Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[PMBangers]

You don't have a subscription to The West?

 

[briztoon]

I can't say I've been able to get my hands on any footage of Cripps, be it a school game or Colts game.

I'm on the lookout for any footage, so anyone with footage I'd be grateful if some could be shared.

Even putting aside the success of his brothers, being a late bloomer is what appeals. Still growing, showing improvement. That's a key component with talls as you're projecting ahead who they will develop into.

He's someone if I can find a way to get some game tape I'd consider for my top-50. But I would like to see him play first, as I don't know what his game looks like on the field.

So you’re posing a question, intimating you’re considering him a top 50 prospect without having seen him play?

He’s not a late developer as such, he’s just come back after doing his acl 12 1/2 months ago. He’s an overage player this year.

He wasn’t considered a draft prospect last year, in his draft year, before doing his acl mid June.

 

[Knightmare]

You don't have a subscription to The West?

I was subscribed earlier in the year but unsubscribed more recently. Supporting a service that charges as much as they do and only offer one game a week I don't consider a suitable value proposition for my use case.

If they had a one day signup, and you could cancel after one day, and keep doing that weekly just to tune into the games they put up there, just like if you were to buy a newspaper for a day, I'd be utilising them more. But given they don't, and it's ridiculous they don't given they're a newspaper service and it's all digital so of no cost to themselves, the NAB League, VFL and SANFL have a greater degree of my attention other than the WAFL League matches I can find either on channel 7 or YouTube - which is more than adequate for the time being given I watched the first half of season WAFL Colts matches on their service.

I'll probably go back for another month at the end of the season just to re-watch those WAFL colts games they stream and catch up on those I've missed while I've been unsubscribed, and certainly will have to if there is no U19 Champs, but even then it would be a disgruntled subscription, not believing in supporting services that don't present adequate value.

And watching as much footy as I do across all the competitions I cover, I don't mind having one less service I need to be subscribed to and coughing money up to every month.

So you’re posing a question, intimating you’re considering him a top 50 prospect without having seen him play?

He’s not a late developer as such, he’s just come back after doing his acl 12 1/2 months ago. He’s an overage player this year.

He wasn’t considered a draft prospect last year, in his draft year, before doing his acl mid June.

The information you're providing is what I've already reported on ESPN.

The component I'd question is the notion that Cripps isn't a late developer. Last year he was recorded at 197cm. This year on the WAFL site he's listed at 199cm, and going off of that trajectory, I wouldn't be shocked if he were still growing and can pass 200cm. And if he's still growing, and has that level of PB game, that also tells me that his game is likely continuing to develop. So he's one where he's right up the top of the list of players I want to see some matches of to determine his viability for a spot inside my top-50, as the late growers and late developers often have a lot of untapped potential that with some years in the system can be extracted. Particularly given he hasn't had that exposure in the WAFL Colts until recent weeks. There should be substantial scope for development from his current state.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

How much do you weight that Walsh being a number 1 pick in a superdraft compared to as you say Horne/Daicos when the rest of the pool isnt as strong? Statistically I would think it would be much easier to overperform against lesser talent than against a more stacked group?

 

[blueiris]

Late draft say picks in the range of 15 to 21 what players would be worth the Lions targeting? Would like some names to study

 

[PMBangers]

I was subscribed earlier in the year but unsubscribed more recently. Supporting a service that charges as much as they do and only offer one game a week I don't consider a suitable value proposition for my use case.

If they had a one day signup, and you could cancel after one day, and keep doing that weekly just to tune into the games they put up there, just like if you were to buy a newspaper for a day, I'd be utilising them more. But given they don't, and it's ridiculous they don't given they're a newspaper service and it's all digital so of no cost to themselves, the NAB League, VFL and SANFL have a greater degree of my attention other than the WAFL League matches I can find either on channel 7 or YouTube - which is more than adequate for the time being given I watched the first half of season WAFL Colts matches on their service.

I'll probably go back for another month at the end of the season just to re-watch those WAFL colts games they stream and catch up on those I've missed while I've been unsubscribed, and certainly will have to if there is no U19 Champs, but even then it would be a disgruntled subscription, not believing in supporting services that don't present adequate value.

And watching as much footy as I do across all the competitions I cover, I don't mind having one less service I need to be subscribed to and coughing money up to every month.

You won't believe it but you'll be treated to a Cripps master class v Peel!

