Racing Melbourne Cup 2021 - Dedicated Raceday thread

[onthehill24]

Lol better than VE. Plz

If VE doesn't run in cups
Who is our best stayer ?

 

[iluvparis]

If VE doesn't run in cups
Who is our best stayer ?

Sir Dragonet theoretically but he could be absolutely gone

 

[onthehill24]

Sir Dragonet theoretically but he could be absolutely gone

What about over 2400mts or longer ?

 

[iluvparis]

What about over 2400mts or longer ?

That's what I was talking about already

 

[Jugada]

Incentivise looking likely to get around 53kg for the Cup...

 

[iluvparis]

Incentivise looking likely to get around 53kg for the Cup...

Normally right on the borderline for an older horse - might be ok if less raiders come this year.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Incentivise looking likely to get around 53kg for the Cup...

Source?

Struggle to see it making more than 51.5kg at first weight release personally? Regardless would be thinking his race will be the CC not MC if you playing him.

 

[Jugada]

Source?

Struggle to see it making more than 51.5kg at first weight release personally? Regardless would be thinking his race will be the CC not MC if you playing him.

Greg Carpenter

 

[FallingLiefs]

Greg Carpenter

Wow, that is savage for a G3 win. 10 years ago we'd be talking this guy up in the 40s kg range and requiring win to get in.

 

[cruskits]

Life is good again… Melbourne Cup Big Footy chat is back. I have been checking every week or so. So so so stoked it’s back.

Personally I’m devastated that it looks like we won’t get as many internationals. I find it harder to line up the local horses against each other in the Melbourne Cup rather than just try and pick the best international.

Anyways great to see it back with the regular names contributing already…

 

[iluvparis]

Life is good again… Melbourne Cup Big Footy chat is back. I have been checking every week or so. So so so stoked it’s back.

Personally I’m devastated that it looks like we won’t get as many internationals. I find it harder to line up the local horses against each other in the Melbourne Cup rather than just try and pick the best international.

Anyways great to see it back with the regular names contributing already…

It's not that big a deal from a punting perspective if no raiders came as the locals race each other to death in the lead ups so its normally reasonably obvious which ones can win.

 

[Jugada]

I'm not worried about a few less coming from Europe, its more so that in the past we have been able to get on the Euros when we knew they were coming before the odds moved or post a nice win late at night before the corps wake up to it here in the morning. Now you have to run the risk of doing your money cold if something shows up on the radioactive juice.

Probably going to be a lot better ROI keeping up to date with what the Japs are doing

 

[iluvparis]

I'm not worried about a few less coming from Europe, its more so that in the past we have been able to get on the Euros when we knew they were coming before the odds moved or post a nice win late at night before the corps wake up to it here in the morning. Now you have to run the risk of doing your money cold if something shows up on the radioactive juice.

Probably going to be a lot better ROI keeping up to date with what the Japs are doing

Yeah the issue with the japs is they are much much less likely to come on average. Whereas you could theoretically back any half decent two-bit stayer in Europe and be fairly safe some local mug would buy it

 

[dontlimitme]

who do i bet on people

i currently have various stupid bets going including montefilia, amade, delphi, suprise baby, aristoteles, cherry tortoni and secret advisor

i need more lotto tickets

 

[iluvparis]

who do i bet on people

i currently have various stupid bets going including montefilia, amade, delphi, suprise baby, aristoteles, cherry tortoni and secret advisor

i need more lotto tickets

Constantinople just got sold. Maybe they can send him to the beaches!

 

[iluvparis]

 

[54Dogs]

Toffee Tongue currently playing bingo at Living Legends

 

[iluvparis]

Toffee Tongue currently playing bingo at Living Legends

Look closer

 

[plays tall 1]

Apparently the Japanese are unlikely to come due to a COVID restriction that would make it hard for their grooms to attend, presumably quarantine or something.

Verry Elleegant’s run was huge last year. If she gets in around the weight this year she’ll give it a huge shake. $26 looks like value to me.

Incentivise a query to run 2 miles on pedigree, looks unders.

Delphi possibly worth a dabble at $41, at least he’s here.

Hard to get enthused about it this year given the uncertainty over who’ll travel and, of those, who’ll survive Werribee and pass the new scans.

 

[iluvparis]

Apparently the Japanese are unlikely to come due to a COVID restriction that would make it hard for their grooms to attend, presumably quarantine or something.

Verry Elleegant’s run was huge last year. If she gets in around the weight this year she’ll give it a huge shake. $26 looks like value to me.

Incentivise a query to run 2 miles on pedigree, looks unders.

Delphi possibly worth a dabble at $41, at least he’s here.

Hard to get enthused about it this year given the uncertainty over who’ll travel and, of those, who’ll survive Werribee and pass the new scans.

Agree VE looks the best local but couldn't take $26 as they might squib it and head to the Mackinnon

You couldn't touch Delphi with a 10 ft pole until he shows something again - could be completely gone already.

I can't see any value about betting early this year - time to bet will be when raiders start stepping on planes.

 

[54Dogs]

Surely VE gets weighted out of the cup with the WFA record

 

[Jugada]

The boys already have a Cups horse this year now so wouldn't expect VE to go down that path again

 

[iluvparis]

Surely VE gets weighted out of the cup with the WFA record

Depends how Carps interprets it - already penalized for last years CC win when she ran last year and since then only 1 group 1 win in the Ranvet? - he could argue she failed last year with the weight so can get the same again?

 

[iluvparis]

The boys already have a Cups horse this year now so wouldn't expect VE to go down that path again

She'll have to be diverted when that one ends up in the Lavazza long black though.

Even then I'll think they will squib it saying they don't want to risk her.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Grand Promenade a chance to sneak in if less internationals
Won well on Saturday over the 2600m