Port v Freo

[QPower]

Coming off the 6 day break there's no excuses IMO if Port don't overrun us again this time around, we just need to have a substantial enough lead when the surge begins and also hopefully have Hill in the second half

Freo were definitely saving legs in the last half of the Brisbane game, I wonder if it will be of much help.

I recall at 3 qtr time of he first Port Freo match, the Port huddle was looking over at the Freo's players cramping and getting rub downs. They believe they are fitter than Freo, but definitely agree that anything than 15 points behind at 3 qtr time willl be too much for Port.

Brisbane is bloody hot in the August sun, so it will be interesting to see how Freo go.

 

[Kenny_01]

Port are favourites. Extra 2 day break and full strength. It will be close though.

 

[im_a_lazy_sod]

Now that is dedication... or boredom. One of the two.

If you are a whiz with excel it could only take a minute or two

The more I think about it, the more I worry about the 6v8 day break. All our losses this season have been 6 day breaks, with the north loss the only 6 day break we have had coming back home, rather than travelling off one.

On that note, I think the AFL should float the last 3 rounds to avoid either a) consequitive 6 day breaks (hawks) or b) 6v8 day breaks (as with us v Port). Which makes me wonder why our game v hawthorn wasn't played on a Saturday and v Brisbane on a Saturday as well. Meanwhile teams like GWS and Melbourne get Saturday games in preparation for big round23s

 

[yoong]

I recall at 3 qtr time of he first Port Freo match, the Port huddle was looking over at the Freo's players cramping and getting rub downs. They believe they are fitter than Freo, but definitely agree that anything than 15 points behind at 3 qtr time willl be too much for Port.

Brisbane is bloody hot in the August sun, so it will be interesting to see how Freo go.

We do have a better forward line coming into this match compared to the last time, so that would help.

Fitness will definitely be a factor in the game

 

[LongBomb]

Cats usually only play shite teams down there. It showed that when a good team went there they lost. Just like Sydney in 2011.

What about when Sydney went down there in 2012 and lost by 6 goals?

 

[Spoken4]

I recall at 3 qtr time of he first Port Freo match, the Port huddle was looking over at the Freo's players cramping and getting rub downs. They believe they are fitter than Freo, but definitely agree that anything than 15 points behind at 3 qtr time willl be too much for Port.

Was 20 degrees in Brisbane. That's a cool day in Perth.

Freo is the fittest they've been all year. Manic and sustained pressure against Hawthorn for the whole game showed that. I reckon they are at least as fit if not fitter than Port.

Brisbane is bloody hot in the August sun, so it will be interesting to see how Freo go.

 

[LongBomb]

Difference is that this year Geelong rarely wins well and often wins ugly.

They've been so bad yet freo are still below them on the ladder.

 

[Dan26]

The funny thing about this week's match is that's it's almost a final. Literally.

Imagine if the finals worked like this:

5 WEEK FINALS SERIES


WEEK ONE (1,2,3,6,7,8 week off)

Wildcard final: 4 v 5


WEEK TWO

1st Qual. Final: 1 v winner of wildcard
2nd Qual. Final: 2 v 3
1st Elim. Final: Loser of wildcard v 8
2nd Elim. Final 6 v 7


WEEK THREE

1st Semi Final: Loser 1st Q/Final vs winner 1st Elim Final
2nd Semi Final: Loser 2nd Q/Final vs winner 2nd Elim Final


WEEK FOUR

1st Prelim Final:
2nd Prelim Final:


WEEK FIVE
Grand Final

1st Semi Final: Loser 1st Q/Final vs winner 1st Elim Final
2nd Semi Final: Loser 2nd Q/Final vs winner 2nd Elim Final

 

[Quokka]

Mathematically impossible for this match, then

Nice maths!

Yeah absolutely **** all good to Freo on Saturday, we're outside the sweet spot. I just got curious when one of the commentators mentioned that you could win a game and still lose percentage and it turns out that you can definitely gain enough percentage to get ahead of the opponent who just beat you and already had a higher percentage before the game or similarly lose less % than them and get ahead that way.


Major delete-edit as I was way off before, needed a little more trial and a lot less error

But basically if you're behind in percentage and you're both somewhere under 100% you need to have the lower for/against scores and you can gain more than the winning team and over take them. Vice versa with percentages above 100% you need to have the higher for/against scores.

So if two opponents have a high enough percentage, one is 4 points clear but just behind on percentage then, like in the example in my other post:

Team A: For = 1761 Against = 1100 Percentage = 160.1%.
Team B: For = 2000 Against = 1250 Percentage = 160.0%.
Team A wins 101 - 100
Team A: For = 1862 Against = 1200 Percentage = 155.2%
Team B: For = 2100 Against = 1351 Percentage = 155.4%

The team behind on percentage can lose the game and still end up losing less percentage and so finish ahead overall. BUT this team must have the higher For/Against values even though their percentage starts out slightly less.

