Analysis Making the Top 4 and building to a flag. 4TH is IRRELEVANT, MAKE IT TOP 3

[PatientMental]

Gee, we don’t feature at all prominently when they go through the cold, hard facts of how draftees have turned out. We have a lot of potentially good pick ups, but in terms of players who dominate their age-matched peers, relatively few over a ten year period. Wines and Houston basically. Very few steals like some of the other clubs also.

Sounds like hinkley can't develop anyone past an exciting career start.

 

[Andre]

Sounds like hinkley can't develop anyone past an exciting career start.

Which in large part is finished growing along with putting on some muscle and gaining the ability to run out AFL games anyway.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Update post #648
.........

And since 1995 at least one team from the top 8 has dropped out to finish in the BOTTOM FOUR every year until GC and GWS were introduce (see post #648 for full list). First 4 years with new teams there was no example of this. Since then its been 4 out of 6 years.

2016: - Freo minor premiers and 3rd in 2015 to 16th
2017: - North 8th in 2016 to 15th
2018: - None - Port 5th in 2017 to 10th was biggest drop
2019: - Melbourne 5th but made a PF in 2018 but 17th in 2019, Syd 6th 2018 15th 2019
2020: - None GWS 6th but make GF in 2019 end up 10th in 2020 was biggest drop
2021: - Collingwood 8th but made a SF in 2020 but 17th in 2021

We are on track to be the top 8 side to go to the bottom 4 along with Essendon.

Post 2007 GF to be 13th of 16 sides is 4th bottom.
2008 Port 7-15
2009 North 7-1-14 (Port 9-13 10th)
2010 Bris 7-15 (Port 10-12 10th)

Since 2015, once the expansion sides at least 4 full season to be 15th of 18 sides is 4th bottom

2015 Ess 6-16
2016 GC 6-16
2017 NM 6-16
2018 Bris 5-17
2019 Syd 8-14
2020 Haw 5-12 Only 17 game season
2021 Adel 7-15

Assuming Charlie and Allir don't return until Rd 11, we probably will be in the 7-15 range.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

We avoided the Top 8 to bottom 4 slide, that looked on the cards at 0-5.

GWS completed that trend, 7th to 16th with 6 wins. 15th side Essendon had 7 wins.

Collingwood continued the trend of outside the 8th to next year making the Top 4.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

History shows again finishing 4th is irrelevant to winning a flag. It might have only been a 1 pt loss by Collingwood but they aren't playing in a GF.

Don't talk about finishing Top 4, talk about finishing Top 3.

If you finish 4th you have to try and beat 1st and then will face 2nd or 3rd in a PF if you dont win the QF to make a GF. That's a tough road.

4th has made the GF - since this finals system started and full time professional footy in 2000 started - 3 times,2002, 2006 and 2020.

5th has made it once, 6th once and 7th once.

1st, 2nd and 3rd have won 21 of the 22 flags since 2000. It will now be 22 out of 23 by next Saturday night.

 

[GremioPower]

We avoided the Top 8 to bottom 4 slide.

GWS completed that trend 7th to 16th with 6 wins. 15th side Essendon had 7 wins.

Collingwood continued the

Your post is broken.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

If you finish 4th you have to beat 4th and then 2nd or 3rd to make a GF. That's a tough road.

At least you don't have to play 1st.


On SM-G975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[GremioPower]

At least you don't have to play 1st.


On SM-G975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

And you get the right to play against yourself!

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Finish Top 3 and you have a

22/23 = 96% chance of winning a flag

17/23 = 74% chance of making a GF

 

[Capital Power]

Nah, top of the bottom eight is where it's at. We've sewn that up in recent non-covid seasons.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Since the current finals system started in 2000:

2000-2015 the losing 1v4 and 2v3 QF teams have produced a 27 wins and 5 losses record in the SFs. Out in straight sets were;

2001 Port (3rd)
2007 WCE (3rd)
2014 Geelong (3rd) and Freo (4th)
2015 Sydney (4th)

Since the pre finals bye was introduced in 2016, 2016-2023 seasons its 9-7

2016 Hawthorn (3rd)
2018 Hawthorn (4th)
2019 Brisbane (2nd)
2021 Brisbane (4th)
2022 Melbourne (2nd)
2023 Melbourne (4th) and Port (3rd)

So because Ross Lyon makes 13 changes in the final round in 2015, and a reactionary AFL admin, bottom half of the 8 get a leg up.

