Vic Predict the outcome of the 2018 Victorian State Election

[Jascave]

If the Coalition loses the election, could we expect to see Matthew Guy face a leadership challenge for his position within the next two weeks?


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[Bombermania]

for an election that needs to be held no later than May 18? yeah, thats a safe bet

Just how long have you been around elections for? because I am telling you from experience that political strategies do not like taking voters to the polls during winter.

 

[Bombermania]

If the Coalition loses the election, could we expect to see Matthew Guy face a leadership challenge for his position within the next two weeks?


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Who could they go with, there isn't a clear standout.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Just how long have you been around elections for? because I am telling you from experience that political strategies do not like taking voters to the polls during winter.

again - THAT I 100% agree with

thats not what you said though - you said it was a historical fact people do vote against the incumbent when its bad weather

your winter sample is too small, and overshadowed by much bigger issues

my wife doesnt like me watching the F1 at 1am in the morning, but she isnt going to divorce me over it unless i have massively pissed her off about much bigger issues

you're playing rain up the same way it is in the USA and UK, where it does suppress voter turnout, and thus effect elections (off mem a UK fav lost purely on rain killing his turnout)

Can you name one australian election, where rain changed the result from the polling predictions?

 

[Bombermania]

again - THAT I 100% agree with

thats not what you said though - you said it was a historical fact people do vote against the incumbent when its bad weather

your winter sample is too small, and overshadowed by much bigger issues

my wife doesnt like me watching the F1 at 1am in the morning, but she isnt going to divorce me over it unless i have massively pissed her off about much bigger issues

you're playing rain up the same way it is in the USA and UK, where it does suppress voter turnout, and thus effect elections (off mem a UK fav lost purely on rain killing his turnout)

Can you name one australian election, where rain changed the result from the polling predictions?

The fact that there have only been three federal elections held in winter should tell you how political strategies view it, they are paid to workout the best way to win and they tend to shy away from holding winter elections.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

The fact that there have only been three federal elections held in winter should tell you how political strategies view it, they are paid to workout the best way to win and they tend to shy away from holding winter elections.

you dont think three year terms and aussies hating early elections has anything to do with it?

 

[Bombermania]

you dont think three year terms and aussies hating early elections has anything to do with it?

Only three federal elections held in winter, send an email to your political party (if you are a member of one) and ask them why their strategies shy away from holding federal elections in winter.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Only three federal elections held in winter, send an email to your political party (if you are a member of one) and ask them why their strategies shy away from holding federal elections in winter.

again, you are confusing not wanting to annoy people (your legit point) with the claim its a lock to change votes (your OP)

I dont need to talk to anyone to agree with the former. And ive been politically active and studied politics since the mid 80's

 

[Bombermania]

again, you are confusing not wanting to annoy people (your legit point) with the claim its a lock to change votes (your OP)

I dont need to talk to anyone to agree with the former. And ive been politically active and studied politics since the mid 80's

The theory is if you annoy the voters then they may vote against you, that is the theory, whether it holds or not is questionable but that is the theory, also if you remember the 1980s then you may remember the reluctance by some in 1987 when Hawke called a July election.

 

[Benny78]

Happy retirement present boomers. A majority Shorten government is what's in store for next year too

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

The other winter elections

11 July 1987
21 August 2010
2 July 2016

Only 1987 was a good result for the government.

https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/Australian_Electoral_History/hor_dates.htm

Debateable. The way I remember it, both Gillard and Turnbull were in strife heading into the election, with a loss of government in both 2010 and 2016 certainly in play.

The minority government of Gillard and the slender majority of Turnbull wasn't great for either, considering how both had swept into power under Rudd and Abbott three years earlier, but it could have been a lot worse for them.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

The fact that there were no winter federal elections held from 1943 to 1987 says something about how political strategies feel about the idea of holding winter elections.

The 2010 election result was largely the result of the fall out from Rudd v Gillard, the GFC had minimal impact on Australia at that time.

Wouldn't it be more about the parties finding volunteers to help out in the electorates on the day?

 

[Ned_Flanders]

The theory is if you annoy the voters then they may vote against you, that is the theory, whether it holds or not is questionable but that is the theory, also if you remember the 1980s then you may remember the reluctance by some in 1987 when Hawke called a July election.

Again, agree with this - this is what I've been saying

Big difference between "may" and "will". Saying people vote against the govt in bad weather is "will"

 

[Elroo]

Who could they go with, there isn't a clear standout.

O'Brien?

 

[nobbyiscool]

Whichever way you’re voting today, be it Labor, Green or Scumbag ()...

VOTE BELOW THE FRIGGEN LINE IN THE UPPER HOUSE!!!

I find our democratic model to be questionable at times, but it’s never worse than when it’s completely unrepresentative and parties with less than 2% public support can get a seat thanks to backroom deals.


