Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Final Siren]

Final is there a way we can see the previous round's tips? I tried going back to older rounds but tips didnt change

There isn't, no. That requires a bit of work, because when I built the interactive squiggle I didn't make tipping a big part of it. But I think now it would be interesting to be able to roll through a season and see how the tips & ladder predictor changed over time.

Right now I can tell you that ISTATE-91:12, the algorithm used in the main squiggle, is on 74 tips, which is 68.5% accuracy, which is good but not great. The slightly-more-complicated-but-more-sensible ISTATEVH-91:12 is on 76 tips. The best algorithms this year have been the venue-based ones I mentioned here: VENUE-96:70 is currently on 80 tips.

Just having a look now at Round 14, the major difference between the ISTATE tips and the VENUE tips is that VENUE tips Adelaide while ISTATE tips Essendon. That's because ISTATE blindly awards Essendon a 12-point advantage for hosting an interstate side, while VENUE doesn't think Essendon play especially well at Docklands. (The Bombers like it better than Adelaide, but not by much.)

 

[Epilegs]

Lets see how Port Adelaide go at the MCG with the likes of Roughead, Mitchell, Gibson, Whitecross, Lake, Spangher and Rioli. The thing is we only lost to Port Adelaide by 14 points at Adelaide Oval minus seven best 22 players missing, while Port Adelaide on the other hand had only Tom Jonas who didn't play and Port Adelaide could only manage a 14 point win despite being at full strength. In other words, Port Adelaide will be very lucky to near a full strength Hawthorn.

Settle down. I wasn't initiating a henderson-measuring contest.

Port is getting closer to the Hawks on the squiggle thingo. That is all. If it upsets you, take it up with the OP

 

[The Swans Blog]

I think port has played some of the other top teams at opportune times when they've missed key players without really missing anyone themselves. That's just good consistency and player management and some good injury luck. It'll be interesting to see how they go without Gray for a few weeks.

 

[MF]

I think port has played some of the other top teams at opportune times when they've missed key players without really missing anyone themselves. That's just good consistency and player management and some good injury luck. It'll be interesting to see how they go without Gray for a few weeks.

Although we've had a few injury concerns you could also say that we got Hawthorn, Freo, Geelong and Port at ideal times. Not that it would have done much for Geelong.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

I think port has played some of the other top teams at opportune times when they've missed key players without really missing anyone themselves. That's just good consistency and player management and some good injury luck. It'll be interesting to see how they go without Gray for a few weeks.

That goes for all sides.

 

[raman]

I think port has played some of the other top teams at opportune times when they've missed key players without really missing anyone themselves. That's just good consistency and player management and some good injury luck. It'll be interesting to see how they go without Gray for a few weeks.

Huh?

 

[bomberclifford]

Now Sydney's Grand Final opponent is Port Adelaide, not Hawthorn. Freed from the disadvantage of having to take on a Melbourne-based team at the MCG, the Swans win comfortably, 98 to 75.

Eerily similar prediction to the weekends game.

 

[bomberclifford]

We'll find out in the finals. Happy to be proven wrong.

I very much doubt you would be.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Huh?

It's a hypothetical as he's your most important player in the team. It's the same with Tippet, he's probably our most important player because of he does when he doesn't have the ball. His presence on the field opens the field of play up for the Swans. Without him, every team double or triple teams Franklin.

The stats on the weekend were saying that he's the highest ranked player in the AFL for score involvements.

 

[Papa G]

It's a hypothetical as he's your most important player in the team. It's the same with Tippet, he's probably our most important player because of he does when he doesn't have the ball. His presence on the field opens the field of play up for the Swans. Without him, every team double or triple teams Franklin.

The stats on the weekend were saying that he's the highest ranked player in the AFL for score involvements.

So you're effectively saying if you had to chose between Tippett and Franklin, you'd chose Balfours Boy?

 

[cryptor]

It's a hypothetical as he's your most important player in the team. It's the same with Tippet, he's probably our most important player because of he does when he doesn't have the ball. His presence on the field opens the field of play up for the Swans. Without him, every team double or triple teams Franklin.

The stats on the weekend were saying that he's the highest ranked player in the AFL for score involvements.

That seems highly unlikely given how many games he's missed. Even if it's on average I would be doubting it.

 

[raman]

That seems highly unlikely given how many games he's missed.

None?

 

[The Swans Blog]

So you're effectively saying if you had to chose between Tippett and Franklin, you'd chose Balfours Boy?

Both or Tippet

That seems highly unlikely given how many games he's missed. Even if it's on average I would be doubting it.

You misunderstand the context - I was referring to Gray. If he was to miss a week or two for whatever reason, suspension of injury, Port would struggle. He's at the very top end of players this season that have had the most score impact. When you take that sort of player out of the team, and this is where the context really played apart, ala. Tippet, then the team struggles. Tippet doesn't hit the score board as much as Franklin, have as many shots, take as many marks. But he is undoubtedly the most important forward player for us because of what he allows the rest of the players to do around him. He's a massive lump of a man who can deal with 2 defenders. Take him out of the lineup and lo-and-behold, the Swans struggled for a while scoring against the Port when they shut us down, Franklin frequented by 3 gorillas chasing bananas.

 

[The_Sheek]

I think port has played some of the other top teams at opportune times when they've missed key players without really missing anyone themselves. That's just good consistency and player management and some good injury luck. It'll be interesting to see how they go without Gray for a few weeks.

