Politics Betting Thread

[Chism]

thought this was the punting thread not the conspiracy thread?

This and the next post that is not punting related is getting deleted and the offender is getting a thread ban regardless if you are replying to someone that may have quoted you etc.

Take it to other boards that are discussing the election and it is not like it is not being discussed anywhere!

 

[iDon]

Latest Polls 2024 | RealClearPolling

Stay up to date on all the latest 2024 election and state of the union polls. Gain valuable insights into the evolving political landscape and stay ahead of the latest trends.

www.realclearpolling.com

Harris lead down to 0.7 nationally

"RCP receives its most traffic during election seasons and is known for its aggregation of polling data.[7][8][9] In 2008, the site's founders said their goal was to give readers "ideological diversity", although in recent years it has become more associated with conservatism and the political right.[10][11]"

You must be careful on where you source your data from. This poll along with many are leaning one way or another.

 

[maskmcgee]

Anti-Trump pollsters CNN and NYT Polls released today both have Trump tied nationally, bringing the average to a tie as well.

 

[asanque]

I am somewhat surprised at the lack of detailed analysis so far on the US election.

The good news for punters is that there are even more options to get the best odds (Polymarket, Kalshi etc.).

I actually think this is one of these blue moon opportunities from a betting perspective, where you are almost guaranteed to make money no matter who you think will win.

We are in a very interesting period with some of the early vote in but with a lot of different ways to interpret the data.

I will drop my predicted map closer to election date.

You can check my posts from 2020 as to my track record.

I'll just leave this here as part of the 2020 port mortem:
How Offshore Oddsmakers Made a Killing off Gullible Trump Supporters

 

[maskmcgee]

Polymarket

That's likely illegal in Australia, however the law only seems to apply any penalties to the bookmaker not the punter. But is income from illegal gambling tax free like legal gambling?

 

[ash_1050]

Harris out to $1.50 to win the popular vote on Sportsbet/B365 and $1.54 on Betfair.

Have thrown some more money at it.