March - Daily Punt

[Falcons]

Getting in early

Rosehill

Race 6: #1 Mouro @ $8.50

Race 3: Risen From Doubt @ $4

Race 8: #6 Carlton House @ $11

Morphettvile:

Race 1: #1 Generous Beau @ $2.10

Race 4: #3 Hotel Siera @ $4.80

Race 6: #1 Nearest to Pin @ $3.80

Sandown

Race 8: #10 Kitten on The Run @ $7.50

 

[PureFooty]

What do you think about A Time For Julia in R7?

I thought it would be more of a $10 chance, there a definitely a few who beat this horse on talent, but it should get a gun run, and is honest, and hasn't put a step wrong this prep, should be peaking now and I rate is as a definite chance. Only query is the 7 day back up, but last start was by no means a gut buster so I don't think it will be an issue.

 

[Windy At Moorabbin]

Main bet of the weekend will be Prince Cheri @ $4.40 in the Sky High Stakes. 3 lengths off Boban last start at WFA and was dominant 2nd up last preparation. Should start a lot shorter so get on now

 

[Main Man]

A Time For Julia has a good winning chance, I will be backing her, she gets the lovely run from 3 and is in peak form.

Catkins and Bonaria will be my best results however.

 

[Davedinkum]

What do you think about A Time For Julia in R7?

has been running really well and should be fighting fit but i think dear demi and bonaria are better roughies

 

[Substance]

like #3 Knight Fury in the last at pinjarra

 

[iluvparis]

Carlton House is an interesting one - on his UK form he was over 3kg's superior to Fiorente but whereas the latter seems to have grown another leg Carlton House hasn't got close to repliacting his European form in Australia - although looking at his formlines it seems there has been plenty of Waterhouse shenanigans going on in his Aussie career to date.

 

[Main Man]

Carlton House is an interesting one - on his UK form he was over 3kg's superior to Fiorente but whereas the latter seems to have grown another leg Carlton House hasn't got close to repliacting his European form in Australia - although looking at his formlines it seems there has been plenty of Waterhouse shenanigans going on in his Aussie career to date.

He hasn't been given the opportunity as yet, his 2 runs this campaign have been very good, first up over 1200M his closing sectionals were comparable to the likes of Boban and Speediness, as a result I backed him 2nd up when he went even better, 1200M - 1900M carrying 61kgs on a testing track he went some 9 lengths above benchmark for the first 1300M of the race, that is extraordinarily fast and given the circumstances he was entitled to run last, race rated very highly and Junoob is proving to be a high class animal so don't worry about what might be perceived as weaker form lines.

Advantages here are fitness, drops 2kgs in weight and will not have a testing track, he has shown in his trials and track gallops that he can match motors with Fiorente now he just has to do it on race day, I'm happy to take the $12 to find out as I know he is going far better than his form reads on paper.

I will be backing Carlton House and Fiorente for a similar result, risking IADD.

 

[RWnBluey]

Anyone think that Earthquake will drift further than $1.80?

 

[PureFooty]

IAD ran just as I thought it would first up, unfortunately I was laying Boban as he hadn't spelled well and didn't think he was going to go as well this prep. He was the fitter animal, strong peak and deservedly won. (Lesson learn't: Don't back against a Waller horse, especially in a race he loves to win).

I know I got burnt once, but I'm telling you it won't happen again. IAD will just win this race. Fiorente is a superstar, but geez IAD lacked a heap of fitness first-up and was still impressive through my eyes. Will be having my largest bet (1.5 times his first up run) on him again here, he could absolutely smash them in this one. Fiorente is the danger, but I feel he could be a little vulnerable 3rd up after 2 really tough wins. Couldn't touch Carlton House, based on his aussie form, and the fact he has to peak significantly to win this, I just can't have him less than 25-1. Will also be having a real crack at IAD in the QE, don't normally have anything but small bets on futures, and it's a risk because he's been injured before, but he'll just win this, go into favoritism, probably win the BMW and then win the QE.

So 40 win units IAD @2.90 TAB

Other bets:
Randwick
R1 Flamberge 4 Units @5 SB
R4 Earthquake 10 Units @1.85 SB
R5 Diametric 6 Units @7 SB
Prince Cheri 3 Units
R7 Dear Demi 3 Units
Longport 1 Units E-W
Arinosa 2 Units
R9 Guelph 12 Units

Moonee Valley
R3 Thermal Current 5 Units @4.4 SB
R4 Solicit 12 Units @1.85
R8 Classy Jack 15 Units @2.80 SB

Sandown
R5 Politeness 4 Units
R6 Pago Rock 5 Units
R8 Cavallo Nero 2 Units

I stand to lose a lot of money if these don't get up. If IAD get's up and I don't land another bet I still find myself up a bit.

