Racing October Daily Punt- A cup , A plate and trip up Everest

[Waca Jr]

Question for the punters, particularly horse racing. What sort of a betting strategy or staking plan do you generally try and stick to? My biggest issue is I get involved with races I really shouldn’t. Sometimes it turns profitable, but more often than not.

An example is those stupid midway races on a Saturday.. let’s be honest nobody should really get involved.. but ya know JMac Waller.. 1st up.. $2.50 ..

For me, Let’s say i’am walking into Caulfield on Saturday. Already having backed broadsiding at 4s.
I’ll have my “bank “ for the day let’s say it’s $1000..

Across the Melbourne/Sydney/Adeliade there are 30 odd races to choose from and no i’am not counting Wodonga or some Western Australian random track.

Ideally I find by 3 best bets regardless of the price and bet accordingly based on a % of bankroll and confidence. Maybe 10-15% Into a quaddie/doubles and a 10-15% fun bets to make it interesting.. nothing big but maybe a tri/f4 for interest.

Is there something else I can or should be doing that might help with my overall management and staking other than the obvious of punting at Doomban, Donald, Kemba ect;

I'd steer clear of Adelaide and Perth for one. The level of racing is a rung below the eastern states. Its different folks for different strokes. I'm personally a win only bettor unless the horse I like is longer than 10/1. I proportional stake and always stake to win a certain amount on the race even if i back multiple runners. Do you monitor betfair? Often you can cotton onto a firmer before some of the bigger firms wake up to it. The last 5 minutes on betfair and the tote is where the bigger syndicates show their hand. if you can see the trend early you can almost guarantee to beat the SP

 

[qarocks]

bit risky with NTD but a place multi of Pippie Beach + Captain Furai looks alright.

 

[DirtyLeeds]

It won, i wouldn't complain. Trainer surely knows more than the owners though...

Can't hear anyone complaining !! He has a tendancy at the end of the race to 'turn off', reckon he needs something to control that......
Thanks for your input anyway

 

[Waca Jr]

bit risky with NTD but a place multi of Pippie Beach + Captain Furai looks alright.

Pippie Beach looks a bet. Like the other just reckon its a bit short. I marked it 2.3 unless i can get better than that I'll back Congregation

 

[Waca Jr]

A few at the early prices Saturday.

Rosehill R7#3 Attrition. Already been 26 into 17. Looks set to peak now at the 1900 and this isn't an overly strong race outside of the fave on the 7 day back up. Mertens flying up for the one ride is a pretty big indicator for me.

Caulfield
R5#16 Suparazi another that has been met with early market support. May want it a touch wetter, but looks a set play here 4th up with the senior rider going on and back down to the minimum after carry 60+kgs all 3 starts back. Arguably should have won first up. Jimmystar looks far too short to me

R7#6 Deny Knowledge. Looks the only speed here and her run was ok on paper first up. Normally improves into her prep i'd be more confident over slightly further, but Zahra on a plus

 

[Hawksboy72]

Quaddie at Caulfield this Saturday basically a double.

On SM-S918B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Everest and All Star Mile obtain G1 status. Heaps of Sydney pop up races receive black type status.

Lots of established races going to cop hits to their status as a result of this decision

 

[bigblueboy]

Quaddie at Caulfield this Saturday basically a double.

On SM-S918B using BigFooty.com mobile app

Might be value in the Toorak. Another Wil short and drawn barrier 1.

 

[Peter Doherty]

Might be value in the Toorak. Another Wil short and drawn barrier 1.

Meh, if he gets stuck on the fence he'll just barge his way through.

 

[bigblueboy]

Meh, if he gets stuck on the fence he'll just barge his way through.

Mr B, 37 starts … due for his first win beyond 1600m?

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Anyone got any promo codes for tickets this year? Once SB gave me one, but it seems random

 

[Peter Doherty]

Mr B, 37 starts … due for his first win beyond 1600m?

Looks a great opportunity to do so.

 

[HeathySure]

Broadsiding scared them all off. Looks a thin year, but still very much relevant. Guineas winners turn out to be the best sires

Very much a fallacy. There has rarely been a decent sire recently, they just can charge heaps more at stud if they win it. There have been a few decent sires. but no superstar ones since probably Lohnro

 

[rank and file]

I'd steer clear of Adelaide and Perth for one. The level of racing is a rung below the eastern states. Its different folks for different strokes. I'm personally a win only bettor unless the horse I like is longer than 10/1. I proportional stake and always stake to win a certain amount on the race even if i back multiple runners. Do you monitor betfair? Often you can cotton onto a firmer before some of the bigger firms wake up to it. The last 5 minutes on betfair and the tote is where the bigger syndicates show their hand. if you can see the trend early you can almost guarantee to beat the SP

I steer in to WA racing,especially dirt track action in the north/west.
Lean into Melbourne Spring Carnival.
NSW racing is a no-go zone.

 

[chunkylover]

I'd steer clear of Adelaide and Perth for one. The level of racing is a rung below the eastern states. Its different folks for different strokes. I'm personally a win only bettor unless the horse I like is longer than 10/1. I proportional stake and always stake to win a certain amount on the race even if i back multiple runners. Do you monitor betfair? Often you can cotton onto a firmer before some of the bigger firms wake up to it. The last 5 minutes on betfair and the tote is where the bigger syndicates show their hand. if you can see the trend early you can almost guarantee to beat the SP

I think us plebs are on a couple of seconds delay on betfair. The corporates and pros get a bit of a head start on exchange prices. I believe you can pay for a betfair premium account but I’ve never looked into it. It is a good feeling seeing something you backed get crunched late on betfair!

 

[TBellicious]

Very much a fallacy. There has rarely been a decent sire recently, they just can charge heaps more at stud if they win it. There have been a few decent sires. but no superstar ones since probably Lohnro

Early days but The Autumn Sun very much shaping as a superstar sire

 

[HeathySure]

Early days but The Autumn Sun very much shaping as a superstar sire

yeah his horses are better as they get older . But there is still a long way to go

 

[Waca Jr]

Very much a fallacy. There has rarely been a decent sire recently, they just can charge heaps more at stud if they win it. There have been a few decent sires. but no superstar ones since probably Lohnro

You got the honour roll of the Coolmore by comparison though?

 

[Waca Jr]

I think us plebs are on a couple of seconds delay on betfair. The corporates and pros get a bit of a head start on exchange prices. I believe you can pay for a betfair premium account but I’ve never looked into it. It is a good feeling seeing something you backed get crunched late on betfair!

I think you may be right, the same privilege that the big syndicates get by cancelling bets 3s into the jump on the tote. Absolute rort.

 

[Waca Jr]

Anyone got any promo codes for tickets this year? Once SB gave me one, but it seems random

Try this link, pal. 2 free GA tix

https://premier.ticketek.com.au/events/CAULGUIN24/venues/CRC/performances/EMRC2024900GG/tickets

 

[qarocks]

i like the look of cenotes EW in the PM cup tomorrow. ticks all the boxes, just need to see if it can handle the grade.