Toast Pick #25: Welcome to the kennel Josh Dunkley

[threenewpadlocks]

Love this pick, because of the way modern footy is trending.
Modern footy is all about pressure and congestion - so you want blokes who can do it two ways - ie, blokes that can apply pressure and tackles, but are also good at playing well despite pressure.
Dunkley averaged 6 tackles a game in the TAC - sure, he's not just an inside mid, but he's a defensive inside mid (an area of players that isn't overlooked but still very important), as well as his height and body size making him hard to tackle/he maintains possession under pressure.
Throw in the fact he seems like a great team person and leadership credentials, I'm loving it.
Pretty good for the 25th odd best player in the draft Sure he might not have silky outside skills or great sprint speed, but hey, isn't that exactly the reason we drafted Dale, Hamilton, McLean, Webb and Daniel last year, all players who are "outside" types who have one or both of speed and silky skills.

 

[Doggstats]

Will turn out to be our best pick from this draft IMO. Dal already said he see's him playing forward, at 189cm, just another big bodied contested beast that can rest up forward (Dunks, Bonts, Strings), which will be so important with the sub rule gone.

 

[Igloo]

I educated myself on Dunkley today after seeing all the talk of us taking him, and I couldn't see why people were so upset at the prospect.
Happy to have him on board.

 

[fronkalicious]

I bloody love big bodied, marking mids.

And that kicking looks fine to me. Just a quick list of guys with slightly awkward kicking techniques:

Fyfe
Wines
Wallis
Dahlhaus
K Jack
Swan
Watson

He'll be fine.

 

[TMoney22]

I'm backing him in.

No guarantees with Clay and Libba and we don't have as much inside height and depth as we'd like to think. Good selection.

This is under-played a bit i reckon. We all think Libba will come back to his best, but its just a likely he doesn't. If that happens, Dunkley is a great pick up

 

[JAMES_B_101]

This is under-played a bit i reckon. We all think Libba will come back to his best, but its just a likely he doesn't. If that happens, Dunkley is a great pick up

and as painful as it is to think of, the chance of it recurring is high. We needed more inside depth so we don't have to rely on midfield by committee again.

 

[Super Hans]

Any footage of him in the vfl?

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I bloody love big bodied, marking mids.

And that kicking looks fine to me. Just a quick list of his with slightly awkward kicking techniques:

Fyfe
Wines
Wallis
Dahlhaus
K Jack
Swan
Watson

He'll be fine.

Worst case scenario, he's a big bodied, slow inside mid who is good with congestion but not that great of a kick - worst case scenario he becomes and Ed Curnow type player.
Best case scenario he's a hard-working player who can lay heaps of tackles defensively, win clearances offensively and go forward and take a mark.
Silky skills are overrated. Especially with the new 90 interchange cap the game is trending more and more to blokes who are good in congestion with strong cores and big bodies, even if these players can't kick. Just look at Tom Bell at Carlton - one of the few players who actually looked AFL standard at Carlton this year even though he can't kick the side of a barn, because he's big bodied and good in congestion.

 

[JAMES_B_101]

Worst case scenario, he's a big bodied, slow inside mid who is good with congestion but not that great of a kick - worst case scenario he becomes and Ed Curnow type player.
Best case scenario he's a hard-working player who can lay heaps of tackles defensively, win clearances offensively and go forward and take a mark.
Silky skills are overrated. Especially with the new 90 interchange cap the game is trending more and more to blokes who are good in congestion with strong cores and big bodies, even if these players can't kick. Just look at Tom Bell at Carlton - one of the few players who actually looked AFL standard at Carlton this year even though he can't kick the side of a barn, because he's big bodied and good in congestion.

Curnow is smaller and can't go forward, not a great comparison even for a worst case scenario because Dunkley will at least be able to do these two things. Had a shocking run with injuries and was thrown around in different roles for different teams. Worst case scenario he is a big bodied midfielder who can swing forward but takes a while to develop at AFL level. Best case scenario he develops quickly and provides us with something in his first year. Hard to see a player with his size/versatility failing to make the grade.

 

[Zgope1]

happy to admit he wasn't in my top 10 for preferences around our pick. That means bugger all though really. He does tick boxes i've always liked- toughness and versatility. The kick seems workable if he's a smart-ish user. I'll do more research.

