Prediction Our Chances in the 2019 finals

[ossie_21]

Same scenario as last week, win & we are 9th & only out by percentage. Freo have the exact same scenario though

 

[Optimistic Dog]

We are a better team than crows but it is going to be tough but you never know. The lions have won 6 in a row which is a big streak this season so may be a loss is due and it is not impossible that the saints beat the crows in Adelaide.

 

[MYOB]

We still need to win the last 4 to make it.

Big ask.

But if we do, it will mean we have won 8 of the last 9.

 

[gangsta deluxe]

We still need to win the last 4 to make it.

Big ask.

But if we do, it will mean we have won 8 of the last 9.

Reckon Adelaide will shit the bed. 3/4 should do it.

It’s a hard ask though.

 

[MYOB]

Reckon Adelaide will s**t the bed. 3/4 should do it.

It’s a hard ask though.

I don't think 3 out 4 will do it, as I think the Saints are a chance to win all 4.

They play Crows, Freo, Blues and Swans

 

[Libba39]

I reckon the Saints might slip in too. This week's game against the Crows in Adelaide will be huge for them.

 

[bobs head soup]

I don't think 3 out 4 will do it, as I think the Saints are a chance to win all 4.

They play Crows, Freo, Blues and Swans

Saints are 4 points and over 11% behind us. If we win 3 of 4, they're not going past us

 

[gangsta deluxe]

I don't think 3 out 4 will do it, as I think the Saints are a chance to win all 4.

They play Crows, Freo, Blues and Swans

And have a worse percentage than us.

 

[Doggy]

Saints aren't winning all 4. Even if they win this week I think Carltank get them and I also think Sydney will ... that's in Sydney where saints are shit

 

[Doggy]

Even if injuries I think Collingwood beat Adelaide and Adelaide will get belted by wet toast

 

[bobs head soup]

We still need to win the last 4 to make it.

Big ask.

But if we do, it will mean we have won 8 of the last 9.

I just did the ladder predictor and gave us 2 wins in 4, which was still enough to get us in Tried to pick other results as reasonably as possible. I think we are a very good hope of making it.

 

[Dog 36]

I just did the ladder predictor and gave us 2 wins in 4, which was still enough to get us in Tried to pick other results as reasonably as possible. I think we are a very good hope of making it.

Out of interest what were the two wins you gave us?

One would be the Crows I assume the other?

 

[bobs head soup]

Out of interest what were the two wins you gave us?

One would be the Crows I assume the other?

I gave us Crows and Essendon, which is a 50)50 admittedly but overall I reckon we just need to win 1 of Ess, Bris or GWS to still be in the hunt so I like our chances.

 

[dogwatch]

It's an intriguing situation. We have to play four teams above us (all in the 8) and two of those are interstate trips. Our only game at Marvel is against the Bombers who are hitting some good form. It's a daunting run home.

While 2 out of 4 seems more likely I think we are a real chance to win only one. And if that happens there's no way we deserve to be playing finals. Winning 3 out of those 4 would be a great achievement and a great launchpad for a finals campaign.

There will still be some surprise results. Some teams will pick up momentum while others lose it. The scenarios seem to be changing every week.

 

[Virgin Dog]

The teams relevant to our chances are Adelaide, Port and Hawthorn I reckon. Saints and North will be too far out of reach.

Currently, the ladder sits at:
8th - Adelaide (9-9, 107.5%)
9th - Bulldogs (9-9, 96.7%)
10th - Port (8-10, 102.1%)
11th - Hawthorn (8-10, 99.9%)

We have the hardest draw, but Port and Hawks would require 1 more win than us to jump over the top

Round 20
Hawthorn vs North (W)
Port vs Essendon (L)
Adelaide vs Saints (W)
Bulldogs vs Brisbane (L)

Round 21
Hawthorn vs GWS (L)
Port vs Sydney (W)
Bulldogs vs Essendon (W)
Adelaide vs Eagles (L)

Round 22
Adelaide vs Collingwood (L)
Port vs North (L)
Bulldogs vs GWS (L)
Hawthorn vs Gold Coast (W)

Round 23
Port vs Freo (W)
Hawthorn vs Eagles (L)
Bulldogs vs Adelaide (Dogs W)

This leaves final ladder of:
8th - Bulldogs (11-11)
9th - Adelaide (10-12)
10th - Port (10-12)
11th - Hawthorn (10-12)

The danger games here are Port vs North in Round 22 (at Marvel, but Port could pull it off), Adelaide vs Collingwood (at Adelaide Oval, so Crows could get this one) and both of our "wins". Any of these games goes the other way, and we drop down the ladder. Finals look pretty unlikely, but entirely possible from here, especially if we pull off an upset against Brisbane this week. We do that, and I'd be putting money on us making it

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

The pessimist in me thinks no. I'm a little bit worried that we're still a club that rides on emotion and Bevo used the West debut and Morris return as a 'break glass in case of emergency' to give the group some energy. But there's every chance that momentum can carry, like the Richmond win helped us get up against Brisbane last time. A loss against Brissie or the Dons kills it, just like it did when we lost to Geelong. A GWS loss might but I think we'd get back up to see out the final round. Just to be in contention is a huge improvement over last year.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Think of the alarm we’ll cause if we happen to fall into the eight

 

[Bemoreboyddog]

Think our losses against Blues, Suns and Saints will really bite us in the bum. Really needed to beat the Saints. Never say never but highly unlikely given our run home. Saints and Crows game will be really interesting.

 

[BEaston]

If we make it, I hope bombers finish 5th and continue their streak of losing finals games.

 

[mattwa]

I don't really rate essendon at all. We've had there measure for a while now and i think we will give them a pasting at marvel. Hardest game left is gws as they seem to always flog us. Think we are a better shot than most think this weekend

 

[Contador]

Hard to see us missing out when we don't even need to win any games to make the finals.

Gives us an easy run in the finals too.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Hard to see us missing out when we don't even need to win any games to make the finals.

Gives us an easy run in the finals too.

I Like it

And my username is optimistic dog Yours should be mission impossible.

 

[BeMoreBont]

It's actually not that big of a stretch to suggest we get in with only 2 wins from our remaining 4 games.

Adelaide can only win 1 - they will be underdogs in 3/4

Port can only win 2 - they will be outsiders in 2/4 games against Essendon and North at Marvel.

Hawks can only win 2 - they have GWS and WC both away to come.

Freo can only win 2 - they won't start favourite in any remaining fixture

Saints can only win 3 - Surely they drop atleast 1 on the way home.

 

[MYOB]

It's actually not that big of a stretch to suggest we get in with only 2 wins from our remaining 4 games.

Adelaide can only win 1 - they will be underdogs in 3/4

Port can only win 2 - they will be outsiders in 2/4 games against Essendon and North at Marvel.

Hawks can only win 2 - they have GWS and WC both away to come.

Freo can only win 2 - they won't start favourite in any remaining fixture

Saints can only win 3 - Surely they drop atleast 1 on the way home.

One important stat you forgot.

We are also the outsider in all 4 of our games.

 

[BEaston]

One important stat you forgot.

We are also the outsider in all 4 of our games.

disagree. we should be favorites against bombers (injury ravaged, hardly beat suns) and crows (terrible form, away from SA)