RussellEbertHandball
Flick pass expert
As requested I have replicated my post, and added a bit more info about the 2001 draft, about how ever year at least 1 side goes from the bottom 8 to top 4 at the end of the home and away part of the season and how at least 1 side goes from the top 8 to the bottom 4.
Things in football indeed change very quickly, as has been highlighted in these 3 threads.
Mead's thread in January 2005
Why every top 4 prediction is wrong.
Dan 26's thread about top 4 in October 2006 and re-proved in Sept 2007 and 2008
Since '94, a side from outside the 8 has made the top 4 every year. Who's next?
And Dan 26's thread about top 4 and bottom 4 in March 2007.
Ladder prediction thread with a difference. You must adhere to the following rules;
I updated the last thread at this post for the last 2 seasons:
Ladder prediction thread with a difference. You must adhere to the following rules:
I am confident that we could be the side or one of the sides that missed the finals in 2008 and slots into the top 4 next year. I predicted Geelong and us in 2007 and missed the Kangaroos, and I predicted St Kilda and missed the Bulldogs this year. I play a tip the wins comp at the start of every year with about 15 mates. Won the $150 last year but tipped too many wins for Port and WCE this year and not enough for the Bulldogs and missed the $160 prize this year.
Why does this happen?
The reason it happens is simple, I think. Finish bottom 8 and you have an extra 4 to 6 weeks to do a fuller preseason, you book blokes in early for an operation so that they get a full pre season or close to a full pre season. Usually these are your key players. Finals sides get injuries to players, sometimes long term ones whilst the non finalists are resting. The key to having a good year is that most of your players do a full pre season and have the miles in their legs to last the year.
Some teams who have a stuff up year after a couple of good years get pissed off and finally get it together. Case in point is Geelong. 2004 finished 4th but could have made a GF couldn't quiet get over Brisbane in the PF, 2005 they lost the unloseable semi final to Sydney, 2006 the wheels fell off, a complete review, some blokes in for early surgery and everybody does a full pre season and commit to achieve their full potential.
If you look at the teams that made a big jump, usually the year before or 2 years before were good ones.
Also players who have missed most of a season come back from long term injuries and make a difference, especially senior mid fields or KPPs. Luck with injuries is also another reason this happens.
The opposite happens with top 8 sides. They might scrape into the finals but lose good players over the finals of preseason. Shorter pre seasons stuff up players form the following year. Sometimes it's as simple as they lose their edge mentally, either losing a few close games or the general crap that sometimes surrounds footy clubs.
If we weren't 8-1 in 2007, and 0-8 in 2008, in games involving 18 pt margins or less and were closer to 5-4 and 4-4 we may well have finished 6th in 2007 and maybe 4th in 2008. So we aren't that far away from top 4, the question is how far are we really away from no.1? In 2000 did it look 2 to 4 years away?
However it is still great drafting and trading that sets a 5 to 7 year process in play to win a flag. Look at Geelong, their premiership and maybe dynasty was set up with drafting between 1999 and 2002. Comparing last years GF sides
Comparing us to Geelong, people have to remember that they have bigger bodies because they have been in the system longer. Look at how the majority of their group came thru the draft system:
1999 Corey, Chapman, Ling, Enright, traded for Mooney
2000 Hunt
2001 Bartel, Kelly, Steve Johnson, Ablett, David Johnson the so called super draft
2002 Mackie, Lonergan, Rooke was a rookie elevation.
And in that same period we drafted:
1999 no one left
2000 Shaun, Kane, Dom
2001 White, Brogan rookie elevation the so called super draft
2002 Salopek, Ebert
For older players it was pretty equal at last years GF.
We had Tredders, Peter, Wilbur and Ladey from our original 96 squad + Chad in 97 and Toby in 98. They had King and Milburn from 95, Scarlett 97, Harley and Wojinski in 98.
So to win next year or 2010, you have to see what the 2004, 05, 06 in particular, and the 07 kids do to become key players.
So drafting a few years earlier is important but a year or too before success can also be important. However Joel Selwood is a good case in point that if a kid bulks up quicker under their system and when you are the 5th best mid fielder you don't get as much attention and can devlop quicker as well.
2001 was the first so called super draft. Compare our draft trading to Geelong to see how along with their 99 draft they built a premiership around the 2001 kids.
2001
15 Barry Brooks
31 Traded to Essendon for Hardwick, they draft Renyolds
47 Traded to Essendon for Hardwick, they draft Welsh
62 Damon White
76 Jared Poulton was delisted and redrafted in the same year. (played 55/88 after redraft)
Trade Hardwick for picks 31 + 47 to Essendon
Rookie Elevation Dean Brogan 2000 rookie draft ie end 1999 elevated in 2001 season
Rookie Elevation Ben Hollands 2001 rookie draft ie end 2000 elevated in 2001 season
Rookie Elevation Chris Hall 2001 rookie draft ie end 2000 elevated in 2001 season
Geelong's drafting
8 Bartel
17 Kelly from a trade with Melbourne for Bizzell
23 Charlie Gardner They received this pick for trade of Justin Murphy to Carlton. Gardnier was traded in 2007 to St K for a 6th round pick not used by Geelong
24 Steve Johnson
40 Gary Ablett - Father-Son pick
41 Henry Playfair received the pick from Melbourne, part of Bizzell trade. Traded to Sydney in 2007 for pick # 44.
55 Traded this to Melbourne for Brett Grigic
69 Mathew McCarthy
81 David Johnson
Apart from Grigic and McCarthy all the other players played at least 50 games for Geelong, Bartel, Kelly, S Johnson and Ablett played in the flag and David Johnson was close to making the GF side.
