My 2008 Brownlow Medal - Cooney and Harvey tie

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LondonCalling said:
Club by club:
Byron Schammer - 9
Matthew Pavlich - 8
Joel Selwood - 17
Lance Franklin - 10
Kane Cornes - 0
Leigh Montagna - 17
Luke Ball - 15
Nick Riewoldt - 3
Click to expand...

Thought that was a really good effort LC, just a few which I disagree with.

I have Schammer getting 2 and I can't see where the extra 7 are coming from. Pavlich should get about double that, he has been absolutely dominant for Freo. It would be a miracle if Selwood got 17 votes, he will poll in a maximum of 7 games. Franklin has played too many good games and polls too well to get just 10 votes. Kornes doesn't poll well but should still go close to topping the Port polling. Montagna and Ball by 14 and 12 to Riewoldt? Riewoldt polls decently and has had 5 BOGs from my count, how did you miss them?
 

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LondonCalling said:
Rd 13 I had 3- Ball, 2 - Harvey, 1 - Solomon. Upon another look at the reports, I reckon you're right. I'll change that to 3- Ball, 2- Riewoldt, 1- Harvey

Rd 14 I had 3 - Ball, 2 - B.Harvey, 1 - Dal Santo. Remember that game pretty well, am happy to stick with that one.

Rd 15, I went with 3 - Gram, 2 - Montagna, 1 - Milne. Attended that game. Milne carved us up. Gram probably would have been the most eyecatching, and Montagna had a hand in a lot of their goals. Thought Riewoldt got a lot of junk footy up on the wings that night.

Rd 16, I had Blake 3, Montagna 2, Hayes 1. How I overlooked Riewoldt here I'm not quite sure. I'll edit that to sneak him in at the expense of Hayes.

Rd 17 - Staker 3, Lynch 2, Braun 1. Can't say I'm feeling it for Riewoldt's game there.

Will keep looking.
Click to expand...

OK. Just remember that Riewoldt polled 14 votes last year, has been polling well for a few years, played well this year when the Saints were winning and has had more dominant games this year than what I can remember of him from other years.
 
Bubba_5 said:
Thought that was a really good effort LC, just a few which I disagree with.

I have Schammer getting 2 and I can't see where the extra 7 are coming from. Pavlich should get about double that, he has been absolutely dominant for Freo. It would be a miracle if Selwood got 17 votes, he will poll in a maximum of 7 games. Franklin has played too many good games and polls too well to get just 10 votes. Kornes doesn't poll well but should still go close to topping the Port polling. Montagna and Ball by 14 and 12 to Riewoldt? Riewoldt polls decently and has had 5 BOGs from my count, how did you miss them?
Click to expand...

Byron Schammer - 9
- From 16-18 I reckon he's in the votes, and will probably pick up 1-2 from Fri night's game as well

Matthew Pavlich - 8
- Again, not a great poller. Even in years when Freo have made the 8, he's struggled to get 10+. Reckon those oh-so-often misses/posters in the last quarter will come back to haunt him. Hasn't had enough games where he's kicked bags as a forward to poll, and hasn't had enough games that you'd consider dominate for a midfielder to poll, IMO.

Joel Selwood - 17
- I've got him polling in 7 games as well. 3 of them BOG's.

Lance Franklin - 10
- Got him polling in 4 games, 3 BOG's. Same thing as Pavlich, the misses will be fresh in the umpires' brain. Not to mention that when one Hawks midfielder has a good game, the way they play ensures there's 4-5 more not far behind.

Kane Cornes - 0
- His stats are shocking at times. 40 touches, and maybe 2-3 of them contested. Very few inside 50's or rebound 50's. Doesn't set up a lot of goals. The sort of games that he'd poll in, the wet slogs, Port haven't done so well in. I'm sure he'll poll somewhere though.

Leigh Montagna - 17
- Every year there's a smokey that comes from nowhere. He's mine. Prolific, flashy, gets a lot of goal assists and inside 50's.

Nick Riewoldt - 3
- See previous post
 
LondonCalling said:
Byron Schammer - 9
- From 16-18 I reckon he's in the votes, and will probably pick up 1-2 from Fri night's game as well

Matthew Pavlich - 8
- Again, not a great poller. Even in years when Freo have made the 8, he's struggled to get 10+. Reckon those oh-so-often misses/posters in the last quarter will come back to haunt him. Hasn't had enough games where he's kicked bags as a forward to poll, and hasn't had enough games that you'd consider dominate for a midfielder to poll, IMO.

Joel Selwood - 17
- I've got him polling in 7 games as well. 3 of them BOG's.

