Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

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Seppo said:
Final Siren are the ladder predictor and tips both automatically updating? I see the tips haven't updated for round 14 and interested to see if the ladder predictor takes into account the round 13 results yet.
Click to expand...

Seppo - If you press show details button you will see the round 13 results have been included.

Final Siren - How hard would it be to include a x day break advantage\disadvantage ?
e.g. if playing with a 8 day break you are a 5 point better team, and with a 6 day break you a 5 point worse team?
 
go_the_dockers said:
Seppo - If you press show details button you will see the round 13 results have been included.

Final Siren - How hard would it be to include a x day break advantage\disadvantage ?
e.g. if playing with a 8 day break you are a 5 point better team, and with a 6 day break you a 5 point worse team?
Click to expand...
That would modify his formula which is offence vs defence + home ground multiplier. Its not a power rankings type deal that usually accounts for finer grain details, such as injury, form runs, ground history etc. Who knows what affect it might have on the rankings but it would be a pretty big complication because you would need to consider travel, grounds and breaks, as its too simplistic to say 2 or 3, 6-day break games in a row
 
Seppo said:
Final Siren are the ladder predictor and tips both automatically updating? I see the tips haven't updated for round 14 and interested to see if the ladder predictor takes into account the round 13 results yet.
Click to expand...
On the interactive squiggle, the tips update midday Tuesdays (they hang around so you can compare what the squiggle thought would happen to what actually did). Everything else updates pretty much in real-time, as of last weekend. So within a few minutes of a match finishing, teams will move to a new squiggle position and the ladder predictor will change.
 
Round 13, 2014​

N3x7KfC.png


Sydney disappoint; win premiership

Before this round, the squiggle predictor had Hawthorn winning the flag. It held to that prediction right up until Sydney vs Port Adelaide. Then the Swans won by less than expected, at which point it flipped to tipping a Sydney flag.

This seems to make no sense. How can a team perform worse than expected, and then become flag favourite? But there is a logic to it that I thought was pretty fascinating, so here it is.

Little disclaimer first: This is not about the amazing predictive power of the squiggle. It actually doesn't matter how accurate you think the squiggle is. It's just about what happens when you look at footy purely in terms of probabilities.

So. The squiggle thinks the top three teams will probably be Sydney, Port Adelaide, and Hawthorn, in that order. It didn't see anything on the weekend to change its mind. So it continues to expect a Week 1 Qualifying Final between Port and Hawthorn, played in Adelaide. It rates the Hawks as a better team, but since it awards a 12-point advantage to home teams playing interstate sides, this is a tough game to call.

Before last Saturday night, it was tipping the Hawks to win by 2 points. Hawthorn then get a week off, a prelim against Fremantle at the MCG, which they win, and a grand final matchup against the Swans, which they also win.

But then Saturday night happened. The squiggle expected Sydney to beat Port Adelaide fairly comfortably: 98 - 71. The actual score was 98 - 94. The squiggle took two things from this: that Sydney's defence was a bit weaker than it thought, and Port Adelaide's attack was a bit stronger.

Not much of an adjustment; not enough to change the expected results of any matchup... except one. It is just enough to tip the balance of probabilities for that Week 1 Qualifying Final from a Hawthorn win to the Power.

Of course, we're talking about win likelihoods somewhere around 54%. If you played that game ten times, you'd still expect it to break 5-5. But you've got to tip someone. And 54% is better than 50%. So now the tip is Port.

And that changes everything. The Power get the week off and the home prelim, whereas the Hawks (after seeing off their semi-final opponent), have to travel to do battle with Sydney. They're more likely to beat the Swans in Melbourne, but more likely to lose in the Harbour City. So out they go: eliminated in Week 3.

Now Sydney's Grand Final opponent is Port Adelaide, not Hawthorn. Freed from the disadvantage of having to take on a Melbourne-based team at the MCG, the Swans win comfortably, 98 to 75.
 
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A big squiggly step backwards for NMFC this week :(
 

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Purple Suit said:
Or that we are keeping our powder dry for the end of the year. The time you really want to be firing.
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This x1000
Epilegs said:
Could you argue that Fremantle has reached their best for 2014 if they haven't really moved by now?
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We will hit our straps in the last 4 games where we play Hawthorn, Geelong and You Blokes
 
Epilegs said:
WE ARE ABOUT TO TOUCH THE MIGHTY HAWKS.

BRACE YOURSELVES, FELLOW PORT ADELAIDE FLOGS!!
Click to expand...

Lets see how Port Adelaide go at the MCG with the likes of Roughead, Mitchell, Gibson, Whitecross, Lake, Spangher and Rioli. The thing is we only lost to Port Adelaide by 14 points at Adelaide Oval minus seven best 22 players missing, while Port Adelaide on the other hand had only Tom Jonas who didn't play and Port Adelaide could only manage a 14 point win despite being at full strength. In other words, Port Adelaide will be very lucky to near a full strength Hawthorn.
 
WWSD said:
Lets see how Port Adelaide go at the MCG with the likes of Roughead, Mitchell, Gibson, Whitecross, Lake, Spangher and Rioli. The thing is we only lost to Port Adelaide by 14 points at Adelaide Oval minus seven best 22 players missing, while Port Adelaide on the other hand had only Tom Jonas who didn't play and Port Adelaide could only manage a 14 point win despite being at full strength. In other words, Port Adelaide will be very lucky to get within 5 goals of a full strength Hawthorn.
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C'mon man, they deserve respect. This thing isn't about 1 game.
 
Rioli magic said:
C'mon man, they deserve respect. This thing isn't about 1 game.
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I'm not saying I don't respect them, but I doubt Port Adelaide can beat a full strength Hawthorn team in a final in Melbourne.
 
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