Port v Freo

[maelcoluim]

Port thumped Carlton but in general their form has been down of late. This is a game that Freo with home ground advantage should be winning, but with Fyfe and Barlow out and with Port likely to throw everything out there to get 4th spot it feels far from certain which way it'll go. Expecting a fantastic contest with so much on the line, feels like a mini-grand final to stay in realistic contention for the premiership.

 

[samFFC]

If Port win by 1 point I think Freo will stay 4th. Can the maths boffins give us some help?

Nope. Freo has inferior percentage. Would be mathematically impossible to lose and end with better %. Must win game!

 

[Dusky]

Most exciting match of the season so far.

Should be a belter!

 

[Hinkley Effect]

Yep Port have everything going for them this game, they should win comfortably. They are back to May champions form, have timed their run to perfection, everyone on the list healthy, 8 day vs 6 day break. No team that is a serious finals contender should lose from their position.

If we timed our run to perfection we would have started the form turn around a couple weeks earlier and have top 4 sewn up already!

I won't have any nails left by 5pm Saturday

 

[It Just Is]

Is Impey a likely inclusion? Would think you'll need someone who can shut down small pacey forwards especially with Walters added to the mix. He completely blanketed Ballas as you say and would surely be a better match up than say Jasper Pittard.

Impey was held back from the SANFL on the weekend, so I'll say he's more than likely.

Aaron Young is the other possible inclusion. He's proven to be the best sub candidate at the club, a genuine game changer in that role, though he has had some foot troubles of late and it would be a big call two make to unforced changes.

 

[LongBomb]

I don't write on forums much but the long history of Geelong misses form the 60's to the 2000's should create empathy with freo "just sayin". By the way went to Geelong last years final and want to say thanks to the great reception b4 and aft got from cats fan.

Yeah fair call.
I had beers before and after the game with Freo supporters and they were good blokes

 

[Quokka]

Nope. Freo has inferior percentage. Would be mathematically impossible to lose and end with better %. Must win game!

I can't see how it can be done in this case but funny enough it is possible to lose a game and jump ahead of the winner, by losing less percentage than the other team, there just needs to be a big enough difference between proportions that still give a close percentage (so possible not practical).

Team A: For = 1761 Against = 1100 Percentage = 160.1%
Team B: For = 2000 Against = 1250 Percentage = 160.0%

Team A wins 101 - 100

Team A: For = 1862 Against = 1200 Percentage = 155.2%
Team B: For = 2100 Against = 1351 Percentage = 155.4%

 

[Wes Tiger]

Fremantle. Will play the swans in the grand final. Will knock them off in round 1 of the finals and host a prelim vs the cats or go to melbourne for the prelim vs the hawkers and do it that way. Regardless, Port isn't winning this game. Fortress Freo is a bridge too far for the Power.

 

[Mogumber]

We've won 21 of our last 22 at Subi.

 

[SgtSchulz]

I think Port will win because of personal bias. #KahnThePear

 

[philreich]

You can isolate a single year if you want. I don't really care. Neither Freo nor Port will beat Sydney. But Ross Lyon has a long history of showing he can challenge much better teams in finals.

Underestimate Ken Hinkley at your peril. And just because a team finishes on top after the minor round, it doesn't mean much in the qualifying final. As a Port fan, the pain of 2002 and 2003 is still there: if we manage to get over Fremantle this week, the prospect of playing the Swans at ANZ will hold no fears, and it'd be a sensational game of footy.

 

[clogged]

I can't see how it can be done in this case but funny enough it is possible to lose a game and jump ahead of the winner, by losing less percentage than the other team, there just needs to be a big enough difference between proportions that still give a close percentage (so possible not practical).

Team A: For = 1761 Against = 1100 Percentage = 160.1%
Team B: For = 2000 Against = 1250 Percentage = 160.0%

Team A wins 101 - 100

Team A: For = 1862 Against = 1200 Percentage = 155.2%
Team B: For = 2100 Against = 1351 Percentage = 155.4%

Problem is the losing team has to have the higher denominator - the poorer against - for this to work. Freo have a much better defence that Port so any loss for Freo will keep the percentage gap.

