But, but injuriesLooking at that... My conclusion is we should of had a premiership or 2 during that time.
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Analysis Making the Top 4 and building to a flag. 4TH is IRRELEVANT, MAKE IT TOP 3
- Thread starter RussellEbertHandball
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2020 - Richmond - 2nd for defence, 5th for attack (Port - 1st for defence, 2nd for attack)
lol this club
You could say we've blasted the wall with piss
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Looking at that... My conclusion is we should of had a premiership or 2 during that time.
Looking at that... My conclusion is we should of had a premiership or 2 during that time.
Iād go as far as: we should at least have won ONE effing more PF in that time. FFS. FFS.
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GremioPower
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We have had talent enough, but we always lacked the mindset.
Yep you could see it in the Aussie cricket side.
Nowhere near a form side going in. Maxwell concused mid-tournament. Marsh goes back to Australia mid-tournament. Unsettled.
Play India and South Africa in two ODI series before the World Cup starts. Lose both series.
Play India and South Africa in the first two games of the actual tournament. Lose both games and sit as even odds to even make the top 4.
Come up against the exact same two teams in the semi-final and final, the final against a side that was undefeated in the tournament, with an unplayable bowling line up, a pitch prepared specifically for the Indians to win, and 130,000 screaming fans in a cauldron wanting to see us lose.
Every single statistical analysis would have us losing that final. You could make every excuse in the book if you wanted to.
But we don't make excuses. Because we're a team of champions with a winning mindset. We just put ourselves in the best position to win and get it done. Mindset. Mindset. Mindset.
If Port Adelaide was in that tournament we would have been thrashed by RSA then gloated about how we'd proved people wrong by making it to the top 4 which was our plan from the start or some nonsense.
There will always be a GWS. There will always be a Collingwood. There will always be a side willing to do what it takes no matter what the stats say. And there will always be Ken Hinkley's Southern Power, happy to capitulate to those teams and be happy just to be there.
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Can we get local star Travis Head in to discuss performance under pressure?
Our team needs to drink some cement. Was it two or three years ago he didnāt even get given a CA contract!
Our team needs to drink some cement. Was it two or three years ago he didnāt even get given a CA contract!
TeeKray
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The Australian cricket team has a win at all costs mindset. They copped heat over Sandpaper Gate but it showed their desire to win at all costs. Could you ever imagine anyone at Port caring enough to push the boundaries on anything. They're just happy to be there and happy to be getting paid to participate. They aren't serious about winning.
Janus
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The two times we have been in premiership caliber form (2014 and 2020) we went up against the reigning premier who went on to win the flag, both games lost by a kick. One thing premiership teams have is an AA defender or two (either nominated that year or in previous years) that made their defence better than good - something we didnāt have in 2014 and that we had to change around in 2020 in the PF due to Burton getting injured in the second quarter:
1997 - Adelaide - Ben Hart
1998 - Adelaide - Ben Hart, Nigel Smart
1999 - North Melbourne - Glen Archer, David King, Byron Pickett
2000 - Essendon - Damien Hardwick, Dustin Fletcher
2001 - Brisbane - Justin Leppitsch
2002 - Brisbane - Justin Leppitsch
2003 - Brisbane - Justin Leppitsch, Nigel Lappin
2004 - Port Adelaide - Chad Cornes, Gavin Wanganeen
2005 - Sydney - Leo Barry
2006 - West Coast - Darren Glass
2007 - Geelong - Matthew Scarlett, Darren Milburn, Matthew Egan
2008 - Hawthorn - Luke Hodge
2009 - Geelong - Corey Enright, Matthew Scarlett, Darren Milburn
2010 - Collingwood - Nick Maxwell, Heritier Lumumba
2011 - Geelong - Matthew Scarlett, Corey Enright
2012 - Sydney - Ted Richards
2013 - Hawthorn - Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge (remember that Hawthorn only had the 5th best defence)
2014 - Hawthorn - Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge, Jordan Lewis (again, only the fifth best defence)
2015 - Hawthorn - Josh Gibson, Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge, Jordan Lewis (this year Hawthorn had the best defence)
2016 - Western Bulldogs - Easton Wood, Robert Murphy* (was injured during season but would have set training standards during pre-season)
2017 - Richmond - Alex Rance
2018 - West Coast- Jeremy McGovern
2019 - Richmond - Dylan Grimes, Bachar Houli
2020 - Richmond - Dylan Grimes, Bachar Houli (Port - Byrne-Jones)
2021 - Melbourne - Jake Lever, Steven May (Port - Aliir)
2022 - Geelong - Tom Stewart
2023 - Collingwood - Darcy Moore, Brayden Maynard (Port - Houston)
If we can improve our defence with the addition of Ratugolea and Zerk-Thatcher to top four in the comp, which should be a realistic goal when you consider that we were top two in 2020 when Aliir was able to screen off thanks to Jonas and Clurey, then we will meet this criteria with Aliir and Houston.
