Politics Betting Thread

[Chism]

thought this was the punting thread not the conspiracy thread?

This and the next post that is not punting related is getting deleted and the offender is getting a thread ban regardless if you are replying to someone that may have quoted you etc.

Take it to other boards that are discussing the election and it is not like it is not being discussed anywhere!

 

[HeathySure]

The Democratic VP nominee seems to have come down to Kamala Harris and Val Demings from what i have heard on a couple of different non related podcasts. Demings at $7.50 not the worst bet on Betfair

 

[NonPhixion]

Going to start following with the intent to fade, now you've outted yourself as a trump supporter.

go ahead. I frequently put my balls on the line by posting my tips on here. Think my track record speaks for itself. But you do you

 

[WWII]

I just laid Trump.

I'm hoping these protests gather a bit of momentum and result in strong voter turnout for the Democrats.

Voter apathy was one of the reasons Trump won back in 2016

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Whats anyone opinions on this race 6 weeks on? Still value in the market

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[iluvparis]

Whats anyone opinions on this race 6 weeks on? Still value in the market

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

If I wasn't already baws deep at awful prices I'd probably take Trump as a trading prop on Betfair. He is 2.86 right now - I'd green up if he got back to 2.4 and stop out if he trades through 3.00

He can still win if the virus numbers start dropping but at the moment his path to victory is looking pretty tough/impossible if they don't.

 

[HeathySure]

If I wasn't already baws deep at awful prices I'd probably take Trump as a trading prop on Betfair. He is 2.86 right now - I'd green up if he got back to 2.4 and stop out if he trades through 3.00

He can still win if the virus numbers start dropping but at the moment his path to victory is looking pretty tough/impossible if they don't.

I am not so sure he can win anymore. Even the republicans have turned against him with factions like the Lincoln Project and others and they will get enough of the right to vote against him in the states that count. Legit 10s pop right now IMO and laying him is the way to go because i think He will come in for sure as it gets closer to the election as everyone has bad memories of the last election!

 

[IKnowtheDog]

I am not so sure he can win anymore. Even the republicans have turned against him with factions like the Lincoln Project and others and they will get enough of the right to vote against him in the states that count. Legit 10s pop right now IMO and laying him is the way to go because i think He will come in for sure as it gets closer to the election as everyone has bad memories of the last election!

Think there was a few people with happy memories of the last election results

 

[checkraiseulite]

back to pick em this morning on betfair

have to feel like, as counter intuitive as it may seem, these protests etc are really helping trump

 

[iluvparis]

Interesting the betting markets have gone so large with the polls not moving too much.

 

[checkraiseulite]

polls are of limited value

the climate is such that very few will admit to voting for trump until it comes to vote

 

[iluvparis]

polls are of limited value

the climate is such that very few will admit to voting for trump until it comes to vote

That seems like a complete and utter myth.

 

[checkraiseulite]

That seems like a complete and utter myth.

the last elections here and in the US and brexit seem to suggest otherwise.

 

[iluvparis]

the last elections here and in the US and brexit seem to suggest otherwise.

Err wut? The last election polls predicted the popular vote almost perfectly - it was just out in a few states which happened to be enough for Trump to win the electoral college.

 

[checkraiseulite]

Err wut? The last election polls predicted the popular vote almost perfectly - it was just out in a few states which happened to be enough for Trump to win the electoral college.

the polls for who would win the presidency and not the popular vote were way off.

seems there is some debate about the “shy trump” effect with conflicting studies.

my own opinion is it’s definitely a thing and polling will always favour left wing candidates, at least in the current political climate.

 

[HeathySure]

the polls for who would win the presidency and not the popular vote were way off.

seems there is some debate about the “shy trump” effect with conflicting studies.

my own opinion is it’s definitely a thing and polling will always favour left wing candidates, at least in the current political climate.

Trump could get 40 percent of the votes and still win. Thats why its dangerous to bet on this. Polling is going the same as last time, if you could bet on pure votes i would put the line at Biden plus 5 million but that still doesn't guarantee a Biden win

 

[iluvparis]

the polls for who would win the presidency and not the popular vote were way off.

seems there is some debate about the “shy trump” effect with conflicting studies.

my own opinion is it’s definitely a thing and polling will always favour left wing candidates, at least in the current political climate.

This is complete and utterly false as I just pointed out - feel free to point out otherwise. Most thought there was around a 30% chance Trump could win the presidency. That is not 'way off'. As I said - the popular vote was predicted almost perfectly by the polls.

But trusting your 'opinion' over factual evidence does seem to be all the rage these days

 

[checkraiseulite]

As I said - the popular vote was predicted almost perfectly by the polls.

But trusting your 'opinion' over factual evidence does seem to be all the rage these days

i can’t be bothered to dig but i’m almost certain the polls weren’t as accurate as you seem to think they were.

feel free to show me some factual evidence and i may admit i was/am wrong.