 

[QPower]

I am not sure Subi is as much a fortress as it has been - The Kangas stormed it early this year and Carlton gave the game away after having Freo done cold.

A tough place to win, but nothing like the Gabba back in the day or Kardinia Park.

 

[Mogumber]

I am not sure Subi is as much a fortress as it has been - The Kangas stormed it early this year and Carlton gave the game away after having Freo done cold.

A tough place to win, but nothing like the Gabba back in the day or Kardinia Park.

21 wins from the last 22 suggests otherwise.

 

[Darcy 2 Fyfe]

I am not sure Subi is as much a fortress as it has been - The Kangas stormed it early this year and Carlton gave the game away after having Freo done cold.

A tough place to win, but nothing like the Gabba back in the day or Kardinia Park.

Hawks and Cats beg to differ.

 

[QPower]

Hawks and Cats beg to differ.

Hawks are kicking themselves after 11 shots on goal to Freo's 3 in in first qtr and should have had the game won by then.

Cats just aren't that good.

 

[clogged]

I am not sure Subi is as much a fortress as it has been - The Kangas stormed it early this year and Carlton gave the game away after having Freo done cold.

A tough place to win, but nothing like the Gabba back in the day or Kardinia Park.

Funny you should say. Only one team in history has won a final there.

 

[samFFC]

I can't see how it can be done in this case but funny enough it is possible to lose a game and jump ahead of the winner, by losing less percentage than the other team, there just needs to be a big enough difference between proportions that still give a close percentage (so possible not practical).

Team A: For = 1761 Against = 1100 Percentage = 160.1%
Team B: For = 2000 Against = 1250 Percentage = 160.0%

Team A wins 101 - 100

Team A: For = 1862 Against = 1200 Percentage = 155.2%
Team B: For = 2100 Against = 1351 Percentage = 155.4%

Mathematically impossible for this match, then

Nice maths!

 

[Mogumber]

Hawks are kicking themselves after 11 shots on goal to Freo's 3 in in first qtr and should have had the game won by then.

Cats just aren't that good.

I'll think Saturday will tell a lot about Port as well.

 

[QPower]

21 wins from the last 22 suggests otherwise.

The 2014 form has been patchy with good ordinary sides matching Freo at home. Who cares about 2013??

 

[Mogumber]

The 2014 form has been patchy with good ordinary sides matching Freo at home. Who cares about 2013??

We've lost one game at home this year. That's 2014!

 

[Spoken4]

The 2014 form has been patchy with good ordinary sides matching Freo at home. Who cares about 2013??

Rubbish. Good sides with well or ugly. No team demolishes every side they face.

Fact is we have only lost two games at home in two years; one a 4 point loss to Essendon at the beginning of 2013 and the other a 13 point loss to North in a wet game without Ballas or Walters. Should not have lost that game but then again, North has beaten Sydney at home and Hawthorn as well.

 

[ScooterBrother]

Freo should start heavy favourites and rightly so. Very experienced side even with a couple out. Expertly drilled. At home. Really should win.

Port fans ITT need to cool their jets.

 

[Admiral Byng]

I've done a little Excel spreadsheet and played with the numbers. There is no way Fremantle can overtake Port on percentage even with a one point loss. From 200-199 to 2-1 scoreline, it all works out that Port's percentage is higher.

Must win game for Freo. If we bring our A game and are switched on from the start we should win it. Funny how everyone suddenly thinks Port are a team of superheros after beating a Carlton side that didn't show up last Friday night. I'm not sure that's a true indicator of their form.

 

[getgaff]

Promises to be a cracking game of footy. Didn't see enough of the Dockers and Lions to comment on the Dockers form line but I think the 6 day break plus travel home from Brisbane could work against them where as Port will come off an 8 day break and a "easy" win over Carlton.

Fyfe, Barlow and McPharlin are outs that will show more against a team like Port rather than a team like Brisbane. Port by under 18 points which could set up a Western Derby final