Racing Melbourne Cup 2023 ( no after the fact posts)

[Jugada]

Post Caulfield Cup rankings

1A. GOLD TRIP - Really good run in the Caulfield Cup beating everything bar the winner heading this way comfortably. Expect Flemington to suit him a lot better and presume he meets WAF slightly better at the weights now heading there. Has the class and is already proven running out a strong 2 miles in the Melbourne Cup. All going to be weather dependent as to whether he is the top seed or not. If the track has give in it then it really improves his chances and puts the slows on his main rivals.

1B. WITHOUT A FIGHT - Brilliant winner of the Caulfield Cup. Had a couple lengths on Gold Trip and 5 lengths + on everything else heading this way so very hard to see anything else bar GT being able to turn the tables at Flemington. Technically he is unproven at the trip but with 2800m form in England the expectation is that shouldn't be a problem out here. His wheels don't spin on a wet surface though so if we have a soft track then its almost rule a line territory. Firm track though and he is the one to beat.

3. SOULCOMBE - Complete barrier rogue. Walked out 8 lengths behind them in the Caulfield Cup and ran really well considering. Made up good ground in that race through the 800-600 and was on the back of WAF and GT but then got crowded for a bit of room in the straight before plugging home reasonably. I think 2 miles at Flemington will suit him perfectly and that was a decent Cup trial all things considered but he is just consistently shit at the barriers and is just getting worse so no reason to think he wont miss the kick poorly at Flemington again and have to pass the whole field.

4. VAUBAN - Valiant King didn't exactly frank the form at Caulfield but he finished around these sort of horses and Vauban did beat him pretty comfortably by a couple lengths so would expect him to be in this sort of area still.

5. BREAKUP - Average at best Caulfield Cup run and he just didnt seem fast enough or good enough to sustain speed over 2400m. I expect the bigger Flemington track and the 2 miles to both be better suited for him but not by enough to be able to make up the difference on those already rated ahead of him.

Doesn't seem any point in going beyond this for winning chances for me. It was a strong Caulfield Cup and that is THE form race for Flemington with the other lead ups looking pretty lackluster. For the sake of looking deeper ill just round out the list with the best roughies for the back end of exotics.

ASHRUN - Currently $120 was one of the better runs out of the Bart Cummings. Off the scene for pretty much 2 years his first up run this prep was really good sitting 3WNC and getting beat 3.75L over 1700m. Backed that up in the Bart Cummings running on really well from last clocking the best last 800, 600 and 400 whilst giving away 5kg to the first two.

DAQUIANSWEET JUNIOR - Currently $101. As previously stated in this thread he is basically on the same prep as last year where he ran a credible 6th in the Cup and gets in nice and light in the weights. His 3200m form in this country is good and generally runs above market expectations when getting out to a trip so can see him running past some more tired horses at the end.

SPANISH MISSION - Currently $65. As said above he had been pegged as an out and out 2 miler since he got here and he has had 6 runs since that Spring for 5 goes at 2000m or less and one go at 2400m on a wet track which he doesn't go on. He is older, locally trained and had injuries so obviously not near his best but he has a lot more class potential than anything else in the dregs and his last start Turnbull 8th has a lot of merit crossing the line with most of these types.

VIRTUOUS CIRCLE - Currently $55. Had no luck in the Bart Cummings when running into traffic everywhere. Think he finishes considerably closer with luck and meets most of that field better of fat the weights should they meet again at Flemington.

MORE FELONS - Currently $300. For the plays tall believers. Yet to be seen but on his European form he isn't really any worse off than a lot of others also making up the numbers and he is a considerably better price than most of them. He will stay the 2 miles no problems and gets in light at the weights. For comparison he took on Absurde in the Ebor in their last race start before coming here and he was 14/1 vs 7/1 in that race carrying basically a kilo more and now meets him 3.5kg better off for a 3 length defeat in that race so I think id rather spec MF at 15x the price.


Trouble with a lot of the roughies though is they are on the day F4 add ons and if they run well before the Cup the odds will likely be gone and if they run like shit you probably dont want to be with them...

 

[iluvparis]

Worth noting Emissary won the Heatherlie on the way to running second in the Cup last year.

Would not be looking for horses like Emissary and whatever country cups horse ran third last year as a way to find a cup winner

 

[plays tall 1]

It’s beginning to look like we’ll have only a small international contingent this year (again). Nominations are out on Tuesday, not that you’d know it from the lack of publicity from the VRC or RV (they’re too busy sending the actual cup on a ridiculous world tour and sending their staff on sweet trips to the great race meets of the world for the experiences of a lifetime).

The first Euro shipment arrives at the end of this month. You’d think that those keen to travel would already have made preliminary arrangements regarding flights and vets and so would have been discussed already.