How much of last year's 10th placed defensive performance was off the back of Jonas completely falling off a cliff and Aliir having to do more work to support an undersized defensive structure? Quite a bit, I would say. And further to that - how much of our midfield not winning the clearances they should be was a result of having to fold back and assist that very same defence instead of pressuring the ball carrier to create intercept opportunities for our defenders like they should have been?
In conclusion - if we had won in 2014 or 2020, it would have been a Hawthorn 2008 or Sydney 2012 type performance. Those are pretty rare events and should not be expected by fans, let alone say that we bottled our chances.
1997 - Adelaide - Ben Hart
1998 - Adelaide - Ben Hart, Nigel Smart
1999 - North Melbourne - Glen Archer, David King, Byron Pickett
2000 - Essendon - Damien Hardwick, Dustin Fletcher
2001 - Brisbane - Justin Leppitsch
2002 - Brisbane - Justin Leppitsch
2003 - Brisbane - Justin Leppitsch, Nigel Lappin
2004 - Port Adelaide - Chad Cornes, Gavin Wanganeen
2005 - Sydney - Leo Barry
2006 - West Coast - Darren Glass
2007 - Geelong - Matthew Scarlett, Darren Milburn, Matthew Egan
2008 - Hawthorn - Luke Hodge
2009 - Geelong - Corey Enright, Matthew Scarlett, Darren Milburn
2010 - Collingwood - Nick Maxwell, Heritier Lumumba
2011 - Geelong - Matthew Scarlett, Corey Enright
2012 - Sydney - Ted Richards
2013 - Hawthorn - Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge (remember that Hawthorn only had the 5th best defence)
2014 - Hawthorn - Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge, Jordan Lewis (again, only the fifth best defence)
2015 - Hawthorn - Josh Gibson, Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge, Jordan Lewis (this year Hawthorn had the best defence)
2016 - Western Bulldogs - Easton Wood, Robert Murphy* (was injured during season but would have set training standards during pre-season)
2017 - Richmond - Alex Rance
2018 - West Coast- Jeremy McGovern
2019 - Richmond - Dylan Grimes, Bachar Houli
2020 - Richmond - Dylan Grimes, Bachar Houli (Port - Byrne-Jones)
2021 - Melbourne - Jake Lever, Steven May (Port - Aliir)
2022 - Geelong - Tom Stewart
2023 - Collingwood - Darcy Moore, Brayden Maynard (Port - Houston)
If we can improve our defence with the addition of Ratugolea and Zerk-Thatcher to top four in the comp, which should be a realistic goal when you consider that we were top two in 2020 when Aliir was able to screen off thanks to Jonas and Clurey, then we will meet this criteria with Aliir and Houston.
How much of last year's 10th placed defensive performance was off the back of Jonas completely falling off a cliff and Aliir having to do more work to support an undersized defensive structure? Quite a bit, I would say. And further to that - how much of our midfield not winning the clearances they should be was a result of having to fold back and assist that very same defence instead of pressuring the ball carrier to create intercept opportunities for our defenders like they should have been?
In conclusion - if we had won in 2014 or 2020, it would have been a Hawthorn 2008 or Sydney 2012 type performance. Those are pretty rare events and should not be expected by fans, let alone say that we bottled our chances.
We were a premiership calibre team in 2004 too but the difference was the most important parts - culture and coaching.
tribey
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Also Janus: āour list was overrated garbageā
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And shame.
We knew we had failed in the two previous seasons. We werenāt willing to fail again.
