I lol'd
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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Oaks Day
- Thread starter BEEG
- Start date
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I lol'd
Thought I'd do my tips just to see how far off I am!
Race 1: VESPER - Diago - Work The Room
Race 2: ABOUT READY - Very Discreet - Sunday Rose
Race 3: GOD HELP HER - Queen for Nine Days - Be Savvy
Race 4: ANDRONICA - Celts - Dutchy's Lass
Race 5: KING COBWEB - Zaira - Alpha Proxima
Race 6: BRAZILIAN PULSE - Shezaten - Heartsareforlove
Race 7: ABSOLUTELYAWESOME - Domesky - Crawfish
Race 8: FIRST COMMAND - Varenna Miss - Orbit Express
Race 9: NIBLICK - Silky Smooth - Lakedro
Race 1: VESPER - Diago - Work The Room
Race 2: ABOUT READY - Very Discreet - Sunday Rose
Race 3: GOD HELP HER - Queen for Nine Days - Be Savvy
Race 4: ANDRONICA - Celts - Dutchy's Lass
Race 5: KING COBWEB - Zaira - Alpha Proxima
Race 6: BRAZILIAN PULSE - Shezaten - Heartsareforlove
Race 7: ABSOLUTELYAWESOME - Domesky - Crawfish
Race 8: FIRST COMMAND - Varenna Miss - Orbit Express
Race 9: NIBLICK - Silky Smooth - Lakedro
haywood jablome
Cancelled
Oh really, I didn't know the Oaks was for females
Thanks for informing me. YOSEI, SASA, SHAMROCKER, BRAZILIAN PULSE, PLACEMENT, DIZLAGO, SPEED OF DARK, SHEZATEN - are not womanly names. Now Precious Lorraine on the other hand, that is a very womanly name and she will go very close to winning the Oaks - you watch. 
Shezaten = Womanly?
What's Niblicks form like in the wet? I like the horse.
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If I was a bookie I'd have Dizlago 20-1, barring a storm of Aus Cup day proportions.
Good betting card tomorrow, best since Guineas day IMO. Has been better champs and races but looking forward to throwing some decent wagers on $5 plus runners with some confidence.
Good betting card tomorrow, best since Guineas day IMO. Has been better champs and races but looking forward to throwing some decent wagers on $5 plus runners with some confidence.
Hasn't had a run in the wet as yet I'm fairly sure..
Bombed out on Melbourne Cup day. Didn't like the support program, dropped some cash on it anyway lol. Amaethon/Launay quinella helped a bit, but the day would've been better if Amaethon had snuck up and got his nose over first.
As for the big one, I had 3 of the First 4 in my first 6 picks, but underrating Maluckyday cost and overrating the AJC Derby cost me. Should have simply kept it simple - yhe two best looking horses finished 1st and 3rd and if SYT hadn't pulled until after past the post the first time, if he had settled better... well.. he was the winner after 3000m what could have been. I haven't been home/had a chance to read the posts around here on the race yet, but his effort was massive and doesn't/shouldn't take anything at all away from his superb spring. The style in which Americain won, I think, is going to be my favourite MC to re-watch - damn he looked awesome. Most impressive win of at least the past decade imho.
Anyway, on to Oaks Day! Gotta go for some roughies
Expecting it to be Slow/slower side of dead all day. will be interesting to see how the track holds up now..
R1:
The wide draw shouldn't bother Cosmocrat ($9) much in these conditions, plus he'll drift to the second half of the field anyway. Goes well third up, seems to be an improving type, has raced in some nice races - I think he'll run well at nice odds. It'd be good if the track ends up in even better condition that I expect Vesper is obviously the biggest danger, should have finished closer in the Sale Cup, this extra distance should suit him, as will the long straight and getting Hall back.
3 - 5 - 8 - 10
R2:
Lottery race - mares, straight race, wet track - good luck. About Ready ($8) has the experience up the straight, handles the cut out enough, is coming off a good win last time, has been thereabouts this prep and she goes well for Smith.
9 - 6 - 1 - 3
R3:
It's lunchtime - go grab a bite to eat.
I'm hoping Ain'tnofallenstar ($11) can improve on the slightly (very) firmer track and more distance should be in her favour.