 

[Knightmare]

How much do you weight that Walsh being a number 1 pick in a superdraft compared to as you say Horne/Daicos when the rest of the pool isnt as strong? Statistically I would think it would be much easier to overperform against lesser talent than against a more stacked group?

2018 was something else with Lukosius, Rankine, Smith, Walsh and M.King all respectively the calibre of player where they'd each be in the mix at 1 this year. And that next group down even was seriously good with Blakely, Caldwell, B.King. As I had on my draft board at the time as that second group who I look at favourably to everyone outside the top-3 this year.

Certainly I'd be valuing each selection at least within the first round this year much lower than 2018, as 2018 had an All-time level top end.

This year does by contrast drop off a lot quicker. Daicos and Horne are the top-2. Darcy probably that third guy if he has a few more seriously special games. Then I can make a case for a few after that who can be very good, but are highly unlikely to be best at your club by position level as would have been easy to assume with each of those top end guys taken in 2018.

Daicos is finding life easy playing against this year's weak NAB League competition. He's finding it and hitting the scoreboard on a level even Walsh wasn't for a point of comparison, whereas you put Daicos into that draft pool and I'd be expecting a slight but still not substantial reduction in his numbers. If we have an U19 Champs this year, the numbers of Daicos and Horne respectively this year wouldn't be as strong in 2018 against those guys. Having Smith and Walsh as midfielders, those guys are equivalent if not a touch better than Daicos and Horne respectively, and that's before counting the next names down or looking at how all-time unbelievable the top end KPPs were in 2018.

Late draft say picks in the range of 15 to 21 what players would be worth the Lions targeting? Would like some names to study

If I had a pick 15-21, Matthew Roberts, Mac Andrew, Bodhi Uwland, Josh Goater, Josh Rachele, Connor MacDonald, Tyler Sonsie and Arlo Draper are a few I'd be discussing with my team. If Roberts and Andrew aren't there, and this is a left field choice who I'm not aware of even being on anyone else's draft board, let alone in the first round conversation, but Bodhi Uwland I feel like would be the perfect fit in that range as that Hodge/Birchall replacement in defence. And he could be just as good if not better through the midfield. Uwland I only would consider bidding on so early because he is Gold Coast Academy, so bid on him that early and there is no way they would match unless they regard him as highly as I do. If for whatever reason Gold Coast don't have interest in taking Uwland national draft, then a bid could come later and that would be even better. Having seen Uwland in NAB League and VFL, he's one of my absolute favourites this year. Check out my weekly wrap on him and you'll find it hard not to get excited too.

If you're after some names late draft, Jack Avery is another who is a plug and play calibre general defender. And late draft there are so many I'm liking where they probably won't be appearing on other draft boards. Angus Baker as a mature age defender. Tyrone Thorne as a small mid/fwd with wheels. The likes of Max Pescud, Saxon Crozier, Sam Frost and Josh Clarke as overagers are some to look at top of mind also and could similarly fill list holes as last pick in draft or rookie type picks who are flying under the radar but playing exceptional footy respectively.

You won't believe it but you'll be treated to a Cripps master class v Peel!

5 disposals and 3 behinds in the WAFL Colts is a master class? He'd have to have done that in one quarter of action to have me excited about that performance.

East Fremantle have been good to watch this year though with Browne, Woewodin and Williams in particular impressive, so they're always a good group to tune into.

If you've seen Cripps, what is your assessment of his play to date? How many games of him have you seen to have some context and what do you view as his strengths/weaknesses to get a preliminary perspective?

 

[Chris25]

What had you and PMBangers placing Alleer into your top-30s before his game v South Adelaide is what I'd be curious to hear?

Rate of development from last year, huge upside. Round 11 vs West solidified his spot on my board and as the top mature aged prospect.

 

[chopflop]

Where would you take lukosious in that draft now in retrospect?

 

[PMBangers]

5 disposals and 3 behinds in the WAFL Colts is a master class? He'd have to have done that in one quarter of action to have me excited about that performance.

East Fremantle have been good to watch this year though with Browne, Woewodin and Williams in particular impressive, so they're always a good group to tune into.

If you've seen Cripps, what is your assessment of his play to date? How many games of him have you seen to have some context and what do you view as his strengths/weaknesses to get a preliminary perspective?