Janus
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I've never said it was garbage. What I've said was that it probably reached the limits of what it could achieve when they made a prelim, as seen by the fact that every premiership side has a number of AA defenders in them (or at least one key defender/third tall) and we had none in 2014 and one half back flanker in 2020 (Byrne-Jones).
You look at those two years and say that we had the players to win a flag and it was the system that was the problem. But if the players were so good, you'd think more than one of them would have made the AA team based on their individual performances...yet they didn't.
I say it was the system that created that 2nd rated defence, and now that we've got key defenders that can intercept and support Aliir, we've also got the players as well.
If it doesn't work, you can criticise me all you want cause more intercept defenders is exactly what I've been banging on about for probably five years now.
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Zerk-Thatcher is a worse player than McKenzie has been up to this point and Ratugolea is a worse player than Jonas was until recently.
Next excuse.
Next excuse.
Janus
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Not as intercept defenders they aren't.
RussellEbertHandball
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- #719
After Travis Head got out I was thinking basically the same thing and wrote in the cricket thread just after it ended, that we need our Club Ambassador to instil some confidence and positive mindset into the Port players.
This morning I wrote Oz and cricket success is a bit like the All Blacks and rugby success. Its mindset. I don't know how many times I have watched the Alll Blacks be behind all the game or nearly all the game and they come over the top in the last 10 minutes and win the test match. The only team that seems able enough to stop them often enough is South Africa.
Port have lost their mental comparative advantage they used to have in the SANFL comp, winning even when they weren't the best side on paper. They don't believe they can win the big finals in the AFL. The coach isn't a winner and doesn't have the right mindset to change things.
I feel like once Hinkley is finally gone you're gonna make a really great post explaining how poor he was statistically and why we can win the flag now that our major deficiency is resolved. I look forward to it.
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Aussie cricket has been labelled toxic, elitist, arrogant and unsportsmanlike.
All names given to them by other teams that lost.
Winners win, and Hinkley, well I doubt he even wins at the dishlickers.
All names given to them by other teams that lost.
Winners win, and Hinkley, well I doubt he even wins at the dishlickers.
RussellEbertHandball
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From the Matter of Stats guys. Long term continuous top 4 success is rare in the AFL since full time professional era started in 2000.
So Essendon were the only 2000 side to still be top 4 in 2001, then none of the 2000 class made it from 2002 to 2005.
Port and Brisbane were the 2001 sides to still be top 4 in 2002, 2003, 2004, then none of the 2001 class made it to 2005 and 2006.
Port Brisbane and Collingwood were the 2002 sides to be still top 4 in 2003, Port and Brisbane in 2004, Adelaide in 2005 and 2006 and Port in 2007.
The 2019 top 4 sides were Geelong, Brisbane, Richmond and Collingwood
2020 Geelong, Brisbane, Richmond stayed in the top 4
2021 Geelong and Brisbane stayed in the top 4
2022 Geelong and Collingwood stayed in the top 4
2023 Brisbane and Collingwood stayed in the top 4
2024 Geelong will be in the top 4 and Collingwood has a small chance.
Do this exercise for all the years this century, and love them or hate them, you see Geelong under Mark Thompson and then Chris Scott stay in the top 4 over the next 5 seasons, more than anyone else.
Rather than post the tweet from a couple of sites which would produced the table below twice, but smaller, here are their comments From 10 Feb 2024.
AFL Live Ladder
@AflLadder
This is insane. If you made the top 4 four years ago, you are barely more likely to make the top 4 than a team that didn't. If it was five years, you are LESS likely than the average team!
https://twitter.com/MatterOfStats
Tony Corke
@MatterOfStats
CORRECTED (thanks to @luke01_v)
So Essendon were the only 2000 side to still be top 4 in 2001, then none of the 2000 class made it from 2002 to 2005.
Port and Brisbane were the 2001 sides to still be top 4 in 2002, 2003, 2004, then none of the 2001 class made it to 2005 and 2006.
Port Brisbane and Collingwood were the 2002 sides to be still top 4 in 2003, Port and Brisbane in 2004, Adelaide in 2005 and 2006 and Port in 2007.