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[Gavin Excell]

Ive noticed this past week or so quite a lot of ALP electronic advertising be it free to air tv or on every YouTube video you run.

Yet hardly heard a peep from the Libs

Is state labors war chest $$$ simply far greater than Liberals?

 

[Bad Horse]

Ive noticed this past week or so quite a lot of ALP electronic advertising be it free to air tv or on every YouTube video you run.

Yet hardly heard a peep from the Libs

Is state labors war chest $$$ simply far greater than Liberals?

Libs have put most into direct mail and robocalls. Ive been getting several robocalls and texts week. Landline and mobile.

 

[Donakebab]

Looking at the AEC site, the first winter federal election was 21 August 1943, that was a landslide defeat for then conservative government and stands to this day stands has the ALP's best result.

The other winter elections

11 July 1987
21 August 2010
2 July 2016

Only 1987 was a good result for the government.

https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/Australian_Electoral_History/hor_dates.htm

The date had little to nothing to do with the result in 1943, more so the fact that the coalition was a shambles at the time. The UAP was rudderless with Menzies stepping down in 1941, who had lost the support of his party after spending the bulk of his time in London white anting Churchill and bungling cables back to the war cabinet. The leadership passed to Billy Hughes, who was far too old to be PM again, especially during another World War. This pushed the leadership to the Country party leader Arthur Fadden, who couldn't hold a minority government together, lost a no confidence motion which saw the independents back Curtain, resulting in Labor governing for two years before the 1943 election was actually held.

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

Whichever way you’re voting today, be it Labor, Green or Scumbag ()...

VOTE BELOW THE FRIGGEN LINE IN THE UPPER HOUSE!!!

I find our democratic model to be questionable at times, but it’s never worse than when it’s completely unrepresentative and parties with less than 2% public support can get a seat thanks to backroom deals.


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Voted Labor for the first time in a state election in my 32 year voting history.

I voted above the line for the Euthanasia Party, come at me.

Walked the gauntlet into the polling station at Cowes Primary School, volunteers with their how to votes everywhere, including doubling up by the Liberals. They were the first as your walked up and the last as you walked in the door.

It was a far cry from what I've become accustomed to the last 7 or 8 years. I was living in outback WA so would wander down at anytime, have a chat with everyone manning the polling station, get marked off, vote, have another chat, wander over to the pool with the kids and have a swim. I actually had to queue for about 15 minutes today, in shit, freezing weather.

 

[nobbyiscool]

I voted above the line for the Euthanasia Party, come at me.

Just so long as you're comfortable knowing that your vote can, and probably will, end up with an anti-vax party, an anti-immigration party, or an anti-gun control party, or will elect some other 2-bit party that shares none of your beliefs... all because you wanted to vote for a single issue party - an issue that our government has already legislated to provide.

 

[Carn The Berries]

The cost to maintain would be a hell of a lot cheaper than the old guardrails. I did a job one day fixing them, spent about 3 hours on the guardrail repair, 5 minutes on the wire rope barrier then another hour on a smaller guardrail repair.

But how much more often do they need to be repaired? Arnco can cop a hit, bend a bit and still be functional... As soon as the wires loose tension they're useless!

 

[Gavin Excell]

$2.50 for a sausage is outrageous

 

[Carn The Berries]

Whichever way you’re voting today, be it Labor, Green or Scumbag ()...

VOTE BELOW THE FRIGGEN LINE IN THE UPPER HOUSE!!!

I find our democratic model to be questionable at times, but it’s never worse than when it’s completely unrepresentative and parties with less than 2% public support can get a seat thanks to backroom deals.


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Can not like this enough! Take the time, show your own initiative and put a number in any box. Yes it's a pain in the a** (will be interesting to see how large the ballot paper is!) but it's the way it should be done!

 

[Pessimistic]

Happy retirement present boomers. A majority Shorten government is what's in store for next year too

I'm sensing you thinking boomers wont like it, but cant think why. If its neg gearing surely most would already have an investment property. Labors policies are more pensioner friendly then the coalitions too.

Nobody loses, including those who think they do. the sad bit is having to wait half a year

 

[Carn The Berries]

Pretty low effort by the Labor candidates here in Bendigo in today's paper... Front page has a very moving speech from the UN Executive Director for Women as part of White Ribbon day and there is a bloody "Vote Labor" sticker plastered over the top of it (with the 2 candidates names in Bendigo East and Bendigo West, who both just happen to be women). To try and politicise a serious topic like domestic violence ON ELECTION DAY is up there with Mediscare in terms of low blows... The sticker actually covers up part of the text from the speech FFS!!!

Given how inept Matthew Guy is a leader and the Libs are at the moment in general I was on the fence with how I am going to vote later today. This has settled the matter. I can't recall anything a political party has done in a campaign that has made me this angry!!