Flip it over and it works the same. At a low enough percentage, if you have much lower For:Against values, are ahead one win and just behind on percentage then you can lose a game but this time you gain more percentage and so stay ahead of the other team even though the two teams are now even on points and you just lost a game that you started already behind on percentage. So reverse the for and against for Team A and B and have Team B win 101-100, this time Team A starts with the lower percentage but ends up about 0.1% ahead despite losing the game. The starting percentages were about 62%

The other deciding factor is the ratio between the two teams for and against scores, switch the Port and Freo scores, adjust it so Freo's percentage is just lower and it took a game score of around 1001 - 1000 to go from 1% behind to 0.13% in front but widen the gap and it gets a little more practical ie Losing team before the game: 2083/1573, 132.4%, winning team: 1330/1000, 133%, and a game ending on 101-100 gives the losing team the higher percentage.


I'd be curious to know what the rules and ratios are for how it all relates... but yeah I really don't, although I suppose it's just how the teams percentages relate to the game percentage which I always kept at ~100% (101-100 etc) to give the losing team the best chance of catching the winner's percentage.


OK sorry for the ramble, I'm gonna step away from the keyboard now, maybe pick up a high school maths book

 

[*PAF]

...

Brisbane is bloody hot in the August sun, so it will be interesting to see how Freo go.

 

[wild side]

No hotter than Perth. 25 degrees today mate.

 

[Simmofreo]

The funny thing about this week's match is that's it's almost a final. Literally.

Imagine if the finals worked like this:

5 WEEK FINALS SERIES


WEEK ONE (1,2,3,6,7,8 week off)

Wildcard final: 4 v 5


WEEK TWO

1st Qual. Final: 1 v winner of wildcard
2nd Qual. Final: 2 v 3
1st Elim. Final: Loser of wildcard v 8
2nd Elim. Final 6 v 7


WEEK THREE

1st Semi Final: Loser 1st Q/Final vs winner 1st Elim Final
2nd Semi Final: Loser 2nd Q/Final vs winner 2nd Elim Final


WEEK FOUR

1st Prelim Final:
2nd Prelim Final:


WEEK FIVE
Grand Final

1st Semi Final: Loser 1st Q/Final vs winner 1st Elim Final
2nd Semi Final: Loser 2nd Q/Final vs winner 2nd Elim Final

WTF

 

[*PAF]

WTF

Makes sense.
This week is 4 V 5.
Winner gets to play the team that finishes top and the loser plays the 8th team.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Yeah absolutely **** all good to Freo on Saturday, we're outside the sweet spot. I just got curious when one of the commentators mentioned that you could win a game and still lose percentage and it turns out that there are kind of two scenarios where you could gain enough percentage to get ahead of the opponent who just beat you and already had a higher percentage before the game.

It's all about the percentage and which team has higher values for their For and Against. If two opponents have a high enough percentage, one is 4 points clear but just behind on percentage then, like in the example in my other post, the team behind on percentage can lose the game and still end up losing less percentage and so end up ahead overall. BUT this team must have the higher For/Against values even though their percentage starts out slightly less.

4 points ahead means that losing the game brings the two teams even on points and the closer the final score the closer the percentage has to be to start with.

Flip it over and it works the same. At a low enough percentage, if you have much lower For:Against values, are ahead one win and just behind on percentage then you can lose a game but this time you gain more percentage and so stay ahead of the other team even though the two teams are now even on points and you just lost a game that you started already behind on percentage. So reverse the for and against for Team A and B and have Team B win 101-100, this time Team A starts with the lower percentage but ends up about 0.1% ahead despite losing the game. The starting percentages were about 62%

So what are the sweet spots? I'm sure there's a formula or something to determine exactly the percentage needed to make this possible but I don't know it. Still a quick trial and error and (depending on rounding) it's pretty close to the teams needing: Less than 75% or greater than 125%, anything under 70% and over130% and it's definitely possible to catch percentage with a loss. A fraction of a percent only takes a point or two loss (and the right team having higher for/against scores) and so I wouldn't be surprised if it has happened a time or two, if you play around with stupid extremes like a close percentage but one team's For and Against being 10 or 1000 times larger you can smash ahead pretty much any percentage you want, all while losing.

Freo and Port are ~132% with Port about 0.5% ahead but the only reason Freo can't beat it with a loss is that Port have the higher For & Against values, Freo needed to have scored more for and against, of course it'd probably only have given us a few points head-start so it's not likely to be a strategy that'll catch on. Like clogged said it's all about a higher denominator (Against) but then you need to have scored more to keep the percentages close.