The 2019 top 4 sides were Geelong, Brisbane, Richmond and Collingwood
2020 Geelong, Brisbane, Richmond stayed in the top 4
2021 Geelong and Brisbane stayed in the top 4
2022 Geelong and Collingwood stayed in the top 4
2023 Brisbane and Collingwood stayed in the top 4
2024 Geelong will be in the top 4 and Collingwood has a small chance.
Do this exercise for all the years this century, and love them or hate them, you see Geelong under Mark Thompson and then Chris Scott stay in the top 4 over the next 5 seasons, more than anyone else.
Rather than post the tweet from a couple of sites which would produced the table below twice, but smaller, here are their comments From 10 Feb 2024.
AFL Live Ladder
@AflLadder
This is insane. If you made the top 4 four years ago, you are barely more likely to make the top 4 than a team that didn't. If it was five years, you are LESS likely than the average team!
https://twitter.com/MatterOfStats
Tony Corke
@MatterOfStats
CORRECTED (thanks to @luke01_v)
RussellEbertHandball
Flick pass expert
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- #723
Lets see if the media keep pushing their anyone can win the flag this year line, heavily for the full finals series, and then when it doesn't happen, forget all about it.
To me, 2024 is more like 1993 than 2016.
In 1993 there were 15 teams and 12 of them could beat each other. It was only a 20 games season and the 12th team won 10 out of their 20 games. Brisbane 4 wins 13th, Richmond 4 wins 14th and Sydney 1 win 15th, were hopeless and basically only beat each other, and with the odd shock win.
There was no real stand out dominate side. Essendon 1st and Carlton 2nd, both had 13 wins 1 draw as and 6 losses, they drew their game earlier in the season, were top of the ladder, and 12th placed St Kilda had 10 wins and 94.2%.
Only one side had 120+%, 3rd placed North who had 13 wins. Also the final position of the ladder wasn't known until the Sunday twilight, final game of the minor round, when Adelaide v Collingwood was played and the crows won.
In 2016 there were 7 teams that had a big gap on everyone else. After 21 games, 4 teams had 16 wins Sydney, Adelaide, Geelong and Hawthorn, and 3 sides on 15 wins, GWS, WCE and the Bulldogs. North had won 12 games and had 15% more than St Kilda, who had won 11 games, and the saints needed an absolute miracle to make up the approx 250 point difference to make the finals. See
It was also the first year sides had to deal with the pre finals bye.
This year 14th placed Melbourne won 11 of their 23 games and had a percentage of 98.5%. Even Adelaide had a percentage of 99.1% from their 8 wins and 1 draw after losing 4 games by a kick and 6 in total by 2 kicks. And like 1993, there were 3 cellar dwellers. who basically beat each other and had the odd shock win.
23 of 24 premiers since the 2000 season (the first year the current finals system was introduced, and the first season where 100% of each clubs' list had full time professional footballers), have finished in the top 3 at end of the minor round.
Here is a cut and paste from and an SEN article from October 2022, about ladder positions and grand finalists. They worked out like I did a few years before them, that finishing 4th is almost irrelevant. Its finishing Top 3 that counts.
www.sen.com.au
Not one team who has finished the regular season in fourth spot has gone on to win the flag.
They list who played the Preliminary Final first of the two PFs.
Except for 2 occasions, the 1st Preliminary Final ie the winner of 1v4 QF, played the first of the two PFs on a Friday night to get the extra days rest for the GF.
The exceptions have been 2016 and 2019 when for the 2nd Preliminary Final was played on the Friday night and the 1st Preliminary Final was played Saturday.
In 2016 Sydney finished 1st but lost to GWS in the 1v4 QF and played the 2nd PF v Geelong on Friday night so they got the extra days rest for the 2016 GF. In 2019 Geelong finished 1st but lost their QF and they played their PF on the Friday night, and would have got the extra days rest if they won the PF, as they were minor premiers.
This scheduling rule changed at some point between 2006 and 2016, as the previous two times the minor premier lost their home 1v4 QF, was 2005 Adelaide and 2006 West Coast, and they played their away PF after winning their SFs, on the Saturday and not the Friday night.
Its just another facet why its hard to win a GF if you don't finish top 3.
