Vic dominates the depth, but top end talent is all that would be making the sides for the major states. And there its probably closer. Yes, Vic would win far more often than not. Population alone would see to that. But WA might give them a shake from time to time.The talent isn’t close.
Look at the last draft class.
WA is well behind in grass roots.
NSW has a couple and QLD has a handful of gems but lack numbers.
The AFL need to be working harder on non Vic pathways for younger talent to come through, and it seems they may have forgone SA and WA in recent years to help get the franchise clubs some home grown talent.
After years of looking at a two tier comp, I may well look at three.
Div1: Vic, WA, SA
Div2: NSW, Qld
Div3: Tas, NT
Anyone who doesn't qualify for any of the represented jurisdictions can qualify via the first state they played club football outside the "formative years" as defined in the last proper state of origin games.
ACT is NOT part of NSW, no matter how much AFL HQ like to pretend Canberra is part of western Sydney. And, yes, I know the NSW team that beat Vic in 1990 was really a NSW-ACT team. Nor would ACT stick within 20 goals of NT.
Getting clubs to agree to anything is nigh on impossible though, so everything is always only going to be thought bubbles.
So, here's an extra thought bubble people won't like. Hold the group games in a "lightning premiership" format of a carnival with rotating hosts, then the final and promotion-relegation playoffs as full length games.
e.g. Scrap the BS "gather round" (won't happen, of course, because broadcast dollars for a round are much higher than for an origin carnival - the opposite of in Rugby League) and in the first revised SoO carnival in Adelaide play 10 minute halves of:
Vic v WA
Tas v NT
Vic v SA
NSW v Qld
SA v WA
Division phase done and dusted inside about 4 hours of Friday night prime time, with no team playing consecutive matches.
Full length, or maybe slightly reduced length:
Saturday afternoon - LoserDiv2 v WinnerDiv3 (e.g. Qld v Tas), Norwood- winner to division 2 next time
Saturday night - 3rdDiv1 v WillnerDiv2 (e.g. SA v NSW), Adelaide Oval - winner to division 1 next time
Sunday - 1stDiv1 v 2ndDiv1 (e.g. Vic v WA) - winner wins
Rinse and repeat every three or four years or something, so it doesn't become too stale for players and fans.
Is that too much for players in a single weekend? Maybe. if so, play the division phase over two days and longer format, and then the final/promotion-playoff weekend a few weeks later.