I've seen the one against Peel, he reminds me of a less athletic and less aerially dominant Jack Williams tbh, and that's an already pretty low base for the athleticism

 

[Knightmare]

Rate of development from last year, huge upside. Round 11 vs West solidified his spot on my board and as the top mature aged prospect.

Can't say I saw the game, so fair enough. Will review it if it's a key game for him. Did he go something like 7/8 marks as intercept marks?

Any other mature agers you like this year?

Where would you take lukosious in that draft now in retrospect?

That's the big question, and maybe over the offseason I complete some draft re-do videos.

Walsh is playing the best football this year of the 2018 draft crop, and Butters was last year, but with those talls tending to break out in season 4 and make their most dramatic jumps, with Butters missing this season with injury and not having the opportunity to defend his crown, with Smith not getting regular CBAs every week, with Thomas coming into his own this year, I think we'll see some special football from a lot of them.

What I can answer with confidence at this point is any two of those guys I'd take over any one, no matter who the individual is.

If I could have only one from that 2018 draft today, it would have to be Walsh. He's durable and he's balling. Though it would be tempting to shift him for Lukosius + one more of those others if I could.

On Lukosius more directly though, he's actually as we speak doing something historic this season, and I might make a video on it in future weeks as I don't think anyone has mention or even aware of what exactly it is he's doing. Is Lukosius the pick over Butters, Thomas, Smith or the King's? Even that's hard to answer and not clear at this stage. They all for me belong in that same conversation and they're all heading towards the elite, if not the uber elite level, and week to week I'd have a different answer to you as I don't see any meaningful separation. They're all looking great, and that's why the top end from 2018 is looking all-time.

I've seen the one against Peel, he reminds me of a less athletic and less aerially dominant Jack Williams tbh, and that's an already pretty low base for the athleticism

Not all that surprising given the body type and shape of Patrick. Any feel for any of the other components to his game? Or just I'm assuming inadequate involvements to have any kind of feel as to his ground level work/skills/versatility?

 

[PMBangers]

Not all that surprising given the body type and shape of Patrick. Any feel for any of the other components to his game? Or just I'm assuming inadequate involvements to have any kind of feel as to his ground level work/skills/versatility?

I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume it was him being eased back from injury, but he didn't really leave the 50 enough to show anything

 

[chopflop]

On Lukosius more directly though, he's actually as we speak doing something historic this season, and I might make a video on it in future weeks as I don't think anyone has mention or even aware of what exactly it is he's doing. Is Lukosius the pick over Butters, Thomas, Smith or the King's? Even that's hard to answer and not clear at this stage. They all for me belong in that same conversation and they're all heading towards the elite, if not the uber elite level, and week to week I'd have a different answer to you as I don't see any meaningful separation. They're all looking great, and that's why the top end from 2018 is looking all-time.

IMO

Walsh, King x 2, Smith, Rozee, Thomas, Blakey, Butters, Duursma I would take before Lukosius.

I assume you are referring to his MG stats which are obviously inflated with the kick-out rule. I've watched him once this year and he had twenty-odd, but his opponent Dylan Moore (who has elite work-rate) absolutely torched him with 18disp, 8m and 2.2. For me, he is a skinny and unaccountable HBF who lacks physicality and can kick a football. Nowhere near those top prospects from that draft and doesn't belong in the same breath as Walsh and kings

 

[Knightmare]

IMO

Walsh, King x 2, Smith, Rozee, Thomas, Blakey, Butters, Duursma I would take before Lukosius.

I assume you are referring to his MG stats which are obviously inflated with the kick-out rule. I've watched him once this year and he had twenty-odd, but his opponent Dylan Moore (who has elite work-rate) absolutely torched him with 18disp, 8m and 2.2. For me, he is a skinny and unaccountable HBF who lacks physicality and can kick a football. Nowhere near those top prospects from that draft and doesn't belong in the same breath as Walsh and kings

Rozee I'd add into that conversation with those others top talents from 2018.

Blakey and Duursma though I have a long way behind Lukosius. Duursma is very good, but I don't see the upside with his game compared to the best talents. Blakey has really struggled this year and hasn't looked up to AFL standard until this past month or so.

Lukosius actually played on a wing through the first half of the season and only in this second half has shifted back into defence. Bowes mostly early on was actually the one taking the kickouts for Gold Coast as Lukosius was up the field. So it's not like he has monopolised kickouts all season, and even now, he's not even getting the most kickouts for the Suns, with Powell taking the most and Bowes taking as many v Carlton.

