Pick Swap Completed

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starting point is as per the table in the OP then make adjustments for this trade. Lore will probably update it in a couple of hours.

I like that ATM the Crows won't have the opportunity to bid early on Mead, and Krakouer?

Unlikely they will use pick 4 on Mead, or another SA guy.
 
Unfortunately all the other clubs know how desperate we are to move 29 on so we were always going to be losing on that trade.

I’m still firmly against trading out first rounders under a bad administration though. Even if Cripps etc are making their own decisions, it’s way too hard to know that for sure and it looks like an unnecessary hail mary.

We havent traded out a first rounder.

We are just raking it a year earlier.

I’m all for getting as much talent into the club as quick as possible. This achieves that. With 2 promising kids coming through next year, we can afford to make this call now, knowing that guess what....theres another trade period next year too!
 

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What we stand to lose (a top 3 pick) is a lot more than what we stand to gain (some minor pick upgrades if all goes to plan). It's not a smart gamble.

Top 3 pick? Carn.
 
I trust our list management team...they are the only competent part of our club imho.

They have pulled off some ballsy moves...

I trust them with this one for now.

Yes I particularly liked the one where we gave away two young talls for peanuts.
 
Its not. Its a reasonable swap

I don’t get the outrage about this deal.

Pay forward a first round pick.

Give up pick 29, that we would probably have to use for a player we are committed to anyway.

Get 3 first round picks this year plus Mead.

Trade down for next year then acquire two potential first round picks in Jones and Schofield.

Am i missing somethinf?


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Hinkley era minor round wins and finishes:

14 wins x 2
12 wins x 3
11 wins x 1
10 wins x 1

5th x 2
7th x 1
9th x 1
10th x 3

I would suggest that we are going to finish somewhere in this range yet again. It's now a fairly big sample size with very consistent results. We haven't given away a top 3 pick, nor are we finishing top 4.

Yeah, except nearly all of our good players are now 30+ and it's our 18-21 year old group that will be leading our next charge because the 22-25 year olds aren't much good and the 26-29 group pretty well don't exist. Our list demographic has slide written all over it.
 
We’ve traded out 2 top 10 draft picks...

I do worry that the next trade we do gives a net result of Howard, pick 29 and a future first for pick 18 and maybe a very minor upgrade on pick 10. And that the future first ends up being a bloody good pick.

It all seems unnecessarily risky.
 

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Top 3 pick? Carn.

Potentially that's what we're losing. Notably, there's no equivalent pick that we're gambling on gaining in some other scenario - all we gain is some pick shuffling and slight upgrades.

Our list has very limited scope for improvement in the short term and a lot of scope for dropping off in the short term. I like our 21 and under group but they aren't going to improve us overnight. And there are a bunch of teams that finished below us this year who would be very confident of short term improvement. A 7 win/16th place finish is very possible - and we're taking a big punt to assume this won't happen.
 
Yeah, except nearly all of our good players are now 30+ and it's our 18-21 year old group that will be leading our next charge because the 22-25 year olds aren't much good and the 26-29 group pretty well don't exist. Our list demographic has slide written all over it.
I don't think that'll be this year. Not to the point where we'll finish bottom 3. We'll probably finish 7th-11th again.

I'm happy enough with this trade. I've been hearing all year how the 2020 draft absolutely sucks and we've traded what will likely be a mid first round pick then for a late first round pick in 2019. Good.
 
We havent traded out a first rounder.

We are just raking it a year earlier.

I’m all for getting as much talent into the club as quick as possible. This achieves that. With 2 promising kids coming through next year, we can afford to make this call now, knowing that guess what....theres another trade period next year too!
Sorry I meant future first.

The issue I have is that it’s so easy for our admin to handwave any risks, because they are gone if we miss the 8 anyway. This means there is no difference between missing the 8 and finishing bottom and losing pick one. They lose their jobs either way so it’s in their interests to get any advantage possible.

I hope that Cripps etc. aren’t acting on that basis at all but it’s hard to tell as they might go down with the Hinkley ship as well.

I don’t *hate* this trade since it’s obvious we value pick 7 in this draft way higher than 18+16 or next years first or whatever and I trust Geoff Parker. I just think other clubs have cracked onto what we are doing and demanding more in these trades now which makes me less confident.
 
Melbourne traded a future first, 26 and 50 for Pick 8. They actually DID finish bottom four.

We traded a future first, 29 and 71 for Pick 16, Pick 52, Pick 55 and Pick 70. Which is the equivalent of Pick 9.

These are trades from two clubs who don't expect that they will have a poor season next year.
 
I'm gonna lay out my pros and cons
- Means we don't use our picks in the 20s for Mead, get him for peanuts, unless someone picks him at 15 or lower

- We can bundle up some picks and get a pick around 5. All these young players around the same age for when Hinkley is sacked.

- Next years draft looks compromised. ****loads of the touted guns are tied up. Our best pickup will be Schofield as part of this, who we can nab with later picks

Cons:
- We are actually a good chance for bottom 4 looking at our age profile in 2020. I'm surprisingly optimistic for our post Hinkley future but we look really shit at this moment in time. In this case we could be missing out on a brilliant player, NGA/FS players or not.


For now I'm cautiously optimistic, purely because its evident that we're trying to build a good spine all around the same age to have a good jab at a flag in 3 - 4 years.
 

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Pick Swap Completed

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