Polls Thread Mk III

[Hank Scorpion]

He's still a happy clappy slogan bogan coal loving neanderthal, but apparently the majority of Australians (most notably Queenslanders) fell for his schtick. I'm beginning to think that Australia, if not the world, would be a better place if someone sawed Queensland off from the rest of the country and fired the whole state into the sun. At best we need to introduce sterility drugs into the water supply up there, to stop these idiots from breeding.

Good luck with that. They don't even allow fluoridation north of Brisbane

 

[DaRick]

An extreme version of shy tory factor maybe, a large cohort of boomers too ashamed to admit to anyone just how craven their greed is, even to pollsters.

Queensland though is something else entirely.

I reckon it's a combination of herding plus sampling the same people several times, which created a misleading picture.

 

[NSWCROW]

NUKE THIS ****EN THREAD

 

[NSWCROW]

Hey buddy. Hope you got out and got some fresh air after during your 24hr ban. Hasn’t been a good weekend for you with the Crows losing, ALP losing the unlosable and then copping a ban. Only up from here friend!

Found this mythical post yet champ ?

 

[Fagan Pride]

Found this mythical post yet champ ?

I know you’ve been getting notifications of me liking all your posts writing off the LNP as far back as 2017. We’ll just keep that between me and you though comrade. Roughly 1095 days left of the LNP’s current term.

 

[NSWCROW]

I know you’ve been getting notifications of me liking all your posts writing off the LNP as far back as 2017. We’ll just keep that between me and you though comrade. Roughly 1095 days left of the LNP’s current term.

So nothing after to Apr 26 when you joined ?.........

 

[Craven Morehead]

I know you’ve been getting notifications of me liking all your posts writing off the LNP as far back as 2017. We’ll just keep that between me and you though comrade. Roughly 1095 days left of the LNP’s current term.

You can join me in the party because you've been liking all of mine as well..
My guess is you're *HLM, but too gutless to come out and admit it.

 

[Fagan Pride]

You can join me in the party because you've been liking all of mine as well..
My guess is you're *HLM, but too gutless to come out and admit it.

No mate. In the pursuit of liking Crows posts that have aged tremendously, I came across yours that were a couple of absolute pearlers. You berated a couple of people who for telling you essentially the polls were wrong, and LNP would win...5 months ago! Funny to read back it all now that the election is over.

 

[NSWCROW]

rent free

 

[TimmeT]

someones offended

 

[NSWCROW]

someones offended

who ?

 

[Fagan Pride]

Dear oh dear what a doozy of a post...

 

[tandino]

And she’s paid to give political analysis.

Twitter is not representative, I mean **** me give her a gold star.

 

[GoldenSky]

I find also that the Libs advertising is way better this time than Labor's. The Bill Australia Can't Afford ads are memorable and cutting. Labor's "Only for the Top End of Town and Themselves" feel dated, like they should have been used against Turnbull, as noone associates daggy ScoMo with the top end of town lol. Also, the voice over guy is really bad - makes the ads sound almost comical.

As I was saying a few weeks ago - Labor's ads were horrible.

https://www.smh.com.au/federal-elec...t-and-why-no-one-noticed-20190519-p51ox6.html

On Sunday, very senior Labor hard heads conceded their problems went well beyond the Sunshine State. They pointed to several big-picture issues with the campaign: they lost the advertising game, with the finger pointed squarely at party ad man Darren Moss.

 

[Lebbo73]

View attachment 677173View attachment 677172

Dear oh dear what a doozy of a post...

You’re melting and being triggered all at once. How does this happen after a miraculous come from behind victory?

 

[GoldenSky]

How poor is the swing to Labor in WA? lol. So much for the Shorten bus driving around with Mark McGowans face on it - anyone can tell you he is an incredibly uncharismatic and unpopular stumbling Premier, only still enjoying a honeymoon because the Libs have bumbling Americano Mike Nahan in the leader's chair.

Labor strategists just totally misjudged WA. Yesterday, Mark McGowan ran away from his involvement saying "he had simply been asked to help" and that "Labor had made itself too big of a target with its policies". Yet this foolish Premier was happy to support those policies during the campaign. Labor types would have winced at his embarrassing climbdown.