Dylan Moore isn't a scrub. He's having a good year and is one of Hawthorn's better young pieces.

Needless to say my position on Lukosius is very much contrasting to your own. He'd be a part of my All-Australian second team if there were such a thing. He's already on that level.

I have no problem at all if I'm Lukosius' loudest fan. He's a special footballer, doing special things already week-in-week-out, and he's not even in season four. I really look forward to making my next Jack Lukosius video and talking about what he's doing this season. His play for Gold Coast it sounds like is being slept on mightily.

 

[ModernArtillery]

I have no problem at all if I'm Lukosius' loudest fan. He's a special footballer, doing special things already week-in-week-out, and he's not even in season four. I really look forward to making my next Jack Lukosius video and talking about what he's doing this season. His play for Gold Coast it sounds like is being slept on mightily.

I don't think his performances are necessarily being slept on. I think he's pretty widely regarded as one of the best users by foot in the comp. His contested footy and defensive efforts have been well below par though and until that improves I don't think he'll get the recognition you believe he deserves.

 

[adonski]

Lukosius is HBF Jack Watts with a better PR team

 

[Mt Isa Mustang]

Rozee I'd add into that conversation with those others top talents from 2018.

Blakey and Duursma though I have a long way behind Lukosius. Duursma is very good, but I don't see the upside with his game compared to the best talents. Blakey has really struggled this year and hasn't looked up to AFL standard until this past month or so.

Lukosius actually played on a wing through the first half of the season and only in this second half has shifted back into defence. Bowes mostly early on was actually the one taking the kickouts for Gold Coast as Lukosius was up the field. So it's not like he has monopolised kickouts all season, and even now, he's not even getting the most kickouts for the Suns, with Powell taking the most and Bowes taking as many v Carlton.

Dylan Moore isn't a scrub. He's having a good year and is one of Hawthorn's better young pieces.

Needless to say my position on Lukosius is very much contrasting to your own. He'd be a part of my All-Australian second team if there were such a thing. He's already on that level.

I have no problem at all if I'm Lukosius' loudest fan. He's a special footballer, doing special things already week-in-week-out, and he's not even in season four. I really look forward to making my next Jack Lukosius video and talking about what he's doing this season. His play for Gold Coast it sounds like is being slept on mightily.

At least you stick to your guns.
Lukosius can open up a game with his kicking
He creates scoring chances that otherwise just aren't there because of his long penetrating kicks that move with serious heat.

In saying that

Has only kicked 3 goals 11 behinds this year.. Need to be hitting 15+ goals a year as a wingmen and at least 10 as a half back flanker.
9 goal assists and. 4.5 score assists is ok - but I think should be a little higher for someone with his skill set.

His decision making about when to laser it is improving, but still tries to hit kicks that the recipient is not capable of taking.
Turns it over a fair bit - which is ok, but has certainly cost a few goals.

His physicality definitely needs to improve - I'm sure it will as be matures but at this stage he is prone to getting pushed out of a marking contest or off a contested ball when on the ground. Doesn't look to be the body type where this will come easily.

Would have him in the top 5 or so suns players this year probably. He is equal 5th for the suns in coaches votes this year (1. Miller, 2. Anderson, 3. Greenwood, 4. Ellis, 5. King and Lukosius)

Not saying a huge amount, but still a recognisable progression year on year so far for Jack which is all we can ask for - continued improvement.

To say he is in your 2nd AA team is a bit of a leap though.
In the top 12 defenders (or top 4 wingmen) in the comp... not sure about that at this point.
Certainly hope he could get there in the not too distant future.

 

[Bojan KantKick]

I had Phillips on his own in my second tier last year, though I'd be more inclined to combine him into that next tier down. I was hoping for near Rowell/Walsh numbers and for Phillips to become North Melbourne's third or fourth best midfielder. That's obviously not the case and his play hasn't been on the level expected so I have had to revise down my estimates for his play, though he would still be in consideration as that 5th player as he has shown progress over the second half of the season and still looks like he'll be a very good midfielder.

