Prediction Possible pick swaps

[coniglio_number1]

I’d prefer to pass on a super early bid for green and take young at 6. Green is too similar to most of our midfielders and young provides a point of difference

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I’d prefer to pass on a super early bid for green and take young at 6. Green is too similar to most of our midfielders and young provides a point of difference

Surely if you pass it would be for Jackson as you really don’t have a ruck long term

 

[Thetrader15]

Possible Trade for Adelaide

Melbourne Receive: 15 and 20
Gold Coast Receive: 8

Adelaide Receive: 8 and Future Compo(11)
Gold Coast Receive: 4 and 45

Brisbane’s Receive: 49 and Future compo(11)
Adelaide Receive: 16 and 34

Leaves Adelaide with
8
16
23
28
34
37

Melbourne traded a first and second next year for pick 8. I can't see them doing that deal

 

[00Stinger]

Possible Trade for Adelaide

Melbourne Receive: 15 and 20
Gold Coast Receive: 8

Adelaide Receive: 8 and Future Compo(11)
Gold Coast Receive: 4 and 45

Brisbane’s Receive: 49 and Future compo(11)
Adelaide Receive: 16 and 34

Leaves Adelaide with
8
16
23
28
34
37

Melbourne traded a 2019 2nd rounder, 2019 third rounder & 2020 1 st rounder for pick 8

I can't see them the on trading it for a late 1st rounder and a 2nd rounder

 

[THE_GUN]

Melbourne traded a 2019 2nd rounder, 2019 third rounder & 2020 1 st rounder for pick 8

I can't see them the on trading it for a late 1st rounder and a 2nd rounder

True
Melbourne looks like they are going all in for 2020 , Langdon , Tomlinson and possibly Bennell + 2 x top 10 players coming into a team that has a fair few top end talent

 

[Cobwebs]

True
Melbourne looks like they are going all in for 2020 , Langdon , Tomlinson and possibly Bennell + 2 x top 10 players coming into a team that has a fair few top end talent

Hoping we throw Murray into that mix, would be a good off season if it happened. 8 could get split, depends on what they think of Picket I would suggest.

 

[coniglio_number1]

Surely if you pass it would be for Jackson as you really don’t have a ruck long term

We drafted Briggs recently and also have Flynn. Both are young rucks and I can’t see the club blowing a top pick on another young ruck that won’t get early playing time and just leave for opportunity at a bargain. We don’t have the luxury for long term development of interstate kids

 

[Obeanie1]

Well the Eagles have delisted Ah chew and Hamish Brashaw and have stated they will redraft them if available which means the rookie draft.

Five players moved. Kelly in with Watson upgrades leaves 3 main list spots.

Expect that Geelong 2020 3rd to be traded to Brisbane for one of their 3rds they won't use.

Then either we use both to pick players or to trade down into the 30's on draft night.

 

[Peel67skin]

Well the Eagles have delisted Ah chew and Hamish Brashaw and have stated they will redraft them if available which means the rookie draft.

Five players moved. Kelly in with Watson upgrades leaves 3 main list spots.

Expect that Geelong 2020 3rd to be traded to Brisbane for one of their 3rds they won't use.

Then either we use both to pick players or to trade down into the 30's on draft night.

Ah chew?

 

[manny100]

If GWS get an early bid they will use the pick 6 to trade back into a couple of teens picks if they can. Then use one on Green and one in the draft. Alternatively they will try to trade up to take the Ds or Crows pick. GWS may as well throw next years draft away now and get the cream this year. Its odds on that they will lose a player or 2 and get some picks next year anyway. If a mid moves on because they want more money or games they have Green they can bring in and/or another early pick from this draft.
GWS are in a no lose situation and if they can get the Ds pick they will likely be not far behind GC when it all washes out.

 

[anotherletdown]

Yes but sydney will bid on green which wipes out 6. I cant see them getting jackson unless they get 3 or 4.

Personally think they’re after Green and Jackson. If both are available at 5 I think they’ll prioritize Jackson and pass on Green. if bid comes at 3 or 4 then they’re in a really tight situation, think they’ll match just to guarantee one of their targets.

 

[Obeanie1]

Ah chew?

Bless me.

Ha. Bloody spell check.

 

[perplexed]

Just on the options available to GWS if it still has its heart set on trading up pick 6 to get a selection ahead of Green, I came across this article (while looking for something different). It's old (2015), so may well be out of date, but suggests that the maximum deficit a club can go into is adjusted by any future pick trades they have done. Previously I thought I'd read that the maximum deficit was set at 1723 points (being the sum of the points value of the picks the premier will earn).

