Racing Melbourne Cup 2023 ( no after the fact posts)

[Jugada]

Post Caulfield Cup rankings

1A. GOLD TRIP - Really good run in the Caulfield Cup beating everything bar the winner heading this way comfortably. Expect Flemington to suit him a lot better and presume he meets WAF slightly better at the weights now heading there. Has the class and is already proven running out a strong 2 miles in the Melbourne Cup. All going to be weather dependent as to whether he is the top seed or not. If the track has give in it then it really improves his chances and puts the slows on his main rivals.

1B. WITHOUT A FIGHT - Brilliant winner of the Caulfield Cup. Had a couple lengths on Gold Trip and 5 lengths + on everything else heading this way so very hard to see anything else bar GT being able to turn the tables at Flemington. Technically he is unproven at the trip but with 2800m form in England the expectation is that shouldn't be a problem out here. His wheels don't spin on a wet surface though so if we have a soft track then its almost rule a line territory. Firm track though and he is the one to beat.

3. SOULCOMBE - Complete barrier rogue. Walked out 8 lengths behind them in the Caulfield Cup and ran really well considering. Made up good ground in that race through the 800-600 and was on the back of WAF and GT but then got crowded for a bit of room in the straight before plugging home reasonably. I think 2 miles at Flemington will suit him perfectly and that was a decent Cup trial all things considered but he is just consistently shit at the barriers and is just getting worse so no reason to think he wont miss the kick poorly at Flemington again and have to pass the whole field.

4. VAUBAN - Valiant King didn't exactly frank the form at Caulfield but he finished around these sort of horses and Vauban did beat him pretty comfortably by a couple lengths so would expect him to be in this sort of area still.

5. BREAKUP - Average at best Caulfield Cup run and he just didnt seem fast enough or good enough to sustain speed over 2400m. I expect the bigger Flemington track and the 2 miles to both be better suited for him but not by enough to be able to make up the difference on those already rated ahead of him.

Doesn't seem any point in going beyond this for winning chances for me. It was a strong Caulfield Cup and that is THE form race for Flemington with the other lead ups looking pretty lackluster. For the sake of looking deeper ill just round out the list with the best roughies for the back end of exotics.

ASHRUN - Currently $120 was one of the better runs out of the Bart Cummings. Off the scene for pretty much 2 years his first up run this prep was really good sitting 3WNC and getting beat 3.75L over 1700m. Backed that up in the Bart Cummings running on really well from last clocking the best last 800, 600 and 400 whilst giving away 5kg to the first two.

DAQUIANSWEET JUNIOR - Currently $101. As previously stated in this thread he is basically on the same prep as last year where he ran a credible 6th in the Cup and gets in nice and light in the weights. His 3200m form in this country is good and generally runs above market expectations when getting out to a trip so can see him running past some more tired horses at the end.

SPANISH MISSION - Currently $65. As said above he had been pegged as an out and out 2 miler since he got here and he has had 6 runs since that Spring for 5 goes at 2000m or less and one go at 2400m on a wet track which he doesn't go on. He is older, locally trained and had injuries so obviously not near his best but he has a lot more class potential than anything else in the dregs and his last start Turnbull 8th has a lot of merit crossing the line with most of these types.

VIRTUOUS CIRCLE - Currently $55. Had no luck in the Bart Cummings when running into traffic everywhere. Think he finishes considerably closer with luck and meets most of that field better of fat the weights should they meet again at Flemington.

MORE FELONS - Currently $300. For the plays tall believers. Yet to be seen but on his European form he isn't really any worse off than a lot of others also making up the numbers and he is a considerably better price than most of them. He will stay the 2 miles no problems and gets in light at the weights. For comparison he took on Absurde in the Ebor in their last race start before coming here and he was 14/1 vs 7/1 in that race carrying basically a kilo more and now meets him 3.5kg better off for a 3 length defeat in that race so I think id rather spec MF at 15x the price.


Trouble with a lot of the roughies though is they are on the day F4 add ons and if they run well before the Cup the odds will likely be gone and if they run like shit you probably dont want to be with them...

 

[Viva la Mattner]

VK definitely in, OS should scrape in
VK needs a massive form turnaround

 

[cruskits]

The trouble is there are only 72 left on the OOE… I remember last year we got pretty close to not even getting 24 to the starting line… with my red pen are we going to be looking at a similar outcome. Are we going to get to 24??

Hmm with some of those names you’ve listed other than WAF
Here’s a link you’ll need
www.officeworks.com.au

You’ll be going through a few red pens crossing out names

 

[Viva la Mattner]

The trouble is there are only 72 left on the OOE… I remember last year we got pretty close to not even getting 24 to the starting line… with my red pen are we going to be looking at a similar outcome. Are we going to get to 24??