We’ve seen most of the traditional Euro lead-ups already, so I’m not expecting many prospects to appear unexpectedly. Something may come out of the Irish St Leger or the Paddy Power Stakes next weekend. But otherwise I suspect that the international horses we’ve heard of will be the majority of the travellers.

Given the small international contingent, I think the better class locals will again be a chance this year, especially if they can beat the handicapper.

I think Soulcombe was exceptional yesterday, his closing sectionals were among the best on the day (albeit the race was run slowly but so were several other races). When that turn of foot is coupled with his undoubted staying capability, and a relatively light weight, I think he's a big player. Sometimes it’s not ideal to be so early ripe though. I think his autumn form is best discounted; it just does not compute with the form he’s shown outside of that. Not much skin on the bone at current prices when you allow for the vagaries of bad barriers, luck in running and the risk of setbacks between now and the race.

Goldman beat Soulcombe in the Roy Higgins and he’s done nothing wrong yet. Apparently he’ll run in the Feehan this week. Presumably he’ll be ridden conservatively as they don’t want to blow up their handicap (as Incentivise did). I certainly wouldn’t discount him but I think he’s well found at current prices based on his form to date.

Lunar Flare’s a very good staying mare. I suspect Francesco Guardi has her measure though, and probably a few others.

 

[iluvparis]

Exceptional. Plz. They went mad in front and he picked up the pieces late against d graders. This is miles off what is required. As we saw in the Autumn he is not up to it. There is absolutely zero reason to discount this form. Even if you do he has beaten Luncies and Flash Flood and been belted by Goldman. Not a single piece of cup winning form there

If that’s your thought process you should just be piling into WAF from now until the day of the race as he will gap all the locals if it’s dry

 

[FFB1]

Vauban to carry 54 at the most.

 

[plays tall 1]

Exceptional. Plz. They went mad in front and he picked up the pieces late against d graders. This is miles off what is required. As we saw in the Autumn he is not up to it. There is absolutely zero reason to discount this form. Even if you do he has beaten Luncies and Flash Flood and been belted by Goldman. Not a single piece of cup winning form there

If that’s your thought process you should just be piling into WAF from now until the day of the race as he will gap all the locals if it’s dry

I’d say that a stayer resuming over 1700m and running the second quickest last 200m and 400m of the entire meeting (behind Amenable) is exceptional, but each to their own.

 

[Jugada]

Soulcombe definitely ran well but he has too many average runs on the board last prep to see him go straight to the top of the market. There is just no chance I think he will ever be a betting proposition from now on

 

[diggo1]

Vauban to carry 54 at the most.

According to who? I would think he would carry 56 / 56.5

 

[iluvparis]

I’d say that a stayer resuming over 1700m and running the second quickest last 200m and 400m of the entire meeting (behind Amenable) is exceptional, but each to their own.

His first 1300/1500 must have been pretty dogshit then.

Times are meaningless anyway. He has just home against horses who will be 300/1 in a cup and he is $15 having got rolled in the autumn in races we know don’t measure up. He is an horrendous bet on any level and falling into him is some solid recency mug bias

 

[Jugada]

Vauban to carry 54 at the most.

How much do you expect Absurde to get? An Ebor winner hasn't been given less than 53 for over 10 years and Vauban beat it by 7.5 lengths

Previous Ebor winner weights

Moyenne Corniche 52
Willing Foe 52.5
Mutual Regard 55
Heartbreak City 53
Nakeeta 53
Muntahaa 55.5
Mustajeer 55
Sonnyboyliston 58

 

[TBellicious]

Exceptional. Plz. They went mad in front and he picked up the pieces late against d graders. This is miles off what is required. As we saw in the Autumn he is not up to it. There is absolutely zero reason to discount this form. Even if you do he has beaten Luncies and Flash Flood and been belted by Goldman. Not a single piece of cup winning form there

If that’s your thought process you should just be piling into WAF from now until the day of the race as he will gap all the locals if it’s dry

On what evidence did they go mad in front? Completely made up.

 

[FFB1]

How much do you expect Absurde to get? An Ebor winner hasn't been given less than 53 for over 10 years and Vauban beat it by 7.5 lengths

Previous Ebor winner weights

Moyenne Corniche 52
Willing Foe 52.5
Mutual Regard 55
Heartbreak City 53
Nakeeta 53
Muntahaa 55.5
Mustajeer 55
Sonnyboyliston 58

Beat it by 7.5 in a handicap race, surely isn’t considered for cup weights?

 

[iluvparis]

Beat it by 7.5 in a handicap race, surely isn’t considered for cup weights?

Yeah makybe divas handicap wins in the Melbourne cup weren’t considered for her subsequent Melbourne cup wins because it’s a handicap

 

[FFB1]

Yeah makybe divas handicap wins in the Melbourne cup weren’t considered for her subsequent Melbourne cup wins because it’s a handicap

“Subsequent” the key word there? Just think Vauban isn’t going to get a big weight off a 7.5 handicap win after what’s essentially unexposed form, and over jumps. Can you give him 56+ off one handicap win? If Absurde had run last in the Ebor would this be a topic? We soon see I guess.

