Racing Melbourne Cup 2021 - Dedicated Raceday thread

[Jugada]

NH 3yo + Gai is a monty to be over backed in the lead up and on the day. Even though the latter is a neg

 

[Jugada]

Cormorant one of the more bewildering ones moving up in the market on the corps

 

[iluvparis]

As a NH 3yo I expect his price to shorten sharply if he gets here.

May need a run over here although that hasn’t been the pattern for the NH3yos.

id be much less keen if he ran here fist. The pattern is first up in the cup before local trainer can **** them up

 

[iluvparis]

NH 3yo + Gai is a monty to be over backed in the lead up and on the day. Even though the latter is a neg

will be heavily backed as it has great form and the recent profile you need to run well

 

[HeathySure]

View attachment 1210422

translation. UK team panicking Aussie buyers are going to pull out. Better spin some crap

 

[iluvparis]

translation. UK team panicking Aussie buyers are going to pull out. Better spin some crap

wut? It’s already been sold.

 

[HeathySure]

wut? It’s already been sold.

it was a joke. But i have read thousands of comments from owners/trainers after meh runs trying to pump their horses up. I hate the spin. I just trust my eyes

 

[iluvparis]

it was a joke. But i have read thousands of comments from owners/trainers after meh runs trying to pump their horses up. I hate the spin. I just trust my eyes

meh run? Was completely fine and more than good enough to be challenging for a Melbourne cup

 

[Jugada]

will be heavily backed as it has great form and the recent profile you need to run well

Its clearly a step behind the ones who have come out and won previously and would have wanted to see it step up in the GV or St Leger before getting too heavily involved. I guess that could balance out with this years field also likely being weaker but then its also hot the local trainer handbrake which will likely make it worse off but SP shorter so not a great mix

 

[iluvparis]

Its clearly a step behind the ones who have come out and won previously and would have wanted to see it step up in the GV or St Leger before getting too heavily involved. I guess that could balance out with this years field also likely being weaker but then its also hot the local trainer handbrake which will likely make it worse off but SP shorter so not a great mix

Lol it basically has the same (well better) form lines as IL P who was a moral beaten and who REGRESSED from being beaten a similar margin in the GV in the Leger. We have seen previously that being beaten <2 L in a Gordon Stakes and GV is more than good enough to be right at the top end of a Cup. The only reason you wouldn't be backing it now is scan risk but once its on the plane it is an obvious bet as there is no way it SPs anywhere near current price if it gets there on the day and is more than good enough to win.

 

[Jugada]

Lol it basically has the same (well better) form lines as IL P who was a moral beaten and who REGRESSED from being beaten a similar margin in the GV in the Leger. We have seen previously that being beaten <2 L in a Gordon Stakes and GV is more than good enough to be right at the top end of a Cup. The only reason you wouldn't be backing it now is scan risk but once its on the plane it is an obvious bet as there is no way it SPs anywhere near current price if it gets there on the day and is more than good enough to win.

Il Paradiso never ran in the GV but yeah that's probably the closest comparison but I also rate IP at the bottom of the ones that have come out here and run well, he is not at a Rekindling, CC or Tiger Moth level. Its also not like I don't have him in the mix, he would be in my top 5 or 6 just not the #1 and the 26s at the moment is a fair price and I can't see him ever really being a great bet given the likelihood of shortening and the fact he will be locally trained

 

[iluvparis]

CC also turned it up in the GV and was rolled before coming here. Rekindling was rolled in the English Leger and the Irish Leger trial which is not a strong race. There is very little between all the horses you have named and they all have very similar formlines and profiles to Sir L and given how weak your top 5 or 6 list was earlier he looks clear top pick of the raiders at this stage and top 1 or 2 overall

He will be as 'locally trained' as the Dragon was in last years Cox Plate. If he gets on the plane the $26 will be a gift for book builders if nothing else.

 

[Jugada]

CC also turned it up in the GV and was rolled before coming here. Rekindling was rolled in the English Leger and the Irish Leger trial which is not a strong race. There is very little between all the horses you have named and they all have very similar formlines and profiles to Sir L and given how weak your top 5 or 6 list was earlier he looks clear top pick of the raiders at this stage and top 1 or 2 overall

He will be as 'locally trained' as the Dragon was in last years Cox Plate. If he gets on the plane the $26 will be a gift for book builders if nothing else.