 

[JuddsABlue]

A multi I've just plonked

Fiorente (2.75)
Earthquake (1.80)
Essendon to beat North Melbourne (2.25)
Louisville to win the NCAA Tournament (6.50)

$50 to win $3.6k

 

[TheKanga]

A multi I've just plonked

Fiorente (2.75)
Earthquake (1.80)
Essendon to beat North Melbourne (2.25)
Louisville to win the NCAA Tournament (6.50)

$50 to win $3.6k

Don't know about the NCAA thing but i reckon North will ruin your multi.
Essendon have 3 debutants and a poor forward line.

 

[Main Man]

Friday Selections:

Moonee Valley:

Race 4 - 3.5 Units Solicit - Poorly weighted against the likes of Marianne and Girl In Flight but with a more evenly run 1600M race I'm expecting her to bounce back to her first up rating which would see her nearly impossible go beat. The others had their chance to pass her last time at Flemington but interestingly their last 200M splits were no better than Solicits which suggests she was holding them on the line despite doing a mountain of work early. Best filly in Australia going forward for mine.

Race 7 - 1.2 Units Gregers - she is the one still on the up whilst the others have found their mark, her Oakleigh Plate runs was good (although SOB beats her here on that run) and her last start at Femington was even better. On the same day as the Newmarket her raw rating was 2 lengths inferior to SOB but here she meets him 7kgs better off, she rated 0.5 lengths superior to Shamexpress and meets him 6.5kgs better off in this race. If they all run to their last start rating or peak ratings for that matter then Gregers will be very had to beat. Races well at the Valley and despite a sticky raw she should get a reasonable run ins transit.

 

[rideclutch]

R4 Solicit 12 Units @1.85
R8 Classy Jack 15 Units @2.80 SB

Was gonna be a nice multi - CJ scratched, goes around $1.30 tomorrow in Adelaide

 

[PureFooty]

Was gonna be a nice multi - CJ scratched, goes around $1.30 tomorrow in Adelaide

Yeh was really dissapoonted with that, trainer must have heaps of time for this one

 

[Lockyer24]

Diametric - anyone know much about it? Trials and betting looks ominous, changed race target also

 

[Main Man]

Diametric - anyone know much about it? Trials and betting looks ominous, changed race target also

I backed it at the opening quote, has some terrific speedfigures from its overseas wins and his last 3 trials have been high class, loved the way the way he has found the line under no pressure whatsoever, Dear Demi was ridden out to beat him 2 trials ago whilst the jockey didn't move on him.

Doesn't have to be that good to be winning this race and the $9 early seemed worth the investment.

 

[Lockyer24]

I've got an inkling it will start fav

 

[Main Man]

I would be surprised if he doesn't. Enjoying the move for Messene also.

 

[Syrah]

I backed it at the opening quote, has some terrific speedfigures from its overseas wins and his last 3 trials have been high class, loved the way the way he has found the line under no pressure whatsoever, Dear Demi was ridden out to beat him 2 trials ago whilst the jockey didn't move on him.

Doesn't have to be that good to be winning this race and the $9 early seemed worth the investment.

Yep, I been watching its trials and waiting to smash it first up. Looks like I'm not the only one and I've now missed the good price.

 

[Falcons]

Moonee Valley Quaddie (Vic)
Friday, 21 March 2014 07:15 PM

1st Leg: 1
2nd Leg: 2,4
3rd Leg: 1,5,9
4th Leg: 11,13

 

[FantasticShirt]

Platelet at $3.30 (No. 1 Race 5 MV). Can't see it losing.

 

[Santoz]

Carlton House the place will be in my all up tomorrow.

Also like Malavio.

Will post my all up later tonight.


1 multi in play tonight.

(Melb Cup winner ) Solicit into Samaready into Essendon +6.5 pts

 

[hayes]

I've got one free bet left with ladbrokes. Already put one on Shamexpress, should I put the other on Samaready or Platelet? Decisionssssss.

 

[blackspider]

Thermal current, coronation shallon, spirit of boom, beach front. All for the place all up into eachother. Get on!