Expansion NRL v AFL v FFA v ARU expansion priorities

[littleduck]

NRL expansion priorities are:
1. Gold Coast
2. Central Coast
3. Wellington
4. 3rd Sth East Qld team
5. Wellington
5. Melbourne (making sure they are succesful)
6. n/a
[in no particular order]
Clearly, the expansion priorities are towards Australasian markets rather than everywhere nationally.... in other words QLD NSW VIC (East Coast) and NZ/Pacific Islands.

AFL expansion priorities are:
1. Gold Coast
2. Western Sydney
3. n/a
Clearly, the priorities are metropolitan capital cities nationally and not regional centres save for Gold Coast.

FFA expansion priorities are:
1. North Queensland
2. Gold Coast
3. Western Sydney
4. Melbourne/Geelong
[in no particular order]
Clearly, metropolitan capital cities nationally plus east coast regional centres.. in other words, the best of AFL and NRL combined. This leaves the A-League to become our most truly national football competition. If they ultimately get a few games on FTA and the Socceroos brand remains strong, they are potentially sitting on a gold mine. However, the limitations of professional soccer in Australia will remain in that it will be a breeding ground for future stars of overseas competitions (and Socceroos).

ARU S14 expansion priorities are:
1. Victoria
2. Gold Coast
3. Western Sydney
4. North Queensland
[in no particular order]
S14 is a half-season competition at best and has too little product to worry about expansion.

 

[Hap Hapablap]

ummm league in WA is also a priority? if it isn't i do hope the NRL breaks down. Continue to neglect the country and concentrate on their homelands if this is to be true. A 3rd WA team should be far ahead then a Wellington team but behind a central coast team.

 

[nescri]

I dont agree with the order you have listed littleduck.
Melbourne expansion at number 5?
And you cleary left out Perth, to get across your 'east coast' theory.

O'niell wants a japanese team in Super Rugby, before any others.

 

[littleduck]

ummm league in WA is also a priority?

It remains in the "good idea" basket for distant future expansion, but is not considered (rightly or wrongly) to be an "expansion priority".

if it isn't i do hope the NRL breaks down.

It goes against NRL in broadcast rights negotiations.

Continue to neglect the country and concentrate on their homelands if this is to be true.

I think the rationale is that NSW and QLD are our 2 most decentralised states and therefore RL heartland still provides tremendous expansion options in the highly populated regions... not to mention the great possibilities that exist in Wellington and the Pacific Islands (and the consequent positive flow on effect for the NZRFL).... and this means WA and SA are not currently "expansion priorities".

A 3rd WA team should be far ahead then a Wellington team but behind a central coast team.

You're all over the shop.

 

[littleduck]

I dont agree with the order you have listed littleduck.

Nor do I, hence I added "[in no particular order]" at the end.

And you cleary left out Perth, to get across your 'east coast' theory.

My argument is that Perth is considered a future expansion possibility and not an "expansion priority".... rightly or wrongly.

O'niell wants a japanese team in Super Rugby, before any others.

True.

 

[Ancient and Loyal]

The NRL has no expansion priorities. Uncle Rupert told me so.

 

[Doctor Jolly]

AFl would be:
1) Gold coast
2) Western Sydney
--- daylight ---
3) Tassie
4) 3rd WA team.

Tassie really depends on if the AFL want to increase the teams to about 20, thereby making each teams footprint smaller. If, on the other hand, the AFL looks to rationalise Melbourne teams and return to 16 team comp, I'm not sure tassie will make it.

As for NRL, the only next step is to move a Sydney team up to the central coast. I think they will concentrate on trying to hold on to Western Sydney and GC. IMO, now that Foxtel is a major player with all codes, the Storm is expendable. They may in fact contract.

RU - Snowballs chance in hell of expanding in Australia. Possibly the argies or japs in the super 14. Thats all.

Soccer - GC would be ballsy with all the competition there. I'd say they'd go for 2nd teams in Sydney and Melbourne first.

