Politics Betting Thread

[Chism]

thought this was the punting thread not the conspiracy thread?

This and the next post that is not punting related is getting deleted and the offender is getting a thread ban regardless if you are replying to someone that may have quoted you etc.

Take it to other boards that are discussing the election and it is not like it is not being discussed anywhere!

 

[iDon]

Latest Polls 2024 | RealClearPolling

Stay up to date on all the latest 2024 election and state of the union polls. Gain valuable insights into the evolving political landscape and stay ahead of the latest trends.

www.realclearpolling.com

Harris lead down to 0.7 nationally

"RCP receives its most traffic during election seasons and is known for its aggregation of polling data.[7][8][9] In 2008, the site's founders said their goal was to give readers "ideological diversity", although in recent years it has become more associated with conservatism and the political right.[10][11]"

You must be careful on where you source your data from. This poll along with many are leaning one way or another.

 

[maskmcgee]

Anti-Trump pollsters CNN and NYT Polls released today both have Trump tied nationally, bringing the average to a tie as well.

 

[asanque]

I am somewhat surprised at the lack of detailed analysis so far on the US election.

The good news for punters is that there are even more options to get the best odds (Polymarket, Kalshi etc.).

I actually think this is one of these blue moon opportunities from a betting perspective, where you are almost guaranteed to make money no matter who you think will win.

We are in a very interesting period with some of the early vote in but with a lot of different ways to interpret the data.

I will drop my predicted map closer to election date.

You can check my posts from 2020 as to my track record.

I'll just leave this here as part of the 2020 port mortem:
How Offshore Oddsmakers Made a Killing off Gullible Trump Supporters

 

[maskmcgee]

Polymarket

That's likely illegal in Australia, however the law only seems to apply any penalties to the bookmaker not the punter. But is income from illegal gambling tax free like legal gambling?

 

[ash_1050]

Harris out to $1.50 to win the popular vote on Sportsbet/B365 and $1.54 on Betfair.

Have thrown some more money at it.

 

[maskmcgee]

Sportsbet have a market for Harris to win the popular vote and Trump the election paying $2.60 - I think the popular vote for Harris is a certanty, could hedge that with Harris to win the election for $2.50 and create infinite money

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Sportsbet have a market for Harris to win the popular vote and Trump the election paying $2.60 - I think the popular vote for Harris is a certanty, could hedge that with Harris to win the election for $2.50 and create infinite money

What if Trump gets assassinated?

 

[Jammer]

Harris is a back for me when she hits $3 on Betfair. ( probably in the coming days )
Trump and Trump candidates have a shocking record post 2016 election win.

He had the advantage of being a disruptor clean skin back then... not anymore.
Just think its going to tough to win enough of the 10/15% of independents who decide the election.

$1.60 Harris Popular vote winner is a bet for me also. 1 Republican winner in the last 7 elections.
Even Clinton beat Trump in 2016 and she was despised by many.

 

[maskmcgee]

What if Trump gets assassinated?

It's Sportsnet so probably justice refund

 

[ash_1050]

What if Trump gets assassinated?

More likely to die from too many hamburders than be assassinated at this point.

Given we're a week out I'd peg either of those chances firmly above 1000/1 between now and this time next week.

 

[ep2018]

Kamala will win easily imo, her odds right now are mind blowing. With abortion rights on the line I cant see Trump winning.

Just keep in mind tho, I notice a few bookies (in the US politics section of the rules/TOS) have time of payout based on the loser conceding. Trump will not concede. You might be waiting until January (when electors formally vote) to be paid out.

 

[ash_1050]

Kamala popular vote crunched into $1.25 on B365 and $1.30 on Betfair. Glad I got on at $1.40-$1.55.

 

[maskmcgee]

Crystal Ball's final prediction is in

 

[maskmcgee]

Got 50u on Harris to win popular vote, 50U on Harris to win, 10U on Harris to win Pennsylvania. As you can tell by those bets I want Trump to win but I believe Harris will. Feels like a late breaking landslide to Harris is possible here. As much as Trump's been competitive in all the swing state polls, he still has to win a blue wall state and hold a bunch of other Biden states. But I agree with the Crystal Ball, anything from a Trump sweep of the swing states to a Kamala landslide is possible and either one winning wouldn't be too surprising.

That said my 'feeling' hasn't had a great track record. I felt Clinton would win in 2016, that the 'Blue Wave' in 2018 would be more of a mirage, that Biden would win easily in 2020, when he only barely won, and that there'd be a red wave in 2022, but there wasn't. So who knows.

 

[taurus]

I have been on Trump losing and Harris winning on Betfair for the most of the year. The biggest bet of my punting hobby.

I'm not confident at all.

 

[asanque]

Very tough election to predict this year.

Unfortunately, most of the value has gone after last week (e.g. Popular vote $1.50+)

Predicted Map

Repubs have seemingly done better in locking in early votes this time around and the Dems are lagging in some key locations.

As a consequence of the above, right now Trump is a deserved betting favourite.

However, this just may be one of these unicorn elections where the Dems have a better election day turnout.

In addition, my gut feel is that independents will break significantly more to the Dems than polls are indicating, hence the map.

However, I would not be surprised at all if Trump wins Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia and Pennslyvania if Dem turnout is low on election day.

I'm currently guessing that turnout will be above 2016 and just below 2020.

We will know a lot more during voting tomorrow and I might tinker with the map, but this is my current fearless pre-vote prediction.

Happy to answer any questions as to how I landed where I did.

For example: Nevada is simply following John Ralston the elections guru for that state etc.

 

[maskmcgee]

The Iowa Ann Seltzer poll is what has me thinking this may be going Harris' way. This poll was far off other polls in 2016 and 2020 yet after the election proved to be by far the most accurate poll of Iowa and a sign of what was happening in other states, and it says Harris is winning Iowa 47-44. This is 10-15% off every other poll of Iowa. If this poll was wrong, and Trump won Iowa by 10%, her reputation would be destroyed. So for her to publish this and not throw it out and poll again or keep polling until the numbers looked more accurate and instead basically stake her career on this poll she must be pretty sure about it. Even if the poll is wrong if its closer than any other to the actual outcome then it would mean Trump had been over polled and could spell a hidden landslide for Harris. And Iowa's a late closer, I think it's the most eastern 10pm closing state by 500 miles, so by the time we learn how right it was the result will probably already be clearly heading one way.

 

[taurus]

So I consulted my semi professional psychic friend. She sent me a copy of NSW Astrology Association newsletter which covered US election. Apparently both candidates' charts are so similar that there is no favourable one.

Flip a coin.

 

[maskmcgee]

Harris has blown out to $2.48 overnight.