Mythbuster - Blues will struggle without Fev

[Naughton]

That's exactly why. It's alot harder to restructure a forwardline/gameplan than you're making out.
It's alot easier to find a couple of forwards capable of 30goals a year, than it is to find one capable of 90+

I think we all realise Lloyd/Lucas didn't do a massive amount this year. Hopefully Gumbleton stays fit, we won't know.
Lovett wasn't a forward, though his goals will probably be the hardest to reproduce.
However I really don't want to get this into an Essendon vs Carlton debate, There's no need for it. Hurley

Exactly. That's EXACTLY what I'm saying.

Carlton isn't looking to replace Fev with another Fev. They need to structure the forward line to provide a more even spread of goalkickers. I believe that the talent is there to do so effectively... maybe not from Round 1 2010 - this might take a little time, but you look at season 2011 with Waite, Kruezer, Yarran, Henderson, Betts (who's only 21yo) Setanta isn't genuine quality, but he's 199cm and mobile and will take a tall defender, and if you leave him to his own devices, he's still capable of some damaging play... and that's a far cry from the days of Fevola and a bunch of C and D-Graders in Fisher, Cloke and Wiggins.

I reckon we'll be ok, and so will Essendon, by the way. I don't hold out a lot of hope for Gumby's body to stand up, but there'll be a good even spread of attacking goalkickers at windy hill for some time to come. Williams will enjoy not having to play third-banana to buddy and ruffy.

 

[morell]

Find it interesting that everyone seems to think we will be stuffed without Fev.
Just checked out the stats from the 13 wins we had in 2009. We would have won 9 of them if Fev had not even troubled the scorers. That's right in 9 of our wins, Fevs contribution was less than our winning margin.
The other 4 games, i think we would have won three of them if Fev wasnt there. Defeated Lions by 19 (Fev 5 goals), Freo by 15 (Fev 3 goals) and North by 10 (Fev 5 goals)
Brisbane win by 6 points when Fev kicked 8 would have been a loss.
Certainly interesting stats.

Ignoring all the points about needing a forward target for a good football structure, ignoring all the goals he was involved in but didn't kick himself, ignoring all of that, he still "won" 4 games for you last year using your logic.

So its the difference between say top 4? With 15 wins and missing the finals with 11?

IMO Carlton made a very brave and correct decision. The reason it was brave was because it will adversely affect their on field performance in 2010.

 

[Spartan]

^^ True colours revealed.

We need a bit of luck next season, but we have plenty of quality in the side still. An excellent midfield, a sound defence (despite people thinking that losing our CHB and FB last year made no difference) and an athletic ruck combination. We just need someone to stand up as a focal point up forward.

It might not happen for us or we could surprise. One thing is for sure, a popular consensus on BigFooty won't be the deciding factor. The popular vote here is that we were bluffing about trading Fev too. They don't know everything. Time will tell ...

Thats because the public didn't know what really happend at the Brownlow.

 

[Monkey King]

Will miss the finals IMO.

This is a real possibility, however it is not the given some take it to be.

As TG mentioned, the Blues went to Fev 335 times with the next best 51. With 105 of those resulting in goals, it is a fairly good percentage return and no doubt it is going to be difficult finding someone who can match that. However those 335 deliveries will be directed to somebody else who will score at some point, albeit fair to expect it at a lower percentage return. Still it's not like we can make simple minus Fev's 5 goals against NM and we would have lost calculations and expect accuracy.

There is a lot of improvement left in Carlton's young players across the board. They are talented and developing and could very well be delivering the ball into the F50 more often and with better direction than last year.

Additional to the goals contributed are the goals defended. It is not unreasonable to predict improvement in a young backline that is still learning to play together. Jamison's season was decimated by injury as was Waite's - should he not play forward in 2010 - while Bower is only 20yo and has a lot of improvement in him. Throw in 20yo Austin who showed plenty before injury and it is reasonable to predict 20-30 odd goals could be saved going the other way.

