Prediction Our Rebuild Will Ultimately Fail - Prove Yourself Correct - 5YR Ladder Prediction

[Carmo]

Are you referring to the thread where the OP was hoping the club would fold so he could sleep more easy? And then we end up winning 3 games in a row and got 2 rising star nominations?

That and a few others....

 

[Rotayjay]

Predicting ladder finishes 5 years out is like predicting the exact temperature 5 months out - you might get in the ball park, but there are too many factors at play.

But whatever, I'll try:

2023: 5th
2024: 3rd
2025: 2nd
2026: 6th
2027: 8th

A period of contention followed by a period when the magic doesn't quite click.

 

[TheRankineFile]

Predicting ladder finishes 5 years out is like predicting the exact temperature 5 months out - you might get in the ball park, but there are too many factors at play.

But whatever, I'll try:

2023: 5th
2024: 3rd
2025: 2nd
2026: 6th
2027: 8th

A period of contention followed by a period when the magic doesn't quite click.

I am already in pain from the 2025 GF loss.

 

[PCORF]

2023: 8th
2024: 12th
2025: 3rd
2026: 8th
2027: 7th

I think 2025 will be our best chance. But the future is not easy to predict.

 

[hippyhippy]

2023: 8th
2024: 12th
2025: 3rd
2026: 8th
2027: 7th

I think 2025 will be our best chance. But the future is not easy to predict.

Why we going down in 2024?

 

[GrommoT]

Why we going down in 2024?

I asked a similar Q after Freo game and Freomaniac's reasoning was after reaching the final 8, our draw for the next year gets harder and we don't do as well.

 

[Danger in Texas]

I asked a similar Q after Freo game and Freomaniac's reasoning was after reaching the final 8, our draw for the next year gets harder and we don't do as well.

To be fair, Freo 1) reached top 6 and thus have a harder draw than 7th or 8th, and 2) have looked like they’ve genuinely gone backwards from a gameplan and talent perspective

It’ll be easier to incrementally improve if we finish in that 7-12 bracket. Which seems likely at this point, I doubt we go as far as a semi final this year

 

[GrommoT]

To be fair, Freo 1) reached top 6 and thus have a harder draw than 7th or 8th, and 2) have looked like they’ve genuinely gone backwards from a gameplan and talent perspective

It’ll be easier to incrementally improve if we finish in that 7-12 bracket. Which seems likely at this point, I doubt we go as far as a semi final this year

I'm hoping with the talent we look like we have we'll buck that trend regardless.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Our top four chances in 26/27 and beyond are certainly hinging on us getting our hands on our version of Bont/Rozee - a guy who can be an first class AA-calibre mid within three or four years. I’m confident Soligo and Berry can be a part of that rotation, hell I reckon Soligo and Berry have a very good chance of being A grade players, as it currently stands. We need that A+ guy, though

Maybe that can be Ashton Moir, if he shows more through the middle of the ground in his 18th year next season? I like Will Lorenz too

Update: we found our Bont/Rozee, and he was already on our list

Because of this, I reckon our finals window is now 2024-27, maybe this year too but there’s still water to go under the bridge. 25-26 our most likely years for premiership contention IMO

 

[FR0GGY]

To be fair, Freo 1) reached top 6 and thus have a harder draw than 7th or 8th, and 2) have looked like they’ve genuinely gone backwards from a gameplan and talent perspective

It’ll be easier to incrementally improve if we finish in that 7-12 bracket. Which seems likely at this point, I doubt we go as far as a semi final this year

It usually works like that, but when you have 4 teams from the top 8 last year not back in the 8, it’s thrown that theory out more than normal. (I think normally only 1 or 2 top 8 sides drop out each year?)

 

[AFC979810]

It usually works like that, but when you have 4 teams from the top 8 last year not back in the 8, it’s thrown that theory out more than normal. (I think normally only 1 or 2 top 8 sides drop out each year?)

Traditionally its 3 out 3 in.

Between 2016 - 2017 - there were 3
Between 2017-2018 - there were 3
Between 2018 - 2019 - there were 3
Between 2019 - 2020 - there were 2
Between 2020 - 2021 - there were 4
Between 2021 - 2022 - there were 3

 

[FR0GGY]

Traditionally its 3 out 3 in.

Between 2016 - 2017 - there were 3
Between 2017-2018 - there were 3
Between 2018 - 2019 - there were 3
Between 2019 - 2020 - there were 2
Between 2020 - 2021 - there were 4
Between 2021 - 2022 - there were 3

Oh wow, sure I’d heard people say it was only 1 or 2.

 

[AFC979810]

Oh wow, sure I’d heard people say it was only 1 or 2.

It's how I do my terrible ladder prediction each year.

Doesn't help me decipher which 3 are out and which 3 are in though.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Traditionally its 3 out 3 in.

Between 2016 - 2017 - there were 3
Between 2017-2018 - there were 3
Between 2018 - 2019 - there were 3
Between 2019 - 2020 - there were 2
Between 2020 - 2021 - there were 4
Between 2021 - 2022 - there were 3

Yeah, hence why I mostly giggle when ‘experts’ do their Top 8 predictions in Feb, guessing mostly the same teams as the year before to make finals (like 7 out of 8)

There’s always a few surprises

 

[GreyCrow]

Bump
How we all feeling? Anyone nervous they may have been exceptionally negative about our future fortunes?

