Polls Thread Mk III

[NSWCROW]

I was looking at the seat by seat betting odds (sportsbet) to use them to estimate the expected number of seats won (ignoring that this is a highly questionable method).

On the national level it give ALP - 80 .1, LNP - 61.4, GRN - 2.9, Other 6.6 (nothing unexpected).

The most interest thing was the expected results for Queensland and Victoria.

In Queensland, the LNP is expected to win 4.9 seats than the ALP (LNP 16.5, ALP 11.7, Other 1.4, GRN 0.4).

For Victoria, ALP is expected to win by 11.7 seats (ALP 23.3, LNP 11.7, GRN 2.3, Other 0.7).

Based on the state 2PP polls, that would suggest the Queensland electoral map is biased to the LNP, and the Victorian map is biased towards the ALP.

iirc when i did the same thing about 3 weeks back it had ALP on 88

 

[Hornberger]

Maybe correct for qld, but not vic. I think the margin of 2pp is meant to be between 4-8% in favour of labour? You'd expect them to win twice as many seats on that sort of margin.

I can't recall it exactly, but it something like the ratio of 2PP squared ( i.e. 0.54^2 / 0.46^2 = 1.37) gives you an approximation for expected the seat distribution. So Victoria ratio of ~2:1 seems off to me.

 

[Fire]

I can't recall it exactly, but it something like the ratio of 2PP squared ( i.e. 0.54^2 / 0.46^2 = 1.37) gives you an approximation for expected the seat distribution. So Victoria ratio of ~2:1 seems off to me.

well there you go, thats pretty interesting, thanks XD

 

[Hornberger]

well there you go, thats pretty interesting, thanks XD

For an easy reference, the 2018 state election was 57/43 and the resulted in a 2:1 spilt for the seats.

 

[Juddism]

NewsCorp held out on 51-49 for a few weeks hoping for it to tighten towards 50-50. When that didn't happen, a quick revision now to 51.5-48.5, which allows them to save face when the result will prob be 52.5-47.5 or 52-48, thereby still being within 1% correct on the Labor vote.

In other words nothing has changed in 5 years. I'll stick with 2.5% swing to ALP.

 

[Juddism]

Given that ALP already holds 72 seats it's not going to take much to get over the line. That's factoring in the notional seats like Corangamite.

 

[tandino]

Well that was 204 pages well spent.

 

[Lebbo73]

The poll that counts was 50.7 to 49.3 (I think) the last time I saw it in favour of the Coalition.

 

[Visions]

Well that was 204 pages well spent.

When does the first Newspoll come out after an election? I wonder if they will massage the figures towards the Coalition to save face or just keep the losing streak going?

 

[tandino]

When does the first Newspoll come out after an election? I wonder if they will massage the figures towards the Coalition to save face or just keep the losing streak going?

Well Antony made a good point, maybe the weighting’s were out of whack.

 

[DaRick]

Well Antony made a good point, maybe the weighting’s were out of whack.

Would make a lot of sense.

In QLD, it wasn't so much that the LNP increased their vote, but that ON/UAP diverted votes away from the ALP and preferenced the LNP.

 

[Vader]

Well Antony made a good point, maybe the weighting’s were out of whack.

The pollsters got almost everything wrong.

• They predicted the ALP's primary vote would be around 37-38. It ended up being 33.5% (give or take).
• They predicted a 4% swing to Labor in Queensland. Reality was a 4% swing against Labor.
• They predicted a 2PP of 1.5% in favour of Labor (Newspoll yesterday), it's currently 0.9% in favour of the LNP.

It's not just a case of weightings, at least not in terms of calculating preferences. They massively overestimated the ALP's primary vote by around 4%.

 

[Fire]

In QLD, it wasn't so much that the LNP increased their vote, but that ON/UAP diverted votes away from the ALP and preferenced the LNP.

I was a little concerned this may happen, but it's not what happened at all.

The primary votes were off. The liberals had eat more, and labour way less, than all the polls were predicting. They were simply wrong.

This is a bigger shock than Trump in 2016. In the US its harder to gauge the electorate because motivation is a factor. That and Clinton comfortably won the popular vote so tgey were only really wrong on distribution.

Whereas here they were just on the wrong planet. They didn't get anything right. In Queensland they were off by 8%.

This is the kind of upset that would sniff of tampering; except it happened so completley universally that there's no way it's not legit.

Perhaps voters changed their minds last minute in droves for no clear reason.

But I think everyone was wrong. Including internal polls. No one knows what the **** just happened. But it has nothing to do with pup voters.

 

[Bicks]

The pollsters got almost everything wrong.

• They predicted the ALP's primary vote would be around 37-38. It ended up being 33.5% (give or take).
• They predicted a 4% swing to Labor in Queensland. Reality was a 4% swing against Labor.
• They predicted a 2PP of 1.5% in favour of Labor (Newspoll yesterday), it's currently 0.9% in favour of the LNP.

