Traded Mitch McGovern [traded to Carlton in a three-way trade involving Sydney and McAdam]

[Windhover]

Firstly, you don't even know what type of player McGovern is, and what he can do, do you? Only Himmelberg and he are playing the same role. If you'd mentioned Walker, Jenkins, Fogarty and Himmelberg you'd be a lot closer.

Whether I have any idea or not what type of player MM is, thank you for agreeing with my point that the Crows have plenty of back-up in what he can serve up.

Also, I'm 99.9% certain McGovern will be a better player than McAdam. Already has a 50 game headstart and a decent highlight reel.

Sure, the second rounder allows for the risk that McAdam will not be as good as MM long term. But whatever the value of your 99.9% certainty (would that footy - or life - could provide such certainties) if the Crows want McAdam, and it seems they do, then presumably it is because it is thought McAdam has some prospects of being a decent AFL footballer. No?

 

[Windhover]

Not worth my time if you can't see it already. As I have already pointed out, you don't even know what type of player McGovern is. How can you know his value?

Although I have no way of knowing the value of your time to you, I have explained why it is necessary for you to explain why my win-win-win analysis is wrong. Strangely I cannot intuit what you refuse/fail to tell me.

 

[GreyCrow]

Although I have no way of knowing the value of your time to you, I have explained why it is necessary for you to explain why my win-win-win analysis is wrong. Strangely I cannot intuit what you refuse/fail to tell me.

Because your win-win analysis is flawed from the get go of points v actual pick.

Its like me saying the Crows give Carlton pick 53,54, 55, 57 , 59 and 71 and Carlton gives us pick 1 because the points add up to 1. Thats the misinterpretation over the value or worth of points.

 

[Laphroaig]

Forgot to add on the fact that you need to pay a premium for a player with 2 years on his contract.

Only if the receiving Club has a massive bone on over the player and is emotionally unable to play the get stuffed card.

 

[Windhover]

Because your win-win analysis is flawed from the get go of points v actual pick.

Its like me saying the Crows give Carlton pick 53,54, 55, 57 , 59 and 71 and Carlton gives us pick 1 because the points add up to 1. Thats the misinterpretation over the value or worth of points.

My win-win-win analysis (at post 8438) does require that the Crows get "reasonable compensation".

You posited a late 1st rounder (15-19 downgraded) as being reasonable and I agreed.

Pick 26 (if that is what the first of our second rounders now is after Lynch/Lysaght comp) is about 8 places short of a late first rounder. The difference between 1 and 3 last year was zero since, by all accounts, the Blues (and several other list managers) would have taken Dow anyway. The difference between 1 and perhaps 4 or even 7 this year might be zero since different clubs would have different assessments as to who they value up to that number of different players.

When you get out past the top 10 the variations become considerably marked. In particular for Crows a higher value is put on available SA players than would be put on them by other clubs. It must often (not always) be the case that the club with pick 26 gets the player they would have picked at 15 anywayy.

That is NOT to suggest 15 = 26. There is a difference. But NOT the difference your example of picks 53 etc for pick 1 suggests.

In my win-win-win analysis where Crows get 26 plus McAdam the risk/reward for the Crows is assessed as follows:

Q1 What is the chance that the Crows get at 26 the very player they wanted at say 15?

Q2 What is the chance that the player the Crows get at 26 turns out to be as good, or better, than the player that would have been picked at 15.

Does McAdam represent fair compensation for the answer to both those questions being no?

All I am saying is if the Crows want McAdam then presumably it is because the Crows think McAdam is a good chance to be a player of value to the Club. We know you can't get McAdam without the Blues because as it happens Gold Coast want him.

That sounds like a fair deal to me.

AND it has nothing to do with MM being a contracted player, needless to say.

 

[Drewie11]

Rumour on the Blues board-

Pick 24 and 26 AND McAdam for McGovern

If that is true then holy shit SOS can definitely touch his toes

 

[Mr_Moogle]

Rumour on the Blues board-

Pick 24 and 26 AND McAdam for McGovern

If that is true then holy shit SOS can definitely touch his toes

If they are keen on McAdam as rumoured, they'd take that deal surely.

 

[james Dean]

Rumour on the Blues board-

Pick 24 and 26 AND McAdam for McGovern

If that is true then holy shit SOS can definitely touch his toes

You mean exactly what Blues fans have been saying here for over a week? Didn't Ricciutto come out last week and say that 24 and 26 would not be enough? Now all of a sudden throw in an undrafted player and it's SOS being r*ped?