AFL closes draft bidding system loophole

AFL acts on possible loophole in draft bidding system

www.afl.com.au

So, hypothetically, if GSW were to trade their pick 6 up to pick 3 (swapping with Melbourne) in return for next year's first round pick, the maximum deficit they could go into is 1723 - 985 = 738 points - if the contents of the above article still apply. For this purpose I'm assuming that the maximum deficit won't be adjusted by the AFL for the effects of GC's extra 2020 pick in the middle of the first round. It won't make that much difference.

If the above goes ahead, GWS select whoever they want with pick 3 and then a bid comes for Green with pick 4, it will cost them 1,627 points to match. They have picks 40, 59 and 60 in this year's draft, which together provide 733 points. They will be left with a deficit of 1627 - 733 points = 894. This is bigger than the maximum deficit they are allowed, per the above paragraph.

Edit: I see they've traded in a third round pick next year and traded out a fourth. So that increases their maximum deficit by 201 points (being the difference in points value between picks 54 and 72). So that just squeezes them over the line of being able to match a bid at 4. But the margin is very small, and it probably rules out them being able to match bids on Delahunty or any one else, later in the draft. Of course, they could well trade in some other late picks to help bolster their points value, though not from Melbourne, as Melbourne don't currently have any late picks to trade. (Though I guess a late future pick might do the trick.)

I'm not suggesting what might happen. Just trying to better understand how the points deficit system works. Does anyone know if the above is (approximately) correct, or did the AFL change the system since that article was published in 2015?

This is correct, except because of the GC mid round compo pick the maximum deficit teams can go into for next year is slightly smaller.
GWS arent able to use their future first to trade up to 3 and cover a pick for Green at 4. They would only be able to trade up to 4 and cover a pick at five if Adelaide gave them enough points back with late picks.

 

[sydney_gws]

I would like to See gws swap 6,60 for 14,17 with Geelong. Then trade 17,59 for 26, 27 with north. Effectively swap 6,59,60 for 14, 26, 27.

 

[Pykie]

The GC 2020 Pick 11 is a priority pick not a compensation pick.

I haven't read specifically on it, but I'd be surprised if it was tradeable this draft.

Despite the AFL announcing those concessions I can't see how a priority pick technically comes into existance before the end of the season it is meant to provide priority access for.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Personally think they’re after Green and Jackson. If both are available at 5 I think they’ll prioritize Jackson and pass on Green. if bid comes at 3 or 4 then they’re in a really tight situation, think they’ll match just to guarantee one of their targets.

Cant see them passing on Green.

 

[anotherletdown]

I’d prefer to pass on a super early bid for green and take young at 6. Green is too similar to most of our midfielders and young provides a point of difference

I’m expecting that. Young or Jackson suit you far better than Green.

 

[THE_GUN]

There is no point in GWS trading pick #6 for 2 later picks like #14+#17

If a bid comes in at say pick #4 which is 2034 points minus the 20% discount , Green still will cost the giants 1600 points
#14 = 1161 points
#17 =1025 points

The bid will wipe out both picks and they will get a later selection back

Better of trading for late picks for points + 2020 1st rounder then trade that back to get into a better position

 

[Clems Knee]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...E_Vl9SP5YE3hFbMA6zv1JWoVcH4PpT--JVnjsTVpuQjLk

“A club, now, will not be allowed to strike two separate deals with the same rival team in an attempt to use less valuable selections to match a bid on an academy or father-son prospect on draft night.”

So the trades to hide picks will not be as easy to make as last year.

I have previously suggested two GWS-Freo Trades to get more currency for the draft picks just before the bid. That now looks impossible.
Assuming GWS don’t get to trade their pick 6 to before the Green bid, they could still hide their pick. It would just mean a few picks would need to be involved and each trade would need to be beneficial to participating clubs.
Eg if bid comes at 5, GWS gives 6 and 40, Freo gives 22, 58 and 2020 first and second round pick.

After the trade, GWS matches bid on Green (1878 - discount = 1502) with picks 22, 58,59,60 and 183 point deficit
GWS then trades Freo’s 2020 1st Round pick or two second round picks (GWS and Freo’s) for a pick in the teens. Perhaps Geelong or Port Adelaide.
GWS get to turn Green and picks after 40 into Green and 2020 first rounder or two second rounders, or whatever you can trade them back into.

 

[Jebus18]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...E_Vl9SP5YE3hFbMA6zv1JWoVcH4PpT--JVnjsTVpuQjLk

“A club, now, will not be allowed to strike two separate deals with the same rival team in an attempt to use less valuable selections to match a bid on an academy or father-son prospect on draft night.”

So the trades to hide picks will not be as easy to make as last year.