 

[Chuq]

Soccer - GC would be ballsy with all the competition there. I'd say they'd go for 2nd teams in Sydney and Melbourne first.

GC almost were in for the 2008-09 season (along with Nth Qld) - this has been deferred to the following season now. This was all done before AFL and RU make any major announcement of expansion destinations.

 

[Funkalicous]

The NRL will have no choice but to expand where they're forced to retreat. They don't have the money for places like Wellington.

 

[1908]

The only strategy the NRL has is to keep costs to a minimum whilst News rake in the cash for the money spent on the SL war. This will continue until the next TV deal.

It's an appalling predicament. To think that in 1995 RL had Murdoch and Packer by the balls and should have let them fight it out for the rights, top dollar winning, instead RL looks after Packers interests and fights Murdoch for him, thus putting the game back 20 years and the effects were felt in all the league playing countries. In the end Packer betrayed the ARL and RL was the loser. Makes me angry just thinking about it.

 

[Rob]

The NRL will have no choice but to expand where they're forced to retreat. They don't have the money for places like Wellington.

Neither does the FFA, but it doesn't prevent expansion. 2 words:
Private ownership.

 

[Doctor Jolly]

The only strategy the NRL has is to keep costs to a minimum whilst News rake in the cash for the money spent on the SL war. This will continue until the next TV deal.

It's an appalling predicament. To think that in 1995 RL had Murdoch and Packer by the balls and should have let them fight it out for the rights, top dollar winning, instead RL looks after Packers interests and fights Murdoch for him, thus putting the game back 20 years and the effects were felt in all the league playing countries. In the end Packer betrayed the ARL and RL was the loser. Makes me angry just thinking about it.

It wont end with the next TV deal. News Ltd is only extracting "interest" from its "loan" to the NRL. The situation has no end, because none of the "loan" is being paid off.

 

[littleduck]

AFl would be:
1) Gold coast
2) Western Sydney
--- daylight ---
3) Tassie
4) 3rd WA team.

Tassie really depends on if the AFL want to increase the teams to about 20, thereby making each teams footprint smaller. If, on the other hand, the AFL looks to rationalise Melbourne teams and return to 16 team comp, I'm not sure tassie will make it.

I'm with you down to here.

As for NRL, the only next step is to move a Sydney team up to the central coast.

Bollocks.

I think they will concentrate on trying to hold on to Western Sydney and GC.

Bollocks.

IMO, now that Foxtel is a major player with all codes, the Storm is expendable. They may in fact contract.

Bollocks.

RU - Snowballs chance in hell of expanding in Australia. Possibly the argies or japs in the super 14. Thats all.

S14 needs to become a fair dinkum full-season competition and not this half-season comp thats all over by the time NRL/AFL get to about round 8.

Soccer - GC would be ballsy with all the competition there. I'd say they'd go for 2nd teams in Sydney and Melbourne first.

Umm, haven't they already admitted Gold Coast and North Queensland?

 

[stmookeyj]

NRL expansion priorities are:
1. Gold Coast
2. Central Coast
3. Wellington
4. 3rd Sth East Qld team
5. Wellington
5. Melbourne (making sure they are succesful)
6. n/a
[in no particular order]
Clearly, the expansion priorities are towards Australasian markets rather than everywhere nationally.... in other words QLD NSW VIC (East Coast) and NZ/Pacific Islands.

AFL expansion priorities are:
1. Gold Coast
2. Western Sydney
3. n/a
Clearly, the priorities are metropolitan capital cities nationally and not regional centres save for Gold Coast.

FFA expansion priorities are:
1. North Queensland
2. Gold Coast
3. Western Sydney
4. Melbourne/Geelong
[in no particular order]
Clearly, metropolitan capital cities nationally plus east coast regional centres.. in other words, the best of AFL and NRL combined. This leaves the A-League to become our most truly national football competition. If they ultimately get a few games on FTA and the Socceroos brand remains strong, they are potentially sitting on a gold mine. However, the limitations of professional soccer in Australia will remain in that it will be a breeding ground for future stars of overseas competitions (and Socceroos).