Nope I reckon most got it right

 

[NSolis]

Nope I reckon most got it right

You're the only one who got it right from what I can tell. Most other early posters in the thread were guessing 12th-16th for 2023.

This year is a good example of why ladder position alone is not enough to judge how a team is trending through, so I'm not sure how useful the exercise is. We finished 14th last year and 10th this year but I think the improvement is more dramatic than those numbers would suggest. Half our wins in 2022 came against North and West Coast and we were 14th for offence and 14th for defence based on points scored/conceded and finished 14th, with the 14th best percentage. This year we are 1st for offence and somewhere about mid table for defence with the 4th best percentage, and finished 10th.

I suspect people who were tipping us to never make finals until after Nicks was sacked would have more positive expectations at this point. Finals would be an expectation next year, barring a catastrophic run of injuries or something.

 

[Tex Danger]

You're the only one who got it right from what I can tell. Most other early posters in the thread were guessing 12th-16th for 2023.

This year is a good example of why ladder position alone is not enough to judge how a team is trending through, so I'm not sure how useful the exercise is. We finished 14th last year and 10th this year but I think the improvement is more dramatic than those numbers would suggest. Half our wins in 2022 came against North and West Coast and we were 14th for offence and 14th for defence based on points scored/conceded and finished 14th, with the 14th best percentage. This year we are 1st for offence and somewhere about mid table for defence with the 4th best percentage, and finished 10th.

I suspect people who were tipping us to never make finals until after Nicks was sacked would have more positive expectations at this point. Finals would be an expectation next year, barring a catastrophic run of injuries or something.

I said pre season (not on here I don’t think) that our % would tell me more about our development than ladder position.

I could see us finishing as low as 12 and that being acceptable on our development as long as we we’re ultra competitive.

Missing finals in the way we did, and having such a strong percentage- not only because the of beating up on bad teams but as much/more because of being so close in losses to the best and throw in the fact we were the only team to play the clear top 4 7 times (and all of them away) means a lot of positives unless your choosing to look away from them.

Yes we lacked consistency that cost us a handful of games that regardless of being robbed should have walked us into finals. But that’s fully expected at this point in development, not losing by more than a goal in 7 matches against top 4 isn’t.

Next year becomes they key though, no excuses now.

 

[GrommoT]

I said pre season (not on here I don’t think) that our % would tell me more about our development than ladder position.

I could see us finishing as low as 12 and that being acceptable on our development as long as we we’re ultra competitive.

Missing finals in the way we did, and having such a strong percentage- not only because the of beating up on bad teams but as much/more because of being so close in losses to the best and throw in the fact we were the only team to play the clear top 4 7 times (and all of them away) means a lot of positives unless your choosing to look away from them.

Yes we lacked consistency that cost us a handful of games that regardless of being robbed should have walked us into finals. But that’s fully expected at this point in development, not losing by more than a goal in 7 matches against top 4 isn’t.

Next year becomes they key though, no excuses now.

And the wins we did have, just looked, they're all pretty definitive - no close wins. Flip a few of the very close losses and we're in the 8.

 

[GROTTO]

And the wins we did have, just looked, they're all pretty definitive - no close wins. Flip a few of the very close losses and we're in the 8.

Flip those losses by 1 goal or less and we are sitting 3rd on the ladder.

 

[Carmo]

Nope I reckon most got it right

Damn you, I was looking forward to bumping this. I've realised we made a bit of a mistake, we shouldve nominated games won instead of ladder position.

 

[Carmo]

Nope I reckon most got it right

Also, I dunno if you'd wanna claim most got it right.

In 2022 (done halfway thru the season) 2 ppl overestimated our ladder position, 3 got it correct, and 5 got it too low.

In 2023 3 overestimated our ladder position, two of those were ones who joined in 2023 (noting that all the 2023 joiners were more positive than the 2022ers), one got it correct and 10 got it too low.

Considering the lack of the most negative posters on this site from providing contributions, I'd say its not unreasonable that the data, although still probably too small of a dataset to make really concrete conclusions, is beginning to show that this board is overly negative. Who knew??

 

[George Kramer]

Also, I dunno if you'd wanna claim most got it right.

In 2022 (done halfway thru the season) 2 ppl overestimated our ladder position, 3 got it correct, and 5 got it too low.

In 2023 3 overestimated our ladder position, two of those were ones who joined in 2023 (noting that all the 2023 joiners were more positive than the 2022ers), one got it correct and 10 got it too low.

Considering the lack of the most negative posters on this site from providing contributions, I'd say its not unreasonable that the data, although still probably too small of a dataset to make really concrete conclusions, is beginning to show that this board is overly negative. Who knew??

View attachment 1787113View attachment 1787114

Jesus dude, that’s a lot of effort

 

[Carmo]

Jesus dude, that’s a lot of effort

I regularly spend 8hrs a day working in excel. That was 20 mins roughly.

 

[Cap]

Bravo on the thread, interesting.

I'm disappointed I didn't have a crack.

 

[George Kramer]

I regularly spend 8hrs a day working in excel. That was 20 mins roughly.

That explains a lot