I have previously suggested two GWS-Freo Trades to get more currency for the draft picks just before the bid. That now looks impossible.
Assuming GWS don’t get to trade their pick 6 to before the Green bid, they could still hide their pick. It would just mean a few picks would need to be involved and each trade would need to be beneficial to participating clubs.
Eg if bid comes at 5, GWS gives 6 and 40, Freo gives 22, 58 and 2020 first and second round pick.

After the trade, GWS matches bid on Green (1878 - discount = 1502) with picks 22, 58,59,60 and 183 point deficit
GWS then trades Freo’s 2020 1st Round pick or two second round picks (GWS and Freo’s) for a pick in the teens. Perhaps Geelong or Port Adelaide.
GWS get to turn Green and picks after 40 into Green and 2020 first rounder or two second rounders, or whatever you can trade them back into.

I assume freo will be doin a trade after aswell around a Henry bid that favours us because that trade freo are getting reamed

 

[Clems Knee]

I assume freo will be doin a trade after aswell around a Henry bid that favours us because that trade freo are getting reamed

I don’t think Freo get reamed. 4 first round picks this year would be pretty special. If we trade badly we might get only 2.

They could get pick 6,7 and 10 and still have a second round pick next year, as well as Henry. You have to pay more for futures than current year.
If a bid on Henry comes before 10, Freo could trade out 10 for another 2020 pick. Eg with Hawthorn.
If a bid comes after 10 then the 22 would have been gone anyway, and pick 40 would give a lot of the points towards paying for him.

Of course I’m hoping GWS wants to trade with Freo as it would be beneficial to both, but other teams could also offer up their future picks in a trade for pick 6, so that the pick isn’t used up on Green.

I don’t think it’s a good idea for GWS to trade with Melbourne or Adelaide . Or for Freo to trade with Melbourne or Carlton. The teams with picks just before their pick are bound to use extortion to force a trade massively in their favour.

 

[GatesOfHell]

What about the Dees pick 8 to Port for their picks 12&18?

Originally it was the Saints who traded pick 6 to GWS for 12&18, so the pick swap I’m suggesting is around the mark.

It might be in Melbourne’s interest to increase the spread of talent to three players in the top 20, allowing Port to really target an elite top 8 talent.

I would be open to this swap by my club. Go to the draft with 3, 12 & 18.

 

[Jebus18]

I don’t think Freo get reamed. 4 first round picks this year would be pretty special. If we trade badly we might get only 2.

They could get pick 6,7 and 10 and still have a second round pick next year, as well as Henry. You have to pay more for futures than current year.
If a bid on Henry comes before 10, Freo could trade out 10 for another 2020 pick. Eg with Hawthorn.
If a bid comes after 10 then the 22 would have been gone anyway, and pick 40 would give a lot of the points towards paying for him.

Of course I’m hoping GWS wants to trade with Freo as it would be beneficial to both, but other teams could also offer up their future picks in a trade for pick 6, so that the pick isn’t used up on Green.

I don’t think it’s a good idea for GWS to trade with Melbourne or Adelaide . Or for Freo to trade with Melbourne or Carlton. The teams with picks just before their pick are bound to use extortion to force a trade massively in their favour.

If we finish similar to this year the trade would be 6 and 40 for 6,22,24 and 58, if we trade them next years first and 22 i would want their future 1st involved.

So 6+2020 1st for our 2020 1st + 22 with other picks involved favouring GWS slightly

 

[Clems Knee]

If we finish similar to this year the trade would be 6 and 40 for 6,22,24 and 58, if we trade them next years first and 22 i would want their future 1st involved.

So 6+2020 1st for our 2020 1st + 22 with other picks involved favouring GWS slightly

We are more likely to go up than down, because we are close to the bottom now anyway.
Similarly, GWS is more likely to go down than up, because they were almost at the top. So I reckon GWS finishing 6th and Freo finishing 10th in 2020 is quite likely.

Your trade could easily be 6 and 13 to Freo for 8 and 22 to GWS. GWS would easily be able to get a better deal than that.

In my trade it would be GWS get Green, 8 and 28 (both 2020)
and Freo get 6 and Henry and keep 7 and 10.

 

[Peel67skin]

The GC 2020 Pick 11 is a priority pick not a compensation pick.

I haven't read specifically on it, but I'd be surprised if it was tradeable this draft.

Despite the AFL announcing those concessions I can't see how a priority pick technically comes into existance before the end of the season it is meant to provide priority access for.

There is a few interview after the assitant package, journalist ask Evans about pick 11, he said GCS can trade it out. Either way I hope GWS do a deal with Fremantle, pick 15 and 20 got some good players available.