Lastly there is the unknown factor. No one would have been predicting Tippett to come out and contribute 69 goals last season. Perhaps Henderson has a big year, or Kreuzer/Hampson makes a name as a forward. Austin has played forward as a junior and may be used to get bigger bodies in the F50. All young guys with potential that may or may not be realised in 2010.

I am personally enjoying the predictions of gloom by opposition supporters and have a feeling the young Blues may just come out and surprise a few people.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Thats because the public didn't know what really happend at the Brownlow.

Actually the rumours were on here and out there. They thought we were bluffing so we could ignore his behaviour but pretend we tried to do something about it. They were told for more than a week that this time it was different because Fev had done something worse. They still opted to think we lacked the guts to do it. They also said we would be better off without him and as predicted as soon as he goes, they straight away tell us how poor we are going to be and have a laugh.

Fairly disingenuous bunch of detractors we have. They never cared about Fev or the club's future, they were just hoping we would offload him so we could be weakened.

 

[Fastback]

The Blues should be able to cover Fevola...he was just the finisher.
The improvement in '09 came from the midfield and defence.
The game plan will have to change slightly to orchestrate kicking a winning score, but I don't think it's necesarily a bad thing.
They jumped a few sides last year and like any "up and comer", the following year will be a lot tougher. Clubs work out game plans and key playmakers pretty quickly. They would have had to change, tinker and improve on some areas anyway.
Carlton had a pretty one dimensional fwd setup and strategy with Fevola but with Waite, Kruezer, Yarran, Fisher, Betts & co should still cause enough headaches if the quality of supply is there.
Would also expect a bigger focus on defensive pressure, esp now that the big sook won't be sinking the morale of teammates with his CBF attitude when it wasn't falling for him.

 

[Fastback]

double post

 

[shiva25]

The Blues should be able to cover Fevola...he was just the finisher.
The improvement in '09 came from the midfield and defence.
The game plan will have to change slightly to orchestrate kicking a winning score, but I don't think it's necesarily a bad thing.
They jumped a few sides last year and like any "up and comer", the following year will be a lot tougher. Clubs work out game plans and key playmakers pretty quickly. They would have had to change, tinker and improve on some areas anyway.
Carlton had a pretty one dimensional fwd setup and strategy with Fevola but with Waite, Kruezer, Yarran, Fisher, Betts & co should still cause enough headaches if the quality of supply is there.
Would also expect a bigger focus on defensive pressure, esp now that the big sook won't be sinking the morale of teammates with his CBF attitude when it wasn't falling for him.

I would say Fev is more than just a finisher.Anyone who is capable of kicking 100 goals in a season and can win games off his own boot is a big loss. I cant see where Carlton are going to get an extra 90 odd goals a season that they would otherwise get if Fev was there

 

[Spartan]

Actually the rumours were on here and out there. They thought we were bluffing so we could ignore his behaviour but pretend we tried to do something about it. They were told for more than a week that this time it was different because Fev had done something worse. They still opted to think we lacked the guts to do it. They also said we would be better off without him and as predicted as soon as he goes, they straight away tell us how poor we are going to be and have a laugh.

Fairly disingenuous bunch of detractors we have. They never cared about Fev or the club's future, they were just hoping we would offload him so we could be weakened.

At that point thats all they were.. rumours. There were no articles in the paper or on the news.

The reality is CFC would have known what happend. Instead of sacking him they put him up for trade. They even went as far as saying if a suitable trade couldn't be found that Fevola would be a Blue next year.

In reality he was never going to be a Blue next year. Once everything came out into the open they would have had to sack him, especially given the song and dance about him being on his last chance.

CFC did the right thing by bullshitting and trying to maximise his trade value and in the end did pretty well getting an early pick and a young KPP.

Do you honestly expect opposition supporters to care about CFC or Fev?

