Win Prizes Port, Pies & Saints 2024 Death Ride

[Snuffaluphagus]

There are some rule changes, as it's my baby and there has been some... disappointing opinions in here. The thread is for cheering on picks, you deathride or you have civil conversations in the non-freo thread.

**** Port, **** Pies, **** Saints!!!!

 

[pK75]

Port still need to win 2 of 4 games to make the 8, I can see them missing finals, likely in the last round against us which would be delicious.

Edit: bloos are useless campaigners but they play the pies next week, Carn the bloos!

 

[Spirit Level]

Pendlebury is due to play his 400th game against Carlton next week. That's going to be a huge game for both teams.

And I'll be there watching

 

[mightymouse75]

Young would still be in defense. I think we'd use him better to be honest. I think Walsh does what we'd have Cerra do.

And that would be an absolute waste. Young is our most important midfielder imho.

 

[Heave Ho Bro]

Young will end up the best mid in the group if he's not already. No real weaknesses. Hasn't even played a full year in there yet.

 

[kp junior]

100%

Cerra leaving was secretly genius. Amiss alone does that.

It’s not that secret that you can trade good players to balance the list.


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[Purple Suit]

I think the suns should beat them tomorrow, they have just about zilch key defenders left.
We can win all but one of our remaining games. Possibly even them all if we are good enough.

The worst thing about this result is the smug version of Kane Cornes we will be subjected to this week

Harris Andrews out will be a big blow to Brisbane. He is very durable so not sure they have played much without him recently.

Going 2nd at the end of the round would be well worth a few draft places. Even if we drop another game and finish 3rd / 4th, we will learn a lot by having Destiny in our own hands.

 

[arsesmart]

Last night was definitely a bummer for the DeathRide .

If we must consider other factors, when Port pulled ahead, I was hoping at least for a draw as a somewhat more all round placatory compromise.

Oh well, let's hope there's more downward spiralling for Port in coming rounds for the DeathRide to get up and about again.

 

[Wray27]

More like we play Brisbane at the Gabba

Brisbane would need to win 5/5 for that to happen. The have Collingwood at the G and given they have injuries this weekend I wouldn’t be surprised if GC beat them this weekend. Lose those and that puts them 5th on my LP.

 

[Kapow!!!]

Brisbane would need to win 5/5 for that to happen. The have Collingwood at the G and given they have injuries this weekend I wouldn’t be surprised if GC beat them this weekend. Lose those and that puts them 5th on my LP.

I'd be very surprised if they dropped the Collingwood game in their current form. Their biggest danger of losing would be today with Andrews out and even then I don't see it.

 

[Wray27]

I'd be very surprised if they dropped the Collingwood game in their current form. Their biggest danger of losing would be today with Andrews out and even then I don't see it.

It’s at the MCG though, which has me leaning to the Pies and if they win it doesn’t improve their ladder position so deathride still all good

 

[eastfreo75]

I do like the idea of trading late first round picks for future first round picks.

Teams tend to overrate their chances, and their ability to spot talent. The other factor is that nobody can predict injuries in the future.

Late picks 14-18 for F1 either breaks or you will the jackpot. Sure, not all drafts are even. That needs to be factored in but generally I think is a great way to improve draft position.

 

[purplerunsdeep2]

Re: ports first, does someone know the break even pick we need to 'win' that trade?


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[Taylor]

I do like the idea of trading late first round picks for future first round picks.

Teams tend to overrate their chances, and their ability to spot talent. The other factor is that nobody can predict injuries in the future.

Late picks 14-18 for F1 either breaks or you will the jackpot. Sure, not all drafts are even. That needs to be factored in but generally I think is a great way to improve draft position.

Essendon would be an option.

 

[Taylor]

Re: ports first, does someone know the break even pick we need to 'win' that trade?


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Given the pick we traded them last year was pick #32 by the time it went live the range of draft value goes like this:

#32 (584 points)

+

18th - Pick #21 (878) = 1462 (~ Pick #9)
17th
16th
15th
14th
13th
12th
11th
10th
9th
8th
7th
6th
5th - Pick #34 (542) = 1126 (~ Pick #15) <- This is prior to it moving back four or five places for FS/NGA
4th
3rd
2nd
1st - Pick #38 (465) = 1049 (~ Pick #16)

That 5th place second round pick in 2023 was pick #40 (429) (~ Pick #17/18)

We are already at break even.

 

[Taylor]

That's obviously excluding the reality of trading, because nobody is trading pick #9 for #32 and #21.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Brisbane would need to win 5/5 for that to happen. The have Collingwood at the G and given they have injuries this weekend I wouldn’t be surprised if GC beat them this weekend. Lose those and that puts them 5th on my LP.