Also as has been mentioned, to me he's the free whack from a very astute trade from Jmac. I'd have been fine with Collins at 11 so to get a kid who was being talked about as a top 15 pick at the year's beginning as well is just brilliant. Just did a bit of research and he was quite impressive as an underage in the champs too.

 

[Zeno The Great]

Reckon he is a low risk pick, will no doubt be a decent player, tough as nails ability to find the ball, if he can polish his skills could develop from a solid player into a very good pick possibly great pick for the club.

 

[dergert]

Good back up for clay Smith!

 

[BRWB]

Reckon he is a low risk pick, will no doubt be a decent player, tough as nails ability to find the ball, if he can polish his skills could develop from a solid player into a very good pick possibly great pick for the club.

Exactly. A very low risk pick IMO. Statistically inside mids with big bodies are always low risk. I also loved how Dunkley's old man went about it, if he brings his old mans toughness and ability to get the best out of himself he will succeed.

In the context of a draft where we've gone high risk in picking talls, getting one low risk pick in Dunkley makes a lot of sense.

Thumbs up from me.

 

[Ant_]

189cm midfielder, our guys are going to outmuscle alot of opposition.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Exactly. A very low risk pick IMO. Statistically inside mids with big bodies are always low risk. I also loved how Dunkley's old man went about it, if he brings his old mans toughness and ability to get the best out of himself he will succeed.

In the context of a draft where we've gone high risk in picking talls, getting one low risk pick in Dunkley makes a lot of sense.

Thumbs up from me.

It's funny if you statistically analyse the past drats, you'll find that inside midfielders are the most reliable.

Basically, the best key defenders in the league have come from anywhere in the draft and all the gun key forwards are nearly always top 10. With inside mids, there's a very strong correlation to the draft pick and their output - they usually "make it" and there is a relative lack of "unpredictability" about them.
People are very correct in saying this is a low-risk pick. A typical inside mid - good ball winner, big bodied, a bit slow and a bit average disposal, but a smart player - has statistically been proven in the past to be low-risk in the sense there's actually a very, very low chance that he'll be a complete bust (less than 20 total games), but seeing as he's not a top-10 or top-20 pick he's unlikely to be AA. So very low risk, he's a 90% chance to be a 100+ gamer role player just by analysing the past draft picks of inside midifelders, but there's nothing wrong with that.

 

[wian]

At around what pick did the experts rate him ?

 

[RWnBluey]

Seems like a solid pick. He certainly doesn't mind a name drop either

 

[GarnerSmash]

Reckon Dunkley will prove to be an excellent pick up in the long term. Good get.

 

[TempleKelvington]

Another father son at the dogs, but who'd a thunk it would be the Dunk?

 

[Bazza Bulldog]

I played footy at the same club as his old man (Slammer Dunkley) for 1 season (him in the seniors, me in the U/19's - but he was only 1 year older). Absolutely ripping bloke. Had an incredibly awkward kicking style (Andrew), but never missed a banana from the boundary in front of goal. Rapt to have Josh on board ... if he is anything like his dad, he is a quality kid who will get every last inch out of himself.

 

[King Harold]

Anyone remember his old man belting James Cook in that final ?
Poor old Cooky had a face like a watermelon after that incident !

 

[Zephiisdaman]

The one thing that has stood out for me with this pick, most pundits have said "he is a clutch player". When the big moments come in the big games, this bloke will stand up and embrace them. No jitters, no hesitation, just an onfield leader. Hodge, Archer, Hayes, Voss, Ratten, Diesel all had this trait and were superstars.

 

[GreatSouthWest]

Anyone remember his old man belting James Cook in that final ?
Poor old Cooky had a face like a watermelon after that incident !

Yes. Was on FF last week. Didn't even get a free kick

 

[VitalDread]

All aboard the Dunkley wagon
Number 1 fan here

 

[bobs head soup]

The one thing that has stood out for me with this pick, most pundits have said "he is a clutch player". When the big moments come in the big games, this bloke will stand up and embrace them. No jitters, no hesitation, just an onfield leader. Hodge, Archer, Hayes, Voss, Ratten, Diesel all had this trait and were superstars.

I love this trait. When the game gets tight late, just look for Bont and Wallis to impact the contest. We are building a cracking list of young leaders.