's best midfielder, or the next Ablett/Danger/Dusty/Petracca back to reality.

The only marginal difference in position is I feel like there are opportunities to move pick 1 that would yield a better return.

I'm sure North Melbourne keep the pick and go take Horne with a view towards using Horne as a marketing tool, but as a value guy, just as I would have traded Carlton's pick 1 in 2018 for picks 2+6 = Jack Lukosius and Bailey Smith as my planned combination, and I'd be looking at pick 1 similarly this year if a Cerra+Adelaide 2022 first rounder or pick 2 + Adelaide 2022 first rounder could be achieved as a return if I could.

Well, I think there’s a bit of revisionist history going on here given you actually stated that Lukosius was your standout number 1 pick and that if you were personally in charge of pick 1 you would not be hesitating to take him. Should we perhaps start referring to you as a Lukosius apologist?

 

[LittleG]

Speak for yourself...

Personally this has been one of the more enjoyable North seasons of the last 10 years, despite the ladder position.

Team was a shambles and through quality development and coaching we have made more development strides in a single season since the Pagan era.

Most North supporters are comfortable with Horne vs Daicos. I really don’t think we’d take Daicos over him in the open draft and Collingwood might not take Horne over Daicos, so who really cares.

We might trade the pick yet...

I think I have only watched 3 north games this year. Not a big sample size BUT I would say, coaching has been really good. You can see what they are doing and the roles the players are playing were mostly well defined. The players were encouraging each other, even when things didn’t go well. I can easily see why you are finding it an enjoyable experience.

IF you guys fire your coaches in the next 3 years, you are nuts. Stay the course.

 

[Knightmare]

Well, I think there’s a bit of revisionist history going on here given you actually stated that Lukosius was your standout number 1 pick and that if you were personally in charge of pick 1 you would not be hesitating to take him. Should we perhaps start referring to you as a Lukosius apologist?
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To be clear, you're absolutely right, I did at the time view Lukosius as the standout pick in 2018. I've been consistent in saying that's the case.

My point is, and this is adding onto the points listed above in what you quoted, it was well known within the industry that Carlton would pick Walsh at 1, and so would Gold Coast. So at the time with that knowledge I would have traded pick 1 for 2 + 6 to capitalise on that opportunity to maximise my return on that pick.

Building on from that idea. Had it not been certain that Lukosius would be available at 2, I wouldn't have at the time moved that pick. As that's how highly I was valuing his talent at that time, as he is the best I've seen come through the junior ranks in terms of how his game projects as a unicorn like we haven't seen.

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Draft wrap with a focus on Jason Horne:

There has never been a footballer past or present who is as special defensively as he is at winning centre bounce ground balls at high speed as pick one contender and consensus first live selection in this year's draft Jason Horne.

Point of discussion: Will I be on my own in considering Joshua Cripps (younger and taller brother of Patrick) and Leek Aleer for my top-50 power rankings?

Article link:

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...rne-stuns-again-sanfl-south-adelaide-panthers

 

[tenderwarrior]

Knightmare I am interested in your thoughts now on Will Phillips. You rated him highly last year pre-draft as a top 3 pick, but I imagine he has slid a bit in hindsight?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare I am interested in your thoughts now on Will Phillips. You rated him highly last year pre-draft as a top 3 pick, but I imagine he has slid a bit in hindsight?

I have a clear-cut top-4 now from last year's draft with the four talls in Logan McDonald, Riley Thilthorpe, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Nik Cox as those top 4 talents. From there things open up and there are a number of different ways I could go.

I expected more from Phillips in year one, though I remain optimistic he comes good and has a big year 2. He's part of that almost extended roughly 5-25 group, without necessarily thinking about the names and where precisely I'd order them in that group.

 

[Wild Bill]

I have a clear-cut top-4 now from last year's draft with the four talls in Logan McDonald, Riley Thilthorpe, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Nik Cox as those top 4 talents. From there things open up and there are a number of different ways I could go.

I expected more from Phillips in year one, though I remain optimistic he comes good and has a big year 2. He's part of that almost extended roughly 5-25 group, without necessarily thinking about the names and where precisely I'd order them in that group.