I have to admit i enjoyed Fev being traded only because in 3 years when Judd retires and you guys haven't won another flag i can tell MK i told you so.

 

[Hodgepodge]

Even if Henderson kicks 50 goals a year, it's a big loss and I'm not too sure how they're going to make it up.

Every forward line has a star, hell even West Coast has LeCras, Melbourne has Jurrah, Geelong have Steve Johnson.

Carlton's forward line 'star' is Eddie Betts, and you have to wonder how Fevola's absence will impact him, too.

 

[Spartan]

Even if Henderson kicks 50 goals a year, it's a big loss and I'm not too sure how they're going to make it up.

Every forward line has a star, hell even West Coast has LeCras, Melbourne has Jurrah, Geelong have Steve Johnson.

Carlton's forward line 'star' is Eddie Betts, and you have to wonder how Fevola's absence will impact him, too.

I believe this was Eddie's reaction when told of the news that he was the #1 man in the CFC forward line.

 

[gbatman]

Is every one unaware how good Waite is as a main forward target?

 

[Kennedy_17]

wouldnt kennedy be good right now.

 

[deledio7]

Is every one unaware how good Waite is as a main forward target?

Are you aware that Waite has never been used a main forward target?

 

[Thrawn]

I think a lot of Carlton supporters are underestimating the impact this will have on our side.

We're not just going to lose that score contribution, but also the defensive pressure. He laid a considerable amount of tackles, moreso than any other key forward. This work created a lot of opportunities for Betts in particular... and it will most definitely be missed. You can't really blame Fevola for our midfield not considering other options, and opting to kick it to him instead when he is triple teamed.

The only way we'll cover his loss is if the other forwards improve their output significantly, with the midfield chipping in. Which will mean we need Judd and Kruz to kick more goals. Waite coming back will be handy, but you have to remember he is coming back from a knee reconstruction so it might take some time for him to find some confidence back. I can see one positive though, is in that we'll be more unpredictable. Hopefully the mids will be a little smarter to size up their options - too many times I've seen them ignore free forwards only to kick it to Fev and a nest of defenders.

I think there will be an adjustment period next year, which will see us possibly lose more games. Fev was one of the reasons why we made the finals in the first place, you can't just ignore it because he's an idiot who drank his career at one club away.

 

[Cheeseman]

Sorry Thrawn, Fevola averaged 2.2 tackles per game in 09, Franklin averaged 2.3 per game, either Bud was underrated in his defensive pressure, or you're overrating Fev's contribution, which is it?

 

[Nankervis brothers]

Carlton have relied too heavily on Fev over the years. Their movement forward is extremely predictable as a result. Anyway, its an anachronistic myth that you need a 'champion' leading/tall FF to create a winning score. Look at Geelong. They don't have one, yet they are the highest scoring team three years on the trot.

 

[cormick]

Have I completely mis-read the OP or has it completely disregarded the rd 16 game where Carlton beat Richmond by 20 (ish) points and Fev got 9?

 

[Bigeasy]

Is every one unaware how good Waite is as a main forward target?

Correct me if i'm wrong but Waite has played in the forward line for extended periods of time but with mixed results. He has found his best form in defense. Why is he part of the solution to your forward line now?

 

[Dazb86]

Carlton have relied too heavily on Fev over the years. Their movement forward is extremely predictable as a result. Anyway, its an anachronistic myth that you need a 'champion' leading/tall FF to create a winning score. Look at Geelong. They don't have one, yet they are the highest scoring team three years on the trot.

I'd have to agree with this although geelong haven't been the top scoring team 3 years in a row.

 

[Monkey King]

Correct me if i'm wrong but Waite has played in the forward line for extended periods of time but with mixed results. He has found his best form in defense. Why is he part of the solution to your forward line now?

True in part. Waite has his bags of 5 up forward, but never found consistency. Notably his bag of 5 was when Fev was out of the side and players actually directed the ball to him.

