Opinion Non-Crows AFL 11

[119others]

What in the world do our neighbors do down the road?

On the one hand - they have to keep going. Made the finals 4 out of 5 years with ladder positions of 1,2,11,3,2. They are in a window to challenge again for another flag in 2025. Houston will be a loss, but Luko will be a great 2nd forward addition and is a harder position to fill than a rebounding half back.

Their losses in the finals were significant, but then again look at Brisbane's across 4 finals seasons from 2019 - 2022.

2019 - Finish 2nd - loss home QF by 47. Lose home SF by 3
2020 - Finish 2nd- Win home QF by 15. Lose home prelim by 40
2021 - Finish 4th- Lose neutral QF by 33. Lose home SF by 1
2022 - Finish 6th - Win home EF by 2, Win home SF by 3, Lose prelim by 71.

The size of the losses by Port in the finals are the biggest concern. They have averaged losses by 50+ points. The Lions also looked shocking in finals against top teams losing by 71,33, 40 and 47.

Are they close enough and just need to keep plugging and away and hope that a good run of form towards the end of the season is enough. Getting rid of Ken - does it destabilize what is clearly a top 4 list? Getting rid of Ken - does it bring in someone with a new way to approach finals and change their finals form.

Tough to know what is the right answer IMO.

If clearly a top 4 list why are they 10th fave for flag?

Kane thinks they miss finals next year and I agree. Narrow band of elite mids and a couple of decent flankers and then a load of shit.

Going forward we will win 7 or 8 of the next 10 showdowns IMO. We are moving past them next year and staying there

 

[AFC979810]

If clearly a top 4 list why are they 10th fave for flag?

Betting odds mean sweet F all as an indicator for success. The betting agencies have Hawthorn 3rd at $7 to win the flag.

Port are Equal 10th with Geelong.

They are clearly a top 4 list because they have made the top 4 in 4 of the last 5 years including the last two.

Kane thinks they miss finals next year and I agree. Narrow band of elite mids and a couple of decent flankers and then a load of shit.

Good for Kane. He also suggested that Port were winning the Jack Watts trade.

Going forward we will win 7 or 8 of the next 10 showdowns IMO. We are moving past them next year and staying there

Very well may happen. Very well may not happen.

 

[119others]

Betting odds mean sweet F all as an indicator for success. The betting agencies have Hawthorn 3rd at $7 to win the flag.

Port are Equal 10th with Geelong.

They are clearly a top 4 list because they have made the top 4 in 4 of the last 5 years including the last two.



Good for Kane. He also suggested that Port were winning the Jack Watts trade.



Very well may happen. Very well may not happen.

Will agree to disagree re odds if you think that way about them being meaningless. Top 4 faves for flag - Lions, Hawks, Blues, Giants are just a smidge better chance than the bottom 4 of Tigers, Kangas, Eagles and Saints IMHO but perhaps you vehemently disagree

 

[Cromulant]

Betting odds mean sweet F all as an indicator for success. The betting agencies have Hawthorn 3rd at $7 to win the flag.

Port are Equal 10th with Geelong.

They are clearly a top 4 list because they have made the top 4 in 4 of the last 5 years including the last two.



Good for Kane. He also suggested that Port were winning the Jack Watts trade.



Very well may happen. Very well may not happen.

If they lose Houston, they arent making top 4.

Also, theres teams behind them who will pass them IMO. Giants might go backward a bit too given their departures.

 

[1970crow]

Most pubs outside of the CBD are there days

That's why we don't venture to the burbs when up there.

 

[AFC979810]

Will agree to disagree re odds if you think that way about them being meaningless. Top 4 faves for flag - Lions, Hawks, Blues, Giants are just a smidge better chance than the bottom 4 of Tigers, Kangas, Eagles and Saints IMHO but perhaps you vehemently disagree

Port were 9th in 2023 according to the bookies to win the flag. Finished top 4.
Port were 7th in 2024 according to the bookies to win the flag. Finished top 4 - Interestingly enough they had us 8th.

 

[SC26]

Sort of.

Fagan is a much better tactician.

As made evident by him having a 7-1 record over Stinkley ever since Lions became good post-2018. Average winning margin 41 points, they don't belong in the same sentence

 

[119others]

If they lose Houston, they arent making top 4.

Also, theres teams behind them who will pass them IMO. Giants might go backward a bit too given their departures.

Yep. And remember they played the equivalent of team 12th for EACH of their 6 double up games. Softest draw and only one (8th based Blues) finals team twice. Lots of close victories (5/6 many against bottom non finalists) mean they were never a second ranked team in terms of quality. I was adamant BEFORE the finals they would bomb and they did