Lance Franklin - 10
- Got him polling in 4 games, 3 BOG's. Same thing as Pavlich, the misses will be fresh in the umpires' brain. Not to mention that when one Hawks midfielder has a good game, the way they play ensures there's 4-5 more not far behind.

Kane Cornes - 0
- His stats are shocking at times. 40 touches, and maybe 2-3 of them contested. Very few inside 50's or rebound 50's. Doesn't set up a lot of goals. The sort of games that he'd poll in, the wet slogs, Port haven't done so well in. I'm sure he'll poll somewhere though.

Leigh Montagna - 17
- Every year there's a smokey that comes from nowhere. He's mine. Prolific, flashy, gets a lot of goal assists and inside 50's.

Nick Riewoldt - 3
- See previous post
Click to expand...

Thanks for the reply. I have Schammer polling 2 in round 16, not polling in RD 17 and just missing out in RD 18. Can't see him getting past Palmer, Farmer and Carr on Friday night.

Pavlich has polled 15, 15, 14 the last three years and I'd expect him to poll similarly this year with Freo losing many games very narrowly and him being a major standout.

As I said, I think it would be a miracle if Joel got 17 votes out of these games due to the number of other Cats firing in that time like Enright and Bartel.

I have Buddy polling in 9 games, 7 BOGs. Behinds don't deter umpires.

You might be right about Kane with his stats but I think when you win as much of the ball as he does in comparison to teammates you are gonna poll votes and there have been games where he has used the ball pretty well.

Got no issue with Montagna being your smokey, he polls well from memory and gets plenty of the ball.

Still disagree with Roo but I don't think either of us are going to change our minds.:p
 
LondonCalling said:
Rd 13 I had 3- Ball, 2 - Harvey, 1 - Solomon. Upon another look at the reports, I reckon you're right. I'll change that to 3- Ball, 2- Riewoldt, 1- Harvey

Rd 14 I had 3 - Ball, 2 - B.Harvey, 1 - Dal Santo. Remember that game pretty well, am happy to stick with that one.

Rd 15, I went with 3 - Gram, 2 - Montagna, 1 - Milne. Attended that game. Milne carved us up. Gram probably would have been the most eyecatching, and Montagna had a hand in a lot of their goals. Thought Riewoldt got a lot of junk footy up on the wings that night.

Rd 16, I had Blake 3, Montagna 2, Hayes 1. How I overlooked Riewoldt here I'm not quite sure. I'll edit that to sneak him in at the expense of Hayes.

Rd 17 - Staker 3, Lynch 2, Braun 1. Can't say I'm feeling it for Riewoldt's game there.

Will keep looking.
Click to expand...

No way Dal gets 1 vote against North Melbourne, No WAY!
B.Harvey won't get 2 either. Simpson/M.Campbell were the best players for the Kangaroos on the night.

Gibbs will get Votes in Round 14 against us. it will go 3 - Gram, 2 - Gibbs, 1 - Riewoldt/Milne. (Montagna wasn't that good..Well at least not as good as those 4)

Riewoldt will defiantly get votes against Hawthorn. got us back into the game alogn with Blake. he kicked 6.0.
3 - Dal Santo, 2 - Riewoldt, 1 - Blake/Montagna/Hodge

Unlikely to poll any against WC, may sneak in 1 vote if lucky.

Won't poll any against PA.

May take 1 from the Collingwood Game.

Certain 3 Vs Fremantle, kicks 5.4

DOubt he will poll Vs. Adelaide.

Should get 1 vote Vs. Essendon.

That = 10 in last 8 games
 
Cats

Bartel 26
Ablett 25
Corey 18
Chapman 7
Johnson 6
Enright 5
Milburn 3
Kelly 2
Stokes 2
Selwood 2
Mackie 2
Mooney 2
Prismall 1

great job snomeD but i will pose this question to you.
geelong H&A season 21-1. big 86pt loss so say no votes there, otherwise there is 126 possible votes available for geelong players. i feel that geels dominance and winning margins would suggest they will pick up 110-115 IMO!??

does this mean a geel player surely will win?? although this didnt happen with essendon in 2000, i believe this means that a geel player will win, and that has to be bartel or ablett!!

attacking midfielders catch the eye!!

thoughts??
 