CC ran 2nd as a 6/4F in the GV. Sir L was unplaced at 4/1. That's without question Ad CC as the better prospect coming out here. I'm not saying he is panels off them but he is clearly below them for mine.

Sir D a clear exception and you know it when it comes to local trainers.

If you can get the $26 once he is on his way but before the market reacts then fair o id probably have a small bet too but im not as keen as I have been in previous 3yos who came out

 

[iluvparis]

CC ran 2nd as a 6/4F in the GV. Sir L was unplaced at 4/1. That's without question Ad CC as the better prospect coming out here. I'm not saying he is panels off them but he is clearly below them for mine.

Sir D a clear exception and you know it when it comes to local trainers.

If you can get the $26 once he is on his way but before the market reacts then fair o id probably have a small bet too but im not as keen as I have been in previous 3yos who came out

Lol well that is just made up? He has gone backwards furlongs with his local trainer. Gai has got Fiorente to run second first up for her already. Waller has had Finche run third.

There is no reason not to be equally as keen on this bloke as every 3yo that has come out so far and run superbly. He has the exact same profile and you are clutching at straws with the form differentials.

 

[Jugada]

Lol well that is just made up? He has gone backwards furlongs with his local trainer. Gai has got Fiorente to run second first up for her already. Waller has had Finche run third.

There is no reason not to be equally as keen on this bloke as every 3yo that has come out so far and run superbly. He has the exact same profile and you are clutching at straws with the form differentials.

Please mate I'm sure I could find a post from you inside the last 2 pages here negging the effect of being with a local trainer out here.

Tired argument anyway now as I have him in the mix just not sitting at the top of my list

 

[iluvparis]

Please mate I'm sure I could find a post from you inside the last 2 pages here negging the effect of being with a local trainer out here.

Tired argument anyway now as I have him in the mix just not sitting at the top of my list

I've said it is a negative but nowhere near big enough to offset the positives. If he runs here before the cup for her - different story - but it wont

This was the kind of thinking that got us Sir D at $13 30 minutes before the jock in the Cox Plate.

 

[Jugada]

Spanish Mission going to be another watch and see job tonight in the Lonsdale Cup. If he wins well then the 31s on offer are as good as you will see

 

[iluvparis]

Spanish Mission going to be another watch and see job tonight in the Lonsdale Cup. If he wins well then the 31s on offer are as good as you will see

Just take it now - he wont jump that - your only risk is scan fail.

 

[Jugada]

Just take it now - he wont jump that - your only risk is scan fail.

Yeah tempted as it's floating around the 19 to 26 mark with most books already. Hard to pass up a free shot at looking at him in a matter of hours though

 

[plays tall 1]

Very good run Spanish Mission. After a couple of years of teasing Futures punters it sounds like he’s really going to travel down here for the Cup this year. Certainly a live chance on that effort. Will get plenty of weight given his rating but he’s earned it. Prefers good ground.

 

[iluvparis]

Very good run Spanish Mission. After a couple of years of teasing Futures punters it sounds like he’s really going to travel down here for the Cup this year. Certainly a live chance on that effort. Will get plenty of weight given his rating but he’s earned it. Prefers good ground.

these types always end up being too slow (and this guy will be as well) like your trip to Paris’s but if you took the 34 as advised a few weeks ago your book is looking great.

will be one to leave off the win lines on the day though at what is sure to be big unders as he plods home somewhere between 3rd and 7th

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Huge from the big Spaniard
Showed a little turn of foot too which was positive

is York an undulating track Paris?

Ebor tonight… let’s see who’s spruiked from it

 

[iluvparis]

Huge from the big Spaniard
Showed a little turn of foot too which was positive

is York an undulating track Paris?

Ebor tonight… let’s see who’s spruiked from it

Nope its dead flat.

Here are the horses you can pen straight away from a Melbourne Cup perspective because they are lining up in the Slowbor tonight

SONNYBOYLISTON
MIRANN
AWAY HE GOES
EAGLES BY DAY
MAKAWEE

 

[Jugada]

Doesn't look like there are any Heartbreak City's but still obviously worth a watch in case something goes huge

 

[iluvparis]

Doesn't look like there are any Heartbreak City's but still obviously worth a watch in case something goes huge

Yes - basically a big watch race in case something goes huge and you wake up and lay it for you entire betfair bank.