NRL 2011

[Coledinho]

Ive went with the Souths. Lost a few through injury but Inglis is playing and I think Morris is a much bigger out than everyone realises. Bulldogs dominated Wests because there forwards had a clear size advantage over them. Dont have the same luxury today.

Good value at 2.45

 

[jefffff34]

+30 units with two games to go on my first try scorer bets.

FWIW, I'm counting the Quinn bet even though I won't actually get money for it for my stats assessment. There have been three TAB bets where I haven't been able to get down to place the bets on but am still counting them as losses in my analysis even though I'm not actually losing the money. Evens itself out in the end I guess.

David Simmons @ $13, Anthony Quinn @ $11, Chris Lawrence @ $12 and Rhys Wesser @ $17 so far this round.

Spewing Simon Mannering was the second try scorer last night though, had him at $41.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

What are you basing your analysis on Hoggy? A quick idea of what you're doing would be interesting.

 

[the egg]

Another upset today...Manly too good apparently.

 

[jefffff34]

What are you basing your analysis on Hoggy? A quick idea of what you're doing would be interesting.

It's very statistically based and uses career tries ratio, and also incorporates recent form. I then formulate the teams chances of scoring first, and work out true odds of each player (I don't go near named bench players). Then I place a unit on each player that I believe are overs.... Hence 6 players in quite a few games, but only 2 for the Newcastle game.

Got Tony Williams at $17 too! +41 units for the round with one to go!

 

[dr nick]

Got Tony Williams at $17 too! +41 units for the round with one to go!

Great odds for T-Rex playing in the centres

 

[jefffff34]

Sitting on +41 units coming up to the final game of the round...here are the selections...

Brett Morris $8 @ Sportsbet (was $7 and I went to put the bet on and the odds went up! My "real" odds that I came up with for him are $3.68)
Jason Nightingale $9 @ Centrebet
Mark Gasnier $13 @ TAB
Matt Cooper $13 @ Sportsbet
Nathan Gardner $15 @ Sportsbet
Ben Creagh $26 @ Sportingbet

Besides Gardner, no other Sharks player came anywhere near close to qualifying, while Nathan Fien just missed out on qualifying as well for the Dragons.

 

[jefffff34]

Guess I'll take +35 for the round then.

I had Cronulla as only a 37% chance to score first too. They are terrible.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

F$^# this - another upset on the cards, Sharks up 10-0 at half time, with the run of play too.

 

[happy_punter]

BETTING SCANDAL, private investigation into the dragons is a must.

 

[BarryG]

BETTING SCANDAL, private investigation into the dragons is a must.

That's one way to get around the salary cap.

 

[dr nick]

betting all 8 underdogs this round in match odds (yes even cronulla )

nice little collect, some big priced upsets too.

but out of LMS with the dragons.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Going to try and use centrebet's PYOL to back the all the dogs this week, 8 leg multi for approx $5 div. Not smart betting, but just something to watch over the weekend

PENRITH PANTHERS (+16.5) @ 1.23
BRISBANE BRONCOS (+18.5) @ 1.23
GOLD COAST TITANS (+19.5) @ 1.22
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (+18.5) @ 1.23
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (+18.5) @ 1.23
SOUTH SYDNEY (+16.5) @ 1.23
MANLY SEA EAGLES (+22.5) @ 1.23
CRONULLA SHARKS (+26.5) @ 1.21

Combined Dividend: 5.112

Damn you Titans

Might have another go at this next week.

 

[Byejune]

Round 2

I like every dog bar sharks and manly early on

couldnt even get manly and the sharks right! staying away untill it counts hoping AFL is slightly more predictable!

 

[The_Big_Ship]

3/16 in the NRL tipping so far...

 

[baywatch5]

Results Round 2

NRL 2-2 +0.83 units

YTD 3-8 (-8.32u @ 23%)

 

[ofey]

I have to say the Sharks game was rigged. No way they should have beaten StG.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

It was in the wet, and it was only game 2. Who knows?

 

[lockscombi]

Great work Hoggy!

Keep it up mate, your reasoning and logical value betting is very inspirational for a wannabe winning punter.. ME!

Value betting is the only way to bet and devising a system like yours for 1st try/goal scorer is smart and rewarding.

Please don't stop posting!

Your punting fan
locky

 

[jefffff34]

Great work Hoggy!

Keep it up mate, your reasoning and logical value betting is very inspirational for a wannabe winning punter.. ME!

Value betting is the only way to bet and devising a system like yours for 1st try/goal scorer is smart and rewarding.

Please don't stop posting!

Your punting fan
locky

Thanks for the kind words...very appreciated...hope you find a winner too.

Tally recap - Last round +35 - Season to date +38 - Winning % 63%

Parramatta vs South Sydney
Nathan Merritt $10 @ Sportsbet
Greg Inglis $11 @ Sportingbet
Jarrad Hayne $12 @ Sportsbet
Dylan Farrell $15 @ Sportsbet
Rhys Wesser $17 @ Centrebet
Issac Luke $26 @ Sportingbet


Gold Coast vs Brisbane
Jharal Yow Yeh $11 @ TAB
Steve Michaels $15 @ Sportingbet
Jack Reed $17 @ Centrebet
Matt Gillett $23 @ Sportingbet
Mark Minichiello $29 @ Sportsbet


Penrith vs Cronulla
Lachlan Coote $11 @ TAB
Michael Gordon $11 @ TAB
Michael Jennings $11 @ Centrebet
David Simmons $13 @ Centrebet


Wests Tigers vs Canberra
Lote Tuqiri $10 @ Sportsbet
Daniel Vidot $11 @ Centrebet
Chris Lawrence $12 @ Sportsbet
Joel Thompson $13 @ Centrebet
Benji Marshall $17 @ Centrebet



Second half of matches will follow hopefully Sunday morning...20 units on the line for Friday and Saturday's matches, with a maximum return of +65 units.

 

[jefffff34]

Also with my $50 free Sportingbet Ricky Ponting bet, I have put a 3 way multi that goes Souths x Gold Coast x Rebels to pay out around $923 I think it was.

 

[twarby]

good start hoggy

 

[jefffff34]

Happy with the first try scoring bets... +21 so far.... But **** you Gold Coast, you've cost me a grand. :evil:

 

[baywatch5]

ATS - TIGERS -3.5 (x1.5)
Buying x1 point @ Sportsbet

 

[jefffff34]

+3 for the night, +24 for the round halfway through with 3 winners.... Should see me infront for the round regardless which is always good. I've only done the early game so far... Can't remember who the bets were with but Brett Morris at $10 and Matt Cooper I think at $16 were the bets.