 

[TeeKray]

Since the current finals system started in 2000:

2000-2015 the losing 1v4 and 2v3 QF teams have produced a 27 wins and 5 losses record in the SFs. Out in straight sets were;

2001 Port (3rd)
2007 WCE (3rd)
2014 Geelong (3rd) and Freo (4th)
2015 Sydney (4th)

Since the pre finals bye was introduced in 2016, 2016-2023 seasons its 9-7

2016 Hawthorn (3rd)
2018 Hawthorn (4th)
2019 Brisbane (2nd)
2021 Brisbane (4th)
2022 Melbourne (2nd)
2023 Melbourne (4th) and Port (3rd)

So because Ross Lyon makes 13 changes in the final round in 2015, and a reactionary AFL admin, bottom half of the 8 get a leg up.

If you look more closely, 3 of those 5 in the 2000-2015 era came in 2014-2015. So it was just 2 from 2000-2013 (that is staggering when you think about the fact that we've had 2 this year alone).

I've got a different theory. 2 more teams means talent spread more thinly means the gap between teams isn't what it once was. You still get the odd dominant team or the odd struggler but the difference between 3rd and 7th just isn't what it once was.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

In post #674 May last year, I linked Peter Blucher's analysis in November 2021 of the previous 10 drafts 2011-2020 where he rates the top few picks every year for the following categories as at end of 2023 season;
Games played, possessions, brownlow votes, All Australian, premiership players, and top 3 placings in club B&F's.
He also talks about goal kickers this year.

Its sort of what I started doing for each club who wins a flag in the early days of this thread, but he does it league wide.

Here is his analysis with Whateley a few days ago for drafts starting with 2022 draft going back to the 2013 draft.

It ties in a bit with this article on afl.com.au website the other day with each top 10 pick taken by each side since 2013 draft. Port's only one in the top 10 drafts is Rozee at 5 in 2018. Blucher's analysis is way more deeper.

Your club's top-10 picks: Where are they now?

We take a closer look at how your club has fared with its top-10 draft picks in the past decade

www.afl.com.au

This is 33 minutes long.

 

[Schulzenfest]

Fun fact: Ken Hinkley has failed to make a Grand Final from all three of 1st, 2nd and 3rd spots on the ladder.

 

[TazD]

Fun fact: Ken Hinkley has failed to make a Grand Final from all three of 1st, 2nd and 3rd spots on the ladder.

Carn m8, he just doesn't have the cattle.

 

[TeeKray]

Fun fact: Ken Hinkley has failed to make a Grand Final from all three of 1st, 2nd and 3rd spots on the ladder.

I doubt there would be a coach in history who has done this. Just another 'achievement'. Guy is a loser with a capital L.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Yeah it all feels fairly irrelevant to me. We will lose from anywhere, from any position, because we have it it drilled in to us for years now that "we're a good team, not a great team" that we can guarantee "we would have lost by a lot more" if we used depth players and that the opposing team* is an unconquerable hurdle. Loser culture top to bottom that is frozen by the fear of going all in and not winning so we don't even try and instead spend our time looking for yet another excuse for yet another failed season.

(*changes each year based on who has gone past us)

Like everything else, until we get a better coach and a culture shift, ladder position doesn't make an ounce of difference to this club.

 

[Del165198]

Yeah it all feels fairly irrelevant to me. We will lose from anywhere, from any position, because we have it it drilled in to us for years now that "we're a good team, not a great team" that we can guarantee "we would have lost by a lot more" if we used depth players and that the opposing team* is an unconquerable hurdle. Loser culture top to bottom that is frozen by the fear of going all in and not winning so we don't even try and instead spend our time looking for yet another excuse for yet another failed season.

(*changes each year based on who has gone past us)

Like everything else, until we get a better coach and a culture shift, ladder position doesn't make an ounce of difference to this club.

Daddy loser starts making excuses well before a campaign even begins because he's such a ****ing loser. And we back him in for yet another 2 years lol

 

[Duck Farmer]

"I reckon finals are a little bit scary" tells you everything you need to know.

 

[tribey]

"we would have lost by a lot more" if we used depth players

That quote was wild. And he’s still here with any number of sycophants dying on his hill.

 

[Schulzenfest]

I doubt there would be a coach in history who has done this. Just another 'achievement'. Guy is a loser with a capital L.

If we can finish 4th and miss the Grand Final this year, Ken can make it the full top 5.

 

[Duck Farmer]

If we can finish 4th and miss the Grand Final this year, Ken can make it the full top 5.

Koch: "Ken's demonstrated ability to get us once again into the Top 4 made the decision to move early on locking in his contract extension a no brainer."

 

[Steve Dore]

Thread title needs to be "Making the top eight and guaranteeing another contract extension."

That's what really matters at the Kenny Hinkley Football Club.