It would*

Almost gave me a heart attack

 

[The Swans Blog]

It would*

Almost gave me a heart attack

It will (present & future, predicted/expected) and It would (future, subjective, predictive) tense, got my grammar lesson for today

 

[cryptor]

None?

Both or Tippet

You misunderstand the context - I was referring to Gray. If he was to miss a week or two for whatever reason, suspension of injury, Port would struggle. He's at the very top end of players this season that have had the most score impact. When you take that sort of player out of the team, and this is where the context really played apart, ala. Tippet, then the team struggles. Tippet doesn't hit the score board as much as Franklin, have as many shots, take as many marks. But he is undoubtedly the most important forward player for us because of what he allows the rest of the players to do around him. He's a massive lump of a man who can deal with 2 defenders. Take him out of the lineup and lo-and-behold, the Swans struggled for a while scoring against the Port when they shut us down, Franklin frequented by 3 gorillas chasing bananas.

You're right, I thought you were referring to Tippett.

Stats I found indicate that Gray and Breust are leading the comp in score involvements which is what I'd expect.

 

[The Swans Blog]

You're right, I thought you were referring to Tippett.

Stats I found indicate that Gray and Breust are leading the comp in score involvements which is what I'd expect.

I rate Gray far higher than I do Breust, primarily because Breust is a down-hill skier who's easily shut out of the game by a decent defender, eg. Nick Smith or Malceski or Rhyce Shaw, and he barely has the stamina or physicality to survive in midfield. However, Gray can play forward or for prolonged periods in the midfield.

 

[cryptor]

I rate Gray far higher than I do Breust, primarily because Breust is a down-hill skier who's easily shut out of the game by a decent defender, eg. Nick Smith or Malceski or Rhyce Shaw, and he barely has the stamina or physicality to survive in midfield. However, Gray can play forward or for prolonged periods in the midfield.

LOL you can rate Gray higher if you like. He's a very good player. But Breust is far from being a down-hill skier.

 

[Roo Lives Again]

Port fans think every non port player is a spud...and there's is a champion. That's just how they work.

 

[TheWoodenSlug]

Port fans think every non port player is a spud...and there's is a champion. That's just how they work.

To be fair, that just sounds like every supporter of every team, particularly on BigFooty.

 

[The Swans Blog]

LOL you can rate Gray higher if you like. He's a very good player. But Breust is far from being a down-hill skier.

He's a single trick pony in a world of fraudsters. If he was a car salesman he'd be shit.

If he is rated as AA material id chew off my leg and feed it to my cat. There is no way in hell that he's better than Gray, let alone Wingard, McGlynn, Ballantyne, Motlop and a bunch other players I can't quite recall. They're all similar, play similar positions, and have similar impact on their team. However, I would pick everyone of those players before breust, because when the going gets tough, you need more than chicken shit shirkers to stand up.

 

[Papa G]

[charcoaloo Lives Again, post: 33605050, member: 132823"]Port fans think every non port player is a spud...and there's is a champion. That's just how they work.[/QUOTE]

To be fair, that just sounds like every supporter of every team, particularly on BigFooty.

Add the fact it wasn't a Port supporter calling Breust a downhill skier, then you have your typical crows newbie intellect.

 

[WWSD]

He's a single trick pony in a world of fraudsters. If he was a car salesman he'd be shit.

If he is rated as AA material id chew off my leg and feed it to my cat. There is no way in hell that he's better than Gray, let alone Wingard, McGlynn, Ballantyne, Motlop and a bunch other players I can't quite recall. They're all similar, play similar positions, and have similar impact on their team. However, I would pick everyone of those players before breust, because when the going gets tough, you need more than chicken shit shirkers to stand up.

I have no issue with you rating others ahead of him, but this 'downhill skier' stuff in just nonsense. He plays well against the top teams and stats prove that.

Round 3 vs Fremantle: 24 disposals, 7 marks, 4 tackles, 3 goals
Round 4 vs Gold Coast: 20 disposals, 2 marks, 3 tackles, 3 goals, 1 behind
Round 5 vs Geelong: 13 disposals, 2 marks, 2 tackles, 3 goals, 2 behinds
Round 8 vs Sydney: 13 disposals, 5 marks, 3 goals
Round 10 vs Port Adelaide: 14 disposals, 2 marks, 4 tackles, 3 goals

He's kicked 31 goals, 4 behinds this year = 88.6%

Not sure what more he has to do to justify his standing as a small forward

 

[cryptor]

He's a single trick pony in a world of fraudsters. If he was a car salesman he'd be shit.

If he is rated as AA material id chew off my leg and feed it to my cat. There is no way in hell that he's better than Gray, let alone Wingard, McGlynn, Ballantyne, Motlop and a bunch other players I can't quite recall. They're all similar, play similar positions, and have similar impact on their team. However, I would pick everyone of those players before breust, because when the going gets tough, you need more than chicken shit shirkers to stand up.

You obviously have no idea. Breust leads non-tall forwards for goals kicked and he leads the league for goal assists. Not scoring assists or score involvements - goal assists. Good chance he touches the ball inside 50 and he either kicks a goal or he'll give it off to someone else who will. And as WWSD has pointed out he's stood up in all our biggest games so far this season.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Chunky you are way off man Bruest is absolute quality would have him ahead of any other small forward.