Pick 1 2023 Trade value - What would it take?

[tombomb]

When a top draft pick asks for a trade earlier in his career, the team picking get screwed.

If West Coast gets pick 1 and Harley Reid is a massive flight risk, it’s better to downgrade your pick.

Not really.

North got a fair trade for Horne Francis. GWS got a fair trade for Boyd.

Just take whoever you think is the best player. Unless they literally say they aren't even going to show up for preseason training, which would be a whole other issue.

 

[Nugett]

Its going to be a very interesting draft as far as West Coast, Hawthorn and North are concerned.

One of those three teams is virtually a certainty to end up with pick 1.

All three teams clearly need a suite of high end draft picks to revitalise their teams.

Melbourne and GWS are the only clubs with the draft hand to trade for pick 1.

West Coast only have one first rounder - do they trade down to prioritise the local kids in Curtin and Edwards?

Hawthorn only have one too - would they take Reid when they could get up to 3 first rounders in return?

North are desperate for KPPs, skillful outside mids and small forwards - could they possibly pass on Harley Reid for a suite of other picks?

Meanwhile, there are just three matches left that will determine what happens to Harley Reid and one of them happens to be this weekend.

Round 10: Hawthorn vs West Coast, UTAS Stadium

Round 18: North Melbourne vs Hawthorn, Marvel Stadium

Round 20: West Coast vs North Melbourne, Optus Stadium

Hawthorn also has Will McCabe as a father son selection this year who is a top 30 prospect this year. If his trajectory keeps improving can push himself up to be a first round selection. So I think that if the Hawks were to have pick 1, they would definitely take Reid, knowing they have McCabe as another possible first/ early second.

 

[The Nostradamus]

Not really.

North got a fair trade for Horne Francis. GWS got a fair trade for Boyd.

Just take whoever you think is the best player. Unless they literally say they aren't even going to show up for preseason training, which would be a whole other issue.

i think it helped they were both contracted when they left

if jhf left end of this year out of contract i reckon we get a lot less

 

[RUNVS]

Id take this risk if I’m west coast. They are generally pretty good at keeping their interstate players.

Good call. That is why JHF is lining up for North this week.

 

[Wargreymon90]

Good call. That is why JHF is lining up for North this week.

West coast are not north. And North were compensated very well regardless

 

[RUNVS]

West coast are not north. And North were compensated very well regardless

West Coast have been crap for quite a while now.

 

[Off Tap]

Good call. That is why JHF is lining up for North this week.

West Coast have been crap for quite a while now.

Your last 2 comments make no sense in regard to the previous conversation.

 

[AETOS DIOS]

Melbourne don’t have the picks. They currently have pick 7 and 17. 7 likely turns into 8 with Walter and 17 into 19 and possibly 20 (Walter, Read and maybe McCabe). That’s before potential free agency compensation for Himmleberg, Parish or McKay and who knows if the AFL drop the Roos a mid round compensation pick

8 and 20 Melbourne’s future first gets laughed out of the room


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Van Rooyan gets the deal done with two / 3 1sts picks with something going back.

Gold Coast also with players that could be involved. I'd rather offer the Eagles 2024 F1st for the Suns 2023 plus their 2024 1st and try for a fringe player as well.

Swans could easily bid for 2023 pick 1 if at the Eagles. McDonald and Sheldrick would interest the Eagles with a blend of 1st round picks. 5 plus McDoald plus 19 or Sheldrick.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Van Rooyan gets the deal done with two / 3 1sts picks with something going back.

Gold Coast also with players that could be involved. I'd rather offer the Eagles 2024 F1st for the Suns 2023 plus their 2024 1st and try for a fringe player as well.

Swans could easily bid for 2023 pick 1 if at the Eagles. McDonald and Sheldrick would interest the Eagles with a blend of 1st round picks. 5 plus McDoald plus 19 or Sheldrick.

How do you feel about 2 and 14

 

[Wild Bill]

How do you feel about 2 and 14

If 14 becomes 10 then it’s closer. 14 won’t be enough imo. But we need Reid or Curtin more IMO.

 

[Makeshift Park]

If 14 becomes 10 then it’s closer. 14 won’t be enough imo. But we need Reid or Curtin more IMO.

Hard to see a situation where WCE trade 1 and get Curtin unless it’s a variation of that deal.

 

[AETOS DIOS]

How do you feel about 2 and 14

Would need something else.

Only because others would likely offer more.

North's F2nd for Eagles F 3rd?

Something.

 

[FB19]

Not saying we would do it as I’m not Mark
McKenzie but would hawks firsts this year and next plus DGB get it done?

 

[eastfreo75]

Not really.

North got a fair trade for Horne Francis. GWS got a fair trade for Boyd.

Just take whoever you think is the best player. Unless they literally say they aren't even going to show up for preseason training, which would be a whole other issue.