 

[Janus]

Since 1997:

1997 - Adelaide - 1st for defence, 2nd for attack
1998 - Adelaide - 1st for defence, 5th for attack
1999 - North Melbourne - 9th for defence, 1st for attack
2000 - Essendon - 1st for defence, 1st for attack
2002 - Brisbane - 2nd for defence, 1st for attack
2003 - Brisbane - 4th for defence, 1st for attack
2004 - Port Adelaide - 4th for defence, 4th for attack
2005 - Sydney - 1st for defence, 14th for attack
2006 - West Coast - 4th for defence, 4th for attack
2007 - Geelong - 1st for defence, 1st for attack
2008 - Hawthorn - 3rd for defence, 3rd for attack
2009 - Geelong - 4th for defence, 2nd for attack
2010 - Collingwood - 1st for defence, 2nd for attack
2011 - Geelong - 2nd for defence, 2nd for attack
2012 - Sydney - 1st for defence, 4th for attack
2013 - Hawthorn - 5th for defence, 1st for attack (Port - 11th for defence, 9th for attack)
2014 - Hawthorn - 5th for defence, 1st for attack (Port - 2nd for defence, 2nd for attack)
2015 - Hawthorn - 1st for defence, 1st for attack (Port - 10th for defence, 7th for attack)
2016 - Western Bulldogs - 3rd for defence, 12th for attack (Port - 9th for defence, 7th for attack)
2017 - Richmond - 3rd for defence, 7th for attack (Port - 2nd for defence, 2nd for attack)*
2018 - West Coast - 5th for defence, 5th for attack (Port - 4th for defence, 13th for attack)
2019 - Richmond - 5th for defence, 6th for attack (Port - 8th for defence, 8th for attack)
2020 - Richmond - 2nd for defence, 5th for attack (Port - 1st for defence, 2nd for attack)
2021 - Melbourne - 1st for defence, 5th for attack (Port - 3rd for defence, 6th for attack)
2022 - Geelong - 3rd for defence, 3rd for attack (Port - 5th for defence, 10th for attack)
2023 - Collingwood - 3rd for defence, 4th for attack (Port - 13th for defence, 2nd for attack)

*Team that produced this result was not the team that was taken into finals

You either need to be the best on the competition at either attack or defence, or pretty ****ing good at both (top 4), to win a flag. Of course there are outliers to this but you can see why we stacked our defence bringing in Ratugolea and Zerk-Thatcher. The 13th best defence isn’t going to cut it.

 

[dirty2]

Since 1997:

1997 - Adelaide - 1st for defence, 2nd for attack
1998 - Adelaide - 1st for defence, 5th for attack
1999 - North Melbourne - 9th for defence, 1st for attack
2000 - Essendon - 1st for defence, 1st for attack
2002 - Brisbane - 2nd for defence, 1st for attack
2003 - Brisbane - 4th for defence, 1st for attack
2004 - Port Adelaide - 4th for defence, 4th for attack
2005 - Sydney - 1st for defence, 14th for attack
2006 - West Coast - 4th for defence, 4th for attack
2007 - Geelong - 1st for defence, 1st for attack
2008 - Hawthorn - 3rd for defence, 3rd for attack
2009 - Geelong - 4th for defence, 2nd for attack
2010 - Collingwood - 1st for defence, 2nd for attack
2011 - Geelong - 2nd for defence, 2nd for attack
2012 - Sydney - 1st for defence, 4th for attack
2013 - Hawthorn - 5th for defence, 1st for attack (Port - 11th for defence, 9th for attack)
2014 - Hawthorn - 5th for defence, 1st for attack (Port - 2nd for defence, 2nd for attack)
2015 - Hawthorn - 1st for defence, 1st for attack (Port - 10th for defence, 7th for attack)
2016 - Western Bulldogs - 3rd for defence, 12th for attack (Port - 9th for defence, 7th for attack)
2017 - Richmond - 3rd for defence, 7th for attack (Port - 2nd for defence, 2nd for attack)*
2018 - West Coast - 5th for defence, 5th for attack (Port - 4th for defence, 13th for attack)
2019 - Richmond - 5th for defence, 6th for attack (Port - 8th for defence, 8th for attack)
2020 - Richmond - 2nd for defence, 5th for attack (Port - 1st for defence, 2nd for attack)
2021 - Melbourne - 1st for defence, 5th for attack (Port - 3rd for defence, 6th for attack)
2022 - Geelong - 3rd for defence, 3rd for attack (Port - 5th for defence, 10th for attack)
2023 - Collingwood - 3rd for defence, 4th for attack (Port - 13th for defence, 2nd for attack)

*Team that produced this result was not the team that was taken into finals

You either need to be the best on the competition at either attack or defence, or pretty ******* good at both (top 4), to win a flag. Of course there are outliers to this but you can see why we stacked our defence bringing in Ratugolea and Zerk-Thatcher. The 13th best defence isn’t going to cut it.

Looking at that... My conclusion is we should of had a premiership or 2 during that time.