They’ll get to 24 easy this year
Treat yourself , get a highlighter too

 

[Jugada]

Updated pre weights rankings

1. Tower of London - Still the #1 seed until I hear he's not coming. Aiden sending out a Cox Plate runner though now can only be a positive. Lead up run in the St Leger running on from last to finish 4th on unsuitable ground looks right in the sweet spot for what you wanted to see.

2. Without a Fight - We will get to see how he comes back this week but goes up a spot due to Silver Sonic coming out.

3. Breakup - Bumping him up a spot now that he is confirmed in quarantine.

4. Vauban - Continues to be putrid odds 7 weeks out but obviously a decent chance still and now he is here at least.

5. Desert Hero - The other St Leger 3yo that ran a good 3rd crossing the line with TOL. Looking more likely to come out than not at the moment. Find it hard to see him beating home TOL out here though presuming we get a good track.

6. Just Fine - Main mover. Huge win in the Kingston Town after that good first up run here. Most of his racing has been at 2000m so distance a query but on breeding I think he is a pretty strong chance to run it. No idea why he isn't in the Caulfield Cup as that looks more like his race.

7. Francesco Guardi - Makybe Diva run was pretty much par. Nothing to move the needle.

8. Duke De Sessa - Nice enough return. Both runs out here have been half a mile short of what he wants but actually thought his run in the Doncaster was very good. Keen to see him out to 1800m this week.

9. Gold Trip - Nice return from a former Cups horse. Needs to back up that effort and will likely cop too much weight but sneaks in at the bottom with not much else around.

10. West Wind Blows - Doubt he runs the 2 miles but if he does then he has a winning chance which is more than I can say for much else.

OUTS

Valiant King - Went awful at his last start before coming here. Could not back a horse to turn it around on that
Virtuous Circle - Complete dog s**t in the Feehan

Changes with weights, horses flopping, horses not coming and horses firming up too much.


1. Without a Fight - Great return in the Underwood sitting out the back and reeling off the fastest last everything pretty much on the clock. Goes straight to Caulfield now and if the track is good he will be very hard to beat in both. Hard to get too heavily invested in futures though as he will have pretty much none on a wet track but

2. Breakup - Goes up another spot with the Euro 3yos not running. Has got in fair at 55kgs but another who will need a firm track.

3. Vauban - Cant back him at the odds but he still has to slot in at around this position.

4. Francesco Guardi - Hasn't been seen since but goes up a couple rungs just because others are falling away despite not being that well treated at the weights with 54kg.

5. Soulcombe - Backed up his first up run with a solid 4th in the Underwood which was the second best Cups trial in the race so have to bump him up onto the leaderboard.

6. Duke De Sessa - Slots in here simply due to there not being a lot left and at $80 provides a bit of value should he find form.

7. Gold Trip - Has to carry 58.5kg but there doesn't look to be many chances getting in too light and he is a big strong horse so will carry the weight better than most.

8. Just Fine - Holds his spot in the rankings purely due to others coming out above him. Won the Metrop but Spirit Ridge would have beaten him at level weights which is not great heading towards the Cup. Didnt put him away like he was crying out for the 2 miles either.

9. Athabascan - We are in the weeds at his point but he seems a Francesco Guardi type from last year. Two wins this time in since being gelded have been decent and I think he goes to the Bart Cummings this week and wins and comes in from his $51 quote at the moment.

10. Valiant King - Really struggling to fill out a top 10 but even after his last start flop Valiant King needs to fill out the list above what is left with 2nds to Vauban and Desert Hero previously.

OUTS

Tower of London - Not coming
Desert Hero - Not coming
West Wind Blows - Almost certainly won't be in the race

If the Cup winner is already here they're almost certainly going around at Flemington on Saturday so should learn a lot from the Turnbull and the BC to a lesser extent

 

[PieBeast]

Fully aware he has his work cut out just getting a start but very surprised there's been absolutely no mentions of First Immortal.

 

[Jugada]

Fully aware he has his work cut out just getting a start but very surprised there's been absolutely no mentions of First Immortal.

You don't go from BM78 to Melbourne Cups in 6 weeks. Looks absolutely miles off it to me

 

[PieBeast]

You don't go from BM78 to Melbourne Cups in 6 weeks. Looks absolutely miles off it to me

Yeah fair enough, class the obvious query but he's a progressive type that absolutely walked in by close to 4 lengths easing up in the last 70/80 metres last start.

Also looks a decent chance to at least place at Caulfield and Kavanagh has been comparing him to Shocking.

 

[iluvparis]

Joseph O’Brien’s pair of Northern Hemisphere’d Valiant King and Okita Soushi. Chances of them running?

Certain to run

 

[FFB1]

Changes with weights, horses flopping, horses not coming and horses firming up too much.


