Ah but it has been revealed this week that polling companies were actually junking polls they had compiled which didn't meet their expectations...ie. there was "herding" going on and therefore the polling was following the media commentary, not the other way around.
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Polls Thread Mk III
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Ah but it has been revealed this week that polling companies were actually junking polls they had compiled which didn't meet their expectations...ie. there was "herding" going on and therefore the polling was following the media commentary, not the other way around.
There was a swing to Labor and the polls suggested that?
Something's wrong, the total swing = 1.2%
iluvparis
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The final news poll was 53.5 v 46.5 against a final result of 57.3 v 42.7. A margin of error far FAR worse than observed in the Federal election.
Just an attempted cover up by the fascist right wing VIC press I guess?
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Now you are talking sense. I support any proposal for a Royal Commission into corruption in the media.
Some interesting info here about margins
http://www.switzer.com.au/the-exper...m_medium=newsletter&utm_source=switzer-weekly
http://www.switzer.com.au/the-exper...m_medium=newsletter&utm_source=switzer-weekly
McKerras is the doyen!
Here's another brilliant pseph - John Black. Home website: https://www.elaborate.net.au/category/election-profiles/
"Statistically speaking, here’s what really happened, possums
Labor started the count on May 18 with nearly 49.9 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote and late on Sunday it had seen a swing against it of 1 per cent, leaving it on 48.9 per cent. All the modelling for this story is based on the Sunday afternoon 2PP figures, including those for the chart (right).
When we ranked the swings to Labor by seat, they averaged about 1 per cent and the range was 20 per cent, highlighting the usual nonsense of relying on average swings and a pendulum to predict results.
As usual, in this election the range of swings would determine the result, not the average swing, because with a small average swing and a big range, the old swing pendulum more or less remains fixed, and the individual seats scurry back and forth across it in distinct demographic clusters. The bigger the demographic cluster across marginal seats, the less useful the pendulum becomes as a predictor. The bottom line is, any major party on between 49 per cent and 51 per cent of the 2PP vote in 2019 could win the election, with a range of 20 per cent. It’s all about the efficiency of the major parties’ campaigns, and the more you can leverage your swings across the marginal seats, the more seats you can win from a smaller national vote.
GRAPHIC: Win some, lose more
So, our first step was to measure the efficiency of the ALP campaign and, to start this process, we correlated the 2PP swings to Labor with the previous Labor vote and it was significantly positive to 99 per cent confidence levels.
This meant the ALP campaign had been preaching to the converted, boosting safe seats already held by Labor, at the expense of the marginals.
We checked this by ranking the swings to and from Labor across all seats and we found very few Liberal marginals with swings of 3 per cent or more to the ALP. The only gain here for Labor’s campaign was Gilmore, on 49.3 per cent for the ALP in 2016, won on a 3.6 per cent swing.
The Liberal marginal seat of Chisholm looked OK for Labor on the night, but faded from contention later in the week. The only other “gains” for Labor on the night, Dunkley and Corangamite, had been created by the redistribution commissioners.
Conversely, when we checked the biggest 2PP swings to the Coalition, we found lots of marginal Liberal and marginal Labor seats from 2016 that were eminently winnable for Labor or the Liberals.
The 30 or so marginal seats swinging the most to the Coalition included 10 2016 marginal seats, within 1 or 2 per cent of victory for either major party. In these seats the swing to the Coalition averaged 5.7 per cent and the swings ranged from 3.9 per cent to 11.3 per cent.
This strong pro-Liberal range of swings among marginal seats smashed like a wrecking ball through Labor marginals and this was where Labor lost the election last Saturday, shedding four Labor marginals, one near-marginal and failing to pick up five Liberal marginals. Labor lost Longman on 50.8 per cent for Labor in 2016, Braddon (51.7 per cent), Lindsay (51.1 per cent) and Herbert (50.02 per cent). Labor also lost the less marginal seat of Bass, on 55.4 per cent in 2016.
Labor also failed to win the marginal Liberal seats of Dawson (46.6 per cent) for Labor in 2016, Forde (49.4 per cent), Petrie (48.4 per cent), Banks (48.6 per cent), Flynn (49 per cent).