Lesson in WA politics: Mark McGowan is NOT popular. After being rejected in 2013, he was elected in 2017 as Barnett was increasingly running a 1 man show. He is up against an incompetent bumbling state Liberal leader now. Once the Libs install someone half decent, McGowan is finito.

 

[DaRick]

As I was saying a few weeks ago - Labor's ads were horrible.

https://www.smh.com.au/federal-elec...t-and-why-no-one-noticed-20190519-p51ox6.html

On Sunday, very senior Labor hard heads conceded their problems went well beyond the Sunshine State. They pointed to several big-picture issues with the campaign: they lost the advertising game, with the finger pointed squarely at party ad man Darren Moss.

They failed to utilise social media as effectively as the LNP did.

Daley had the same issue versus Berejiklian.

 

[GoldenSky]

They failed to utilise social media as effectively as the LNP did.

Daley had the same issue versus Berejiklian.

I think it's not about the use or quantity either but the quality - the Libs campaign was so tightly centred around the "Bill you can't afford" graphics/tagline that it was obviously a cut above Labor anything had.

 

[DaRick]

I think it's not about the use or quantity either but the quality - the Libs campaign was so tightly centred around the "Bill you can't afford" graphics/tagline that it was obviously a cut above Labor anything had.

Yep, but the LNP also made more effort to develop the 'Scomo' brand on FB.

I didn't see this from the ALP.

Likes/shares/comments on FB/Instagram are surprisingly predictive. Morrison/LNP had more this election cycle, as did Berejiklian.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Close the thread - fat lot of good this is.

Brexit/Trump comparisons aren't relevant because this is significantly worse. Brexit was within MoE, Trump still lost the popular vote and won based on regional variation. And neither dealt with compulsory voting.


There hasn't been a single public or internal poll showing anything resembling what happened last night. Not a single one over the past three years. Until the pollsters can come up with an explanation as to why they've gone completely off the deep end during this last term - they shouldn't be used in an punditry or discussion.

This guy gets it. Primary polls were way off, seemingly for 2-3 years, so seat projections were doomed from the start, let alone any further screw ups relating to clusters of seats (QLD).

People should lose their jobs over this but because everybody ****ed up including private pollsters they'll hide behind "no more landlines has made it hard you know...". People of the centre-right persuasion will also want to push a Morrison is a secret genius explanation.

 

[Pessimistic]

Also Brexit and trump had huge racist undertones and overtones in some cases

Morrison decided to cut that out completely, didn’t even dog whistle.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Also Brexit and trump had huge racist undertones and overtones in some cases

Morrison decided to cut that out completely, didn’t even dog whistle.

That's because they did it before the election (forgotten Victorians afraid to go out to restaurants already)

 

[Hoops]

My theory on why the polls got it so wrong.

• Voting in the election is mandatory, voting in polls is not.
• Therefore we had disproportionately the politically engaged voting in polls.
• Those that are not politically engaged are more susceptible to fear campaigns or maintaining the status quo.
• Liberals ran a fear campaign and had very little in the way of policy.

You just have to look at that map showing the swings for each booth. it seemed to swing towards Liberals in the less educated regions and towards Labor in the more educated regions. These reasons only had to be true for 2-3% of the people to get the result we have now.

 

[GoldenSky]

I not they are defending their claims for a change. Even though it’s just newscorp headlines. Oh dear

As I was saying before the election, the Labor ads were just horrible. Libs a million times better. We should have known that the polls were dodgy.

https://www.smh.com.au/federal-elec...ploited-labor-s-mistakes-20190521-p51pjg.html
The Liberals identified another structural issue with Labor’s pitch, the "top end of town" attack had been entirely tooled to wage war on Malcolm Turnbull and it just didn’t bite with the deeply suburban Scott Morrison.
The biggest compliment of the Liberal campaign was one those who crafted it would never have heard because it came from a foe in the field. An old Labor hand in Queensland rang me in response to an advertisement he was seeing everywhere.
"That line ‘The Bill Australia Can’t Afford’ is f--king awesome'," he confided lost in professional admiration.
The Liberal team knew it was biting because they would hear it repeated, unprompted, in focus groups.

 

[Pessimistic]

The joke really is on leaders who got booted ‘because polling’