Really hard to come in and be very good in year 1 - they have limited pre-season (being drafted in early Dec) and limited football last year. Most 1st years have had big drop off in form - especially since the bye.

He has done some really exciting things and shown enough early to suggest he will be a good player.

 

[Knightmare]

Really hard to come in and be very good in year 1 - they have limited pre-season (being drafted in early Dec) and limited football last year. Most 1st years have had big drop off in form - especially since the bye.

He has done some really exciting things and shown enough early to suggest he will be a good player.

As a North Melbourne fan, who do you feel will be the better player out of Phillips and Powell? Now that you've had the chance to watch a bit of both of them.

 

[Wild Bill]

As a North Melbourne fan, who do you feel will be the better player out of Phillips and Powell? Now that you've had the chance to watch a bit of both of them.

Phillips - Powell had the better 1st year but he was one that plays the same way he did last year and his game is better suited to hit the ground running. He will be an accumulator where Phillips (IMO) has more class and will be more damaging – especially by foot. Tom Mitchell V Lachie Neale.

 

[nelk boys]

If you were Hawthorn and were thinking about our midfield needs, would you draft Callaghan or use that pick to get Cerra?

 

[Vimal Anand]

Callghan in current situation. But if you were contenting Cerra

If you were Hawthorn and were thinking about our midfield needs, would you draft Callaghan or use that pick to get Cerra?

On SM-A205YN using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[blueiris]

If you were Hawthorn and were thinking about our midfield needs, would you draft Callaghan or use that pick to get Cerra?

I’d trade for Cerra and then trade Mitchell to Richmond for a late first round pick picking up Amiss who some rate as the 2nd best forward in the draft killing 2 birds with one stone

 

[Knightmare]

If you were Hawthorn and were thinking about our midfield needs, would you draft Callaghan or use that pick to get Cerra?

If I could have one or the other, I'd take Cerra knowing he's a high calibre young established senior player v Callaghan who you're hoping develops as a boom/bust pick, and could be a little better, but could be a lot worse if he doesn't develop to expectation.

That said, if I have pick 2, I'd feel like I can get Cerra +. So that would be even better. Cerra and Fremantle's second round pick I feel like is a realistic return for pick 2 and would be the kind of deal I'd explore in Hawthorn's position.

 

[Vimal Anand]

Hi KM, from Dockers point of view , if we get pick 2 from Hawks should we use it or trade it for Brisbane's 2 first picks or Richmond's 2 firsts? Thank you

If I could have one or the other, I'd take Cerra knowing he's a high calibre young established senior player v Callaghan who you're hoping develops as a boom/bust pick, and could be a little better, but could be a lot worse if he doesn't develop to expectation.

That said, if I have pick 2, I'd feel like I can get Cerra +. So that would be even better. Cerra and Fremantle's second round pick I feel like is a realistic return for pick 2 and would be the kind of deal I'd explore in Hawthorn's position.

On SM-A205YN using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Swiggy]

Hi KM, from Dockers point of view , if we get pick 2 from Hawks should we use it or trade it for Brisbane's 2 first picks or Richmond's 2 firsts? Thank you

On SM-A205YN using BigFooty.com mobile app

Think it’s a pipe dream to think freo will have pick 2

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM, from Dockers point of view , if we get pick 2 from Hawks should we use it or trade it for Brisbane's 2 first picks or Richmond's 2 firsts? Thank you

On SM-A205YN using BigFooty.com mobile app

In that scenario Fremantle are lucky enough to receive a return of pick 2, I'd keep it. Getting later in the first round and the picks are even more hit and miss. The value isn't quite enough, particularly this year without the quality of late first round picks we're accustomed to. If there was a future first thrown in with those two picks, then I'd be doing that however without hesitation, even if it means giving up a later pick in addition to 2 to make it happen.

 

[Vimal Anand]

Yes. Just hypothetical

Think it’s a pipe dream to think freo will have pick 2

On SM-A205YN using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Vimal Anand]

Yes we should be lucky. Hope sam mitchell have Cerra in his plans. Any way.thank you for the reply.