Waite didn't pick up form the moment he was shifted back either. Rather it was something he has worked towards. Whether this consistency reflects where he got to as a player or his position down back may become more obvious next year.

My preference is to see him take the wing, as I think he's far more damaging running forward than leading up to the ball.

 

[blues_future]

There are so many variables here, but common sense and history will tell you Carlton will struggle for some period in at least the short term.

It all depends on how quickly they change their overall game plan and forward functions. Long term, they will be fine you'd think. Henderson should be a fine player. Having been so reliant on Fev, also led to opposition teams working the whole defense around him.

Often, Fev was looked after by 2-3 players, but not only that the whole back lines would work in trying to stop him, interrupt his leading space etc.This will mean the whole Carlton forward line will now each have added difficulty with a more genuine 1-1 environment, without their opponents having one eye on them and the other on position re Fev.

Of course in time they will be less and less predictable, and this will be a good thing.

From an outsider, I see the timing as not ideal for them. The quality of their current other options in Cloke, O'halpain and Fisher is very low. Henderson has only kicked a couple goals in his life - he is still probably 2 years away at best you'd think. Waite is coming off a Knee - I am under no illusions (especially after seeing Daveys season this year) with Hille that we cant expect too much from these guys in their first year back. The other interesting one i find is Kruezer - Carlton fans seem to think they are in a position with Warnock to simply free Kreuzer up - for one Warnock's body does not give any confidence that can be done, and secondly the guy hasnt even played a seasons worth (22) of games in his career yet. To expect him to just come in and take over ruck duties is a little optimistic I would have thought. I think they need Kreuzer in the ruck more than they realise. Not only that, Kruezer's main strength is his athleticism as a ruckman, at ground level and general mobility. Coming up against a lot faster and mobile Key defenders will nullify much of these advantages. He may not be the forward answer it seems.

It may just be a season down, then a rebound. As much of this can change a season later. Waite will be better, Henderson and Warnock another year in the system etc. Next year may be hard, though.

Wow, this post is spot on, and from a Bomber suporter no less!
Agree with comments on Warnock and Big K. K is great but looks a natural ruckman to me. Do we want him to develop into a star ruck or a battling CHF. Still I think he will have to do some work at CHF and see how he goes.

Reality is Fev is a moron who has sublime skill. He is selfish, immature and impossible to direct but he is a super talent and they can't be easily replaced. The WCE post Cousins / Judd comparison is valid. We will go back a bit to go forward. We don't have any class tall forwards about to burst on the seen (I hope Henderson is good but may be CHB). We will have a much better disciplined team without Fevs brilliance and without his destabilising brain fades and sooks. But clearly on the field we won't be as good. No side who loses their second most talented player can easily cover. Still he won't be as much of a loss as a Jon Brown or Riewoldt cesause he totally lacks team orientation and leadership.

 

[Thrust]

Is every one unaware how good Waite is as a main forward target?

Are you unaware that Waite averages 1 goal a game throughout his career?

The same as Michael Hurley coincidentally.

 

[Slattery_20]

They'll be worse for a year then (if they're any good as a club ) fill in his spot(s)* and be a lot stronger without his attitude.

* - I noted during one of the Carlton Essendon games this year - Fev pointing at Cloke, shouting at him where to stand: approximately 4 metres behind the goal line - ie out of his space. If the Blues can find 3 reasonably good forwards, it'll be a better, more potent set-up than 1 superstar telling 2 others to get the F out of his way. It'll certainly make it easier for Fisher etc to find the ball, altho I'm not convinced Setantrum & Cloke are good enough

 

[coup de grace]

Does this mean Mitch Robinson is Kari?

Are you confident you will win more games than Carlton next year without the 76 goals Lloyd, Lucas and Lovett kicked this year?

difference is we picked up a proven goalkicker, and two young forwards who'll pick up some fitness this pre season, plus we have ryder/hurley/hille who are all capable of playing forward and kicking a bagfull of goals