ARU S14 expansion priorities are:
1. Victoria
2. Gold Coast
3. Western Sydney
4. North Queensland
[in no particular order]
S14 is a half-season competition at best and has too little product to worry about expansion.

In terms of A-League expansion, Wollongong is also in the mix although they are behind GC/NQ. And S14 won't expand whilst we have the current format in place (if it does it will be in the pacific rim first rather than in Australia).

Umm, haven't they already admitted Gold Coast and North Queensland?

The NQ bid fell into financial problems a week or so before they were due to be admitted and by the time they had interest from other financial parties FFA decided to put a hold on expansion for the time being.

 

[griffnrl]

NRL expansion priorities are:
1. Gold Coast
2. Central Coast
3. Wellington
4. 3rd Sth East Qld team
5. Wellington
5. Melbourne (making sure they are succesful)
6. n/a
[in no particular order]
Clearly, the expansion priorities are towards Australasian markets rather than everywhere nationally.... in other words QLD NSW VIC (East Coast) and NZ/Pacific Islands.

AFL expansion priorities are:
1. Gold Coast
2. Western Sydney
3. n/a
Clearly, the priorities are metropolitan capital cities nationally and not regional centres save for Gold Coast.

FFA expansion priorities are:
1. North Queensland
2. Gold Coast
3. Western Sydney
4. Melbourne/Geelong
[in no particular order]
Clearly, metropolitan capital cities nationally plus east coast regional centres.. in other words, the best of AFL and NRL combined. This leaves the A-League to become our most truly national football competition. If they ultimately get a few games on FTA and the Socceroos brand remains strong, they are potentially sitting on a gold mine. However, the limitations of professional soccer in Australia will remain in that it will be a breeding ground for future stars of overseas competitions (and Socceroos).

ARU S14 expansion priorities are:
1. Victoria
2. Gold Coast
3. Western Sydney
4. North Queensland
[in no particular order]
S14 is a half-season competition at best and has too little product to worry about expansion.

The expansion plans of the different codes is an interesting topic.

I think you're wrong about Perth not being on the expansion radar for the NRL. Clearly, at least the ARL side of the NRL is interested as shown through their support for the Reds entry into the NSW comp. Although this obviously counts for nothing if News Ltd isn't interested as well.

The NRL is still holding on to the idea that a Sydney club will relocate to the Central Coast. I can't see that happening, and if it did I don't think it would work very well.

I know your list isn't in order but I would say Central Coast and Perth are high up on the radar, with Sunshine Coast and Wellington longer term propositions.

On AFL, there is really nowhere to go after a 2nd Sydney side and a 2nd SE Qld side in the foreseeable future. A 3rd WA or SA side would just cannibalise existing support and won't add to TV viewing.

The population of Tassie could theoretically support a team but the way it is distributed means it wouldn't stack up. Even then it doesn't add a lot to the comp given that they are all fanatical AFL fans anyway, so it won't do that much for growth.

Unfortunately Canberra/Queanbeyan is too small for an AFL team, and AFL doesn't have the option of expansion overseas in the foreseeable future which the other codes do.

Obviously A-League has the biggest expansion potential - Gold Coast, NQ and Wollongong in the shorter term and then after a period of consolidation it will probably look to a 2nd Sydney and 2nd Melbourne. Canberra is probably not as high on the agenda because the marketplace is too competitive already.

I can't agree with your thoughts on RU's expansion though.

Expansion priorities for RU in Australia aren't geographical in nature, they are more in terms of expanding in terms of season length and maximising existing resources.

Super 14's destiny in Australia is not only in the hands of the ARU but is also dependent on the whims of SARFU and NZRFU. John O'Neill is pushing the idea of a full length season which would be great for Australia, but I can't see NZ and RSA ever going for it. He makes really good points about making better use of their contracted players, who play so few games at the moment. RSA might be persuaded, but NZ won't. Politically they can't, as the NZ union rely on support from the provincial unions which will lose out big time if the NPC is damaged.