1. Without a Fight - Great return in the Underwood sitting out the back and reeling off the fastest last everything pretty much on the clock. Goes straight to Caulfield now and if the track is good he will be very hard to beat in both. Hard to get too heavily invested in futures though as he will have pretty much none on a wet track but

2. Breakup - Goes up another spot with the Euro 3yos not running. Has got in fair at 55kgs but another who will need a firm track.

3. Vauban - Cant back him at the odds but he still has to slot in at around this position.

4. Francesco Guardi - Hasn't been seen since but goes up a couple rungs just because others are falling away despite not being that well treated at the weights with 54kg.

5. Soulcombe - Backed up his first up run with a solid 4th in the Underwood which was the second best Cups trial in the race so have to bump him up onto the leaderboard.

6. Duke De Sessa - Slots in here simply due to there not being a lot left and at $80 provides a bit of value should he find form.

7. Gold Trip - Has to carry 58.5kg but there doesn't look to be many chances getting in too light and he is a big strong horse so will carry the weight better than most.

8. Just Fine - Holds his spot in the rankings purely due to others coming out above him. Won the Metrop but Spirit Ridge would have beaten him at level weights which is not great heading towards the Cup. Didnt put him away like he was crying out for the 2 miles either.

9. Athabascan - We are in the weeds at his point but he seems a Francesco Guardi type from last year. Two wins this time in since being gelded have been decent and I think he goes to the Bart Cummings this week and wins and comes in from his $51 quote at the moment.

10. Valiant King - Really struggling to fill out a top 10 but even after his last start flop Valiant King needs to fill out the list above what is left with 2nds to Vauban and Desert Hero previously.

OUTS

Tower of London - Not coming
Desert Hero - Not coming
West Wind Blows - Almost certainly won't be in the race

If the Cup winner is already here they're almost certainly going around at Flemington on Saturday so should learn a lot from the Turnbull and the BC to a lesser extent

You couldn’t squeeze at least one of ABs last ditch French buys into your top 10? You know Luke will have both running top 6 in his preview, with both being legit winning hopes.

 

[iluvparis]

How couldn’t squeeze at least one of ABs last ditch French buys into your top 10? You know Luke will have both running top 6 in his preview, with both being legit winning hopes.

He had one too many AB horses in there already

 

[iluvparis]

My rankings

1 - WAF
2 - DDS
3 - Soulcombe

Can’t see any of the rest in Jugs list winning but we will find out more post Caulfield

 

[FFB1]

My rankings

1 - WAF
2 - DDS
3 - Soulcombe

Can’t see any of the rest in Jugs list winning but we will find out more post Caulfield

Changed your tune on the Richmond boys nag after the Underwood run.

DDS cups double still $751 SPB.

 

[iluvparis]

Changed your tune on the Richmond boys nag after the Underwood run.

DDS cups double still $751 SPB.

It’s a very distant third in the rankings and the current price is utter poison. It’s a lay on the day if it stays the price. I expect it to run on late for 3rd-6th.

If WAF doesn’t win I don’t expect to actually find the winner. It’s a lottery outside it

 

[demon_fanatic]

Im not a horse guy and my girlfriend is obsessed with Sushi so we are going to go Okita Soushi at 46.00 betfair haha for an Omen bet as mug horse punters... it seems ok longshot as it's 21 and 26 pointsbet fixed odds.. is it any chance of winning? I noticed it's won a few races in recent times... not the worst ?? also is Sharp and Smart out of the melbourne cup now due to the bad run he had?

or was he not even nominated in final noms despite his awesome form in march??

 

[iluvparis]

Im not a horse guy and my girlfriend is obsessed with Sushi so we are going to go Okita Soushi at 46.00 betfair haha for an Omen bet as mug horse punters... it seems ok longshot as it's 21 and 26 pointsbet fixed odds.. is it any chance of winning? I noticed it's won a few races in recent times... not the worst ??

None - its this years Camorra

 

[demon_fanatic]

None - its this years Camorra

oh ok why do you say that.. haha too late I took the 46.00 betfair just minimum bet lol

 

[iluvparis]

oh ok why do you say that.. haha too late I took the 46.00 betfair just minimum bet lol

The exact type of Irish plodder that is always too slow - got flogged by the third tier before heading out here - they don't bounce back from that

 

[demon_fanatic]

The exact type of Irish plodder that is always too slow - got flogged by the third tier before heading out here - they don't bounce back from that

haha damn.. oh well !!! what are your thoughts on Lunar Flare he had a gun win in in winter by 5 lengths, but first two starts back been near last or infact last but were they just being used for warm up/fitness as they are low in distance compared to the 3200???

I see he's 15.00 fixed odds and can get 27.00 betfair.. might go him as my value local hope.. unless you want to point me to a different local in double digit odds who can maybe upstage Vauban?