1 - 9 - 4 - 5
R4:
Lottery race - no standout 3yos, straight race, wet track - good luck. I think Offshore Sham ($16) has a bit of talent, should be fired up for this rich race first up, Portelli doesn't waste time merely hoping when he throws them in deep - I wouldn't be surprised to see her run a big race.
10 - 5 - 13 - 6
R5:
Zaira ($3.20) probably ends up in the lead, handles the wet, in good form, should go close. If it was a dry track, I would think No Jurisdiction would just be beating these, but his classes of advantage is dulled by the rain affected track.
5 - 15 - 3 - 1
R6:
Oaks winner = Wakeful form, 'tis the way I'm used to it and it is the way I'm expecting it. These fillies are taking turns winning this year, so it won't surprise to see an upset. Hopefully the track/conditions hasn't deteriorated by now.
I thought that Kittens ($13) didn't have the best of luck in the Wakeful, squeezed at the start and lost ground, was tracking into it well before running into no clear room and being harshly checked off heels and losing momentum (and taking a while to wind up again), finally found some clear galloping room, only to find her passage home to be checkered with tiring horses and needing to go weaving. It wasn't one of Rodd's best rides and I don't think there's that much between the runs of her and Sasa (obvious danger) coming out of that race - but there's a fair difference in price...
Brazilian Pulse, Placement and Heartsforlove will go forward and BP is the best of those, although I think she's a bit short of odds.. if they do actually crawl up front, it won't surprise to see any (or more) of those kicking around the turn and be too hard for the others to run down.
I was initially excited for her, but after watching the replay, I thought that Maraaseem had every chance and should have run down Brazilian Pulse in the Wakeful, but was beaten by the better horse - I'd be surprised to see those tables turned, but she will appreciate the extra 500m...
Yosei is da bomb and probably the classiest of all these fillies, buuut - jumping up from the mile to 2500m and the gutbuster against older mares - is she really thaaat much better than these? I'm not sure, I don't think so.
Shamrocker has been my long time Oaks tip and she had genuine excuses in the washup of the Wakeful, but it's hard to back her when you just don't know how well for sure she's going. Finally, the form through Lion Tamer and the Vase looks good for Precious Lorraine, but I think she's a duffer if the track is too wet and I just can't get excited about a Hayes runner at the moment/this spring, so am happy to have her go around without me weighing her down.
9 - 2 - 4 - 6
R7:
Tough race with the B-Graders, mainly full of one-time Derby hopefuls who missed for one reason of another. I've been a fan of Absolutelyawesome ($7), I didn't hate his run in the Vase after bombing the start and never really settling on the tricky MV track - especially for such an immature in the head horse. He still found the line nicely enough and the slight drop in distance + easier grade will help for now. The open spaces at Flemington will suit much better, the softish track shouldn't hold any fears, should get nice cover from the barrier - I think he can go very close.
6 - 3 - 9 - 10
R8:
Another straight race - another open affair, so good luck.
Can Avenue handle this class + open age + the straight + affected track + without her usual (who she is very much suited to) jockey + giving weight to some talented sprinters/straight trackers? She's flying, but she's unders. I love Varenna Miss, but after the way she just got up last start, she's unders in this field and grade at this stage too.
At the odds, I don't mind the claims for Silver Bullion ($41). In these straight races, I like a horse who has done it well before and he has (3: 1-0-2) - including a second up win over the 1000m here beating Arinos when doing a bit wrong. He looks more mature this time in and his first up run was good when he didn't have the best of luck in the straight (an erratically desperate Stanzout worried SB). I am concerned about 1) how bad the track will be cutting up and soft by now and 2) He's drawn barrier 2 which may well be the wrong part of the track to be in by now.
This time last year Secret Flyer was going around in races like the Manikato and Salinger and whilst disappointing, he wasn't that bad and only really outclassed. Forgiving his second up run, his other starts this prep have been nice enough to maybe suggest that he can win again soon - and he does like the straight. The likely hot-ish speed should suit him nicely too.
Temple Of Boom might just come straight down the outside rail....
14 - 9 - 10 - 1
R9:
If we had have had no rain and the track was in tip top condition, I think that Niblick would just win - but that's not the case and now I can't figure this one out. I think this is potentially a trap race with horses up in grade, out of form, wet/cut up track, have been up forever and/or they just aren't that good.
