Racing Melbourne Cup 2017

[sethlad]

Bit of an update due here:
Couple of Japanese in mix,Albert & Admire Deus along with ATBs Tiberian who is past the ballot.
Talk of a couple of other Euros but nothing definite yet

Anyone else?

seth

 

[plays tall 1]

Mark Prescott's St Michel, a good third in the Belmont Gold Cup in June, is heading down for it. May need to run before the Cup to lift its rating a little.

Roger Varian's consistent Barsanti looks likely to be coming down.

Willie Mullins apparently keen to bring Thomas Hobson, but he probably needs to lift his rating.

 

[TBellicious]

Mark Prescott's St Michel, a good third in the Belmont Gold Cup in June, is heading down for it. May need to run before the Cup to lift its rating a little.

Roger Varian's consistent Barsanti looks likely to be coming down.

Willie Mullins apparently keen to bring Thomas Hobson, but he probably needs to lift his rating.

St Michel $41
Barsanti $35
Hobson $21

Bit of an update due here:
Couple of Japanese in mix,Albert & Admire Deus along with ATBs Tiberian who is past the ballot.
Talk of a couple of other Euros but nothing definite yet

Anyone else?

seth

Albert $26
Admire Deus $35
Tiberian $26

With TAB

 

[sethlad]

Mark Prescott's St Michel, a good third in the Belmont Gold Cup in June, is heading down for it. May need to run before the Cup to lift its rating a little.
Roger Varian's consistent Barsanti looks likely to be coming down.
Willie Mullins apparently keen to bring Thomas Hobson, but he probably needs to lift his rating.

St Michel was massive in US behind Red Cardinal who is current fave.
Fan of Barsanti & Varian but he's a C Cup horse.
Pass on TH as he has 4000m form

seth

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Francis of Assisi first up @ Haydock tonight will be a keen watch

 

[sethlad]

Francis of Assisi first up @ Haydock tonight will be a keen watch

Not overly inspiring:
https://www.racinguk.com/results/68023-betfred-rose-of-lancaster-stakes-group-3-1

Aus Bloodstock have bought Admire Deus & it's now fave in some markets

seth

 

[iluvparis]

Anyone else?

seth

Darby are already trying to flog shares in Soldier in Action which won at the Goodwood festival. Ebor next then they will try and qualify it through Geelong Cup I think.

 

[TBellicious]

Darby are already trying to flog shares in Soldier in Action which won at the Goodwood festival. Ebor next then they will try and qualify it through Geelong Cup I think.

Has your opinion on the Ebor as a form reference changed after Heartbreak City last year?

 

[iluvparis]

Has your opinion on the Ebor as a form reference changed after Heartbreak City last year?

Nope - just like I won't be loading up on the Bart Cummings winner just because Almandin won last year. Ebor winners just aren't good enough.

 

[plays tall 1]

Nope - just like I won't be loading up on the Bart Cummings winner just because Almandin won last year. Ebor winners just aren't good enough.

I think the Bart Cummings will become a much more important Cup lead. The decision in 2015 to give the winner exemption from the ballot means it will become a key target for horses that have beaten the handicapper. Lloyd Williams for one will continue to use it. I expect he may take Kilimanjaro and Crocodile Rock that way, if their form and allocated weight warrants it.

 

[iluvparis]

I think the Bart Cummings will become a much more important Cup lead. The decision in 2015 to give the winner exemption from the ballot means it will become a key target for horses that have beaten the handicapper. Lloyd Williams for one will continue to use it. I expect he may take Kilimanjaro and Crocodile Rock that way, if their form and allocated weight warrants it.

I would be surprised if anyone except Lloyd can get a horse to do the double.

 

[Jugada]

It's all about the individual horses. What races they come through doesn't make one lick of difference

 

[iluvparis]

It's all about the individual horses. What races they come through doesn't make one lick of difference

Would make sense except that good horses run in certain races and bad horses run in certain races.

 

[Ari]

Yeah he'll be mid 50's kgs. But I'm happy enough having a little look at 51s. I'm not a huge punter, more of an avid spectator and happy to open up the kick 12 months out to see if I can prove myself right.

Unless I'm on track, then it's a free for all.

67/1 on Crownbet at the moment for Qewy. Just put a lazy $30 on it for $2k.

 

[iluvparis]

67/1 on Crownbet at the moment for Qewy. Just put a lazy $30 on it for $2k.

$21 available to back at $80 on betfair

 

[Saintly Viewed]

It's all about the individual horses. What races they come through doesn't make one lick of difference

There is a lot of simplicity and correctness right there.

The horse doesn't know, it just runs.

But different trainers use different pathways to get there.

The better the race, the better the prize money, the better to qualify on ballots etc will all be taken into consideration.

The big new advantage of the Bart Cummings race is the automatic qualification it gives a horse.

So a lower weighted horse might go to that race so they have a month to spare than risk all going into the old Horsham Hcp three days prior to the cup to snag an automatic spot.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

I think I've found a nice thread here

 

[iluvparis]

Solid bubble burst overnight with ruling fave Red Cardinal beaten out of sight in the Kergorlay.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Marmelo any chance to head down?

 

[plays tall 1]

Marmelo any chance to head down?

Apparently they're talking Arc with Marmelo...

 

[iluvparis]

Apparently they're talking Arc with Marmelo...

L o flipping L

Couldn't win an Arc if it started to now - will be 1000/1

 

[plays tall 1]

RV Twitter are saying that Marmelo "could be coming" for the Melbourne Cup. Not sure of their source, if any. Some of their tweets have been a bit misleading lately.

This is what one of the owners of Marmelo told Racing Post:
"This is probably his best run to date but we're hoping he saves his best for 1 October. We know he likes Chantilly because he broke the track record [over 1m71⁄2f] and that's why decided with Hughie to spend a few pennies. He might be the only chance we get to run in the Arc."

I agree, he has no chance in the Arc.

 

[iluvparis]

This is what one of the owners of Marmelo told Racing Post:
"This is probably his best run to date but we're hoping he saves his best for 1 October. We know he likes Chantilly because he broke the track record [over 1m71⁄2f] and that's why decided with Hughie to spend a few pennies. He might be the only chance we get to run in the Arc."

This sounds like connections who are obviously targeting Melbourne.

 

[plays tall 1]

This sounds like connections who are obviously targeting Melbourne.

Unhelpful for RV to put this stuff out if there's nothing to back it up.

They've also implied that Frontiersman may be coming even though Appleby had clearly stated otherwise and, being partially blind in one eye, it's unclear if he'd be allowed to run here anyway.

 

[sethlad]

Dampens mine:
https://www.racing.com/news/2017-08-21/cardinal-defeat-doesnt-dampen-cup-hopes

seth