And we'd need to win more than them with a harder run and lesser percentage. The most likely scenario would be us going to Brisbane at this stage.

 

[Docker82]

I do like the idea of trading late first round picks for future first round picks.

Teams tend to overrate their chances, and their ability to spot talent. The other factor is that nobody can predict injuries in the future.

Late picks 14-18 for F1 either breaks or you will the jackpot. Sure, not all drafts are even. That needs to be factored in but generally I think is a great way to improve draft position.

When said player is ready to genuinely form part of our squad depth (and hopefully later best 22) is just as important as the pick number imo.

It’s not often we’re going to get a top six pick from the premiership winners the year before. If said player is say player 25-28 on our list by say 2026 and ends up in the team on Grand Final day due to injuries the extra year of development achievable by drafting the player a year earlier might be the difference between a one point win or a one point loss.

The Port Adelaide pick is looking around where we would’ve thought they’d finish tbh. I never saw them as a premiership contender but them making those trades signalled they thought they were. Guess in that scenario they made it clear to everyone but themselves they overrated their list so if we are going to trade a pick into 2025 wait for a team to show clear signs they overrate themselves

 

[Joao]

Re: ports first, does someone know the break even pick we need to 'win' that trade?


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We can't lose on either F1 deal, it's just a matter of how far we win by.

 

[Wray27]

And we'd need to win more than them with a harder run and lesser percentage. The most likely scenario would be us going to Brisbane at this stage.

What games do you have us dropping?

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

What games do you have us dropping?

Too even, we'll drop one. I don't know which (GWS most likely though) but I am confident we'll drop one.

When we beat Sydney, a neutral on the ladder predictor thread said they had us going undefeated from here and I said then we are dropping at least one, maybe 2. Well we dropped the Hawks one we'll most likely drop one more (I expect Brisbane to drop one more as well)

 

[Wray27]

Too even, we'll drop one. I don't know which (GWS most likely though) but I am confident we'll drop one.

When we beat Sydney, a neutral on the ladder predictor thread said they had us going undefeated from here and I said then we are dropping at least one, maybe 2. Well we dropped the Hawks one we'll most likely drop one more (I expect Brisbane to drop one more as well)

Agreed we need to win 4/5 and win by a few big margins.
Btw apart from playing us in a few weeks how soft is the Cats draw.

 

[arsesmart]

Agreed we need to win 4/5 and win by a few big margins.
Btw apart from playing us in a few weeks how soft is the Cats draw.

Momentum can be a force here.

My big thing is we're at a stage where we're only heading upwards.

Our game style is what you'd want for this season also. Having those gears, being able to switch between fast and slow when needed is the premium plan for '24.

 

[Quazar2]

"beated"?

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

what, you don't recall that famous Michael Jackson song: "just beated, just beated....uhhh!"

You better run, you better do what you can....

 

[Docker82]

I think people need to remember what these traded were at the time.

Collingwood had just finished first and went after one of our contracted players. We never had access to their first rounder although I'm sure trading it to us would've been discussed. Also a team can't finish higher than 1st so the only way we could've lost is by the lack of development this year for said draft pick. A top five pick vs pick 20-odd probably cancels out the benefits of that extra year's development.

St Kilda somehow finished top eight with what is clearly one of the worst lists in the league. After all of the bottom three they're in discussions for the next worst. They also refused to trade us a decent pick from 2023.

Port Adelaide was two second rounders for a first rounder. The draft is a joke so last year's second rounder (tied to 2nd last) ended up beyond pick 30. It's quite likely this year's natural second rounder (tied to us) is beyond pick 30 before trade period even starts. No one's trading two 30+picks for even pick 15 so it was a trade we'd never would've lost. I'd do the same trade again with pretty much any team in the competition tbh.

Very different trades to simply trading a first rounder in 2024 for a first rounder in 2025. Let's see what develops but at this stage I don't think it's a good idea.

 

[s_wd6]

Too even, we'll drop one. I don't know which (GWS most likely though) but I am confident we'll drop one.

When we beat Sydney, a neutral on the ladder predictor thread said they had us going undefeated from here and I said then we are dropping at least one, maybe 2. Well we dropped the Hawks one we'll most likely drop one more (I expect Brisbane to drop one more as well)

Has us beating Sydney but losing to Hawks and GWS. None of the other games left worry me too much but I just can’t see us getting a win vs GWS away.

I do expect bris to drop at least one though.