Bit harsh with the benefit of hindsight. Missed a year of footy due to covid and then missed a lot of preseason with an injury. Started on a half forward flank and struggled a bit. Went back to the VFL and played on the ball racking up big numbers. Had some good games on the ball in the AFL in the back half of the year. 16 and 17 disposals on the ball against Melbourne and Geelong isn't bad for a first year player. Isn't an accumulator type but never wastes a possession. Think he'll step up a bit next year with a preseason under his belt.

 

[Knightmare]

I don't think his performances are necessarily being slept on. I think he's pretty widely regarded as one of the best users by foot in the comp. His contested footy and defensive efforts have been well below par though and until that improves I don't think he'll get the recognition you believe he deserves.

I could reframe my comment this way. There are guys who are all-around players and there are guys who are special in specific facets of the game. Lukosius is in that latter category and has his mix of special facets that make him an incredibly valuable footballer. When you're looking at guys who are all time special in particular categories, those areas of deficiency matter very little if you're using them correctly to feature those special strengths to a high frequency.

Lukosius is HBF Jack Watts with a better PR team

Jack Watts while not on Lukosius' level at any stage in his career was a very capable and underrated footballer. He was a legit piece at either end of the field and someone at any stage of his career I would have loved to have had on his list.

The similarity is they're both on inexperienced sides that respectively have any history of struggling to maximise the development of their players to expectation, so hopefully Gold Coast can allow Lukosius to take additional steps forward, as he hasn't been able to develop all that much further than where he was at in the second half of his first year after making that shift into defence.

At least you stick to your guns.
Lukosius can open up a game with his kicking
He creates scoring chances that otherwise just aren't there because of his long penetrating kicks that move with serious heat.

In saying that

Has only kicked 3 goals 11 behinds this year.. Need to be hitting 15+ goals a year as a wingmen and at least 10 as a half back flanker.
9 goal assists and. 4.5 score assists is ok - but I think should be a little higher for someone with his skill set.

His decision making about when to laser it is improving, but still tries to hit kicks that the recipient is not capable of taking.
Turns it over a fair bit - which is ok, but has certainly cost a few goals.

His physicality definitely needs to improve - I'm sure it will as be matures but at this stage he is prone to getting pushed out of a marking contest or off a contested ball when on the ground. Doesn't look to be the body type where this will come easily.

Would have him in the top 5 or so suns players this year probably. He is equal 5th for the suns in coaches votes this year (1. Miller, 2. Anderson, 3. Greenwood, 4. Ellis, 5. King and Lukosius)

Not saying a huge amount, but still a recognisable progression year on year so far for Jack which is all we can ask for - continued improvement.

To say he is in your 2nd AA team is a bit of a leap though.
In the top 12 defenders (or top 4 wingmen) in the comp... not sure about that at this point.
Certainly hope he could get there in the not too distant future.

I see the volumes increasing further with Lukosius. And there are a few categories he's doing historic things. Playing the first half of the year on a wing, his numbers relatively speaking were remarkable, and in defence he's dominating in ways no one else in the competition can to the same level.

Miller has been Gold Coast's best this year and Greenwood is that next guy and very much underrated if I'm to excuse him for the 4 games missed - being so high volume contested and then so influential defensively, a lot of people wouldn't realise how much of a difference maker he is, I've never in my life seen a midfielder who can have less than 20 disposals more weeks than not and consistently in doing that have a best afield level impact, he might be the most underrated midfielder in the competition. I've got Lukosius as that third most valuable contributor this season on the Suns, ahead of King who would be my 4th, and I could have them either way around and feel they're in a similar conversation, though I feel like there is an even greater scarcity around Lukosius and what he does as he's a true one of a kind whereas King isn't yet a top-10 key forward in the competition and more likely next year breaks into that mix. And Collins although he hasn't been as good as he was last year would be my 5th for this year.

Anderson next year could well be in my top-5 Suns, Witts will be back and hopefully playing good footy and Ballard I also hold in high regard with his intercepting capabilities. Powell could enter that conversation and wouldn't be far behind Collins on play this year. While Bowes and Swallow I respect the games of.

Ellis I'm not as high on. He racks it up and I'm not disputing he's a capable component, but it's still a lot of empty possessions for me at least and I view him behind all those others.

Bit harsh with the benefit of hindsight. Missed a year of footy due to covid and then missed a lot of preseason with an injury. Started on a half forward flank and struggled a bit. Went back to the VFL and played on the ball racking up big numbers. Had some good games on the ball in the AFL in the back half of the year. 16 and 17 disposals on the ball against Melbourne and Geelong isn't bad for a first year player. Isn't an accumulator type but never wastes a possession. Think he'll step up a bit next year with a preseason under his belt.