 

[iluvparis]

haha damn.. oh well !!! what are your thoughts on Lunar Flare he had a gun win in in winter but first two starts back been near last or infact last but were they just being used for warm up/fitness as they are low in distance compared to the 3200??? I see he's 15.00 fixed odds and can get 27.00 betfair.. might go him as my value local hope.. unless you want to point me to a different local in double digit odds who can maybe upstage Vauban?

Absolutely none - solid B-C grader but nowhere near enough class to win

WAF at $22 the fair is a must bet if you are not on already - it has lengths on everything around it in the market and is the only thing genuine overs in the top 15 in the market.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Absolutely none - solid B-C grader but nowhere near enough class to win

WAF at $22 the fair is a must bet if you are not on already - it has lengths on everything around it in the market and is the only thing genuine overs in the top 15 in the market.

is it definately aimed at melb cup but or just caulfield and then wait and see? without a fight?

"The Melbourne Cup is a little less likely unless he was thriving and running well in either of those races, but the two miles might just be a little query," he said.

 

[iluvparis]

is it definately aimed at melb cup but or just caulfield and then wait and see? without a fight?

Admittedly the trainer is a moron but can't see them knocking back a run if he runs well at Caulfield.

 

[plays tall 1]

Im not a horse guy and my girlfriend is obsessed with Sushi so we are going to go Okita Soushi at 46.00 betfair haha for an Omen bet as mug horse punters... it seems ok longshot as it's 21 and 26 pointsbet fixed odds.. is it any chance of winning? I noticed it's won a few races in recent times... not the worst ?? also is Sharp and Smart out of the melbourne cup now due to the bad run he had?

or was he not even nominated in final noms despite his awesome form in march??

Okita Soushi looks unders to me. Looked to have every chance last start in a G3 on good ground and was well beaten.

Is your girlfriend a doctor or screenwriter?? Because if she is, maybe she likes writing scripts
;-)

I think the best roughie is Scriptwriter at $201/$51 (TAB). He’s got just 50.5kgs and sits at 37 in the OOE but with the sort of attrition we’ve seen in the last 2 years (almost to the point of not getting a full field) I think he’s a good chance to get in.

I understand he’s been bought by Richard Pegum and others. Pegum’s a canny operator. He’s been transferred to Waller and there are always risks backing Waller horses in futures markets as Horse Miller can attest.

When trained by Aidan O’Brien he ran pretty respectably in a couple of Group 3s as a 2 year old and was then sold and put over the hurdles. Subsequently he’s had 3 races on the flat. The first of those was the Copper Horse Handicap where Vauban obliterated the field, but I think Scriptwriter’s run was on a par with that of Absurde who finished second and the gap between them is largely down to position in the run and the 1.36kgs Scriptwriter conceded.

His run when second to the very handy Hamish in the Silver Cup Stakes was very good.

His latest run in the Ebor was pretty good as it seemed he struggled to get clear running late in the race. First Yashin blocked his run on the rails and then he had to switch direction several times for clear running. Absurde won that race, and Scriptwriter gave him 0.9kgs.

In the Melbourne Cup Scriptwriter gets 2.5kgs from Absurde. Absurde is a ridiculous $15 with the TAB. I think there’s a good chance Scriptwriter beats him home.

The horse is no superstar, and I can't make the case for him to beat the top 5 or 6 in the market, but he’ll get the 2 miles and, with a month still before the race it’s likely that several of the faves will go amiss.

The place bet looks better than the win. Since he’s now with Waller, there’s a fair chance they pull the pin and set him for the Sydney autumn so I wouldn’t be piling in heavily even in place bets. He’s a good one for the bottom of tri’s and F4s if he gets to the race.

 

[iluvparis]

Couldn’t win or place if it started today. Flogged in the Slowbor and now with Waller who slaughters every import he gets. It’s 200/1 to start and 2000/1 to win. Picking a horse because the owner is ‘canny’ is a new low for this year

Worst call for a cup horse since Sheraz was being tipped up this time last year

DDS is easily the best long shot

 

[iluvparis]

But ignoring all that. It’s too late in the day for these kind of plays. When was the last winner to be 200/1 in October. Not even POP would have been that big

 

[plays tall 1]

But ignoring all that. It’s too late in the day for these kind of plays. When was the last winner to be 200/1 in October. Not even POP would have been that big

Last year’s 2 place getters, Emissary and High Emocean would probably have been around those prices in early October. Neither were on the radar.

The 2 preceding years saw Floating Artist and The Chosen One run fourth and both would’ve been around those prices in early October.

Duke De Sessa is getting an unusual prep.. Strange to have had only one run to this point. Has he had an issue? Got to be a huge question mark about him getting to the race. Also looks like he needs it soft. And the Lope De Vegas to have won over 2 miles could hold their AGM in a phone booth.