 

[iluvparis]

“Subsequent” the key word there? Just think Vauban isn’t going to get a big weight off a 7.5 handicap win after what’s essentially unexposed form, and over jumps. Can you give him 56+ off one handicap win? We soon see I guess.

No the key point that her weight in Melbourne Cups after her first win were entirely based on her performance in Handicaps - you don't get a free pass for performances in them.

The recent history suggests the handicapper gives moderately performed Euros laughably high weights (see Spanish Mission/Sonnyboyliston/Deauville Legend etc).

Mutual Regards form was arguably worse - he was a pure low grade handicapper - and got 55

 

[FFB1]

No the key point that her weight in Melbourne Cups after her first win were entirely based on her performance in Handicaps - you don't get a free pass for performances in them.

The recent history suggests the handicapper gives moderately performed Euros laughably high weights (see Spanish Mission/Sonnyboyliston/Deauville Legend etc).

Mutual Regards form was arguably worse - he was a pure low grade handicapper - and got 55

Spanish Mission (for example) had exposed flats form though? Vauban doesn’t? If he gets 56+ it’s off one good flats win? I’m intrigued as to what the new handicapper (name escapes me at the minute) gives him, and for what reason/s.

 

[iluvparis]

Spanish Mission (for example) had exposed flats form though? Vauban doesn’t? If he gets 56+ it’s off one good flats win? I’m intrigued as to what the new handicapper (name escapes me at the minute) gives him, and for what reason/s.

Vauban has won a Royal Ascot handicap and a black type race in Ireland - how is that not exposed form. He also has an official rating on the flat of 114 (compared to 110 for Mutual Regard when he ran in the Melbourne Cup). The official rating in the UK will lean heavily into the handicappers choice of weight he is allocated. Sonnyboy was officially rated 115 and got 58.

The only change this thing gets 54 is if the new handicapper is a complete and utter moron

 

[Jugada]

Saint George out

 

[Jugada]

Beat it by 7.5 in a handicap race, surely isn’t considered for cup weights?

Not sure what it being a handicap has to do with anything? It will be 100% considered given that the 2nd horse will also be in the noms and won the Ebor

 

[iluvparis]

Saint George out

Shocked to be sitting here

 

[iluvparis]

https://www.vrc.com.au/media/eiabz5k5/2023-melbourne-cup-nominations.pdf

 

[iluvparis]

Wonder if DUKE DE SESSA is this year's Gold Trip who will be completely misplaced by connections even though it looks a genuine 2400m+ horse to me. Sportsbet have it at $61 so I am happy to have a small nibble at those odds.

 

[Hawksboy72]

Could it be the year Warning salutes in the big 2 miler.

On SM-S918B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[iluvparis]

Could it be the year Warning salutes in the big 2 miler.

On SM-S918B using BigFooty.com mobile app

I'll be on suicide warning if it does

 

[plays tall 1]

Carps previously said that he wouldn’t adhere rigidly to Euro ratings, especially when they’re based on a small sample size. It’ll be interesting to see what Hegan does. It’s going to be difficult to achieve all weight relativities reflecting the ratings while also meeting the following objectives:

• Gold Trip’s a group 1 winner and group 1 placed, so Vauban (the winner of a modest Irish group 3) needs to get substantial weight off him
• the handicappers seem reluctant to push topweight horses (in this case Gold Trip) far above the minimum topweight at declaration of weights (58kgs).
• there’s a stated objective to mark up the NH 3yos (to give them more weight) given their strong recent record
• Ebor winners seem to be quite heavily handicapped but this year’s winner, Absurde, was belted by Vauban by 7.5l.

In last year’s Cup Without A Fight was allocated 55.5kgs and his rating was 113. He was a group 3 winner at the time. The handicapper mumbled something about there being no natural topweight and so he’d essentially elevated all horses by a kilo. So perhaps Without A Fight would otherwise have got 54.5kgs. Vauban’s rating is 114.

My guess is that Gold Trip gets 58.5kgs, Vauban gets 55kgs and Absurde gets 53.5kgs. Valiant King and Tower of London are to race again before travelling I think, so their weights will depend on those performances.

It’ll be amusing watching local commentators, that usually bemoan Euros with high ratings but limited group race exposure getting into the race ahead of Australian group race horses, now arguing that Vauban should carry more weight.

 

[FFB1]

If you were Hegen, what do you give Vauban, iluvparis? I’d take 55, but gee whiz if he got any anything less the melts from locals will be delicious. Whatever your opinion of Mullins, if it’s deliberate he seems pretty good at this whole weights thing.