 

[Triniboy]

Rumour on the Blues board-

Pick 24 and 26 AND McAdam for McGovern

If that is true then holy shit SOS can definitely touch his toes

Those numbers are warm, it’ll be either one + McAdam.
Assume you’ll be 1st in the queue.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

You mean exactly what Blues fans have been saying here for over a week? Didn't Ricciutto come out last week and say that 24 and 26 would not be enough? Now all of a sudden throw in an undrafted player and it's SOS being r*ped?

On face value, I wouldn't have thought McAdam would have any trade value but none of us really know how much the Crows recruiters rate the second round of the draft and McAdam specifically.

I'm hearing rumours Mattner is pushing for McAdam because he rates him based on his time as Sturt's senior coach. Seems plausible.

 

[Drewie11]

You mean exactly what Blues fans have been saying here for over a week? Didn't Ricciutto come out last week and say that 24 and 26 would not be enough? Now all of a sudden throw in an undrafted player and it's SOS being r*ped?

Of course, the guy averages 12 games a year and 1 goal a game with what 12 possessions. Let’s say it is pick 26, 28 and say 40 for McAdam then that values McGovern at in between pick 5 and 6

 

[Windhover]

Rumour on the Blues board-

Pick 24 and 26 AND McAdam for McGovern

If that is true then holy shit SOS can definitely touch his toes

Not a rumour on our "Rumours only no discussion" thread where the ITK posters post.

There is a rumour that "MM deal will involve mutiple teams . . . The Swans 1 st likely to be involved."

OTOH I am quite sure SOS can touch his toes whether or not 26 and 28 and McAdam are swung for MM. He looks pretty fit and flexible.

 

[james Dean]

Of course, the guy averages 12 games a year and 1 goal a game with what 12 possessions. Let’s say it is pick 26, 28 and say 40 for McAdam then that values McGovern at in between pick 5 and 6

Adelaide will be sending a pick back as well to even out list numbers. And pick valuations don't work in that situation unless it is for bidding purposes. No team would trade pick 5 for 26, 28 and 40.

 

[Drewie11]

Adelaide will be sending a pick back as well to even out list numbers. And pick valuations don't work in that situation unless it is for bidding purposes. No team would trade pick 5 for 26, 28 and 40.

I’m just having a bit of fun, nobody knows what the deal is yet. I honestly think pick 19ish is his value so if it was pick 26 and Mcadam then I actually would have been happy with that.

We will just see how it plays out tomorrow if the rumours are true

 

[Windhover]

Correction.

Apparently the trade is done for 26 and 28 + McAdam. We get a future pick upgrade. Swans use 26 and 28 for Sydney's first (pick 13). A great deal for Crows imo. More than I would have rated MM but he will be very useful so no complaint.

 

[Jibroni]

I’m just having a bit of fun, nobody knows what the deal is yet. I honestly think pick 19ish is his value so if it was pick 26 and Mcadam then I actually would have been happy with that.

We will just see how it plays out tomorrow if the rumours are true

Pick 26 and a State League player for McGovern, really?

Unless your get and pick between 10 and 15 you keep him regardless of his motives to leave.

 

[Drewie11]

Pick 26 and a State League player for McGovern, really?

Unless your get and pick between 10 and 15 you keep him regardless of his motives to leave.

I honestly don’t think he would have been best 22 next year. He averages bigger all in games, goals and stats. The simple fact is he isn’t that good

 

[Laphroaig]

that values McGovern at in between pick 5 and 6

Would read better if it had Once Upon a Time In a Far Away Land in front of it.

 

[Drewie11]

Would read better if it had Once Upon a Time In a Far Away Land in front of it.

Just going by points value with everyone else seems to do in here.

So what does pick 26, 28 and let’s even say pick 50 (McAdam) rate McGovern on for pick points?

 

[Jibroni]

I honestly don’t think he would have been best 22 next year. He averages bigger all in games, goals and stats. The simple fact is he isn’t that good

Respectfully disagree, has the talent to be a very good player for the blues.

 

[Laphroaig]

So what does pick 26, 28 and let’s even say pick 50 (McAdam) rate McGovern on for pick points?

I neither know nor care.

 

[Tbonefreo]

Pick 24ish and McAdam is cheap as hell

 

[Drewie11]

Pick 24ish and McAdam is cheap as hell

Carlton board are running with pick 26, pick 28 and McAdam

 

[bmaurizio]

Rumour on the Blues board-

Pick 24 and 26 AND McAdam for McGovern

If that is true then holy shit SOS can definitely touch his toes

Let's see the completed trade details, but paint however you like McGovern is a gun and I'm stocked he's now a Bagger.
If I had to pick from forward line he's the one I'd take.

 

[Tbonefreo]

Carlton board are running with pick 26, pick 28 and McAdam

Pick 1 and 28 for gov and 7? I would have thought it would have been around that ball park. I dont care what anyone says the guy is a gun