It's not just a case of weightings, at least not in terms of calculating preferences. They massively overestimated the ALP's primary vote by around 4%.

Not nearly as wrong as you old mate....Goes alright that ScoMo bloke eh?

What ya reckon Elite Crow

 

[Pessimistic]

The jokes on the PMs who were knifed on the basis of ‘polling’

I hear Annabelle crabb made that point

 

[Vader]

Not nearly as wrong as you old mate....Goes alright that ScoMo bloke eh?

What ya reckon Elite Crow

He's still a happy clappy slogan bogan coal loving neanderthal, but apparently the majority of Australians (most notably Queenslanders) fell for his schtick. I'm beginning to think that Australia, if not the world, would be a better place if someone sawed Queensland off from the rest of the country and fired the whole state into the sun. At best we need to introduce sterility drugs into the water supply up there, to stop these idiots from breeding.

 

[Pessimistic]

Did anyone hear the nuts and bolts of pre polling?
(Insiders wondered if Hawks had pre polled)

 

[Bicks]

He's still a happy clappy slogan bogan coal loving neanderthal, but apparently the majority of Australians (most notably Queenslanders) fell for his schtick. I'm beginning to think that Australia, if not the world, would be a better place if someone sawed Queensland off from the rest of the country and fired the whole state into the sun. At best we need to introduce sterility drugs into the water supply up there, to stop these idiots from breeding.

And like all lefties you still don't get it, Trump happened, Brexit happened and now Morrison has happened and you've learnt nothing. Shorten and his offsider like you took the Australian people for mugs and paid the ultimate price. You need to get out of your Canberra bubble and experience some real living, breathing people.

 

[Bicks]

He's still a happy clappy slogan bogan coal loving neanderthal, but apparently the majority of Australians (most notably Queenslanders) fell for his schtick. I'm beginning to think that Australia, if not the world, would be a better place if someone sawed Queensland off from the rest of the country and fired the whole state into the sun. At best we need to introduce sterility drugs into the water supply up there, to stop these idiots from breeding.

And another one you got spectacularly wrong just up the road in NSW.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Close the thread - fat lot of good this is.

Brexit/Trump comparisons aren't relevant because this is significantly worse. Brexit was within MoE, Trump still lost the popular vote and won based on regional variation. And neither dealt with compulsory voting.


There hasn't been a single public or internal poll showing anything resembling what happened last night. Not a single one over the past three years. Until the pollsters can come up with an explanation as to why they've gone completely off the deep end during this last term - they shouldn't be used in an punditry or discussion.

 

[NTRabbit]

An extreme version of shy tory factor maybe, a large cohort of boomers too ashamed to admit to anyone just how craven their greed is, even to pollsters.

Queensland though is something else entirely.

 

[GoldenSky]

There hasn't been a single public or internal poll showing anything resembling what happened last night. Not a single one over the past three years. Until the pollsters can come up with an explanation as to why they've gone completely off the deep end during this last term - they shouldn't be used in an punditry or discussion.

Interestingly Ipsos always had a low Labor primary vote about 33% but David Crowe, their main writer, always wrote it off as out of step with most other polls.

 

[Bicks]

An extreme version of shy tory factor maybe, a large cohort of boomers too ashamed to admit to anyone just how craven their greed is, even to pollsters.

Queensland though is something else entirely.

Sam gets it, maybe for the first time in his life, pity you and your ilk still don't.....now you have a good day won't you.....Boomers we might be, but the silent majority have triumphed and you've got nothing.

 

[ShanDog]

Close the thread - fat lot of good this is.

Brexit/Trump comparisons aren't relevant because this is significantly worse. Brexit was within MoE, Trump still lost the popular vote and won based on regional variation. And neither dealt with compulsory voting.


There hasn't been a single public or internal poll showing anything resembling what happened last night. Not a single one over the past three years. Until the pollsters can come up with an explanation as to why they've gone completely off the deep end during this last term - they shouldn't be used in an punditry or discussion.

I think it's very straightforward. Pundits have successfully created a narrative where voting centre-right makes you fair target for all manner of insults and questions about your character. The moral superiority card in full effect. Therefore, more people who intend to vote right wing lie or simply don't say anything about their intention compared to left wing voters, casting their vote in silence. Enough of this happens to skew the polls. And I say this as someone who voted Labor and is disappointed at the result.

 

[Craven Morehead]

He's still a happy clappy slogan bogan coal loving neanderthal, but apparently the majority of Australians (most notably Queenslanders) fell for his schtick. I'm beginning to think that Australia, if not the world, would be a better place if someone sawed Queensland off from the rest of the country and fired the whole state into the sun. At best we need to introduce sterility drugs into the water supply up there, to stop these idiots from breeding.

LOL!
That's quite a lot of irrational hate for a certain section of your fellow countrymen.
It's an election, not a f***ing war!