1 v 2.... 3-5
2001 - Essendon v Brisbane - 1 v 2
2004 - Port Adelaide v Brisbane - 1 v 2
2007 - Geelong v Port Adelaide - 1 v 2
2008 - Geelong v Hawthorn - 1 v 2
2009 - St Kilda v Geelong - 1 v 2
2011 - Collingwood v Geelong - 1 v 2
2014 - Sydney v Hawthorn - 1 v 2
2024 - Collingwood v Brisbane - 1 v 2
1 v 3.... 4-2
2000 - Essendon v Melbourne - 1 v 3
2010 - Collingwood v St Kilda - 1 v 3
2012 - Hawthorn v Sydney - 1 v 3
2013 - Hawthorn v Fremantle - 1 v 3
2017 - Adelaide v Richmond - 1 v 3
2022 - Geelong v Sydney - 1 v 3
1 v 4.... 1-0
2006 - Sydney v West Coast - 4 v 1
1 v 5.... 1-0
2021 - Melbourne v Western Bulldogs - 1 v 5
1 v 7.... 0-1
2016 - Sydney v Western Bulldogs - 1 v 7
2 v 3.... 1-3
2003 - Brisbane v Collingwood - 3 v 2
2005 - Sydney v West Coast - 3 v 2
2015 - Hawthorn v West Coast - 3 v 2
2018 - West Coast v Collingwood - 2 v 3
2 v 4 .... 1-0
2002 - Collingwood v Brisbane - 4 v 2
3 v 4.... 1-0
2020 - Richmond v Geelong - 3 v 4
3 v 6.... 1-0
2019 - Richmond v GWS - 3 v 6
So finishing outside the top 3 its been 1/24 flags and 6/24 chance of making a GF.
Of those 6 times, 3 have finished 4th and 3 lower than 4th. So 42 of 48 GF slots have gone to sides finishing in the Top 3.
But since 2016 when the finals bye was introduced, and Western Bulldogs took full advantage of this new change, more sides from outside the top 4 have made the GF, up to then only 2 had, in 2002 and 2006, and more sides are going out in straight sets.
48 Grand finalists since 2000 - 37 have won their QF and PF, 11 have won their EF, SF and PF. This can be split in to 2 periods.
2000-2015
32 QFs - 28 QF winners made the GF. 4 that missed out, lost to following SF winners;
2003 Sydney 4th beat Port 1st in QF and then lost home PF to triple heavy weight champion Brisbane (3rd) who won flag
2005 St Kilda 4th beat Adelaide 1st in QF and then lost home PF to Sydney(3rd) who then won the flag
2006 Adelaide 2nd beat Fremantle 3rd in QF then lost home PF to WCE (1st) who then won the flag
2015 Fremantle 1st beat Sydney 4th in QF then lost home PF to triple heavy weight champion Hawks (3rd) who won flag
In this period, 2 dynasty teams went against the grain and in 2005-06 Sydney and WCE had that run of close games against each other, and the side that lost their QF battles, then won the GF by the same margin
2016-2023
16 QFs - 9 QF winners made the GF. 7 that missed out, lost to following SF winners;
2016 GWS 4th beat Syd 1st, lost home PF to Bulldogs 7th who then won the flag
2016 Gee 2nd beat Haw 2nd, lost home PF to Sydney 1st
2018 Rich 1st beat Haw 4th, lost MCG PF to Collingwood 3rd
2019 Coll 4th beat Gee 1st, lost home PF to GWS 6th
2020 Port 1st beat Gee 4th lost home PF to Rich 3rd triple heavy weight champion who won the flag
2020 Bris 2nd beat Rich 3rd lost home PF to Gee 4th
2021 Port 2nd beat Gee 3rd lost home PF to Bulldogs 5th
That is reflected somewhat in who has gone out in straight sets. 12 sides have gone out in straight sets.
2000-2015
2001 Port 3rd
2007 WCE 3rd
2014 Geelong 3rd, Freo 4th
2015 Sydney 4th
2016-2023
2016 Hawks 3rd
2018 Hawks 4th
2019 Brisbane 2nd
2021 Brisbane 4th
2022 Melbourne 2nd
2023 Melbourne 4th, Port 3rd
So the longer term trend says, 1st, 2nd or 3rd will win the premiership, 4th will do bugger all.
The shorter term trend say one of the top 4 sides will go out in straight sets and/or that one of the QF winners will lose the PF and a 5th to 8th side has a 50% chance of making the GF.