All the talk of Japan or Pacific Islands or Argentina is all pretty pie in the sky, and the provincial nature of union is such that artificial sides from within the territory of an existing union (eg Western Sydney, Gold Coast) are unlikely to work. It is far more likely that growth will happen from NSW playing games at Parramatta and Qld playing games on the Gold Coast than new teams being introduced.

So how does it all shake out?

I don't buy into the whole soccer is taking over line at all so don't think the other codes have much to worry about. That said it is expanding heavily into NRL areas, but that is more due to the fact that NRL has sides in the 2nd tier cities outside the mainland state capitals, which AFL doesn't. IMO soccer has most to gain and NRL has most to lose in Wollongong - where RL has only half a team, and with tenuous local links in terms of branding and identity.

Conversely the A-league has a lot to lose on the Central Coast if NRL moves in. The Mariners have been successful largely because they are the only team of any code on the Central Coast rather than any great love of soccer in the region. The people would ditch them and move to their preferred code of RL if it was available. Admission of the Central Coast Bears would also go a long way to re-establishing RL in North Sydney, which became AFL and RU territory after the Bears' demise. This would be a negative for the Swans and Waratahs.

NRL has been concentrating on playing defence in their core markets for the past 10 years, but I think are starting to see the benefits of expansion. For the most part, NRL expansion targets are easier (and less expensive) propositions than the AFL targets.

The NRL actually has a lot to gain from expansion, and this should be reflected in increased TV revenue. Having a "dot on the map" in Perth makes them more attractive to advertisers wanting a "national" reach. Also timezones make a Perth team a very valuable proposition. A Perth team and a NZ team can both play home games at 7.30 on a Saturday night local time, meaning that there would be 3 back to back live games on Pay TV on Saturday night in the Eastern states. A second NZ team would also increase the value of NZ television rights, currently worth about $12 million a year.

For the first time ever, the NRL outsmarted the AFL by beating them to market on the Gold Coast. By the time an AFL team finally starts up, the Titans will be well and truly established and there will be a soccer team in place as well. The AFL has the bankroll to make it work, but they won't be as successful as they otherwise might have been.

Western Sydney will be more difficult. I can't see them getting more than 12 to 15,000 through the gates on an average week, although the odd blockbuster against the Swans or Collingwood should get 60 plus. They will get the one off general sports fans going to these bigger games, but I don't think there is the interest in the code in the region to have much of a core support. Also, I just can't see how the addition of Western Sydney will bring in the additional TV revenue that has been spoken about. Already the AFL is being paid over the going the rate for TV, and people in Western Sydney already have the option of watching AFL on FTA TV, and generally don't want to. Obviously there is additional value in 9 games a week rather than 8, but I can't see it growing the viewership.

Union is probably in the most trouble, because it can't do anything without NZ agreeing. Its attempts at a domestic comp were a disaster. Expansion to Gold Coast, Nth Qld or Western Sydney won't work, leaving only Melbourne, but that is a very tough sporting market to crack. And would News Ltd fund the expansion of the Super 14 into Melbourne and thus damage their investment in the Storm? I doubt it.

 

[greenhat]

Great post Griff, hard to argue with anything there.

 

[greenhat]

The NRL finally admits returning the Reds is a serious option:
http://www.warugbyleague.com.au/content/news/?page=3&nid=2960&oid



Gotta love what the WA Reds are doing over there. Starting at the grassroots, building a club without any significant outside help.
By competing in east coast comps using the best players from the WARL they are really setting themselves up. If it all continues to go to plan, by 2012 the NRL will have no option but to let them in. They'll already have a competant administration with all the kinks ironed out, a small hardcore base of existing fans and members, some corporate support, and a couple of good local players ready to play top grade NRL.

Also, because they will have grown up completely of their own accord as a genuine, old fashioned, local club, I think there'll be a feel good factor around them too. That will obviously help them get new (and regain old) fans in WA but I think it will also give a bit of feel good factor to the whole NRL too. It might help heal a few of the old wounds of the Super League War.