My hope with Phillips was that he would be something more like an 18-20d average per game, even off of the limited preparation and without playing in 2020. What people forget is he was putting up numbers superior even to Rowell at the same age. I'm floored looking at his stats and seeing he has yet to exceed 17 disposals when I'm aware of how incredible he was racking it up in the juniors. Even if he's not playing full time midfield, I'd be expecting a lot more than that.

The curious thing with Phillips is his ball use is a lot better at AFL level (and I'm sure it's the work he has put in) than it was even in the junior ranks from the now three North Melbourne games I've watched. He actually as a junior was inconsistent by foot at times, but looking more consistent and reliable now to his credit.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

I’d trade for Cerra and then trade Mitchell to Richmond for a late first round pick picking up Amiss who some rate as the 2nd best forward in the draft killing 2 birds with one stone

I ain't trading for Cerra when there are talents in this draft that could surpass him. Mitchell is not leaving unless we get a god father offer, in amazing form atm and getting back to 2018 form. Hasn't had a full preseason since 2018 and will only improve on what he's doing now. Plus we need to keep our best and taking into account his leadership etc.

 

[adonski]

Jack Watts while not on Lukosius' level at any stage in his career was a very capable and underrated footballer. He was a legit piece at either end of the field and someone at any stage of his career I would have loved to have had on his list.

The similarity is they're both on inexperienced sides that respectively have any history of struggling to maximise the development of their players to expectation, so hopefully Gold Coast can allow Lukosius to take additional steps forward, as he hasn't been able to develop all that much further than where he was at in the second half of his first year after making that shift into defence.

Agree, Watts was good, just not pick 1 quality.

I get similar vibes from Luko tho, excellent talent but a bit soft and probs doesn't have those strong intangibles you need to be quite as good as you could be

 

[Ah12]

With all respect i genuinely think your overrating of Lukosious is extremely far fetched and bias at this stage of his career. Hes a solid player and could become good but at this stage hes under achieved massively imo. He plays as a back flanker in a team that has no support up forward for King. He gets caught holding the ball regularly and has no phsyical edge to his game whatsoever. To even have him in the conversation with Walsh, Butters, king x2, Rozee and Smith is laughable at this stage. This bloke was the 2nd coming of Nick Riewoldt and they have him squibbing it up at half back.

 

[ModernArtillery]

I could reframe my comment this way. There are guys who are all-around players and there are guys who are special in specific facets of the game. Lukosius is in that latter category and has his mix of special facets that make him an incredibly valuable footballer. When you're looking at guys who are all time special in particular categories, those areas of deficiency matter very little if you're using them correctly to feature those special strengths to a high frequency.

But those areas of deficiency we're talking about are contested footy and defensive effort. If I'm not mistaken, winning a low percentage of possessions contested has been something you've knocked players for pretty consistently, regardless of role or position.

I can cop Dusty, Ablett, Fyfe, Dangerfield etc chasing the footy and having little regard for their opponent because they're going to win the contested footy more often than not. They are ball winners. What I can't cop is Lukosius, as a wing or half back, plodding around when the ball is turned over, not being prepared to win his own footy and not being prepared to compete/defend one on one. He doesn't have to be elite at those things, he only really has to be average at them because as you say, his special facets make him incredibly valuable.

Despite the way it sounds, I'm a believer in his talent and think these things are more a matter of application rather than lack of ability. I just don't think it's reasonable to excuse them because of his talent as ball user. And to be clear, I'm not suggesting Lukosius should be dropped, I'm not suggesting he can't play or that there's no role for him or anything like that. I just feel that until he does something to fix those deficiencies he will not get the recognition you think he deserves, nor should he.

 

[Mt Isa Mustang]

I could reframe my comment this way. There are guys who are all-around players and there are guys who are special in specific facets of the game. Lukosius is in that latter category and has his mix of special facets that make him an incredibly valuable footballer. When you're looking at guys who are all time special in particular categories, those areas of deficiency matter very little if you're using them correctly to feature those special strengths to a high frequency.



Jack Watts while not on Lukosius' level at any stage in his career was a very capable and underrated footballer. He was a legit piece at either end of the field and someone at any stage of his career I would have loved to have had on his list.