He's a roughie, but Bossy has had two rides on St Ives ($31) for a first and a second, both times over the mile, albeit in weaker grade and the horse has a good record third up. His run was good on Geelong Cup day and he actually loomed and looked a chance at the turn but didn't quite finish it off. I'm worried about how he'll handle the wet track - but both times that he's 'failed' have been unsuitable races and over perhaps unsuitable distances, so I'm willing to give him another chance. If it's firmer than soft = no worries, well, other than his class
Lakedro third up at the mile seems the obvious pick coming off a super run in the Sale Cup (which has already produced a winner at Flemington (Tagus on Tuesday)).
10 - 8 - 2 - 7
As for the big one, I had 3 of the First 4 in my first 6 picks, but underrating Maluckyday cost and overrating the AJC Derby cost me. Should have simply kept it simple - yhe two best looking horses finished 1st and 3rd and if SYT hadn't pulled until after past the post the first time, if he had settled better... well.. he was the winner after 3000m
what could have been. I haven't been home/had a chance to read the posts around here on the race yet, but his effort was massive and doesn't/shouldn't take anything at all away from his superb spring. The style in which Americain won, I think, is going to be my favourite MC to re-watch - damn he looked awesome. Most impressive win of at least the past decade imho.Anyway, on to Oaks Day! Gotta go for some roughies
Expecting it to be Slow/slower side of dead all day. will be interesting to see how the track holds up now..
R1:
The wide draw shouldn't bother Cosmocrat ($9) much in these conditions, plus he'll drift to the second half of the field anyway. Goes well third up, seems to be an improving type, has raced in some nice races - I think he'll run well at nice odds. It'd be good if the track ends up in even better condition that I expect
Vesper is obviously the biggest danger, should have finished closer in the Sale Cup, this extra distance should suit him, as will the long straight and getting Hall back.3 - 5 - 8 - 10
R2:
Lottery race - mares, straight race, wet track - good luck. About Ready ($8) has the experience up the straight, handles the cut out enough, is coming off a good win last time, has been thereabouts this prep and she goes well for Smith.
9 - 6 - 1 - 3
R3:
It's lunchtime - go grab a bite to eat.
I'm hoping Ain'tnofallenstar ($11) can improve on the slightly (very) firmer track and more distance should be in her favour.
1 - 9 - 4 - 5
R4:
Lottery race - no standout 3yos, straight race, wet track - good luck. I think Offshore Sham ($16) has a bit of talent, should be fired up for this rich race first up, Portelli doesn't waste time merely hoping when he throws them in deep - I wouldn't be surprised to see her run a big race.
10 - 5 - 13 - 6
R5:
Zaira ($3.20) probably ends up in the lead, handles the wet, in good form, should go close. If it was a dry track, I would think No Jurisdiction would just be beating these, but his classes of advantage is dulled by the rain affected track.
5 - 15 - 3 - 1
R6:
Oaks winner = Wakeful form, 'tis the way I'm used to it and it is the way I'm expecting it. These fillies are taking turns winning this year, so it won't surprise to see an upset. Hopefully the track/conditions hasn't deteriorated by now.
I thought that Kittens ($13) didn't have the best of luck in the Wakeful, squeezed at the start and lost ground, was tracking into it well before running into no clear room and being harshly checked off heels and losing momentum (and taking a while to wind up again), finally found some clear galloping room, only to find her passage home to be checkered with tiring horses and needing to go weaving. It wasn't one of Rodd's best rides and I don't think there's that much between the runs of her and Sasa (obvious danger) coming out of that race - but there's a fair difference in price...
Brazilian Pulse, Placement and Heartsforlove will go forward and BP is the best of those, although I think she's a bit short of odds.. if they do actually crawl up front, it won't surprise to see any (or more) of those kicking around the turn and be too hard for the others to run down.
I was initially excited for her, but after watching the replay, I thought that Maraaseem had every chance and should have run down Brazilian Pulse in the Wakeful, but was beaten by the better horse - I'd be surprised to see those tables turned, but she will appreciate the extra 500m...
Yosei is da bomb and probably the classiest of all these fillies, buuut - jumping up from the mile to 2500m and the gutbuster against older mares - is she really thaaat much better than these? I'm not sure, I don't think so.