Re: My 2008 Brownlow Medal - Bartel Wins

Well i have now finished my brownlow medal and it panned out like this...
28 - J.Bartel
22 - G.Ablett
20 - J.Corey, S.Thompson, N.Riewoldt
19 - M.Richardson, B.Harvey
18 - D.Swan
17 - M.Boyd, D.Cox
16 - B.Kirk
15 - L.Franklin
14 - K.Cornes
13 - J.McViegh, A.Cooney
12 - S.Mitchell, B.Fevola, B.Deledio, N.Stevens
11 - J.Brown, M.Murphy, B.Gibbs, P.Medhurst, D.Giansiracusa, N.Van Berlo
10 - D.Cross, M.McViegh, L.Hodge, L.Davis, D.Petrie, R.O'Keefe
 
LondonCalling said:
Game by game:

Rd 1 vs. Port Adelaide:
Ablett - 24 touches, 8 contested, 10 inside 50's, 1 goal (2 votes)
Bartel - 15 touches, 9 tackles, 6 clearances, (0 votes)
Gave 3 to Corey and 1 to Cassisi

Rd 2 vs. Essendon:
Ablett - 34 touches, 7 contested, 5 clearances, 7 inside 50's, 2 goals (1 vote)
Bartel - 38 touches, 10 contested, 9 marks, 4 clearances, 5 inside 50's, 2 goals, 3 goal assists. (3 votes)
Gave 2 to Matthew Stokes

Rd 3 vs. Melbourne:
Ablett - 29 touches, 12 contested, 1 goal, 4 clearances (0 votes)
Bartel - 30 touches, 10 marks, 6 inside 50's, 3 goal assists (0 votes)
3- Chapman, 2 - Corey, 1- Wheatley

Rd 4 vs. St Kilda:
Ablett - 26 touches, 4 inside 50's, 4 tackles (0 votes)
Bartel - 31 touches, 9 marks, 4 inside 50's (3 votes)
2 - Selwood, 1 - Hunt

Rd 5 vs. Sydney:
Ablett - 35 touches, 17 contested, 3 goals, 9 clearances, 4 inside 50's (3 votes)
Bartel - 27 touches, 12 contested, 10 tackles, 5 clearances, 5 inside 50's, (0 votes)
2 - S.Johnson, 1 - Selwood

Rd 6 vs. Fremantle
Ablett - 15 touches, 10 contested, 6 tackles, 1 goal (0 votes)
Bartel - 21 touches, 9 contested, 7 tackles, (0 votes)
3 - Selwood, 2 - Sandilands, 1- Kelly
Click to expand...

Rd 1 - I think clearly 3 Corey. Lots of competition for 2 and 1. I'd say Ablett best case 2, worst case 0 - Likely 1. Bartel with 0
Rd 2 - Raffle between Stokes, Bartel and Ablett. Ablett best case 3, worst case 1 - Likely 1. Bartel best case 3, worst case 1 - Likely 3.
Rd 3 - Chapman, Corey, Bartel, Ling, Ablett should split the biccies. Ablett best case 2, worst case 0 - Likely 0. Bartel best case 2, worst case 0 - Likely 0
Rd 4 - Raffle. Bartel Best case 3, worst case 0 - Likely 2. Ablett Best case 2, worst case 0 - likely 0.
Rd 5 - Ablett clearly 3. Bartel best case 2, worst case 0 - Likely 2.
Rd 6 - Ablett 0, Bartel 0.

Quick likely totals after round 6:
1. Ablett 5 (Best case 12, worst case 4)
2. Bartel 7 (Best case 10, worst case 1)
 
The odds for the brownlow are up (TAB) for who polls the most for each team. The ones that stood out for me are Scott Thompson ($2.65) and Dane Swan ($2.15). Put those two together in a multi and you get $5.70. Not bad.

Also Judd at $1.70 (umpires love him) and Richo at $2 also represent good value. Roughies include Montagna at $11's, J.Mcveigh at $6...

What does everyone think about these bets?
 
Rd 7 - Ablett 0, Bartel - best case 2, worst case 0 - likely 1
Rd 8 - Ablett best case 3, worst case 2 - likely 3. Bartel best case 1, worst case 0, likely 0.
Rd 9 - Ablett best case 2, worst case 0 - likely 1. Bartel 0
Rd 10 - Ablett best case 3, worst case 2 - likely 2. Bartel best case 2, worst case 1 - likely 1.
Rd 11 -Ablett best case 3, worst case 2 - likely 3. Bartel 0.
Rd 12 - Ablett best case 3, worst case 2 - likely 2. Bartel 0.

Interim update after round 12
Ablett: 16 (BC: 26, WC: 12)
Bartel: 9 (BC: 15, WC: 2)
 

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Rd 13 - Ablett - best case 3, worst case 2 - likely 3. Bartel best case 1, worst case 0 - likely 0.
Rd 14 - Bartel - 3. Ablett 0.
Rd 15 - Bartel - best case 3, worst case 1 - likely 1. Ablett 0.
Rd 16 - Bartel - best case 1, worst case 0 - likely 1. Ablett 0
Rd 17 - Bartel 3. Ablett 0.
Rd 18 - Bartel - best case 3, worst case 2 - likely 2. Ablett 0.
Rd 19 - Bartel 0. Ablett 0.
Rd 20 - Ablett 3. Bartel 2.
Rd 21 - Bartel - best case 3, worst case 1 - likely 2. Ablett 0.
Rd 22- Bartel - best case 2, worst case 0 - likely 0. Ablett best case 2, worst case 0 - likely 1.