The similarity is they're both on inexperienced sides that respectively have any history of struggling to maximise the development of their players to expectation, so hopefully Gold Coast can allow Lukosius to take additional steps forward, as he hasn't been able to develop all that much further than where he was at in the second half of his first year after making that shift into defence.



I see the volumes increasing further with Lukosius. And there are a few categories he's doing historic things. Playing the first half of the year on a wing, his numbers relatively speaking were remarkable, and in defence he's dominating in ways no one else in the competition can to the same level.

Miller has been Gold Coast's best this year and Greenwood is that next guy and very much underrated if I'm to excuse him for the 4 games missed - being so high volume contested and then so influential defensively, a lot of people wouldn't realise how much of a difference maker he is, I've never in my life seen a midfielder who can have less than 20 disposals more weeks than not and consistently in doing that have a best afield level impact, he might be the most underrated midfielder in the competition. I've got Lukosius as that third most valuable contributor this season on the Suns, ahead of King who would be my 4th, and I could have them either way around and feel they're in a similar conversation, though I feel like there is an even greater scarcity around Lukosius and what he does as he's a true one of a kind whereas King isn't yet a top-10 key forward in the competition and more likely next year breaks into that mix. And Collins although he hasn't been as good as he was last year would be my 5th for this year.

Anderson next year could well be in my top-5 Suns, Witts will be back and hopefully playing good footy and Ballard I also hold in high regard with his intercepting capabilities. Powell could enter that conversation and wouldn't be far behind Collins on play this year. While Bowes and Swallow I respect the games of.

Ellis I'm not as high on. He racks it up and I'm not disputing he's a capable component, but it's still a lot of empty possessions for me at least and I view him behind all those others.



My hope with Phillips was that he would be something more like an 18-20d average per game, even off of the limited preparation and without playing in 2020. What people forget is he was putting up numbers superior even to Rowell at the same age. I'm floored looking at his stats and seeing he has yet to exceed 17 disposals when I'm aware of how incredible he was racking it up in the juniors. Even if he's not playing full time midfield, I'd be expecting a lot more than that.

The curious thing with Phillips is his ball use is a lot better at AFL level (and I'm sure it's the work he has put in) than it was even in the junior ranks from the now three North Melbourne games I've watched. He actually as a junior was inconsistent by foot at times, but looking more consistent and reliable now to his credit.

Agree re: Greenwood.
Disagree re: Ellis. I also thought that way before he came but have been really impressed with his defensive winger work. Commitment in the air flying back with the flight and capacity to crack in when situations demands has surprised me a bit.
He finished 5th in suns b+f last year so think the coaches recognise his importance too.

 

[Knightmare]

I ain't trading for Cerra when there are talents in this draft that could surpass him. Mitchell is not leaving unless we get a god father offer, in amazing form atm and getting back to 2018 form. Hasn't had a full preseason since 2018 and will only improve on what he's doing now. Plus we need to keep our best and taking into account his leadership etc.

I have the odds at 60/40 Cerra proves better than the eventual second live pick, with the other component being, with Cerra a really good mid, if the second live pick is better, it won't be by a lot, whereas if that pick fails, it could be a complete failure for all we know. That's a rough feel for the odds. So you'd want to be very high conviction taking that player and really think they'd be clearly better. And Hawthorn may feel that way, but I'd be looking for a Callaghan to have a cracking finals series to all that closely consider going in another direction if I had that opportunity.

Tom Mitchell is certainly an asset for Hawthorn.

Agree, Watts was good, just not pick 1 quality.

I get similar vibes from Luko tho, excellent talent but a bit soft and probs doesn't have those strong intangibles you need to be quite as good as you could be

You won't have anyone disagreeing with you on Watts not being worth pick one needless to say. Top of mind, I could name 15 guys from that draft who have been better.

And I don't disagree either with you on your thoughts around Lukosius and the way he plays.

Will there be 15 better in the 2018 draft than Lukosius though? I'm not seeing that. He's already on a level beyond what Watts would reach, and he's just three seasons in. Gold Coast just need to put in work developing him.

With all respect i genuinely think your overrating of Lukosious is extremely far fetched and bias at this stage of his career. Hes a solid player and could become good but at this stage hes under achieved massively imo. He plays as a back flanker in a team that has no support up forward for King. He gets caught holding the ball regularly and has no phsyical edge to his game whatsoever. To even have him in the conversation with Walsh, Butters, king x2, Rozee and Smith is laughable at this stage. This bloke was the 2nd coming of Nick Riewoldt and they have him squibbing it up at half back.