TL : DR DISCLAIMER

Yes I know that this is now 3-pages-ago Off Topic, overly long, dribbling and sits in amongst the most pointlessly trivial posts that will ever fade to back pages of Big Footy but if anyone reads this and then at some point later finds themselves in a Life or Death AFL Trivia Face-Off... On that day they can just come back and thank me .

Yeah absolutely **** all good to Freo on Saturday, we're outside the sweet spot. I just got curious when one of the commentators mentioned that you could win a game and still lose percentage and it turns out that there are kind of two scenarios where you could gain enough percentage to get ahead of the opponent who just beat you and already had a higher percentage before the game.

It's all about the percentage and which team has higher values for their For and Against. If two opponents have a high enough percentage, one is 4 points clear but just behind on percentage then, like in the example in my other post, the team behind on percentage can lose the game and still end up losing less percentage and so end up ahead overall. BUT this team must have the higher For/Against values even though their percentage starts out slightly less.

4 points ahead means that losing the game brings the two teams even on points and the closer the final score the closer the percentage has to be to start with.

Flip it over and it works the same. At a low enough percentage, if you have much lower For:Against values, are ahead one win and just behind on percentage then you can lose a game but this time you gain more percentage and so stay ahead of the other team even though the two teams are now even on points and you just lost a game that you started already behind on percentage. So reverse the for and against for Team A and B and have Team B win 101-100, this time Team A starts with the lower percentage but ends up about 0.1% ahead despite losing the game. The starting percentages were about 62%

So what are the sweet spots? I'm sure there's a formula or something to determine exactly the percentage needed to make this possible but I don't know it. Still a quick trial and error and (depending on rounding) it's pretty close to the teams needing: Less than 75% or greater than 125%, anything under 70% and over 130% and it's definitely possible to catch percentage with a loss. A fraction of a percent only takes a point or two loss (and the right team having higher for/against scores) and so I wouldn't be surprised if it has happened a time or two, if you play around with stupid extremes like a close percentage but one team's For and Against being 10 or 1000 times larger you can smash ahead pretty much any percentage you want, all while losing.

Freo and Port are ~132% with Port about 0.5% ahead but the only reason Freo can't beat it with a loss is that Port have the higher For & Against values, Freo needed to have scored more for and against, of course it'd probably only have given us a few points head-start so it's not likely to be a strategy that'll catch on. Like clogged said it's all about a higher denominator (Against) but then you need to have scored more to keep the percentages close.





TL : DR DISCLAIMER

Yes I know that this is now 3-pages-ago Off Topic, overly long, dribbling and sits in amongst the most pointlessly trivial posts that will ever fade to back pages of Big Footy but if anyone reads this and then at some point later finds themselves in a Life or Death AFL Trivia Face-Off... On that day they can just come back and thank me .

It can happen - i might have the wrong game - but when Hawkins kicked that goal after the siren to beat Hawthorn a few seasons ago - i didnt know the score - so i thought id have a sneaky look at Cats percentage on the ladder - and it went down - so i thought we lost - but we won - so it can happen - all in the maths i know

 

[Bulldocker]

If the game was a draw, both team's percentage would go down. Port's would suffer a tiny fraction more than ours though. Of course, we would be happy with a draw but I just used that possibility to demonstrate the vagaries of percentage!
FWIW, it would be insane for the other top three to count us or Port out. Whoever does end in 5th will surely be the best 5th placed finisher for a very long time.

 

[winnyblues]

freo to dismantle port 20+ points

 

[questionable]

If the game was a draw, both team's percentage would go down. Port's would suffer a tiny fraction more than ours though. Of course, we would be happy with a draw but I just used that possibility to demonstrate the vagaries of percentage!
FWIW, it would be insane for the other top three to count us or Port out. Whoever does end in 5th will surely be the best 5th placed finisher for a very long time.

actually freo's would suffer slightly more. i know why you'd assume that, but i don't think you've accounted for freo's much lower for/against values, meaning any result has a proportionally greater effect than the same result does to a team with similar percentage but higher for/against values.

 

[QPower]

We do have a better forward line coming into this match compared to the last time, so that would help.

Fitness will definitely be a factor in the game

Freo have Walters back and Fyfe ad Barlow out.

Port have Lobbe and Jonas back

Preseason is the only time to build a true fitness base. In season is about maintaining the base you built n summer. Freo are a deserved favourite for This is game, but if Port win it will be based, as Hartlett noted, on our fitness edge.

 

[Mogumber]

We are as fit as Port. There will be no excuses.