Things in football indeed change very quickly, as has been highlighted in these 3 threads.
Mead's thread in January 2005
Why every top 4 prediction is wrong.
Dan 26's thread about top 4 in October 2006 and re-proved in Sept 2007 and 2008
Since '94, a side from outside the 8 has made the top 4 every year. Who's next?
And Dan 26's thread about top 4 and bottom 4 in March 2007.
Ladder prediction thread with a difference. You must adhere to the following rules;
I updated the last thread at this post for the last 2 seasons:
Ladder prediction thread with a difference. You must adhere to the following rules:
I am confident that we could be the side or one of the sides that missed the finals in 2008 and slots into the top 4 next year. I predicted Geelong and us in 2007 and missed the Kangaroos, and I predicted St Kilda and missed the Bulldogs this year. I play a tip the wins comp at the start of every year with about 15 mates. Won the $150 last year but tipped too many wins for Port and WCE this year and not enough for the Bulldogs and missed the $160 prize this year.
Why does this happen?
The reason it happens is simple, I think. Finish bottom 8 and you have an extra 4 to 6 weeks to do a fuller preseason, you book blokes in early for an operation so that they get a full pre season or close to a full pre season. Usually these are your key players. Finals sides get injuries to players, sometimes long term ones whilst the non finalists are resting. The key to having a good year is that most of your players do a full pre season and have the miles in their legs to last the year.
Some teams who have a stuff up year after a couple of good years get pissed off and finally get it together. Case in point is Geelong. 2004 finished 4th but could have made a GF couldn't quiet get over Brisbane in the PF, 2005 they lost the unloseable semi final to Sydney, 2006 the wheels fell off, a complete review, some blokes in for early surgery and everybody does a full pre season and commit to achieve their full potential.
If you look at the teams that made a big jump, usually the year before or 2 years before were good ones.
Also players who have missed most of a season come back from long term injuries and make a difference, especially senior mid fields or KPPs. Luck with injuries is also another reason this happens.
The opposite happens with top 8 sides. They might scrape into the finals but lose good players over the finals of preseason. Shorter pre seasons stuff up players form the following year. Sometimes it's as simple as they lose their edge mentally, either losing a few close games or the general crap that sometimes surrounds footy clubs.
If we weren't 8-1 in 2007, and 0-8 in 2008, in games involving 18 pt margins or less and were closer to 5-4 and 4-4 we may well have finished 6th in 2007 and maybe 4th in 2008. So we aren't that far away from top 4, the question is how far are we really away from no.1? In 2000 did it look 2 to 4 years away?
However it is still great drafting and trading that sets a 5 to 7 year process in play to win a flag. Look at Geelong, their premiership and maybe dynasty was set up with drafting between 1999 and 2002. Comparing last years GF sides
Comparing us to Geelong, people have to remember that they have bigger bodies because they have been in the system longer. Look at how the majority of their group came thru the draft system:
1999 Corey, Chapman, Ling, Enright, traded for Mooney
2000 Hunt
2001 Bartel, Kelly, Steve Johnson, Ablett, David Johnson the so called super draft
2002 Mackie, Lonergan, Rooke was a rookie elevation.
And in that same period we drafted:
1999 no one left
2000 Shaun, Kane, Dom
2001 White, Brogan rookie elevation the so called super draft
2002 Salopek, Ebert
For older players it was pretty equal at last years GF.
We had Tredders, Peter, Wilbur and Ladey from our original 96 squad + Chad in 97 and Toby in 98. They had King and Milburn from 95, Scarlett 97, Harley and Wojinski in 98.
So to win next year or 2010, you have to see what the 2004, 05, 06 in particular, and the 07 kids do to become key players.
So drafting a few years earlier is important but a year or too before success can also be important. However Joel Selwood is a good case in point that if a kid bulks up quicker under their system and when you are the 5th best mid fielder you don't get as much attention and can devlop quicker as well.
2001 was the first so called super draft. Compare our draft trading to Geelong to see how along with their 99 draft they built a premiership around the 2001 kids.
2001
15 Barry Brooks
31 Traded to Essendon for Hardwick, they draft Renyolds
47 Traded to Essendon for Hardwick, they draft Welsh
62 Damon White
76 Jared Poulton was delisted and redrafted in the same year. (played 55/88 after redraft)
Trade Hardwick for picks 31 + 47 to Essendon
Rookie Elevation Dean Brogan 2000 rookie draft ie end 1999 elevated in 2001 season
Rookie Elevation Ben Hollands 2001 rookie draft ie end 2000 elevated in 2001 season
Rookie Elevation Chris Hall 2001 rookie draft ie end 2000 elevated in 2001 season
Geelong's drafting
8 Bartel
17 Kelly from a trade with Melbourne for Bizzell
23 Charlie Gardner They received this pick for trade of Justin Murphy to Carlton. Gardnier was traded in 2007 to St K for a 6th round pick not used by Geelong
24 Steve Johnson
40 Gary Ablett - Father-Son pick
41 Henry Playfair received the pick from Melbourne, part of Bizzell trade. Traded to Sydney in 2007 for pick # 44.
55 Traded this to Melbourne for Brett Grigic
69 Mathew McCarthy
81 David Johnson
Apart from Grigic and McCarthy all the other players played at least 50 games for Geelong, Bartel, Kelly, S Johnson and Ablett played in the flag and David Johnson was close to making the GF side.
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) with chad still in the middle and up forward or a combination of both.