It has been surprising Gold Coast haven't been able to get more out of Lukosius forward of centre, but with most scores coming off the turnover, Lukosius can become the competition's premier score creator from this source and one of the competition's most influential through that and the sheer drive and metres gained he generates, which he's already generating.

There aren't all that many general defenders who are better than Lukosius, and we're talking about a third year 195cm guy. No one at his height has ever done anything like what he's doing at his age in terms of being as damaging as he is by foot, at the volume we're seeing.

It's a completely contrasting position and role to each of those other top picks from 2018, but I don't see it as a reason to exclude him from the conversation of the best players from that pool. If I was asked to name my top-10 general defenders in the competition on performance this year, Lukosius is already there. And that's even before assessing his durability as one of the rare stars who doesn't miss games which only helps him when assessing value provided in a season when compared to a say Hurn who still is one of the competition's best general defenders at his age and stage but has missed games which hurts him in a comparison.

But those areas of deficiency we're talking about are contested footy and defensive effort. If I'm not mistaken, winning a low percentage of possessions contested has been something you've knocked players for pretty consistently, regardless of role or position.

I can cop Dusty, Ablett, Fyfe, Dangerfield etc chasing the footy and having little regard for their opponent because they're going to win the contested footy more often than not. They are ball winners. What I can't cop is Lukosius, as a wing or half back, plodding around when the ball is turned over, not being prepared to win his own footy and not being prepared to compete/defend one on one. He doesn't have to be elite at those things, he only really has to be average at them because as you say, his special facets make him incredibly valuable.

Despite the way it sounds, I'm a believer in his talent and think these things are more a matter of application rather than lack of ability. I just don't think it's reasonable to excuse them because of his talent as ball user. And to be clear, I'm not suggesting Lukosius should be dropped, I'm not suggesting he can't play or that there's no role for him or anything like that. I just feel that until he does something to fix those deficiencies he will not get the recognition you think he deserves, nor should he.

In defence I don't look at contested capabilities as all that necessary. It's a nice to have, but not an essential for me back there. Through the midfield and ruck it's vital and a non negotiable for me, absolutely. But in defence the keys for me are high volume intercepting and high quality rebounding if I can have any two things, with the next down the line being dominant 1v1 capabilities and ideally on a level where those contests can be turned into intercept marks. And if Lukosius is awarded more kickouts and if he gets asked to intercept more and can becomes elite in facets, he's only going to further increase upon his already historically great metres gained numbers.

And on my side, I'm not suggesting he shouldn't work on his areas of deficiency. He needs to get stronger, become a stronger contested mark, stronger contested ball winner, stronger in 1v1 contests and ideally turn 1v1s into a mark. That's all obviously going to make him into a better and more complete footballer. He would benefit from continuing to build his endurance base so that he can cover even more ground and present up at the ball even more often, to take that up yet another gear. And as I've already mentioned, I'd like to see him continue to improve his intercepting capabilities, as having his rebounding capabilities, that's what's going to lead towards more of his kicks generating scores off of turnovers, as if he's the one intercepting, there is even less time of opposition defences to set up behind the ball. So there is substantial opportunity for Lukosius to improve still, and disappointingly Gold Coast haven't been able to develop him in these areas, but moving the ball the way he does, at the frequency he does, even with all those areas of deficiency as things stand at the moment, he's still incredibly damaging and just someone you ensure you have the right pieces around to enable Lukosius to do his thing.

With all that said, I still love his game. For his age, there isn't anyone at his height who can do what he can do, and if we're to explore general defenders under the age of 22. There isn't anyone in my view better. He's a third year player at 195cm, and no one has recorded a higher average of metres gained per game in the history of the stat. And Lukosius remains someone where if I could have essentially two of him in defence - one taking kickouts, another across half-back, another on a wing, and another across half-forward, as that player across each line to look for at every available opportunity on an offensive drive, the other team would be in trouble. I'd have no problem accommodating that as part of a team that has the pieces around him to ensure there is the forward pressure up the field and ball winning capabilities through the midfield, allowing Lukosius to be the driver of the footy and that primary linkup guy you look for at every available opportunity.