Shamrocker has been my long time Oaks tip and she had genuine excuses in the washup of the Wakeful, but it's hard to back her when you just don't know how well for sure she's going. Finally, the form through Lion Tamer and the Vase looks good for Precious Lorraine, but I think she's a duffer if the track is too wet and I just can't get excited about a Hayes runner at the moment/this spring, so am happy to have her go around without me weighing her down.
9 - 2 - 4 - 6
R7:
Tough race with the B-Graders, mainly full of one-time Derby hopefuls who missed for one reason of another. I've been a fan of Absolutelyawesome ($7), I didn't hate his run in the Vase after bombing the start and never really settling on the tricky MV track - especially for such an immature in the head horse. He still found the line nicely enough and the slight drop in distance + easier grade will help for now. The open spaces at Flemington will suit much better, the softish track shouldn't hold any fears, should get nice cover from the barrier - I think he can go very close.
6 - 3 - 9 - 10
R8:
Another straight race - another open affair, so good luck.
Can Avenue handle this class + open age + the straight + affected track + without her usual (who she is very much suited to) jockey + giving weight to some talented sprinters/straight trackers? She's flying, but she's unders. I love Varenna Miss, but after the way she just got up last start, she's unders in this field and grade at this stage too.
At the odds, I don't mind the claims for Silver Bullion ($41). In these straight races, I like a horse who has done it well before and he has (3: 1-0-2) - including a second up win over the 1000m here beating Arinos when doing a bit wrong. He looks more mature this time in and his first up run was good when he didn't have the best of luck in the straight (an erratically desperate Stanzout worried SB). I am concerned about 1) how bad the track will be cutting up and soft by now and 2) He's drawn barrier 2 which may well be the wrong part of the track to be in by now.
This time last year Secret Flyer was going around in races like the Manikato and Salinger and whilst disappointing, he wasn't that bad and only really outclassed. Forgiving his second up run, his other starts this prep have been nice enough to maybe suggest that he can win again soon - and he does like the straight. The likely hot-ish speed should suit him nicely too.
Temple Of Boom might just come straight down the outside rail....
14 - 9 - 10 - 1
R9:
If we had have had no rain and the track was in tip top condition, I think that Niblick would just win - but that's not the case and now I can't figure this one out. I think this is potentially a trap race with horses up in grade, out of form, wet/cut up track, have been up forever and/or they just aren't that good.
He's a roughie, but Bossy has had two rides on St Ives ($31) for a first and a second, both times over the mile, albeit in weaker grade and the horse has a good record third up. His run was good on Geelong Cup day and he actually loomed and looked a chance at the turn but didn't quite finish it off. I'm worried about how he'll handle the wet track - but both times that he's 'failed' have been unsuitable races and over perhaps unsuitable distances, so I'm willing to give him another chance. If it's firmer than soft = no worries, well, other than his class
Lakedro third up at the mile seems the obvious pick coming off a super run in the Sale Cup (which has already produced a winner at Flemington (Tagus on Tuesday)).
10 - 8 - 2 - 7
Gerrard_to_Torres
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1) 5 - Vesper
2) 3 - De Lightning Ridge
3) 3 - Very Cherry
4) 6 - Curtana
5) 13 - Resolvere
6) 6 - Sasa
7) 2 - Zubbaya
8) 1 - First Command
9) 8 - Niblick
2) 3 - De Lightning Ridge
3) 3 - Very Cherry
4) 6 - Curtana
5) 13 - Resolvere
6) 6 - Sasa
7) 2 - Zubbaya
8) 1 - First Command
9) 8 - Niblick
Here we go again...
Race 1
tri. 5/3,9,10/1,3,4,9,10
Race 1
tri. 5/3,9,10/1,3,4,9,10
- Jul 7, 2003
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I included the big steel in my numbers but went with the favourite in the end, the track looks terrible - it's such a shame.
I would say it would mean its the best of the late mail.
Judging by the first race Il be backin on pace runners, I might be wrong but can't see many winners coming from the back, track looks like it's gunna chop up fast..
mattys123
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Alittlevolcanic Each Way in a tough race on a terrible track.
On netra ew going for some value..
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WTF is going on Channel Seven???
Why have you got the today show on???
Why have you got the today show on???
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