Marmelo has to deal with the second crack at the Cup curse
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Racing Melbourne Cup 2018 and all Cup Day discussion.(Posting of bets after the race will be carded)
- Thread starter Viva la Mattner
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Tab and others have top 10 markets.
Does anybody like something at odds they see as a real show finishing top 10.
Does anybody like something at odds they see as a real show finishing top 10.
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- #803
Both of Sound Check and Who Shot Thebarman can certainly run the trip and are at odds
Chism
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Where did Marmelo run last year?
Chism
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Chestnut Coat.
9th
Chism
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Stats say it is no chance then.
Horses that run in the Cup and do not win or place on their first effort have shocking records after that when returning for another crack.
99% of the time if you don't win on your first try and are having another crack you are not winning it at all and check the stats! ( Brew being the only exception in the 1% )
So virtually put a line through all the horses that have run in the Cup before and done nothing as they are not winning chances.
Chism
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Youngster up against the odds and way unders currently at 15-1.
Mares win infrequently. Two in 20 years, and six in just over 50 years. Not a lot start, but there are always several each year. Only the very good ones win, the proven ones. Light Fingers, Let’s Elope, Empire Rose, the kind that already have a very good win in a big race to boast of.
Only Hi Jinx robbed the till.
Mares win infrequently. Two in 20 years, and six in just over 50 years. Not a lot start, but there are always several each year. Only the very good ones win, the proven ones. Light Fingers, Let’s Elope, Empire Rose, the kind that already have a very good win in a big race to boast of.
Only Hi Jinx robbed the till.
A few questions have been raised about Youngstar’s stamina. He granddam, User Friendly, won the
The Oaks Gr.1 (GB), Irish Oaks Gr.1 (IRE), Yorkshire Oaks Gr.1 (GB), St Leger S. Gr.1 (GB), Grand Prix de Saint Cloud Gr.1 (FR). Her sire’s High Chapparal. I suspect she’ll stay. Whether she’s good enough i’m not sure.
The Oaks Gr.1 (GB), Irish Oaks Gr.1 (IRE), Yorkshire Oaks Gr.1 (GB), St Leger S. Gr.1 (GB), Grand Prix de Saint Cloud Gr.1 (FR). Her sire’s High Chapparal. I suspect she’ll stay. Whether she’s good enough i’m not sure.
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Stats say it is no chance then.
Horses that run in the Cup and do not win or place on their first effort have shocking records after that when returning for another crack.
99% of the time if you don't win on your first try and are having another crack you are not winning it at all and check the stats! ( Brew being the only exception in the 1% )
So virtually put a line through all the horses that have run in the Cup before and done nothing as they are not winning chances.
Usually I would too but I feel that you need to reach for anything outside of Yucatan and Yucatan has drawn the car park so you need to consider horses you otherwise wouldn't.
I think a lot of horses get broken by a cup run and never recover.
Marmelo has had 4 starts since for two wins and two seconds.
They have changed up their approach so at least there is some optimism there that they can get a different result.
A bit of rain and a soft 5 track upgraded to a good 4 would be perfect for him I think.
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- #812
She's a decent chance had a play at about 20/1
And thrown into trifecta
Not using Caulfield Cup as form guide IMO this year
Chism
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I hate favourites in the Cup and never touch them.
Over the past 20 years there have been 22 favourites (three were equal-favs) and four have won, at 5/1, 7/1, 7/2 and 3/1. That’s 22.5 units back for 22, about even. But who wants to finish even after 20 years?
So out they go!
Chism
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She is unders for mine at 15-1.
Should be 30-1+ considering the history Mares have in the race and she ran her grand final in the Cox Plate IMO.
Is there a doubt on Moher at the distance?
Chism
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I think so.
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I would say yes particularly at 56.5kg.
Profiles similar to Johannes Vermeer last year but that carried two kilos less.
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FiorenteStats say it is no chance then.
Horses that run in the Cup and do not win or place on their first effort have shocking records after that when returning for another crack.
99% of the time if you don't win on your first try and are having another crack you are not winning it at all and check the stats! ( Brew being the only exception in the 1% )
So virtually put a line through all the horses that have run in the Cup before and done nothing as they are not winning chances.
I'll be on it, if it rains!!!.
GreyCrow
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Any thoughts on Ace High - 2017 Victoria Derby winner.
Chism
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100-1 for a reason but Derby form rarely holds up.
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