Labor just had to get the big swings to it in the marginals seats and let the other party waste their votes in their safe seats. In other words, run an efficient campaign. This is exactly what the ALP campaign failed to do. The Coalition campaign, however, did just that and this was why the Coalition won and why Labor lost."
NoCookies | The Australian
DR - this was a pretty amazing election result .... imo Labor, having moved significantly to the Wet side since Abbott, is now having to move back to the Dry ...
what say you comrade?
what say you comrade?
1.5 months on since the election and no Newspoll? Are they in hiding now? Did I hear correctly that the guys behind the left leaning YouGov in the UK were polling for Labor and Newspoll? No wonder they got it so wrong. 
Bradesmaen
TheBrownDog
Do you ever get tired of being wrong and saying the word left? The CEO and founder of YouGov is a former Conservative party candidate.. literally shone a light your stupidity right there.1.5 months on since the election and no Newspoll? Are they in hiding now? Did I hear correctly that the guys behind the left leaning YouGov in the UK were polling for Labor and Newspoll? No wonder they got it so wrong.
All YouGov content and responses are left-leaning - sorry, but Australians must be aware before they get this incompetent outfit to poll for our federal politics again.
Bradesmaen
TheBrownDog
Hahahaha, You are unbelievable. You probably think the bird in the tree that wakes you up in the morning is leftist.
Console yourself with all those lovely YouGov backed polls showing Labor was going to win the unloseable election, lol.
I'll deal in reality.
Bradesmaen
TheBrownDog
You mean like Newspoll, Galaxy and Essential... Newspoll who is part owned by NewsCorp...Console yourself with all those lovely YouGov backed polls showing Labor was going to win the unloseable election, lol.
I'll deal in reality.
What next, they're leftist?
Jesus Christ, keep up to date, man! There's a reason all the polls herded towards a left-wing Labor victory.
Newspoll probably wrong since Morrison became PM; polling has been less accurate at recent elections
While polls have been patchy for some years, analysis shows they have been particularly out of whack since Morrison became prime minister.
theconversation.com
The four active pollsters at this election were YouGov Galaxy, which conducts Newspoll, Ipsos, Essential and Morgan.
Bradesmaen
TheBrownDog
So... 4 polls got it wrong, but you're singling out one that is run by a Conservative party candidate as "leftist". Still not sure what your point is other than draw attention to how partisan you areJesus Christ, keep up to date, man! There's a reason all the polls herded towards a left-wing Labor victory.
Newspoll probably wrong since Morrison became PM; polling has been less accurate at recent elections
While polls have been patchy for some years, analysis shows they have been particularly out of whack since Morrison became prime minister.
The four active pollsters at this election were YouGov Galaxy, which conducts Newspoll, Ipsos, Essential and Morgan.
Incompetence is sacking two elected PMs on the basis of polling
Bradesmaen
TheBrownDog
Company gets employed to take internal polling.. therefore they are part of the party? That's a huge bow there..
Jesus Christ, keep up to date, man! There's a reason all the polls herded towards a left-wing Labor victory.
Newspoll probably wrong since Morrison became PM; polling has been less accurate at recent elections
While polls have been patchy for some years, analysis shows they have been particularly out of whack since Morrison became prime minister.
The four active pollsters at this election were YouGov Galaxy, which conducts Newspoll, Ipsos, Essential and Morgan.
Polls started being gradually corrupted ever since 2014 under the massing weight of elite media luvvies desperate to see the end of the Abbott government to enable the return of people smuggler boats and extreme carbon pricing. When Turnbull proved unable to turn back the hated Abbott policies, the Left turned on him too.
It wasn't necessarily the polls themselves that were/are at fault - it is the extreme prophetic reverence they held for the Left as long as they were showing a coalition defeat. I doubt whether #pjcrows would have maintained his obsessive polls commentary here for so long if the polls had been showing a coalition win.
Faces left with egg on May 18.
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iluvparis
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Why did the Vic election polls so massively underpoll the Labour vote then?
I've said a few times here it has felt as though we have had a left-wing government from 2014 onwards - such is the power of the weight put behind Labor since that time by the media in Australia. In some way, you could say we pre-dated the US and UK with a media-class obsession of hating the right of politics.
Bradesmaen
TheBrownDog
hahaha jesus, the coolaid is strong in this one.