In that scenario Fremantle are lucky enough to receive a return of pick 2, I'd keep it. Getting later in the first round and the picks are even more hit and miss. The value isn't quite enough, particularly this year without the quality of late first round picks we're accustomed to. If there was a future first thrown in with those two picks, then I'd be doing that however without hesitation, even if it means giving up a later pick in addition to 2 to make it happen.

On SM-A205YN using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[tenderwarrior]

I have a clear-cut top-4 now from last year's draft with the four talls in Logan McDonald, Riley Thilthorpe, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Nik Cox as those top 4 talents. From there things open up and there are a number of different ways I could go.

I expected more from Phillips in year one, though I remain optimistic he comes good and has a big year 2. He's part of that almost extended roughly 5-25 group, without necessarily thinking about the names and where precisely I'd order them in that group.

So what changed with Phillips dropping? Do you think he won't reach the standard you thought he would? I am just interested, as some players you tend to stick by with your initial thoughts regardless of early output, while others you are quicker to change your mind.

 

[Chris25]

Point of discussion: Will I be on my own in considering Joshua Cripps (younger and taller brother of Patrick) and Leek Aleer for my top-50 power rankings?

Bit late to the Alleer party. Been in my top 30 for the last few months. PMBangers has jumped on board too.

 

[curnow inferno]

KM, what pick is adam cerra worth in this year's draft in the open draft?

 

[briztoon]

AFL Draft wrap with a focus on Jason Horne:



Point of discussion: Will I be on my own in considering Joshua Cripps (younger and taller brother of Patrick) and Leek Aleer for my top-50 power rankings?

Article link:

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...rne-stuns-again-sanfl-south-adelaide-panthers

Have you watched Cripps play?

 

[Knightmare]

So what changed with Phillips dropping? Do you think he won't reach the standard you thought he would? I am just interested, as some players you tend to stick by with your initial thoughts regardless of early output, while others you are quicker to change your mind.

Last year I had a clear cut top-2 of Ugle-Hagan and McDonald as those 1a/1b picks. The better than expected play from Thilthorpe and Cox firstly see them join McDonald and Ugle-Hagan in that absolutely top tier, as two others I feel must be in that same conversation based on the signs they've shown this year. So those movements on their own force Phillips down.

I had Phillips on his own in my second tier last year, though I'd be more inclined to combine him into that next tier down. I was hoping for near Rowell/Walsh numbers and for Phillips to become North Melbourne's third or fourth best midfielder. That's obviously not the case and his play hasn't been on the level expected so I have had to revise down my estimates for his play, though he would still be in consideration as that 5th player as he has shown progress over the second half of the season and still looks like he'll be a very good midfielder.

Bit late to the Alleer party. Been in my top 30 for the last few months. PMBangers has jumped on board too.

What had you and PMBangers placing Alleer into your top-30s before his game v South Adelaide is what I'd be curious to hear?

I can't say on anything I'd seen before his game v South Adelaide I would have had him that high, with that easily the best he has played that I've seen at least, with the 5 contested marks and what felt like 6 or 7 intercept marks from his 8 marks selling me on him.

 

[Knightmare]

KM, what pick is adam cerra worth in this year's draft?

For me, Cerra is pick 2. Daicos/Horne I'd prefer to have. Darcy perhaps if he has more good games. But essentially after Horne is gone, I favour Cerra as the established player ahead of the second live pick.

That said, as clubs tend to overvalue early picks, and Cerra is a distressed asset in the sense that he wants to move to a Victorian club and there isn't a clear path to retaining him, he could be had for perhaps something closer to a pick 5-10 to guess, which for mine at least is a bargain as Cerra is one of the better young midfielders in the competition with the bonus being he has the skills and versatility beyond just being able to find and win his own footy.

Have you watched Cripps play?

I can't say I've been able to get my hands on any footage of Cripps, be it a school game or Colts game.

I'm on the lookout for any footage, so anyone with footage I'd be grateful if some could be shared.

Even putting aside the success of his brothers, being a late bloomer is what appeals. Still growing, showing improvement. That's a key component with talls as you're projecting ahead who they will develop into.

He's someone if I can find a way to get some game tape I'd consider for my top-50. But I would like to see him play first, as I don't know what his game looks like on the field.