Thanks to GremioPower for the mid season conversation and stats on this history.
To me, 2024 is more like 1993 than 2016.
In 1993 there were 15 teams and 12 of them could beat each other. It was only a 20 games season and the 12th team won 10 out of their 20 games. Brisbane 4 wins 13th, Richmond 4 wins 14th and Sydney 1 win 15th, were hopeless and basically only beat each other, and with the odd shock win.
There was no real stand out dominate side. Essendon 1st and Carlton 2nd, both had 13 wins 1 draw as and 6 losses, they drew their game earlier in the season, were top of the ladder, and 12th placed St Kilda had 10 wins and 94.2%.
Only one side had 120+%, 3rd placed North who had 13 wins. Also the final position of the ladder wasn't known until the Sunday twilight, final game of the minor round, when Adelaide v Collingwood was played and the crows won.
In 2016 there were 7 teams that had a big gap on everyone else. After 21 games, 4 teams had 16 wins Sydney, Adelaide, Geelong and Hawthorn, and 3 sides on 15 wins, GWS, WCE and the Bulldogs. North had won 12 games and had 15% more than St Kilda, who had won 11 games, and the saints needed an absolute miracle to make up the approx 250 point difference to make the finals. See
AFL Ladder 2016 Round 22 - FinalSiren.com
AFL football statistics on AFL teams, games and players.
finalsiren.com
It was also the first year sides had to deal with the pre finals bye.
This year 14th placed Melbourne won 11 of their 23 games and had a percentage of 98.5%. Even Adelaide had a percentage of 99.1% from their 8 wins and 1 draw after losing 4 games by a kick and 6 in total by 2 kicks. And like 1993, there were 3 cellar dwellers. who basically beat each other and had the odd shock win.
23 of 24 premiers since the 2000 season (the first year the current finals system was introduced, and the first season where 100% of each clubs' list had full time professional footballers), have finished in the top 3 at end of the minor round.
Here is a cut and paste from and an SEN article from October 2022, about ladder positions and grand finalists. They worked out like I did a few years before them, that finishing 4th is almost irrelevant. Its finishing Top 3 that counts.
The ladder spots that lead to flags and the poisoned chalice position
Where is the prime spot on the ladder?
www.sen.com.au
They list who played the Preliminary Final first of the two PFs.
Except for 2 occasions, the 1st Preliminary Final ie the winner of 1v4 QF, played the first of the two PFs on a Friday night to get the extra days rest for the GF.
The exceptions have been 2016 and 2019 when for the 2nd Preliminary Final was played on the Friday night and the 1st Preliminary Final was played Saturday.
In 2016 Sydney finished 1st but lost to GWS in the 1v4 QF and played the 2nd PF v Geelong on Friday night so they got the extra days rest for the 2016 GF. In 2019 Geelong finished 1st but lost their QF and they played their PF on the Friday night, and would have got the extra days rest if they won the PF, as they were minor premiers.
This scheduling rule changed at some point between 2006 and 2016, as the previous two times the minor premier lost their home 1v4 QF, was 2005 Adelaide and 2006 West Coast, and they played their away PF after winning their SFs, on the Saturday and not the Friday night.
Its just another facet why its hard to win a GF if you don't finish top 3.
1 v 2.... 3-5
2001 - Essendon v Brisbane - 1 v 2
2004 - Port Adelaide v Brisbane - 1 v 2
2007 - Geelong v Port Adelaide - 1 v 2
2008 - Geelong v Hawthorn - 1 v 2
2009 - St Kilda v Geelong - 1 v 2
2011 - Collingwood v Geelong - 1 v 2
2014 - Sydney v Hawthorn - 1 v 2
2024 - Collingwood v Brisbane - 1 v 2
1 v 3.... 4-2
2000 - Essendon v Melbourne - 1 v 3
2010 - Collingwood v St Kilda - 1 v 3
2012 - Hawthorn v Sydney - 1 v 3
2013 - Hawthorn v Fremantle - 1 v 3
2017 - Adelaide v Richmond - 1 v 3
2022 - Geelong v Sydney - 1 v 3
1 v 4.... 1-0
2006 - Sydney v West Coast - 4 v 1
1 v 5.... 1-0
2021 - Melbourne v Western Bulldogs - 1 v 5
1 v 7.... 0-1
2016 - Sydney v Western Bulldogs - 1 v 7
2 v 3.... 1-3
2003 - Brisbane v Collingwood - 3 v 2
2005 - Sydney v West Coast - 3 v 2
2015 - Hawthorn v West Coast - 3 v 2
2018 - West Coast v Collingwood - 2 v 3
2 v 4 .... 1-0
2002 - Collingwood v Brisbane - 4 v 2
3 v 4.... 1-0
2020 - Richmond v Geelong - 3 v 4
3 v 6.... 1-0
2019 - Richmond v GWS - 3 v 6
So finishing outside the top 3 its been 1/24 flags and 6/24 chance of making a GF.