 

[iluvparis]

i can’t be bothered to dig but i’m almost certain the polls weren’t as accurate as you seem to think they were.

feel free to show me some factual evidence and i may admit i was/am wrong.

Not surprised you are keeping your head in the sand and refusing to do any work

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election

 

[checkraiseulite]

The Polls Missed Trump. We Asked Pollsters Why.

The polls missed Donald Trump’s election. Individual polls missed, at the state level and nationally (though national polls weren’t far off). So did aggregated …

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[checkraiseulite]

The Polls Missed Trump. We Asked Pollsters Why.

The polls missed Donald Trump’s election. Individual polls missed, at the state level and nationally (though national polls weren’t far off). So did aggregated …

fivethirtyeight.com

And the bigger the lead we forecast for Trump, the more he outperformed his polls.2 In the average state won by Trump, the polls missed by an average of 7.4 percentage points (in either direction); in Clinton states, they missed by an average of 3.7 points.

 

[iluvparis]

And the bigger the lead we forecast for Trump, the more he outperformed his polls.2 In the average state won by Trump, the polls missed by an average of 7.4 percentage points (in either direction); in Clinton states, they missed by an average of 3.7 points.

You didn't look at the links i sent you and the point I made did you.

 

[checkraiseulite]

You didn't look at the links i sent you and the point I made did you.

the core point i made was polls undervalue trump (and other conservative options) in the context of a difference between betting markets and polls. nothing you have posted directly deals with this proposition.

the link i posted (from the same poll-friendly source)deals with it:

We emailed dozens of pollsters — the same group we’ve polled regularlysince 2014 about their work — early Wednesday for their first impressions. Nearly 20 got back to us by early afternoon.

“We may be looking at a 4-point or so national miss – which as noted in the past by FiveThirtyEight is not an insane level of error, but it is real error and the public’s right to question polls is justified,” said Nick Gourevitch of Global Strategy Group.

Several pollsters rejected the idea that Trump voters were too shy to tells pollsters whom they were supporting. But James Lee of Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. said his firm combined live-interview and automated-dialer calls, and Trump did better when voters were sharing their voting intention with a recorded voice rather than a live one.

Women who voted for Trump might have been especially reluctant to tell pollsters, said David Paleologos of Suffolk University. The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll corroborated that: “Women who said they backed Trump were particularly less likely to say they would be comfortable talking to a pollster about their vote.”

Gourevitch offered a theory for why polls underestimated Trump support: “that some percentage of the Trump vote is distrustful of institutions and distrustful of poll calls.”

to say that a poll aggregator said he had a 28% chance of winning the election (on the day of the election - noting it was significant less in the immediate lead up) and that the national popular vote prediction was nearly accurate does not defeat my point and we are now arguing about nothing.

your link shows poll aggregators assessed the chance of trump losing popular vote and wing electoral college at 10.5%

if we (unfairly) multiply the implied probabilities taken from the key states (many of which polls said were not even in play) in state polling data you posted, the chance of trump winning the way he did was >100:1.

my view remains trump will do better than polls currently show for a number of reasons including the silent majority or shy trump effect. this is likely priced into betting markets explaining, to some degree, the difference.

 

[checkraiseulite]

another interesting article

Democrats cannot rule out Trump victory

Pinning hopes on positive polls puts party in danger of ignoring the lessons of 2016

www.ft.com

 

[mookieb]

I am not so sure he can win anymore. Even the republicans have turned against him with factions like the Lincoln Project and others and they will get enough of the right to vote against him in the states that count. Legit 10s pop right now IMO and laying him is the way to go because i think He will come in for sure as it gets closer to the election as everyone has bad memories of the last election!

The recent dramas has given Trump the perfect "law and order" election slogan that should gain traction. Democrats are pretty much allowing looting and rioting to occur and likely to continue to cave in to hard left factions. That plus the fact that Biden is probably the worst candidate they could have put out since...Hilary Clinton. Seriously have you heard him speak when he is off the teleprompter?

So Biden probably senile and Trump is a massive narcissist who can't stop saying stupid things. Might be another surprise result.

I'm going to bet on Biden because I thing he'll win, but if he loses i'll get just as much satisfaction from watching a complete left wing snowflake meltdown. win / win.

 

[iluvparis]

The recent dramas has given Trump the perfect "law and order" election slogan that should gain traction. Democrats are pretty much allowing looting and rioting to occur and likely to continue to cave in to hard left factions. That plus the fact that Biden is probably the worst candidate they could have put out since...Hilary Clinton. Seriously have you heard him speak when he is off the teleprompter?

So Biden probably senile and Trump is a massive narcissist who can't stop saying stupid things. Might be another surprise result.

I'm going to bet on Biden because I thing he'll win, but if he loses i'll get just as much satisfaction from watching a complete left wing snowflake meltdown. win / win.

Do tell how it is the Democrats that are allowing this to occur?