November daily punt

[PureFooty]

Baaaaang, cheers for the tip

 

[terminators]

Whats wrong with Terry McCauliffe?

Nothing, goes well

Just give him the main gig

 

[rideclutch]

Geez, Mick O'Leary places his horses beautifully.

Naturally I sat there and watched it win without a cent on

 

[Blueboy3]

Can pistolier turn the tables with the relative weight advantage Drakescoffeecake

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Trainer seems to think so, but thought it was a shoe in last start and Lucky Symbol just breezed straight past. Good horse that Lucky Symbol, I'll be impressed if pistol can turn the tables. $5.50 fixed atm is generous, will probably start closer to 10's

 

[davis_756]

These jockeys cant seem to stay aboard in recent weeks, seen more race falls in the past few weeks then I can remember seeing in a long time

 

[Gavin Excell]

^^

Yes, well when jockeys "fall" off in the first 20 metres it does raise eyebrows.

 

[Cupper]

Very keen on Daybreak in the next at mooney valley, been smashed in from 9's to $4s and money still coming.
Get on

 

[PertRoosOsborne]

Very keen on Daybreak in the next at mooney valley, been smashed in from 9's to $4s and money still coming.
Get on

Nice one!!!

For shits and giggles in the last I say....

Sinhala the place @ $6

Duet the win @ $14

Backing the jockey not the horse

 

[Gavin Excell]

nice with Duet

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Duet! Too bad I didn't see it prior!

$75 EW on pistol tomorrow and that'll do me til next week

 

[King Of Money]

Question: What value is 'early money' as a guide to a horse's chance.
I know early markets are variable and volatile but this caught my eye.
Caulfield R7 No. 2 LuckyI'mBarefoot
Tatts Tote $1.50 win ($3700 in win pool) Out from $1.20.
Tatts Fixed $19 win.
So some solid (and unexpected) early money for it on the Tatts tote.

Sportsbet Open Price $4.50 - no fluctuation.
Sportsbet Fixed $18

Just seems such a big differential between tote/fluctuating price and the respective fixed prices and wondering what we as punters can read into it. (I know there are some experienced heads on this forum.) Would also be interested to hear from anyone who's looked at the race form and come up with their own price.

PS: I've had a little nibble already @ the $19 e/w for interest sake, but haven't looked closely at the form yet.

 

[Slipps]

loaded up on Loveyamadly @3.50 thats all for today

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Question: What value is 'early money' as a guide to a horse's chance.
I know early markets are variable and volatile but this caught my eye.
Caulfield R7 No. 2 LuckyI'mBarefoot
Tatts Tote $1.50 win ($3700 in win pool) Out from $1.20.
Tatts Fixed $19 win.
So some solid (and unexpected) early money for it on the Tatts tote.

Sportsbet Open Price $4.50 - no fluctuation.
Sportsbet Fixed $18

Just seems such a big differential between tote/fluctuating price and the respective fixed prices and wondering what we as punters can read into it. (I know there are some experienced heads on this forum.) Would also be interested to hear from anyone who's looked at the race form and come up with their own price.

PS: I've had a little nibble already @ the $19 e/w for interest sake, but haven't looked closely at the form yet.

Someone maybe taken a chunk at fixed odds, and trying to shorten by whacking the tote and hoping to get some mug money to follow, lay off for a free bet? Strange regardless.

As to the horse's chances, I'd say it's slight overs @ 19, but only slightly. It is down in grade, but the claim is only bringing his weight in line with the rest of the field. Only 2 attempts at the distance for no result, and does not seem to like Caulfield that much, especially today with the rail out 13m and his pattern will probably see him midfield and on the rail, will have to ride for luck.

I'd say Marden and Initiator are at their correct price. I'll have a little nibble @ 19 place for Rock Robster because that's silly overs and I have a slight crush on Kayla Nisbett

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Any rain about? Haven't looked at the stats but I've always related the horse to wet tracks, think it's won it's last couple on heavy. The distance remains the biggest issue for it IMO, especially when coming up against some proven stayers. Passing unless there's rain and might jump on the place

 

[davis_756]

Morphettville Race 1 #1, concern is getting too far back and leaving too much to do. $400 Win $100 Place

 

[wcadams88]

Morphettville Race 1 #1, concern is getting too far back and leaving too much to do. $400 Win $100 Place

The long road? Is there any reason you think it may win

 

[davis_756]

The long road? Is there any reason you think it may win

Yeah The Long Road, ignore her last start. The favourite is a Mildura Maiden winner, probably the worst TAB races in Victoria by some distance.

 

[PureFooty]

Y

Yeah The Long Road, ignore her last start. The favourite is a Mildura Maiden winner, probably the worst TAB races in Victoria by some distance.

Hope not just doubled Lord of the sky into the fav @2.39 for what I think is free money

 

[davis_756]

Y
Hope not just doubled Lord of the sky into the fav @2.39 for what I think is free money

I hope its free overs for me, off their 1st up runs (Mildura maiden win vs 5L off G3) it wouldn't be 1.65 v 31

 

[HurlsMeister18]

Caulfield

R3 LADY ANTEBELLUM E/W
R6 HORACIO E/W
R8 GET PRONTO E/W

RANDWICK

R3 TENACITUS WIN
R8 MY DESTINY E/W


Ascot

R2 CHINETTI E/W will have a pretty big go here
R3 VITAL EDITION E/W
R4 GUARDLOCK E/W
R5 KERRIFIC WIN
R6 LOOKING AHEAD E/W
R7 ROSE OF CHOICE WIN and roving banker with #5,8,9,10,12 in my multiples.

R8 LUCKYGRAY to give this field a smacking and go back to back in the Kingston Town Classic, lack of pace in the race a little concern but I think MR MOET will change it up today and go forward from a wide barrier and I think ROHAN will try and roll along. ITSAHYMN is getting support but this is a big step up and his times don't compare very well against LUCKY'S.

R9 NORTHPACE E/W Promising stayer resuming here over 1400 but I think will swamp them off a good pace. Great E/W value for an up and coming horse.


Hail mary multi MISSY LONGSTOCKING into THE WHITE HOPE into LUCKYGRAY @ 10 to 1.

 

[davis_756]

That was terribly dissapointing

 

[Stazza71]

R2 CHINETTI E/W will have a pretty big go here

Bang!!

Cheers for the tip!!

 

[HurlsMeister18]

R2 CHINETTI E/W will have a pretty big go here

Bang!!

Cheers for the tip!!

Thanks mate, only thing I have cleaned up on really today, although I just nailed Race 7

 

[iluvparis]

Luckygray desperately unlucky for mine. No pace on and I think the jockey completely went to sleep out the back there and took to late to get going.