- May 20, 2014
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Damn looks like Magic Plodder will have to go in the multiples. Duretto was much better value.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Racing Melbourne Cup 2018 and all Cup Day discussion.(Posting of bets after the race will be carded)
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Damn looks like Magic Plodder will have to go in the multiples. Duretto was much better value.
- May 20, 2014
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Perhaps Gai is realistic and knows it won't run 3200m so is going to target the Lexus instead?
Lol who am I kidding.
She probably just hasn't got around to checking the order of entry lately.
It is in the cup now with Duretto scratched. Before the scratching it could have been knocked out by the derby and Lexus winner. I’m positive it won’t run the Lexus now.
- Mar 17, 2014
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The last few 3yos who have won have carried 47 kilos or less when the topweight was much higher and the weights were not compressed. If Thinking Big has to carry 53 which is 4kgs less than the top weight just to get a run he will be totally noncompetitive. I would suggest even with his current weight he would be noncompetitive.
Compressed weights just means the cup is a glorified set weights and penalties and Aussie 3yo is wasting his time running.
As an aside i have laid 3yos shorties against older horses before new years on betfair and its a goldmine. They just arent mature enough usually (always some anomalies though)
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iluvparis
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53!? Wtf are you talking about. If he runs at all he won’t be carrying a feather more than 49
iluvparis
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Yup. Owners have said they will be scratching now.
Better Loosen Up
Brownlow Medallist
Anyone interested in doing a form discussion for the MC on Monday night?
If there is enough interest, i will create a separate thread.
If there is enough interest, i will create a separate thread.
Better Loosen Up
Brownlow Medallist
I'm thinking we start at a certain time, allocate 5 mins per horse (1min for Zacada if it runs should be sufficient) so everyone can post their thoughts on each horse and then leave any quoting or further discussion at the end? Thoughts?
- Mar 17, 2014
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I cant get my head around this. so if he gets a penalty to run how does he stay at 49? This benchmark crap has got me flummoxed
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Good idea
As usual will be heading to call of the card Monday, like last year I’ll attempt to post the odds and higher end bets. Reiterating ‘attempt’, I like to get my monies worth when it comes to beer and wine.
Not many going around that weight, if runs fair chance he’ll be ridden overs.
Is there an entry fee for that? It’s at crown yes?
Mobythepom
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He's only on 49 at the moment as that is the minimum allowed. Benchmark for a 3yo colt is 50.0 and he's -9.5 so if the minimum didn't apply he'd race off 40.5.
So he'd have to be reassessed as 9kg higher for a Derby win before he carried over 49 in the Cup!
Paris is right.....he won't carry a feather over 49......not even an ant's kneecap over
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I won’t have much to add but always keen to hear people’s thoughts.
- Mar 17, 2014
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Ok that makes sense. Its stupid but it makes sense. He will still be poorly weighted though!He's only on 49 at the moment as that is the minimum allowed. Benchmark for a 3yo colt is 50.0 and he's -9.5 so if the minimum didn't apply he'd race off 40.5.
So he'd have to be reassessed as 9kg higher for a Derby win before he carried over 49 in the Cup!
Paris is right.....he won't carry a feather over 49......not even an ant's kneecap over
I say bring back minimum topweight 62 and weight every other horse accordingly!
Yeah mate it’s at Palladium, roughly $200 or $240 depending on your table. Still tickets available via Ticketmaster. Favourite day of the year, been going for 15 or so years now. Even better day if you can get yourself/your group into the after party at club 23, managed to do that every year but no idea what the deal with it is this year with TAB sponsoring it instead of Crownbet/BetEasy.
- May 20, 2014
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None of us have much to add
Having strong opinions and potting the ones in the market is the game. Sometimes you are right, sometimes you are wrong. No point discussing it if everyone sits on the fence.
Red Verdon the latest to suffer a setback.
Kinda funny thing is that Withold woulda probably got a run if just waited.
Kinda funny thing is that Withold woulda probably got a run if just waited.
Sportsbet are doing $3 for Avilius/Cross Counter or Magic Circle to run top 5 in the cup. Surely this is great odds seeing as they are around $2.25 just to place?? Max Bet is like $250 as well. Thoughts?
toxic
Premium Gold
Weather for Tuesday in melb?
Did i see a forecast of storms
Did i see a forecast of storms
- May 20, 2014
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A wet track would definitely force a rethink.
Will need a hell of a lot of rain to have much impact. Flemington had 32mm of rain on the Friday before Emirates Day in 2015 and it was a soft 5, down to a soft 7 by end of the day. And that was on the 4th meeting in 7 days.
For mine that becomes either Cross Counter or Magic Circle as I’ve got a line through Avilius, don’t think finishes top 5 let alone top 3. So that becomes a 33% chance for me that one of those two horses beats home at least 19 other runners.
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