Polls Thread Mk III

[DaRick]

Nice evasion of the surf and turf allegation....

Seriously, I had to look that up.

 

[NSWCROW]

I can smell fear. You’re **** ting yourself, aren’t you?

How did you get that from my post ?

palmer and on lost 1 each and libs went up 2 , you think a bunch of labor voters decided to jump ship and the on/palmer voters got Thanos'd ??

I think you were just hanging out to say that and didn't care WHAT post of mine you responded to.


What do you reckon everyone else , amirite ? ( on lebs comment , not my on/palmer theory )

 

[Lebbo73]

How did you get that from my post ?

palmer and on lost 1 each and libs went up 2 , you think a bunch of labor voters decided to jump ship and the on/palmer voters got Thanos'd ??

I think you were just hanging out to say that and didn't care WHAT post of mine you responded to.


What do you reckon everyone else , amirite ? ( on lebs comment , not my on/palmer theory )

You’re losing your marbles. Just relax, Labor have this in the bag. Don’t fall apart on me now.

 

[NSWCROW]

You’re losing your marbles. Just relax, Labor have this in the bag. Don’t fall apart on me now.

I'm fine mate.
I'm cautiously optimistic and have been since the campaign started.

I'm nearly the only one on here who hasn't made a bold prediction one way or another.

 

[Golden Hour]

Get Up saying there is only about 400 votes in it, in his favour, they think they can turn it around

Just got a message from a family member about “how labor sold land in WA to China”. Fear campaign in full mode.

 

[nylexbandit]

Just got a message from a family member about “how labor sold land in WA to China”. Fear campaign in full mode.

You have to love that it’s Palmer running that, when he is literally the one who sold significant Australian assets to the Chinese. It’s practically the sole source of his wealth, and part of the reason he seems to be running the anti foreign ownership argument is as he is seeking a large payment to sell more land to them (I.e enable them to expand to build new tailings dams)

 

[GoldenSky]

When's the final Newspoll out?

 

[Trucker Tiger]

When's the final Newspoll out?

After Rupert wakes up.

 

[John Bonney]

Once they have fudged the results to equal 50-50.

 

[Craven Morehead]

Seriously what is the issue with Queenslanders? Can't be ****** getting rid of Dutton, home of every white wing nutbag minor party you can throw a rock at, have surf and turf at every restaurant in the CBD

Yeah but...
Nah, I've got nothing.

Nice evasion of the surf and turf allegation....

Our pub doesn't have surf and turf.
But no-one eats at that shithole anyway.

 

[Generalissimo]

Once they have fudged the results to equal 50-50.

So, 2025?

 

[John Bonney]

Huh ?

 

[John Bonney]

So, 2025?

Huh ?

 

[Generalissimo]

Huh ?

I'm saying it'll be two terms before anyone can plausibly claim 50-50. I hate having to explain a joke- it tends to ruin them and honestly this one wasn't so great to begin with.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

There's an interesting article about the coalescing of all of the polls to one consistent point, and how that hasn't ever happened before. They're all at 51ish-49ish and have been for 3 weeks, but there have always been outliers in the past. The thought isn't that pollsters are "getting better" at polling, but moreso that pollsters manipulate rounding or alter preference flows. Not to control a narrative but moreso to herd the polls. They can all claim "Well, we weren't the only ones wrong!" if the result doesn't match the polls.

Ultimately, meaning that there is a decent chance of a result tomorrow that doesn't reflect the polls one way or the other.

Even all these seat polls seem to be clustered around 50-50 (in the blameless range of 'we said anybody could win.') No outliers on seat polls of ~500 voters?

Seems fishy. I'm steeling myself for tomorrow to go very differently either way.

 

[Juddism]

I'm going to go with a 2.5% swing to the ALP nationwide.

 

[NSWCROW]

newspoll should be out by now

 

[Trucker Tiger]

You know what it will be Crow.

Headline: Cliffhanger = 50-50 split

 

[Trucker Tiger]

Headline: Cliffhanger = 50-50 split

Or not. I'll see myself out.

 

[Generalissimo]

 

[NSWCROW]

Happily wrong on my 50-50 call

 

[Hank Scorpion]

56 consectuive Newspoll losses.

If this somehow finishes as anything other than a comfortable ALP majority...

 

[NSWCROW]

 

[NSWCROW]

 

[NSWCROW]

3008 voters
2108 interviews
From midday wed to thurs ( pre Bob )
MOE 1.8%