Overall:
Ablett: 23 (BC:34 WC: 17)
Bartel: 23 (BC: 36 WC: 14)
 
asanque said:
Quick best case scenario critique for Harvey:
Round 3 - 1 vote at best - Sewell and Lewis best 2 on ground.
Round 4 - 3 votes (from Roos board)
Round 5 - lets say 3 votes
Round 6 - 0 votes, only 3rd best on Roos board and that's not even counting Swans
Round 11 - 1 vote at best (Ablett and Mooney well in front)
Round 13 -Lets say 2 votes
Round 14 - Lets say 2 votes
Round 15 - lets say 3 votes
Round 16 - 3 votes
Round 17 - 1 vote from Roos board
Round 19 - 3 votes
Round 20 - 3 votes

I think 25 tops, although that is a best case scenario.
Click to expand...

Worst case scenario:
Rd 3 - WC 0.
Rd 11 - WC 0.
Rd 13 - WC 1.
Rd 14 - WC 0
Rd 15 - WC 1
Rd 16 - WC 2
WC - 17 votes
Likely:
Rd 3 - likely 0
Rd 11 - likely 0.
Rd 13 - likely 2.
Rd 14 - likely 1.
Rd 15 - likely 1.
Rd 16 - likely 2.
Likely: 19 votes.
 
So going over my top pollers per club, and the odds according to the TAB:

Adelaide: Thompson - $2.65
Brisbane: Black - $1.22
Carlton: Judd - $1.70
Collingwood: Swan - $2.15
Essendon: McVeigh - $2.50
Fremantle: Schammer - $26 (Anyone other than Pavlich/Palmer/Sandilands)
Geelong: Ablett - $2
Hawthorn: Bateman - $7
Melbourne: Bruce - $2.60
Kangaroos: Brent Harvey - $1.03
Port Adelaide: Domenic Cassisi - $12
Richmond: Richardson - $2.00
St Kilda: Montagna - $13
Sydney: McVeigh - $6 / O'Keefe - $3.10
Bulldogs: Cooney - $1.16
Eagles: Cox - $1.25

Harvey-Ablett-Bartel trifecta = $15
Ablett 25-26 votes = $5
Cooney Rd 11 Leader = $5
Top 5: Harvey $1.35, Bartel $1.35, Ablett $1.20, Cooney $2.15, Swan $6
Harvey polls 28-29 votes = $5.50
Winners Team: Kangaroos = $4
Geelong Poll 111-115 votes = $4
 
asanque said:
Rd 13 - Ablett - best case 3, worst case 2 - likely 3. Bartel best case 1, worst case 0 - likely 0.
Rd 14 - Bartel - 3. Ablett 0.
Rd 15 - Bartel - best case 3, worst case 1 - likely 1. Ablett 0.
Rd 16 - Bartel - best case 1, worst case 0 - likely 1. Ablett 0
Rd 17 - Bartel 3. Ablett 0.
Rd 18 - Bartel - best case 3, worst case 2 - likely 2. Ablett 0.
Rd 19 - Bartel 0. Ablett 0.
Rd 20 - Ablett 3. Bartel 2.
Rd 21 - Bartel - best case 3, worst case 1 - likely 2. Ablett 0.
Rd 22- Bartel - best case 2, worst case 0 - likely 0. Ablett best case 2, worst case 0 - likely 1.

Overall:
Ablett: 23 (BC:36 WC: 17)
Bartel: 23 (BC: 36 WC: 14)
Click to expand...

Top job asanque but the best case scenario for Ablett is quite generous, I reckon a max of 28 for him.
 
Bubba_5 said:
Top job asanque but the best case scenario for Ablett is quite generous, I reckon a max of 28 for him.
Click to expand...

Minor miscalculation has it at 34.
I doubt he'd hit 34 either, but this is more of a quick guide for brownlow night for anyway who follows the running action.

One thing in Ablett's favour though is he is very flashy as a player and should score higher then 23 I gave him as likely votes based on votegetting ability.
 
In terms of preparing it - not even close unfortunately. I spend too much time on here as it is. Back then, I was doing VCE and could afford to spend as much time as I like on it.

In terms of debating and discussing it though - probably 10x though. Which kinda helps to look over some things I have missed.

But chances are, come the end of Brownlow night, I'll probably just end up looking like a massive ******** who spent too much time on it anyway?
 

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My 2008 Brownlow Medal - Cooney and Harvey tie

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