Of those 6 times, 3 have finished 4th and 3 lower than 4th. So 42 of 48 GF slots have gone to sides finishing in the Top 3.
But since 2016 when the finals bye was introduced, and Western Bulldogs took full advantage of this new change, more sides from outside the top 4 have made the GF, up to then only 2 had, in 2002 and 2006, and more sides are going out in straight sets.
48 Grand finalists since 2000 - 37 have won their QF and PF, 11 have won their EF, SF and PF. This can be split in to 2 periods.
2000-2015
32 QFs - 28 QF winners made the GF. 4 that missed out, lost to following SF winners;
2003 Sydney 4th beat Port 1st in QF and then lost home PF to triple heavy weight champion Brisbane (3rd) who won flag
2005 St Kilda 4th beat Adelaide 1st in QF and then lost home PF to Sydney(3rd) who then won the flag
2006 Adelaide 2nd beat Fremantle 3rd in QF then lost home PF to WCE (1st) who then won the flag
2015 Fremantle 1st beat Sydney 4th in QF then lost home PF to triple heavy weight champion Hawks (3rd) who won flag
In this period, 2 dynasty teams went against the grain and in 2005-06 Sydney and WCE had that run of close games against each other, and the side that lost their QF battles, then won the GF by the same margin
2016-2023
16 QFs - 9 QF winners made the GF. 7 that missed out, lost to following SF winners;
2016 GWS 4th beat Syd 1st, lost home PF to Bulldogs 7th who then won the flag
2016 Gee 2nd beat Haw 2nd, lost home PF to Sydney 1st
2018 Rich 1st beat Haw 4th, lost MCG PF to Collingwood 3rd
2019 Coll 4th beat Gee 1st, lost home PF to GWS 6th
2020 Port 1st beat Gee 4th lost home PF to Rich 3rd triple heavy weight champion who won the flag
2020 Bris 2nd beat Rich 3rd lost home PF to Gee 4th
2021 Port 2nd beat Gee 3rd lost home PF to Bulldogs 5th
That is reflected somewhat in who has gone out in straight sets. 12 sides have gone out in straight sets.
2000-2015
2001 Port 3rd
2007 WCE 3rd
2014 Geelong 3rd, Freo 4th
2015 Sydney 4th
2016-2023
2016 Hawks 3rd
2018 Hawks 4th
2019 Brisbane 2nd
2021 Brisbane 4th
2022 Melbourne 2nd
2023 Melbourne 4th, Port 3rd
So the longer term trend says, 1st, 2nd or 3rd will win the premiership, 4th will do bugger all.
The shorter term trend say one of the top 4 sides will go out in straight sets and/or that one of the QF winners will lose the PF and a 5th to 8th side has a 50% chance of making the GF.
Thanks to GremioPower for the mid season conversation and stats on this history.
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GremioPower
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RussellEbertHandball
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4th place proves to be irrelevant again to winning a flag.
I said in my previous post that based on shorter term trends, a QF loser will go out in straight sets, and there is a 50% chance a 5th to 8th side will make the GF.
Going out in straight sets is no longer a shorter term trend. In the 11 seasons since 2014 only 2 of those 11 seasons has a QF loser not gone out in straight sets, 2017 and 2020.
I said in my previous post that based on shorter term trends, a QF loser will go out in straight sets, and there is a 50% chance a 5th to 8th side will make the GF.
Going out in straight sets is no longer a shorter term trend. In the 11 seasons since 2014 only 2 of those 11 seasons has a QF loser not gone out in straight sets, 2017 and 2020.
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