That’s only one trade.

Exceptions prove the rule.

 

[tombomb]

That’s only one trade.

Exceptions prove the rule.

Well it’s two actually.

But I can keep going if you want. Rankine, Cerra, Jackson, Taranto all got fair returns.

Where are all the examples of the team losing the high pick being screwed?

 

[The acurate one]

I think the Eagles will finish last leaving just North and the Hawks to fight out the other two spots.

I have heard the Eagles have their eyes on some WA talent. So will be interesting and leave the Eagles ina strong position. It seems everyone knows the top ten picks most years.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I have heard the Eagles have their eyes on some WA talent. So will be interesting and leave the Eagles ina strong position. It seems everyone knows the top ten picks most years.

I’m sure I’m not the only one who has heard that Harley and his manager have already planted a seed of doubt around him being a player who will be ok with heading interstate.

One Victorian club(not Hawthorn) is already suggesting that West Coast will look to trade Pick 1 because they think Harley is a flight risk and there are local talents, which is interesting, as interstate clubs generally like the idea of taking Country Vic kids as there’s generally no go home factor, and Harley seems the clear best talent.

 

[Dockeroo]

The thread is highlighting one of the great myths in AFL footy.

The overvaluing of LATE first round picks.
Take a look at the players selected from picks 13-20 over the last ten years. The amount of spuds and dud picks in that range is unbelievable. I would think there is a very low chance of picking an elite player in that range. Most of the players selected in that range are solid role playing citizens. A substantial portion are complete spuds. Teams in WCE predicament need elite talent not solid citizens.
It’s a different story for picks from 1 to about 8. The reality is there is only about 3 or 4 truly elite players in a typical ND and the vast majority of them are in the top 7 or 8 picks. When you are wining one game in 23 like the eagles could well be, you MUST ensure that you recruit one of these elite guns.
After this you are getting good players. Slow burners that could eventuate into decent AFL players. But few genuine guns.

Now we are talking about the most sought after pick 1 possibly ever?
As an absolute minimum, I’d want two top 5 picks plus an F1. Minimum.

Melbourne aren’t even inthe conversation. Don’t know why people are suggesting them? Those late teens picks they have aren’t worth Jack shit here in this potential deal. By the time draft night comes around the dockers R1 pick that Melbourne have won’t even be inthe top 10 anyway.

 

[Crow till I die]

I’m sure I’m not the only one who has heard that Harley and his manager have already planted a seed of doubt around him being a player who will be ok with heading interstate.

One Victorian club(not Hawthorn) is already suggesting that West Coast will look to trade Pick 1 because they think Harley is a flight risk and there are local talents, which is interesting, as interstate clubs generally like the idea of taking Country Vic kids as there’s generally no go home factor, and Harley seems the clear best talent.

It is a hard one for WCE. If Reid has been intimating it, then it has a JHF scenario all over it (although at the time JHF never made any mention on wanting to stay in SA) where a club like a Richmond for example has tapped Reid up so he heads over and then goes about engineering a trade back to the club he really wanted to be at and the eagles have to swallow whatever they can get.

Might be one where the Eagles say to North or Hawthorn, your 1st this year and next year ( likely 2 x top 5 picks) and we balance out a player as part of the deal (ie Grainger-Barrass type) with a return pick (Eagles 2nd rounder) to trade pick 1. Its a steep price for the hawks or North but if Reid really is projecting as high as what people are speaking of, what price a long term matchwinner

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Surely the main contender at the moment should be GWS with picks 4 and 5, unless Richmond have a huge finish to the year.

 

[WCE_phil]

North's pick 2,16 and future first for Pick 1, ports second and our future second.

 

[Makeshift Park]

North's pick 2,16 and future first for Pick 1, ports second and our future second.

Why would we do that?

If you don't think its worth going for Reid, your aim should be working a three-way deal that gets you Curtin, Tholstrup and Edwards.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

If you don't think its worth going for Reid, your aim should be working a three-way deal that gets you Curtin, Tholstrup and Edwards.

Exactly. And GWS can enable this, with their Pick 4 being used on Curtin and Pick 5 being traded down for two later firsts to get the others.

It remains to be seen whether GWS would make such a deal, but if Reid commits to moving to Sydney, they have form in trading up to Pick 1.

 

[FB19]

Exactly. And GWS can enable this, with their Pick 4 being used on Curtin and Pick 5 being traded down for two later firsts to get the others.

It remains to be seen whether GWS would make such a deal, but if Reid commits to moving to Sydney, they have form in trading up to Pick 1.

Only issue is Curtin doesn’t get to 4 IMO so feel like they would need to trade up to trade up!

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Only issue is Curtin doesn’t get to 4 IMO so feel like they would need to trade up to trade up!

A lot can happen between now and then. Curtin could drop a couple of spots. But if he doesn't, there's always North or Hawthorn to trade with.