 

[Spoken4]

Indisputable, there are 3 x key outs with Fyfe, Barlow and McPharlin (with Luke's career looking cooked).

Ross said on 6pr that Barlow is unlikely to play and your point about McPharlin I'll just remind you that He is the AA and Silvagni is the one that has spent the time in the magoo's, Luke will be missed.

Pav, Mzungu and Spurr as at the end of the match when I wrote the post were all legitimate concerns, Ross did say last night that Pav has to pass the Doc's test this week (can't remember a mention about Spurr, but with a match day injury he will be in the same boat).

And yet Barlow training today and both Sumich and Ballas indicated that he could play.

Silvagni has been outstanding in every game he has played for Freo this year. I cannot think of a game that McPharlin has been outstanding in this year (that is not to diminish that MCPharlin is one of the great full backs of the modern era).

Pav was running today without his quad strapped. At training for the past few weeks he has had his quad strapped. Draw your own conclusions.

 

[Tas]

I don't think Freo are going to give the time and space to Port to dispose of the ball, I think they have played their worst footy under pressure (who hasn't) but they are still a very young side so not sure they can handle it well. They have to somehow go on the front foot and put Freo on the back foot or else I think Freo will win comfortably.

 

[QPower]

And yet Barlow training today and both Sumich and Ballas indicated that he could play.

Silvagni has been outstanding in every game he has played for Freo this year. I cannot think of a game that McPharlin has been outstanding in this year (that is not to diminish that MCPharlin is one of the great full backs of the modern era).

Pav was running today without his quad strapped. At training for the past few weeks he has had his quad strapped. Draw your own conclusions.

Any half competent senior coach (and Hinkley is a lot better than that) would have plans fro Freo with and without the players under a cloud including Barlow and Pav.

Not sure the purpose of Fremantle flatly stating Barlow is unavailable if he might play.

http://www.fremantlefc.com.au/news/2014-08-26/in-the-mix-to-face-port

 

[Daveismad]

Yeah absolutely **** all good to Freo on Saturday, we're outside the sweet spot. I just got curious when one of the commentators mentioned that you could win a game and still lose percentage and it turns out that you can definitely gain enough percentage to get ahead of the opponent who just beat you and already had a higher percentage before the game or similarly lose less % than them and get ahead that way.


Major delete-edit as I was way off before, needed a little more trial and a lot less error

But basically if you're behind in percentage and you're both somewhere under 100% you need to have the lower for/against scores and you can gain more than the winning team and over take them. Vice versa with percentages above 100% you need to have the higher for/against scores.

So if two opponents have a high enough percentage, one is 4 points clear but just behind on percentage then, like in the example in my other post:


The team behind on percentage can lose the game and still end up losing less percentage and so finish ahead overall. BUT this team must have the higher For/Against values even though their percentage starts out slightly less.

Flip it over and it works the same. At a low enough percentage, if you have much lower For:Against values, are ahead one win and just behind on percentage then you can lose a game but this time you gain more percentage and so stay ahead of the other team even though the two teams are now even on points and you just lost a game that you started already behind on percentage. So reverse the for and against for Team A and B and have Team B win 101-100, this time Team A starts with the lower percentage but ends up about 0.1% ahead despite losing the game. The starting percentages were about 62%

The other deciding factor is the ratio between the two teams for and against scores, switch the Port and Freo scores, adjust it so Freo's percentage is just lower and it took a game score of around 1001 - 1000 to go from 1% behind to 0.13% in front but widen the gap and it gets a little more practical ie Losing team before the game: 2083/1573, 132.4%, winning team: 1330/1000, 133%, and a game ending on 101-100 gives the losing team the higher percentage.


I'd be curious to know what the rules and ratios are for how it all relates... but yeah I really don't, although I suppose it's just how the teams percentages relate to the game percentage which I always kept at ~100% (101-100 etc) to give the losing team the best chance of catching the winner's percentage.


OK sorry for the ramble, I'm gonna step away from the keyboard now, maybe pick up a high school maths book

My head hurts trying to understand all that

The current system is fine by me

Ok to the game

Going to make a bold statement.

I think freo will belt port on subi.......

Just think that port won't handle 43,000 screaming purple fanatics

 

[clogged]

Brisbane is bloody hot in the August sun, so it will be interesting to see how Freo go.

Good thing it was cloudy on Sunday.

 

[port_adelaide_1870]

My head hurts trying to understand all that

The current system is fine by me

Ok to the game

Going to make a bold statement.

I think freo will belt port on subi.......

Just think that port won't handle 43,000 screaming purple fanatics

We bet west coast in front of 35-40k screaming (and a lot of booing) yellow and blue fanatics